EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

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Originally Posted by suninphx

If you look for the posts for a 1-2 months back or so...this point has been discussed extensively and every one kind of agrees that concerned authorities may like to go for 'controlled' movement of dates.

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Thanks, good to know that. I'm looking out for post July 2007 dates given that my PD is in 2008, so while we are discussing which 2007 dates we get to, I'm more interested in the meaning of 'controlled', since mar/apr 2007 is pretty much a given.

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Originally Posted by tanu_75

Yes, you are correct. Demand did not slow in 2008, but was flat and decreased in 2009.

Regardless the point is, C+I PERM is around 28k for a year around that timeframe. Assuming we add an extra year to the max approval date, then total perm received is around 28k for a year. Put a ratio of around 0.5 on EB2 and multiply by around 2.2 for dependents, then we end at around 30k possible new 485 applications. However we'll be missing some non-PERM EB2 like NIW but I think that's a small number. Essentially let's assume USCIS has a safe buffer number which they always like to have, a pre-adjudicated ready number of files they like to have in their shelves come July of every year. If that's 25k-30k, they may move by around 10 months beyond mar/apr 2007, around Jan 2008. My bet is they have become wiser in terms of understanding that they can't expect to do background checks and approve tens of thousands of 485 applications in 3 months. That's not happening, so they will have to open up beyond Jul 2007 sometime in the next 12 months. When and by how much is the only question. My expectation is by Sep 2011 and to Mar/Apr 2008.

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tanu_75,
I agree we all look at our own PD while talking about predictions! Let's put that aside for a moment.

First, Until after July 2007 Fiasco i don't think USCIS had concept of buffering applications for retrogressed countries and i am not sure even today if they have this(buffer) concept in mind.
Second, i don't think USCIS is going to draw conclusions for future year demand/spillover based on current year.
Third, Starting mid 2009 we started seeing move visibility with USCIS processing, data availability and coordination with DOS, so not very many surprises since then!

As far as "controlled" movement, we have seen this with India - F2A last year and i believe they did it based on data available(I130) on hand and i would assume they can do the same with EB!

Since we are all in agreement (more or less) that the remaining SOFAD will only suffice to clear pending EB2I&C cases until August 2007 (not counting PWMBs), USCIS may not see a need to fill their shelves until end of Q2 next year!

Let's hope they will throw their version of prediction for FY 2011 in July 2011 VB.

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Originally Posted by tanu_75

Thanks, good to know that. I'm looking out for post July 2007 dates given that my PD is in 2008, so while we are discussing which 2007 dates we get to, I'm more interested in the meaning of 'controlled', since mar/apr 2007 is pretty much a given.

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COntrolled as in moving dates for 6-9 months for building future demand against making it current all the way.

Q, Teddy, Veni,

As promised, I have posted something about sources of information in the FACTS & DATA section. http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...n-Calculations

It doesn't feel complete as yet.

Please feel free to add anything I have forgotten at the bottom. I will integrate it into a common style. In the same vein, please add any additions or changes to the current explanations at the bottom and I will do likewise. The order of sources may not be correct - fell free to comment on that as well.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Q, Teddy, Veni,

As promised, I have posted something about sources of information in the FACTS & DATA section. http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...n-Calculations

It doesn't feel complete as yet.

Please feel free to add anything I have forgotten at the bottom. I will integrate it into a common style. In the same vein, please add any additions or changes to the current explanations at the bottom and I will do likewise. The order of sources may not be correct - fell free to comment on that as well.

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Spec,
Looks good, you may want to include Monthly Visa Bulletin link and Pending Employment-Based I-485 Reports to the list.

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Originally Posted by suninphx

COntrolled as in moving dates for 6-9 months for building future demand against making it current all the way.

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Controlled might be more like 1-2 months or at max 3 months.

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Originally Posted by veni001

Spec,
Looks good, you may want to include Monthly Visa Bulletin link and Pending Employment-Based I-485 Reports to the list.

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Veni,

Thanks.

How the hell did I miss those!!

No wonder it felt incomplete.

tanu_75

is your pd in 1st quarter of calendar 2008?

Spec

Thank you. Pretty good list. I can't think of anything for now to add.

I would list the sources in a way it is useful for readers of our site to comprehend better.

So one way could be to list all sources to figure out what's happening with various stages of GC.

Labor
140
485/CP

I would put various sources under these headings.

Secondly I would also add one more stage "Analysis". So those who are interested in analyzing further... that's where I would put things like TRACKITT or Historical Data etc.

