All Aug 2013 485 APPROVALS & DISCUSSION - report here with details

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Originally Posted by indiani

sorry, I should have been more clear. I meant "not approved " as they just aren't reviewed either because the visas are exhausted or they just don't get time to process or other reason ( not including the ones which are denied or RFE sent).

The reason why I am interested in the above prediction is to calculate my risk of not getting GC this fiscal. I am confident that once they review mine almost certainly they might approve but what I am worried about is the fact that they " never get chance to review mine".

I am hoping its less than 10%.

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indiani,

I tend to agree with vizcard.

FWIW, as I mentioned previously, a quick look at USCIS Inventory figures for October suggested that around 2k cases with PD that were current the previous FY remain. Of those, it is impossible to say how many might be new cases that would not have been adjudicated anyway and a proportion of the earliest cases might be "dead" cases.

Gurus,

I need some advice. My PD of Dec 2007 is current in August and yet to get approval. This forum is calm and mature like always, but reading chatter on other forums I'm getting worried about visas getting over, after September later PDs getting approved, etc.,. I dont want to wait for another year since I want to settle at one place to ensure continuity for kids education.

The colleagues I spoke to advised me to reach out to congressman immediately, one person contacted congressman on first day becoming current and got approved soon (this was few years back) and another person waited for 3 months and after nothing happened he contacted and got his GC in 2-3 weeks and that was what the congressman office had told him (this was last year). I know its sounding like the chain emails, I wrote the letter 100 times and I won lottery and someone did not write and lost his job... :-) but jokes apart its true and I know these two people from last 4-5 years.

In your experience does it help to raise SR and/or contact congressman? is there any downside?

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Originally Posted by goforgreen

Gurus,

I need some advice. My PD of Dec 2007 is current in August and yet to get approval. This forum is calm and mature like always, but reading chatter on other forums I'm getting worried about visas getting over, after September later PDs getting approved, etc.,. I dont want to wait for another year since I want to settle at one place to ensure continuity for kids education.

The colleagues I spoke to advised me to reach out to congressman immediately, one person contacted congressman on first day becoming current and got approved soon (this was few years back) and another person waited for 3 months and after nothing happened he contacted and got his GC in 2-3 weeks and that was what the congressman office had told him (this was last year). I know its sounding like the chain emails, I wrote the letter 100 times and I won lottery and someone did not write and lost his job... :-) but jokes apart its true and I know these two people from last 4-5 years.

In your experience does it help to raise SR and/or contact congressman? is there any downside?

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There is no downside. I would raise the SR first and then contact the Congressman with that info as well.

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Originally Posted by goforgreen

Gurus,

I need some advice. My PD of Dec 2007 is current in August and yet to get approval. This forum is calm and mature like always, but reading chatter on other forums I'm getting worried about visas getting over, after September later PDs getting approved, etc.,. I dont want to wait for another year since I want to settle at one place to ensure continuity for kids education.

The colleagues I spoke to advised me to reach out to congressman immediately, one person contacted congressman on first day becoming current and got approved soon (this was few years back) and another person waited for 3 months and after nothing happened he contacted and got his GC in 2-3 weeks and that was what the congressman office had told him (this was last year). I know its sounding like the chain emails, I wrote the letter 100 times and I won lottery and someone did not write and lost his job... :-) but jokes apart its true and I know these two people from last 4-5 years.

In your experience does it help to raise SR and/or contact congressman? is there any downside?

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I think there are many including me in the process of contacting the congressman's office, calling L2 or opening SR might just confirm what you already know that your case is "being reviewed".( I already spoke to L2)

As I mentioned in one of my previous post, the only people they( USCIS) are accountable to are representatives. while some might say that we will get approval whether we contact congressman or not, it certainly will not have any downside.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

indiani,

I tend to agree with vizcard.

FWIW, as I mentioned previously, a quick look at USCIS Inventory figures for October suggested that around 2k cases with PD that were current the previous FY remain. Of those, it is impossible to say how many might be new cases that would not have been adjudicated anyway and a proportion of the earliest cases might be "dead" cases.

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Thanks for the data, I think the DD and VB ( coming out in next week) might give more clues about where things are.

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Originally Posted by vizcard

Indiani,
Does it matter? Like I said in my previous post, ppl need to stop overreacting to what's happening. These are "micro trends" if we can even call them that. At the very least they are not indicative of what really will happen. It's just too small a sample set. My point is all this stress is not healthy. I understand the feeling of helplessness but if you feel the need to do something, reach out to your Congressman.

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well vizcard, IT does matter if we are able to obtain data, which folks like spec can do. you are entitled to your opinion that I am over-reacting ( but I do not feel I am), if I could just sit back and wait and carry on with my life, perhaps I wouldn't even bother to visit any forums but unfortunately in my case the stakes are very high and risk calculation helps making decisions,

your point that its too small a sample set is well taken but at this point that's all we have .

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Originally Posted by indiani

( coming out in next week)

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Next week? I think both will come out on Friday.

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Originally Posted by indiani

well vizcard, IT does matter if we are able to obtain data, which folks like spec can do. you are entitled to your opinion that I am over-reacting ( but I do not feel I am), if I could just sit back and wait and carry on with my life, perhaps I wouldn't even bother to visit any forums but unfortunately in my case the stakes are very high and risk calculation helps making decisions,

your point that its too small a sample set is well taken but at this point that's all we have .

