EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

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Originally Posted by pch053

I agree with all the explanation but just a minor point. Didn't the visa dates move by ~2 months from Aug - Sep'10 bulletin? I see that EB2-I visa date was 1st March'06 in Aug'10 and 8th May'06 in Sep'10. The reason I was checking into this is to gauge whether USCIS moves the dates for most of the spillovers in the 1st 2 bulletins of the last quarter itself or not.

Thanks!

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You are correct that the movement in the Sep bulletin was 2 months and a week but it had ~ 6K of EB I/C Traffic, so the movement in terms of numbers was not too bad we were passing through a dense zone.

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Originally Posted by bieber

so, if you are waiting to file 485, what DOS does is kind of irrelevant as long as there is spillover we will get a chance sometime in next fy.

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Yes, I am waiting to file 485. With a PD of 02/2008, I might need a mid-sized spillover to reach that goal.
If you notice, most of my questions/comments/queries are more about what happen in FY 2012 than what would happen in July.
As someone had pointed out, in this process all our thoughts/worries and hopes, revolve around our PDs.

There is no precedent for this kind of situation. Many people including me are waiting for what steps DOS/USCIS will take to build the pipeline once their Demand Data shows '0' for EB2IC. A possible distinct precedent is that last year for a family based category they advanced the dates by 2 years (DID NOT MAKE IT CURRENT) and then retrogessed.

Many theories/possibilities are floating around:

1. DOS will make the dates current to build the pipeline.
2. DOS will follow the family example from last year. Advance by 1+ years to have enough applications for FY 2012. Retrogess in Q1 FY 2012.
3. DOS will advance dates in a controlled manner (2/3 months during Q1/Q2 FY2012) and once they enough applications will retrogess.

We will only know in future which option they will go with. Option 1 above may be highly unlikely since DOS/USCIS may not want to repeat the July 2007 fiasco.

Good Luck!
S

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Originally Posted by ChampU

Thanks Spec!
If the visa number allocation and PD movement is entirely driven by the DoS and the USCIS acts as the funnel for the immigration process, what happens when the established inventory at the USCIS is depleted? And as a matter of policy, what would happen if this situation arises in Q1/Q2 of 2012?

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Nice summary SKpanda. I think #2 is more likely. #1 is next & #3 is least likely.

The reason being USCIS and DOS do not have such fine operations to move dates in a fine manner such as #3. So that leaves #1 & #2. #1 is a bit extreme. So #2 is more likely.

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Originally Posted by skpanda

There is no precedent for this kind of situation. Many people including me are waiting for what steps DOS/USCIS will take to build the pipeline once their Demand Data shows '0' for EB2IC. A possible distinct precedent is that last year for a family based category they advanced the dates by 2 years (DID NOT MAKE IT CURRENT) and then retrogessed.

Many theories/possibilities are floating around:

1. DOS will make the dates current to build the pipeline.
2. DOS will follow the family example from last year. Advance by 1+ years to have enough applications for FY 2012. Retrogess in Q1 FY 2012.
3. DOS will advance dates in a controlled manner (2/3 months during Q1/Q2 FY2012) and once they enough applications will retrogess.

We will only know in future which option they will go with. Option 1 above may be highly unlikely since DOS/USCIS may not want to repeat the July 2007 fiasco.

Good Luck!
S

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Originally Posted by tanu_75

Thanks veni. Its hard to keep this purely academic but will try :) Very good insight. Can you expand on the family vb movement. I looked at the vb's from jun 2010 to jan 2011 and noticed a lot of movement in f2a till dec followed by retrogression of 2 years. Are you referring to this and any idea on how much movement was made relative to i130?

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tanu_75,
For FB we do not have data availability by country(like PERM for EB). But USCIS dashboard data shows that USCIS processed about half a million i130 applications between April 2009 and April 2010, and the new receipts are kind of flat during the same period. So F2A PD for most of the countries moved from APR 2006 in March 2010 Bulletin to Jan 2010 by September 2010 bulletin. DOS has provided the following explanation for this rapid movement over 6-7 month period.