And then I would add one more section (may be called "Other Immigration Resources" where I would list other sites such as Murthy , IV and all other sources where there is good discussion and people can go for advice. )

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Q, Teddy, Veni,

As promised, I have posted something about sources of information in the FACTS & DATA section. http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...n-Calculations

It doesn't feel complete as yet.

Please feel free to add anything I have forgotten at the bottom. I will integrate it into a common style. In the same vein, please add any additions or changes to the current explanations at the bottom and I will do likewise. The order of sources may not be correct - fell free to comment on that as well.

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Spec firstly sincerest thanks for your hard work and amazing compilation. You might like to add a link for the demand data as well. Overall the compilation looks amazing very comprehensive and complete.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Veni,

Thanks.

How the hell did I miss those!!

No wonder it felt incomplete.

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Spec,
Don't worry, missing sth happens with almost all of us.:)

Hi Q,
Any updates from your source on the EB2(I) movement for July VB?

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Spec firstly sincerest thanks for your hard work and amazing compilation. You might like to add a link for the demand data as well. Overall the compilation looks amazing very comprehensive and complete.

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Teddy,

I thought I had. I'll check.

PS I thought item 4 covered it. I'll add DOS in front of it to make it clearer.

Do you mean something else?

Will the 100th page of this thread bring all of us The good news :) ?

Spec, thanks for adding the sources!

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Originally Posted by veni001

tanu_75,
I agree we all look at our own PD while talking about predictions! Let's put that aside for a moment.

First, Until after July 2007 Fiasco i don't think USCIS had concept of buffering applications for retrogressed countries and i am not sure even today if they have this(buffer) concept in mind.
Second, i don't think USCIS is going to draw conclusions for future year demand/spillover based on current year.
Third, Starting mid 2009 we started seeing move visibility with USCIS processing, data availability and coordination with DOS, so not very many surprises since then!

As far as "controlled" movement, we have seen this with India - F2A last year and i believe they did it based on data available(I130) on hand and i would assume they can do the same with EB!

Since we are all in agreement (more or less) that the remaining SOFAD will only suffice to clear pending EB2I&C cases until August 2007 (not counting PWMBs), USCIS may not see a need to fill their shelves until end of Q2 next year!

Let's hope they will throw their version of prediction for FY 2011 in July 2011 VB.

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Thanks veni. Its hard to keep this purely academic but will try :) Very good insight. Can you expand on the family vb movement. I looked at the vb's from jun 2010 to jan 2011 and noticed a lot of movement in f2a till dec followed by retrogression of 2 years. Are you referring to this and any idea on how much movement was made relative to i130?

Q any update from your secret source, like last month. Its pretty hard to wait till Friday when every moment on the job sucks.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Teddy,

I thought I had. I'll check.

PS I thought item 4 covered it. I'll add DOS in front of it to make it clearer.

Do you mean something else?

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Spec Thanks for changing the description I see it now.

guys .. sorry no update yet. Be assured will post as soon as I hear something.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

guys .. sorry no update yet. Be assured will post as soon as I hear something.

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I will be keeping an eye on Qs posts as eagerly as some conservative republicans are waiting for Sarah Palin to announce her candidacy..

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Originally Posted by ChampU

I will be keeping an eye on Qs posts as eagerly as some conservative republicans are waiting for Sarah Palin to announce her candidacy..

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dems are more interested in Palin's ticket than Reps, Since Obama needs some push to get elected for 2nd time Palin may be their best opposition

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Originally Posted by bieber

dems are more interested in Palin's ticket than Reps, Since Obama needs some push to get elected for 2nd time Palin may be their best opposition

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Yep! the DNC, late night comedians/SNL are eagerly waiting for her to run for the office.. the most hillarious ticket would be a Palin/Gingrich ticket.. a loose cannon and a loose character.. :o

Are you sure? How about Palin/Trump ticket!!!!

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Originally Posted by ChampU

Yep! the DNC, late night comedians/SNL are eagerly waiting for her to run for the office.. the most hillarious ticket would be a Palin/Gingrich ticket.. a loose cannon and a loose character.. :o

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As Veni told
"Q, Teddy, Spec, Others ...
If we are counting towards ~24k total SOFAD for final quarter, 75% of 24k (=18k) should be coming from the unused visas from Q1-Q3. Since USCIS is not bound to quarterly (or monthly) limitation in Q4 why should they wait until Aug/Sept to apply SOFAD from Q1-Q3?(assume ~=18k)

I am not getting the point of limiting spillover to only ~8k or less than what is available from Q1-Q3(excl EB1), for July VB?"

