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We are giving away all forecast plans proceeds from this weekend towards the benefit of Harvey victims.
And you get 50% off on all forecasting plans. Buy your membership today and establish clarity to the GC timelines.
p.s. - We are extending this until Friday. Thank you for your positive response.
What's the prediction for EB2I 2009 to Clear? My PD is a week before 01DEC09. Is May 2020 the worst case scenario? Optimistically or realistically what?
Unfortunately, no July pending inventory again. Looks like this has become the norm.
Unfortunately without the release of the next Pending Inventory we are a little bit blank and cannot see the light at the end of the tunnel. Hope for the best.Quote:
Originally Posted by EB3Iwaiting
My guesstimate for OCT Bulletin, Most likely there could be cutoff dates for EB1 I and EB2. Since everyone has to go through interviews, and they want to adjust/come-up with plan for their resources.
What happened to Visa Bulletin? Looks like they are still crunching the numbers.
Gurus, any predictions?
The October 2017 VB has been published. https://travel.state.gov/content/vis...ober-2017.html
EB1
All Current
EB2-I
Final Action Date - 15SEP08
Filing Date - 08FEB09
EB3-I
Final Action Date - 15OCT06
Filing Date - 01JAN08
From the VB:
Quote:
F. VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS
FAMILY-sponsored categories (potential monthly movement)
Worldwide dates:
F1: Up to several months
F2A: Up to one month
F2B: Up to one month
F3: Three or four weeks
F4: Two or three weeks
EMPLOYMENT-based categories (potential monthly movement)
Employment First: The category will remain “Current”.
Employment Second:
Worldwide: Current
China: Up to four weeks
India: Up to one month
Employment Third:
Worldwide: Current
China: Up to four months
India: Limited forward movement
Mexico: Current
Philippines: Up to two months
Employment Fourth: Current for most countries.
El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras: Up to three weeks
Mexico: some forward movement
Employment Fifth: The category will remain “Current” for most countries.
China-mainland born: Up to one week
The above final action date projections for the Family and Employment categories indicate what is likely to happen on a monthly basis through January based on current applicant demand patterns. Readers should never assume that recent trends in final action date movements are guaranteed for the future, or that "corrective" action will not be required at some point in an effort to maintain number use within the applicable annual limits. The determination of the actual monthly final action dates is subject to fluctuations in applicant demand and a number of other variables.
EB3-I Filing Date - 01JAN08
EB3-I Final Action Date - 15OCT06
Finally EB3-I is in uncharted territory. Much needed good news for them. Hopefully the kids haven't aged out for some.
This essentially gives some people an opportunity to file I-485 applications in EB3I. Is this a correct assessment?Quote:
Originally Posted by idliman
Yes. I believe the USCIS accepts the filing dates in the first quarter (For example in Oct 2016). So we have to wait and see the USCIS website below.Quote:
Originally Posted by vyruss
https://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo
Thanks Spec! Are you surprised by prediction/expectation that EB2-I would move up to 1 month until January? Frankly I am little bit surprised (on +ve side). Better year ahead for EB2-I?
Do we expect anyone to waiting for filing their in EB3 for 10+ years and not port to EB2 already?Quote:
Originally Posted by idliman
Guru's are we expecting any filings and if yes how many for EB3I between those 2006 and 2008 years?
I am thinking that should be very minimal numbers as all of them would have qualified for 5+ years of work ex and would have been eligible for EB2.
For EB3, based on 2007 July-Aug Inventory, my guess is 200 people per month in mid 2007 to 2008 End waiting to file without porting to EB2.Quote:
Originally Posted by srimurthy
I am hoping for EB2 & EB3 to have same priority date by Final Quarter of 2018. Hope Apr 2018 bulletin (2nd half of 2018) will have revised and more positive forecast. We need at least 12K-16K between EB2 & EB3 to see good movement in the dates.
Hi Spec / All,
I am in EB3I and my priority date is September 2007. I am working with the same employer for the past 10+ years. Assuming USCIS accepts the filing dates - I may be able to file for AOS on October 1st.
My H1 extension is currently in progress and my I-94 end date is September 25, 2017. If USCIS accepts the filing dates, will I be able to apply for AOS or do I need to wait for my H1 extension to be approved before filing for AOS?
Could you please share your thoughts?
You do not have to wait for H1 approval. I did file my 485 while H1B extension is pending in 2012.Quote:
Originally Posted by SV2007
Thank you very much.Quote:
Originally Posted by bluelabel
It's sad that filing dates are not accepted this month. Being the first month of the financial year, I was hopeful that filing dates will be accepted but not everything goes as per our expectation.
