EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

Looking at Kanmani's PERM database there are 16 people who mentioned how many 485s their application will result in and out of those 16, 14 have 2 (self and spouse), 2 have 3 (self, spouse, kid). Small sample size caveats apply - but we are exactly at 1 non-US-born kid per 8 families.

There are several with multiple PERMs or parallel PERMs - but that is not our focus right now. Also - no single people?

Link: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...Multiple-Perms

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Originally Posted by suninphx

Teddy- I think lets not take 'selective' examples to prove point. If you look at the sheet Kanmani is maintaning you may get a different impression. And another thing is when we are considering a ratio of '1' and are going by density of 2500/month I think we have all these factors avaraged out and covered. So lets go by that.

PS: 2.05 may not be actual rate for India but 2.25 is too high IMHO. Your own assumption of out of 8 families one having non USA born kid brings ratio to 2.125.

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Originally Posted by imdeng

Also - no single people?

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I'm not surprised. We're mostly EB2I with some EB2C. With a 4 - 5 year wait + 2 years of workex pre PERM + 2 years of MS we're at least 29 years old when we get our I485. From anecdotal evidence, I believe a lot of us are far older than that. How many desi parents will let their kids stay unmarried at the ungodly age of 30.
"Lata aunty ki beti se mil to lo!"

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Originally Posted by Pedro Gonzales

I'm not surprised. We're mostly EB2I with some EB2C. With a 4 - 5 year wait + 2 years of workex pre PERM + 2 years of MS we're at least 29 years old when we get our I485. From anecdotal evidence, I believe a lot of us are far older than that. How many desi parents will let their kids stay unmarried at the ungodly age of 30.
"Lata aunty ki beti se mil to lo!"

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"Lata aunty ki beti se mil to lo!" - LOL

http://www.uscis.gov/files/nativedoc...39_wmv_540.wmv

I guess USCIS transformation will roll out in next 6 months or so for basic non-immigrant categories.

Spec used to have a monthly breakup of PERM data in text form in his thread in FACTS & DATA section. It is now replaced by an annual summary data in image form - I guess because of plagiarism issues. Do we still have that monthly PERM data somewhere?

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Originally Posted by imdeng

Spec used to have a monthly breakup of PERM data in text form in his thread in FACTS & DATA section. It is now replaced by an annual summary data in image form - I guess because of plagiarism issues. Do we still have that monthly PERM data somewhere?

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Not sure if you are looking for this:

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...thly-Breakdown)

Yes - Thank You.

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Originally Posted by suninphx

Not sure if you are looking for this:

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...thly-Breakdown)

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Originally Posted by suninphx

Teddy- I think lets not take 'selective' examples to prove point. If you look at the sheet Kanmani is maintaning you may get a different impression. And another thing is when we are considering a ratio of '1' and are going by density of 2500/month I think we have all these factors avaraged out and covered. So lets go by that.

PS: 2.05 may not be actual rate for India but 2.25 is too high IMHO. Your own assumption of out of 8 families one having non USA born kid brings ratio to 2.125.

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Originally Posted by Pedro Gonzales

I'm not surprised. We're mostly EB2I with some EB2C. With a 4 - 5 year wait + 2 years of workex pre PERM + 2 years of MS we're at least 29 years old when we get our I485. From anecdotal evidence, I believe a lot of us are far older than that. How many desi parents will let their kids stay unmarried at the ungodly age of 30.
"Lata aunty ki beti se mil to lo!"

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Sun I agree in principle. The example was the most recent one that I read so just quoted it, it just seemed to be a good one but I agree it’s not the norm; it was just to highlight a possibility. People who came from India via the Job route are however more likely to have non-us born kids. You math is right 1/8 means 2.125. Virtually everyone who cane in 2006/2007/2008 had a minimum of 5-6 years of work experience and for someone having a 1 kid especially if they were married early is highly likely. The ratio of MS EB2 to Job Eb2 is probably 50-50. Pedro has said this in a very nice and hilarious way.

The ratio of 1 I agree is the best way to go forward. In the discussion a very good point about CP came up. So hopefully Demand Destruction = CP + NIW + Higher EB2 - EB3. We should be calling it extra demand destruction due to the circumstances, the ratio of 1 has some demand destruction baked in otherwise it’s simply not possible. The most optimistic calculation IMHO would be .66 (EB2 - Eb3) *2.05 (Dependent)*.8 (20% Denial) even this exceeds 1. I believe the 20% accounts for Kanmani’s duplicate perm compilation.

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Originally Posted by vizcard

I don't think we can discount the fact that someone with a Sept PD claimed to get a receipt. I don't know if it's factual or not or maybe the July chap didn't get his due to wrong address or some other issue on their side.

That being said I do agree that it will go through July 1 and then stop or retrogress.

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Is there anyone in this forum or does anyone know who has received NVC fee receipt notice for Sept 2008 PD???

All right guys, thanks for discussion. 2.125 is then what majority agree as worst case factor, and no one opposes the 75% eb2?

If we go by perm equal 485s all this dont matter. I think we are all coming to concensus on this axiom.