"Family-sponsored: During the past fifteen months, the level of demand for numbers in the Family-sponsored preference categories has been very low. As a result, the cut-off dates for most Family preference categories have been advancing at a very rapid pace, in an attempt to generate demand so that the annual numerical limits may be fully utilized. If demand for numbers should begin to materialize cut-off date movements may begin to slow or stop."

Coming back to EB cases, we know that USCIS got enough demand for FY 2010, and if EB2I&C PD move any where closer to August 2007, they will get an additional 6-7k PWMB.

USCIS may not be able to estimate FY 2012 demand for all EB categories until end of Q2 for 2012. And also beginning FY 2012 (Oct 2011) they are going to have country/quarterly limitations, in-addition porting cases will be added to pending EB2I&C demand.

So technically there is no need for USCIS to suggest/request/recommend DOS to push EB2I&C dates beyond August 2007 for this year!

veni

I agree that technically there may not be a need to actually move dates beyond Aug 2007. I think its going to be very close.

However as per dates movement goes my understanding is that USCIS never really asks or even coordinates with DoS in terms of dates movement. Its solely DoS decision. Right?

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Originally Posted by veni001

tanu_75,
For FB we do not have data availability by country(like PERM for EB). But USCIS dashboard data shows that USCIS processed about half a million i130 applications between April 2009 and April 2010, and the new receipts are kind of flat during the same period. So F2A PD for most of the countries moved from APR 2006 in March 2010 Bulletin to Jan 2010 by September 2010 bulletin. DOS has provided the following explanation for this rapid movement over 6-7 month period.

"Family-sponsored: During the past fifteen months, the level of demand for numbers in the Family-sponsored preference categories has been very low. As a result, the cut-off dates for most Family preference categories have been advancing at a very rapid pace, in an attempt to generate demand so that the annual numerical limits may be fully utilized. If demand for numbers should begin to materialize cut-off date movements may begin to slow or stop."

Coming back to EB cases, we know that USCIS got enough demand for FY 2010, and if EB2I&C PD move any where closer to August 2007, they will get an additional 6-7k PWMB.

USCIS may not be able to estimate FY 2012 demand for all EB categories until end of Q2 for 2012. And also beginning FY 2012 (Oct 2011) they are going to have country/quarterly limitations, in-addition porting cases will be added to pending EB2I&C demand.

So technically there is no need for USCIS to suggest/request/recommend DOS to push EB2I&C dates beyond August 2007 for this year!

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

veni

I agree that technically there may not be a need to actually move dates beyond Aug 2007. I think its going to be very close.

However as per dates movement goes my understanding is that USCIS never really asks or even coordinates with DoS in terms of dates movement. Its solely DoS decision. Right?

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Q,
Which is true prior to July 2007 fiasco, but not any more!

Please check this out....

Collaboration with DOS

"USCIS works with DOS more closely than ever to exchange information that is critical for managing visa allocation and for targeting future production efforts. We are now in weekly contact with the Chief of DOS’s Visa Unit to communicate current inventories per country and preference class to better determine each month’s visa bulletin. DOS provides regular updates to USCIS on past visa number usage and remaining numeric allocations per country and preference class. DOS also shares its forecast for priority date movement in upcoming visa bulletins so that USCIS can adjust production in advance for maximum visa number usage.

USCIS and DOS are also working together on a plan to forward all approved family-based visa petitions to DOS, including those where the petitioner indicates the beneficiary will apply for adjustment of status in the United States. This will enhance the ability of DOS to accurately forecast demand for visa numbers and more precisely manage the establishment of priority dates to meter the intake of applications for adjustment of status to match visa availability."

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Originally Posted by veni001

tanu_75,
For FB we do not have data availability by country(like PERM for EB). But USCIS dashboard data shows that USCIS processed about half a million i130 applications between April 2009 and April 2010, and the new receipts are kind of flat during the same period. So F2A PD for most of the countries moved from APR 2006 in March 2010 Bulletin to Jan 2010 by September 2010 bulletin. DOS has provided the following explanation for this rapid movement over 6-7 month period.