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I don't know your personal situation so I can't comment on that. The simple answer is that you look at historic inventory data to get some sense of that. But my point is that you cannot control those dynamics. You should focus on what you can control.
- talk to your congressman
- raise a SR
- make contingency plans based on the 3 possible outcomes (get it this FY, get it Q1 FY14, get it Q4 FY14)

As far as going to forums, I come here for the analysis and insight but a big reason to be part of a community that is going through similar issues. I also go to forums of my fav sports teams. I can't control how the team will play or if they win or lose but it's a lot of fun to be part of a group of die hard fans.

I recieved card production email today for primary as well as derivative
PD 19th dec 2007, RFE on june 14th 2013

Thanks for all your inputs

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Originally Posted by Teja9999

I recieved card production email today for primary as well as derivative
PD 19th dec 2007, RFE on june 14th 2013

Thanks for all your inputs

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Congratulations Teja . Enjoy green

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Originally Posted by indiani

well vizcard, IT does matter if we are able to obtain data, which folks like spec can do. you are entitled to your opinion that I am over-reacting ( but I do not feel I am), if I could just sit back and wait and carry on with my life, perhaps I wouldn't even bother to visit any forums but unfortunately in my case the stakes are very high and risk calculation helps making decisions,

your point that its too small a sample set is well taken but at this point that's all we have .

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Indiani looks like they are touching RFE cases . Good luck

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Originally Posted by Teja9999

I recieved card production email today for primary as well as derivative
PD 19th dec 2007, RFE on june 14th 2013

Thanks for all your inputs

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Teja9999,

Congratulations!

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Originally Posted by Teja9999

I recieved card production email today for primary as well as derivative
PD 19th dec 2007, RFE on june 14th 2013

Thanks for all your inputs

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Congrats!!!

I was expecting more people giving the good news by now.

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Originally Posted by Teja9999

I recieved card production email today for primary as well as derivative
PD 19th dec 2007, RFE on june 14th 2013

Thanks for all your inputs

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Congratulations Teja!!!

Congratulations Teja
Can I ask if you had ported from Eb3 ?

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Originally Posted by IJune05

Congratulations Teja
Can I ask if you had ported from Eb3 ?

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According to Trackitt, the answer is no.

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Received approval for both, EB2 dec 19th 2007, no porting , mass rfe on june 14th

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Originally Posted by Teja9999

I recieved card production email today for primary as well as derivative
PD 19th dec 2007, RFE on june 14th 2013

Thanks for all your inputs

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Congrats Teja enjoy the green in hand :)

TSC approvals are less compared to NSC. Also we know that TSC handles more cases than NSC.

Less approvals from TSC. Is it good for next bulletin?. This will lead CO to think numbers might get wasted if he does not move dates ahead. I know that it will generate random approvals depends on luck again. Gurus any comments.

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Originally Posted by pdmay2008

TSC approvals are less compared to NSC. Also we know that TSC handles more cases than NSC.

Less approvals from TSC. Is it good for next bulletin?. This will lead CO to think numbers might get wasted if he does not move dates ahead. I know that it will generate random approvals depends on luck again. Gurus any comments.

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I do think that the next date movement is already set, except final touches. Those final touches could only vary very little as current demand is known to CO. IMO, Nebraska approving very high number of interfile cases is a strategic move.

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Originally Posted by MATT2012

I do think that the next date movement is already set, except final touches. Those final touches could only vary very little as current demand is known to CO. IMO, Nebraska approving very high number of interfile cases is a strategic move.

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What is this strategy behind approving more interfiled cases?

Matt could it be that interfiled cases with older PDs are getting approved and that NSC might have disproportionately higher interfiled cases compared to TSC resulting in disproportionate approvals?

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Originally Posted by MATT2012

I do think that the next date movement is already set, except final touches. Those final touches could only vary very little as current demand is known to CO. IMO, Nebraska approving very high number of interfile cases is a strategic move.

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Originally Posted by fountainhead

What is this strategy behind approving more interfiled cases?

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Nebraska's ratio of interfile cases is high, I could not find any other logical reason other than to help CO with the next month date movement. Within Nebraska center I expected to have an higher ratio when compared to the Texas ratio because Nebraska approved more cases last fiscal, but not as high as we are seeing in trackitt. The other scenario is, we were wrong with interfile estimates, that will seriously affect next months movement. But as Spec pointed out in one of his posts, it is too early for the overall pattern to form, especially with the approval slowdown in TSC.

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Originally Posted by fountainhead

What is this strategy behind approving more interfiled cases?

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The strategy might be to avoid retrogression into 2005/2006 etc.

Most of the interfile cases have older PDs and therefore it makes sense to clear them prior to the cases with later PDs. The CO might want to ensure that everyone with PD before 2007 is approved, so that eventually when the visa numbers run out the EB2I date stays somewhere in mid 2007. It makes sense to give approvals based on PD anyways.

Hi Q,

Yes, But 60:40 split between Interfiles: Direct is very high. The older PD logic is correct. But as per Visa allocation process document, latest by August 1st all cases in DD until Jan01,2008 may have been allocated a visa. Considering time for approval of interfile cases equal to direct cases, there should be a higher number of direct cases approved. if I consider all Interfiles were in Demand( I don't), it should be 1:2(interfiles: Direct) , going by 2500 cases before 2007 and 5000+ cases in 2007. Even with 5000 porting approvals between Aug and Sep, the over all ratio should only be 1.25: 2, as of now the overall ratio is 1:1 . I am sincerely hoping by next week or so more individual update trackitt and we get some reasonable ratios.

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Originally Posted by Teja9999

I recieved card production email today for primary as well as derivative
PD 19th dec 2007, RFE on june 14th 2013

Thanks for all your inputs

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Congrattts Teja... You surely are looking forward to a thrilling weekend...