Hi Guru's

Do you think the dates will move in the next bulletin. My PD is April 18 2008.

regards
Chirakala

Have your documents ready. There is a fair chance that atleast the next VB will see some movement. My take 2 months.

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Originally Posted by vchirakala

Hi Guru's

Do you think the dates will move in the next bulletin. My PD is April 18 2008.

regards
Chirakala

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Originally Posted by vchirakala

Hi Guru's

Do you think the dates will move in the next bulletin. My PD is April 18 2008.

regards
Chirakala

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It is expected to move to April 15 so you will not be current.

Just kidding... the general consensus is that it will move till July 1, 2008 over the next 2 bulletins. So keep your docs ready and get your vaccinations done.

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Originally Posted by vizcard

It is expected to move to April 15 so you will not be current.

Just kidding... the general consensus is that it will move till July 1, 2008 over the next 2 bulletins. So keep your docs ready and get your vaccinations done.

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Dude...please mention July 15 2008 and not July 1st :-) mine is July 11

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Originally Posted by wantgcnow

Dude...please mention July 15 2008 and not July 1st :-) mine is July 11

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If it was up to me I would say Aug 22 or Sept 1 :)

Unfortunately (or maybe fortunately), I am not CO.

I remember a post from user 'la_2002_ch' EB2I and he mentioned a co-worker who had CP option on I140 had got NVC fee notice and there PD were same. I can see la_2002_ch has put in his PD as 9/26/2008 in the other thread of people waiting to file. He commented sometime in august 2011, I need to go back and find his thread.

Mine is 9/25/2008 and so this is a good news(IF TRUE)

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Originally Posted by wantgcnow

Is there anyone in this forum or does anyone know who has received NVC fee receipt notice for Sept 2008 PD???

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OK. la_2002_ch info is in post # 5774 in 2011 Predictions thread.
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Gurus, one of my colleagues with a similar PD as mine (Sep 2008) just heard from our common attorney that he has received the fee notice for his CP case. (dont know why the HR decided to file my case as AOS and his as CP).

Does this help us in predicting any good/bad news (Hoping good... so that I can file the EAD for my wife).

+++++++

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Originally Posted by longgcque

I remember a post from user 'la_2002_ch' EB2I and he mentioned a co-worker who had CP option on I140 had got NVC fee notice and there PD were same. I can see la_2002_ch has put in his PD as 9/26/2008 in the other thread of people waiting to file. He commented sometime in august 2011, I need to go back and find his thread.

Mine is 9/25/2008 and so this is a good news(IF TRUE)

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While it is possible that the Dates move upto July 15th 2008. We must be really wary and cautious in our expectations. Because there is only a point upto which CO can legally push the bar -- with in the current framework. While you must gather all the required documents ( mainly Birth Certificates etc) that will require time to find/gather, but also not set yourself up for major disappointment.
My 2 cents.

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Originally Posted by wantgcnow

Dude...please mention July 15 2008 and not July 1st :-) mine is July 11

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This is in response to sportsfan33's post in PD Database thread - its better discussed here.

I was looking for the monthly PERM data earlier today to check the veracity of the claim that demand in 2008 is significantly lower in the second half. As far as PERM filings go - there is only a small dropoff. Jan-Apr'08 is ~10.5K, Sept-Dec'08 is ~8.5K - about 20% drop max. This is in the ballpark of what we are seeing in the PD Database.

2009 numbers in PD Database may be understated right now since people in mid-late 2009 are still sleeping. They will be up and active when they feel that their PD is close to being current. 2008 on the other hand is fully up and about I think.

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Although data are seriously limited, some interesting observations can be made already.

37 people are not current yet in 2008 (total = 53) and 23 people are in 2009.

So under the current distribution, we have 53 in 2008 compared with 23 in 2009. 2010 and 2011 are out of question as of now because very few of those people are following anything immigration related yet.

Also under the current distribution, we don't have significant evidence to confirm the popular theory of demand falling off the cliff post July 2008 (21 out of 53...less than 50%, yes, but not *too less*).

It seems to imply that the numbers in 2009 are even less than 50% of those in 2008, which is corroborated by the PERM data and also from kanmani's other thread which seems to indicate more duplicate PERMs in 2009 compared to 2008. However the demand destruction will be more severe in 2008. Interesting to see how it plays out.

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** Admin says they had a discussion with some one in Visa Office. Estimation of 28.5k is incorrect, reality is different.

And as is usual for the said Admin, no details, no specifics - not even an indication of whether the reality is higher or lower than the 28.5K estimate. Just that it is different - its the easiest call to make - different.

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Originally Posted by pdmay2008

** Admin says they had a discussion with some one in Visa Office. Estimation of 28.5k is incorrect, reality is different.

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

Nishant , 70: 30 is ok for me . I have no supporting data.

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Kanmani, the supporting data is in the following post by tonyromo.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...3882#post13882

You would notice that this ratio is rising steadily. Following factors will cause the rise.
- If there are more folks from China the ratio will likely rise, China has much higher filing in Eb2 proportionately.
- For people in EB3 before Jul 2007 it makes some sense and they have EAD / AP, for people after Jul 2007 its a must to be in EB2 to get anything.