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So they have shown that they won't make it current and would rather throttle. I think that will be the case going forward.

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Originally Posted by veni001

Coming back to EB cases, we know that USCIS got enough demand for FY 2010, and if EB2I&C PD move any where closer to August 2007, they will get an additional 6-7k PWMB.

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They have enough, but depending on how many visas come through they may have just about enough. If that's the case, there may be a tendency to err on the safe side and push the dates out further. Depends on how much spillover happens I think.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

veni

I agree that technically there may not be a need to actually move dates beyond Aug 2007. I think its going to be very close.

However as per dates movement goes my understanding is that USCIS never really asks or even coordinates with DoS in terms of dates movement. Its solely DoS decision. Right?

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Yes, I think it could be a close call. If they decide to move beyond July 2007 then I think it'll be around Mar/Apr 2008 (I hope), but they could decide to end around Jul 2007. Quite close to call this and they may just choose to wait till next year to open the floodgates (screwing us post Jul 2007ers) but that's a recipe to waste visas and also very irresponsible to do when the backlog is so high.

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Originally Posted by tanu_75

So they have shown that they won't make it current and would rather throttle. I think that will be the case going forward.



They have enough, but depending on how many visas come through they may have just about enough. If that's the case, there may be a tendency to err on the safe side and push the dates out further. Depends on how much spillover happens I think.


Yes, I think it could be a close call. If they decide to move beyond July 2007 then I think it'll be around Mar/Apr 2008 (I hope), but they could decide to end around Jul 2007. Quite close to call this and they may just choose to wait till next year to open the floodgates (screwing us post Jul 2007ers) but that's a recipe to waste visas and also very irresponsible to do when the backlog is so high.

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tanu_75,
You are correct, how much more SOFAD is the key for PD movement for Jul-Aug-Sept. AS long as EB2I&C PD moves to June/July 2007 the chances of VISA wastage is minimal. Also as Spec & others pointed some of the OCT approvals are possibly from prior year numbers, so it is safe to assume USCIS may not waste VISAS this year or in the coming years.

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Originally Posted by tanu_75

So they have shown that they won't make it current and would rather throttle. I think that will be the case going forward.



They have enough, but depending on how many visas come through they may have just about enough. If that's the case, there may be a tendency to err on the safe side and push the dates out further. Depends on how much spillover happens I think.


Yes, I think it could be a close call. If they decide to move beyond July 2007 then I think it'll be around Mar/Apr 2008 (I hope), but they could decide to end around Jul 2007. Quite close to call this and they may just choose to wait till next year to open the floodgates (screwing us post Jul 2007ers) but that's a recipe to waste visas and also very irresponsible to do when the backlog is so high.

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tanu_75,
You are correct, how much more SOFAD is the key for PD movement for Jul-Aug-Sept. AS long as EB2I&C PD moves to June/July 2007 the chances of VISA wastage is minimal. Also as Spec & others pointed some of the OCTOBER approvals are possibly from prior year numbers, so it is safe to assume USCIS may not waste VISAS this year or in the coming years.

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Originally Posted by 03May07

Will the 100th page of this thread bring all of us The good news :) ?

Spec, thanks for adding the sources!

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03May07,
We may cross 100 pages before July 2011 VB release! :)

We are now predicting when will we cross 100th page :) LOL

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Originally Posted by nuvikas

We are now predicting when will we cross 100th page :) LOL

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:o About this time last year i remember predicting for 200th page for EB2 prediction thread on IV:o

Q, other moderators

would you consider archiving the thread after 100 pages and opening a new part2 thread?

I agree that we have to do it sometime & may be soon. Not sure when. The performance of the site seems good. May be we could spawn another thread when it deteriorates?

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Originally Posted by bieber

Q, other moderators

would you consider archiving the thread after 100 pages and opening a new part2 thread?

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Originally Posted by veni001

03May07,
We may cross 100 pages before July 2011 VB release! :)

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OK let us request DOS to make everybody current on the eve of 100th Page :) ...

Friends,

So finally our source had a discussion with CO in Visa Office.