Spec / YTEleven / Guru's - Would you think filing dates will be accepted in the coming bulletins or do we need to wait for final action dates only going forward?
Per April 2017 inventory (if it is still to be trusted) there are still 3000+ EB3I pending in queue from Oct 2016 to July 2017. So CO does not need to build inventory immediately. Even though it affects people who can file for EAD's immediately, in the longer run this may help. The immigration game is so complicated that sometime when we think it is going to affect us, it may help. So we should stay positive.Quote:
Originally Posted by SV2007
Hi Spec and other gurus,
I have an important question to ask. Is working on EAD part time for a second employer voids one's H-1B status with the primary employer? Or has it no impact on the H-1B status? In case if H-1B is void, can it be reinstated by the primary employer by filing for extension? Is it allowed? Also, can you please point me to some official web link or a lawyer's opinion on this matter? Thanks in advance!
Dear Members,
I am a recently joined member and need input on prediction of my priority date.
Mine is EB2 India .. Nov 3. 2010. Please advise.
Thanks
vedu,Quote:
Originally Posted by vedu
Unfortunately, there is no simple answer to this question.
The conventional wisdom (and safest interpretation) is that using an EAD for part time work will cause the person to lose H1B status, since the H1B only authorizes the person to work for the H1B sponsoring company.
In 2008, AILA put the case to USCIS (link [Item 24 and Addendum III]) that "moonlighting" using an EAD should not terminate the H1B status.
The USCIS reply was that they would "take this matter under advisement" (i.e. they would think about it). To my knowledge, USCIS has never made any further statement on the matter since that date.
Quote:
Originally Posted by altek001
This is my opinion and gut feeling... Others may disagree:
Assuming there is no legislative relief or any major Spillover -
You can file 485/EAD around Oct 2020. Get Green card in hand around 2023-2025.
Note: My PD is around your date.
Free advice: Forget about green card and focus on other important things in life..
Quote:
Originally Posted by skpanda
Thank you for your response. I was wondering if you possiblly had data to back up your estimation of filing 485 around oct 2020.
This is a generic question to all members reading this forum....."DACA is getting a lot of attention in media and by chuck grassley report about 40K from the 800K daca recipients received green card and 1000 became US citizens. These were illegals to begin with and started DACA process in 2012.
We have been waiting very long with no end in sight and the dates keep getting back and forth as its a play game.
what should be we doing seriously to make our voices heard? Its time to think and act differently.Yoder on the house floor asking to remove per country cap is not going to work as a few congressmen put the same rhetoric in the year 2010
"
Link to latest inventory https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...y_August17.pdf
Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Thank you for your response and the link. My own research also led me to similar conclusion that this is a gray area. It is at least comforting to know that the USCIS did not explicitly reject AILA's opinion in its response. I believe a new H-1B renewal once approved will put the matter to rest.
That is important data point we have now. Unfortunately for EB2I, it looks like there is no getting out of 2009 this year:( , but good year ahead for EB3I.Quote:
Originally Posted by asankaran
It's a shame the Philippines data is missing from the Inventory data.
By process of subtraction, the derived figures would be:
Country -------- EB1 ---- EB2 ---- EB3 ---- EW ---- EB4 ---- EB5 ---- Total
Philippines -- 4,424 -- 1,239 -- 1,247 ---- 60 ----- 78 ------ 1 ---- 7,049
This compares to the following figures for April 2017:
Country -------- EB1 ---- EB2 ---- EB3 ---- EW ---- EB4 ---- EB5 ---- Total
Philippines ---- 177 -- 1,141 -- 2,384 ---- 83 ----- 57 ------ 0 ---- 3,842
The difference in the EB1 figure stands out. It is a factor bigger than EB1-Philippines has ever been before (generally under 200), so the authenticity must be doubtful.
Edit: Definitely something screwy with the EB1 figures. Subtractions give Philippines 3.4k EB1 cases in 2007/2008 and some months /years have negative values. That calls into question whether the 60.3k total EB1 cases is correct.
Fed up of the sloppiness USCIS has shown recently towards the Inventory figures!!
No one else other than the Indians or Chinese to some extend care about the inventory numbers. It is a surprise in itself that they actually released something. At this point, USCIS derives sadistic pleasure that we simply collect all the bread crumbs they throw at us.