I agree with Nishant's comment that EB3 cases after Jul 2007 are kind of rare, if at all there are some people they are converting to EB2 or atleast trying.

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Originally Posted by imdeng

And as is usual for the said Admin, no details, no specifics - not even an indication of whether the reality is higher or lower than the 28.5K estimate. Just that it is different - its the easiest call to make - different.

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I agree. Let's wait and watch what he will come up with.

I am new to this forum
can any one explain me what is NVC fee receipt?
My Company changed Lawyer 2 years back, How should i know if i get the NVC receipt notice?

My PD is June 30 2008, Do you think the dates will move to june 30 2008 in the next bulletin?

Thanks,
Suresh

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Originally Posted by pdmay2008

** Admin says they had a discussion with some one in Visa Office. Estimation of 28.5k is incorrect, reality is different.

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Estimation of what? Pending visas or expecting visas?

Thanks

Looks like they don't have anything. They want calculations and data to generate traffic. Useless!!

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Originally Posted by asankaran

Looks like they don't have anything. They want calculations and data to generate traffic. Useless!!

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I got the same sense from the next post he posted in that site.

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Originally Posted by psuresh412

I am new to this forum
can any one explain me what is NVC fee receipt?
My Company changed Lawyer 2 years back, How should i know if i get the NVC receipt notice?

My PD is June 30 2008, Do you think the dates will move to june 30 2008 in the next bulletin?

Thanks,
Suresh

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You will only get a NVC receipt if you are Consular Processing. AOS folks don't get NVC receipts. June 30 should be current over the next two months... max April... .that's the general consensus on this forum.

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Originally Posted by pdmay2008

I got the same sense from the next post he posted in that site.

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I have seen him doing that many times in the past

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Kanmani, the supporting data is in the following post by tonyromo.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...3882#post13882

You would notice that this ratio is rising steadily. Following factors will cause the rise.
- If there are more folks from China the ratio will likely rise, China has much higher filing in Eb2 proportionately.
- For people in EB3 before Jul 2007 it makes some sense and they have EAD / AP, for people after Jul 2007 its a must to be in EB2 to get anything.

I agree with Nishant's comment that EB3 cases after Jul 2007 are kind of rare, if at all there are some people they are converting to EB2 or atleast trying.

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Teddy - let's assume that every one is in EB2 (essentially that's what you keep saying right? :) ). What would be conversion factor in that case? Would it be 1.25 0r like 1.5 or more than that?

I'm curious to know this as well. If I have to guess, it's SOFAD.

On a side note: let's not discuss pros/cons of any other site on this thread. There's a complete thread for that purpose. This has nothing to do with my view of that org :) Just as a courtesy to IMDeng who painfully cleaned up this thread not long ago

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Originally Posted by redsox2009

Estimation of what? Pending visas or expecting visas?

Thanks

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it is an open forum.. if you have to say something make sure you can atleast give it a direction...high or low.... just saying its not what it is in reality will not help people doing all the hardwork of calculating. Anyways lets wait and watch wat he has to say.

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Originally Posted by suninphx

Teddy lets assume that every one EB2 (eseentially thats what you keep saying right? :) ). What would be conversion factor in that case? Would it be 1.25 0r like 1.5 or more than that?

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Sun I don’t mean that quite literally though but here is how it would be. IMHO 75-25 is a very realistic. It is also backed by the data tonyromo posted for Jun 2008. This number will keep going higher but 100% is a bit extreme.
I think there is a general consensus that family factor is 2.125 instead of 2.05.

I like to use .8 as the destruction factor though many believe that it should be lower i.e. more destruction.

So essentially in theory what you are asking is 2.125 * .8 = 1.7. This is almost extreme :)

Iam still saying that based on the factor of 1, 28.5K is the figure they have and in the next bulletin there will be 2-4 months of movement. Probably both of us are in agreement that factor of 1 is realistic and the best way to go forward.

On another note let’s not worry on postings elsewhere the ones here are the best, we keep hearing things and nothing ever comes out. Talking after the fact is also meaningless because everyone knows by then.

Guys ..someone with PD JUly 7 2008 got NVC fee receipt notice today

Teddy thank you.

Do you believe the ratio of eb2:eb3 over of the course of years has changed upto 90:10 or 85:15 ?

Trackitt data shows significant eb3 I active profiles and numbers of eb2 vs eb3 has not changed greatly . Wht do u think?

cool. It at least guarantees that dates will move that far come october.

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Originally Posted by wantgcnow

Guys ..someone with PD JUly 7 2008 got NVC fee receipt notice today

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Originally Posted by wantgcnow

Guys ..someone with PD JUly 7 2008 got NVC fee receipt notice today

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wow ...are u serious ?

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Originally Posted by vchirakala

wow ...are u serious ?

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Yes someone named FedupwithGC in ** posted it just now

It indicates in another 6 months he will be current

Posted by FedUpwithGC (23) 3 minutes ago
I got my NVC fee receipt today as I opted for CP in my I140. So hoping that the PD will get close to July 2008 in next few bulletins.