Here is what CO had to say - "There will be significant movement in July. If people were happy with the June movement, they will be happier with the movement in July."

I guess it means the dates will definitely move past Jan 07.

Good luck everybody! And a BIG thanks to our source! He has asked all of us to "pray" for him since he is current and is expecting a GC anytime now. My best wishes to him!!

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Friends,

So finally our source had a discussion with CO in Visa Office.

Here is what CO had to say - "There will be significant movement in July. If people were happy with the June movement, they will be happier with the movement in July."

I guess it means the dates will definitely move past Jan 07.

Good luck everybody! And a BIG thanks to our source! He has asked all of us to "pray" for him since he is current and is expecting a GC anytime now. My best wishes to him!!

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Thanks to Q and Q's source. BTW did he tell you when the July VB will be released?

Thanks Q. Great News. Time to make Doctor's appointment. LOL

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Friends,

So finally our source had a discussion with CO in Visa Office.

Here is what CO had to say - "There will be significant movement in July. If people were happy with the June movement, they will be happier with the movement in July."

I guess it means the dates will definitely move past Jan 07.

Good luck everybody! And a BIG thanks to our source! He has asked all of us to "pray" for him since he is current and is expecting a GC anytime now. My best wishes to him!!

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Friends,

So finally our source had a discussion with CO in Visa Office.

Here is what CO had to say - "There will be significant movement in July. If people were happy with the June movement, they will be happier with the movement in July."

I guess it means the dates will definitely move past Jan 07.

Good luck everybody! And a BIG thanks to our source! He has asked all of us to "pray" for him since he is current and is expecting a GC anytime now. My best wishes to him!!

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Q,

Thanks for the update.

The VB moved 3 and a half months in the June VB. If it moved the same in the July VB (as happy) then it would move to 01FEB07 (that would use around 8.5k extra visas).

If people will be "happier", that suggests a bigger movement than even that.

Since we don't know the % split for July/August/September it doesn't necessarily tell us where the year will end, but it is very encouraging.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Friends,

So finally our source had a discussion with CO in Visa Office.

Here is what CO had to say - "There will be significant movement in July. If people were happy with the June movement, they will be happier with the movement in July."

I guess it means the dates will definitely move past Jan 07.

Good luck everybody! And a BIG thanks to our source! He has asked all of us to "pray" for him since he is current and is expecting a GC anytime now. My best wishes to him!!

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Thank you 'Q'. Great News.. I will be current then :-)

Q, great news

Hope your friend will get gc soon and keep giving us good news :)

if it croesses Jan 07..I will be current too..Great news Q...thanks..we will pray for your source too...

not to read toomuch in between lines, but happier>happy so definitely more than 3.5 months movement can be expected

In Trackitt we didn't see any approvals for last two days. what's going on. is TSC/NSC stopped approving...

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Friends,

So finally our source had a discussion with CO in Visa Office.

Here is what CO had to say - "There will be significant movement in July. If people were happy with the June movement, they will be happier with the movement in July."

I guess it means the dates will definitely move past Jan 07.

Good luck everybody! And a BIG thanks to our source! He has asked all of us to "pray" for him since he is current and is expecting a GC anytime now. My best wishes to him!!

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This news is very much fit for 100th page. :) Keeping fingers crossed since PD is very close

This is good news... I will not be current (PD in 2010) but I am happy for guys who will be current and pray that you get your GC (and freedom) very soon!!

Good Luck!!

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Friends,

So finally our source had a discussion with CO in Visa Office.

Here is what CO had to say - "There will be significant movement in July. If people were happy with the June movement, they will be happier with the movement in July."

I guess it means the dates will definitely move past Jan 07.

Good luck everybody! And a BIG thanks to our source! He has asked all of us to "pray" for him since he is current and is expecting a GC anytime now. My best wishes to him!!

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Just wondering no one posted this on TRACKITT. though we are using that data too much :-). is there any reason not to post there. LOL

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Originally Posted by mpurna77

Just wondering no one posted this on TRACKITT. though we are using that data too much :-). is there any reason not to post there. LOL

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-->There is nothing wrong on keeping an open secret :) Let them find it themselves. More power to Q forum :)

I think the bulletin should come out on Friday. If not next Wednesday.