Also, under Trump administration, this is the first time that USCIS is not accepting Filing Dates even for the Oct VB. Lives of legal immigrants waiting in line will only get harder from now on. The anti-immigrants are finally empowered. They are following their agenda - "Make lives of those waiting in line legally so that even they will eventually get frustrated and leave".
http://thehill.com/homenews/administ...k-in-us-report
It really is a sight to behold. Its as if there is no due diligence, no oversight, no fact checking in USCIS. How can a large, well funded organization even throw out data which is clearly wrong.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Getting out of 2009 for EB2I is pipe dream at this point. We might not even reach middle of 2009.
Quote:
Originally Posted by vedu
Unfortunately I have to agree with you here. We know the demand side of the equation. If the supply side of the equation remains tight, we will spend at least next two years in 2009.Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
I had lost all hopes and stopped visiting the forums. Just releasing the inventory by itself is something that made me happy.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
At least EB2I would move to 2009 for FY18.
Can someone please share on the number of applicants filing PERM for FY2010( Oct 2009 to Sep 2010) for EB1, EB2 and EB3 by country of chargeability?. What would be the total number of perm applicants for that year?
Quote:
Originally Posted by EB3Iwaiting
I think DOJ/ Trump administration is in the process of closing H1/L1/H4 EAD loopholes by issuing increased RFE's. Gone are the days when PP was filed to make USCIS work fast in the 15 day TAT. 45% RFE's issued is a clear signal to worry about. In the DACA bill, they are proposing cuts to H1b from 65K to 50K, and include elimination of country cap limits as this helps DACA as they are predominantly from Mexico. H4 EAD is sure to get impacted September 2017.
What I am thinking is, by closing the Non- Immigrant visa loopholes, USCIS will ask DACA applicants to get in line for green cards. We should take this news positively, as DACA folks will not wait many years (like us) and this could help us to a great extent. They will need to remove the country caps as Mexico needs a chunk of Visa numbers for DACA recipients, thereby Indian and Chinese applicants are sure to get that big slice from the Pie. :o
This is breaking news on cuts to Immigrant visas from a few countries. Let's hope the spillover benefits us.
https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...ouncement.html
altek001,Quote:
Originally Posted by altek001
I don't think people should revel in the pain of others as a way to get extra visas for themselves. It's unbecoming.
In any case, it has virtually no effect.
For FY2016, the total number of GC issued to the affected countries was 1,991 which was 1.4% of total approvals. Iran accounted for 79.5% of these.
It's not clear whether the proclamation also applies to AOS, or only applies to those visas issued at consulates. The total number of immigrant visas issued at consulates to the affected countries in FY2016 was 384. 133 were issued to EB1, 81 were issued to EB2 and 90 were issued to EB3.
Iran accounted for 76.6% of immigrant visas issued and 86.8% of those issued in EB1-EB3.
Dear Spectator,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
It does not give much pleasure in me doing that. Indians have been discriminated long enough with country quota caps, back tracking of visa bulletins(oct 2015) and visa retrogression. In 2012, the PD was may 2010 and I thought it was close, but USCIS pushed the dates back. There is no country caps on h1, but there is on GC... Why ? America needs cheap temporary labor where folks can come and go or wait longer if they really need green cards.... I do not see any other reason than this, played very well by USCIS. For a moment.... think, the revenue USCIS generates on H1, H4, RFE, EAD and exorbitant AP and 485 filings.
If other countries can benefit by pushing our green cards in backlog when they applied after us, then there is nothing wrong to benefit numbers (though paltry) from this Sep 24 ban. I have been waiting for GC for long and have seen EB3 folks marrying ROW just for the sake of chargeability. You will now realize this is not a level playing field where everyone is treated equal. While you may not agree with me, Just thought of putting a few pointers.
I see people of all different color, cast , creed and nationality get GC much earlier even though I have been here for 13 years. What exactly is my fault ? How can I change my country of birth please ?Quote:
Originally Posted by altek001
Hi All,
Posting here for visibility and advise. I have filed for my EAD renewal (I-485 AOS and second renewal) and Receipt Date was June 30 2017 for me and the spouse. My EAD/AP expires on Oct 25 2017. I am at around 90 days since the filing and no response beyond the Receipt Notice. Last time, I raised a SR at 75 days saying it is approaching " Approaching Regulatory Timeframe “service request" on my EAD/AP renewal". But one of my friends told me this time that due to 180 day automatic extension, raising SR at 75 days is no longer an option and it should be at 165 days. Which is true. Does anyone have experience in this regard. Please advise.