If the date moves to even Feb 2007, that a strong indication that eventually the date will at least move upto May 2007 - may be even Aug 2007.

Thank you so much Q for the Great news.
Will pray for your friend to get his GC soon.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Friends,

So finally our source had a discussion with CO in Visa Office.

Here is what CO had to say - "There will be significant movement in July. If people were happy with the June movement, they will be happier with the movement in July."

I guess it means the dates will definitely move past Jan 07.

Good luck everybody! And a BIG thanks to our source! He has asked all of us to "pray" for him since he is current and is expecting a GC anytime now. My best wishes to him!!

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Thank you for the update Q. I guess you will be current.

Hey guys ... we believe in open collaborative process. Just like we provide information from other forums and credit them, it would be perfectly alright to talk about our information and quote it somewhere.

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Originally Posted by mpurna77

Just wondering no one posted this on TRACKITT. though we are using that data too much :-). is there any reason not to post there. LOL

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Originally Posted by pravara

-->There is nothing wrong on keeping an open secret :) Let them find it themselves. More power to Q forum :)

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We will cross 100th page before July VB comes out! Everybody will be hitting Mumbai consulate page tomorrow night.
Might be a good idea to start a fresh thread for predictions part-2 once July VB comes out :-)
Just stretch the prediction to end of October'2007 by September VB for my sake.. just kidding.. mine is in Oct'07.
skpanda mentioned GC = Freedom! so true.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Hey guys ... we believe in open collaborative process. Just like we provide information from other forums and credit them, it would be perfectly alright to talk about our information and quote it somewhere.

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-->I agree too. I was only being TIC about it.

However, we need to consider the fact that your source shouldn't lose his access to CO because of some anonymous forum talk. I might be making too much out of this too.

Best
-P

Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Friends,

So finally our source had a discussion with CO in Visa Office.

Here is what CO had to say - "There will be significant movement in July. If people were happy with the June movement, they will be happier with the movement in July."

I guess it means the dates will definitely move past Jan 07.

Good luck everybody! And a BIG thanks to our source! He has asked all of us to "pray" for him since he is current and is expecting a GC anytime now. My best wishes to him!!

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Q thanks for posting, Iam really hoping that the dates move to Feb 2007 or further this has greatly increased the hopes. Good luck to everyone.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

I think the bulletin should come out on Friday. If not next Wednesday.

If the date moves to even Feb 2007, that a strong indication that eventually the date will at least move upto May 2007 - may be even Aug 2007.

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I know May 2007 is realistic but personally Iam praying its Aug 2007 so that the word PWMB can be history and all PWMB's are atleast able to file for 485 this year.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

I think the bulletin should come out on Friday. If not next Wednesday.

If the date moves to even Feb 2007, that a strong indication that eventually the date will at least move upto May 2007 - may be even Aug 2007.

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Awesome!!! Thanks a lot Q!! God bless you and your source!!

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Q, Teddy, Veni,

As promised, I have posted something about sources of information in the FACTS & DATA section. http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...n-Calculations

It doesn't feel complete as yet.

Please feel free to add anything I have forgotten at the bottom. I will integrate it into a common style. In the same vein, please add any additions or changes to the current explanations at the bottom and I will do likewise. The order of sources may not be correct - fell free to comment on that as well.

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You are still missing one source ;-)

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Originally Posted by ChampU

Awesome!!! Thanks a lot Q!! God bless you and your source!!

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i second that... may your source get GC asap... and you get current in July...all the best....

Teddy

You became GC-pandit my friend!

p.s. But of course all of us know you are a GURU!

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Q thanks for posting, Iam really hoping that the dates move to Feb 2007 or further this has greatly increased the hopes. Good luck to everyone.



I know May 2007 is realistic but personally Iam praying its Aug 2007 so that the word PWMB can be history and all PWMB's are atleast able to file for 485 this year.

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