In that case if USCIS/DOS want to utilize 18K at once, in the July VB we gonna see EB2I/C - APR 2007 (6months) last year it is 8 months?

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Are you sure? How about Palin/Trump ticket!!!!

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Ohh boy.. Palin/Trump ticket would provide enough funny material for the media to last 2 presidential election cycles..But it is as likely to happen as the DoS making all EB categories "C" because:

A. The Donald and his supersized ego would refuse to play second fiddle to her highness..
B. My experience with watching reality shows tells me that when two stars collide there can never be peace.
C. Both the "Bachelor" and the "Bachelorette" are experiencing declining popularity..

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Originally Posted by mpurna77

As Veni told
"Q, Teddy, Spec, Others ...
If we are counting towards ~24k total SOFAD for final quarter, 75% of 24k (=18k) should be coming from the unused visas from Q1-Q3. Since USCIS is not bound to quarterly (or monthly) limitation in Q4 why should they wait until Aug/Sept to apply SOFAD from Q1-Q3?(assume ~=18k)

I am not getting the point of limiting spillover to only ~8k or less than what is available from Q1-Q3(excl EB1), for July VB?"

In that case if USCIS/DOS want to utilize 18K at once, in the July VB we gonna see EB2I/C - APR 2007 (6months) last year it is 8 months?

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Let me try to clear some of the confusion.
- ~ 24K additional spillover in the last quarter will clear almost the entire backlog - pwmb. Potentially this can bring the dates very close to 01-Aug-2007.
- Everyone has slightly different perception of how much SOFAD we may see in the last quarter but it is mostly less than 24K. It really varies from 16-24K. Based on that the dates may stabilize between 01-Mar-2007 to 01-Aug-2007.A realistic date may probably be 15-APR-2007.
- If last year is a precedent then all the spillover happened only in the last quarter. This year atleast 9k from the 12K EB1 spillover promised at the time of the May bulletin has been applied. In my opinion we should not attribute any percentages to what will be applied when it is entirely discretionary.
- Coming to the 8k what is being hypothesized is that if we have to see 24K spillover in the last quarter it will either be even 8K in the 3 bulletins or higher in the Jul and Aug bulletins. So if the dates have to reach 01-Aug-2007 we should have atleast 8k movement in the Jul bulletin meaning dates advancing to atleast 01-Feb-2007 to keep the hopes alive.

Teddy,
Thanks for the very detailed explanation. During the previous year, most of the movement happened in July and Aug bulletins and the dates merely moved 2 months in the Sep bulletin. Not saying that the trend will be exactly same this year, but for the dates to move past July'07 in the Sep'11, we surely need the dates to be at least around Feb'07 in the July bulletin. Probably, the July bulletin will give us an idea on what to expect by the end of this year. Also, I see around 10K pending EB1 and ~9K pending EB2-ROW applications (with a sizable # of cases pending from 2010) in the last I485 demand data. Will that have any effect on EB2I+C movement?

Thanks!

Is there a correlation between the PD movements in End of Fiscal Year Visa Bulletins and the data published in the USCIS visa bulletin inventory? The reason I ask this, is that it could answer questions about how much does the DoS relies on the data published by the USCIS.

The demand data is released prior to the VB and this data comes from the USCIS (correct me if I am wrong). But this year, the scenario is different as the USCIS does not have any established numbers.If there is any analysis/data about the correlation between EOY movements and inventory stats, could you please let me know?

hi all... quick question... i read some where that most of the approvals were done in first two weeks of the month and then the speed of approvals dies down... is this correct historically for any category?

Thats quite logical since the ability to allocate visa will exhaust itself quite quickly when the cases are preadj. However there is not a whole lot of historicaly precedent to having tons of preadj cases. To difficult to say whether this is correct historically.

For last few months certainly that seems to be teh case.

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Originally Posted by soggadu

hi all... quick question... i read some where that most of the approvals were done in first two weeks of the month and then the speed of approvals dies down... is this correct historically for any category?

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Originally Posted by ChampU

The demand data is released prior to the VB and this data comes from the USCIS (correct me if I am wrong).

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ChampU,

The Demand Data is published by DOS not USCIS.

It contains "documentarily qualified" applicants that DOS is aware of. It therefore contains CP cases, but not necessarily all the cases reported in the USCIS Inventory.

Neither is it it absolutely clear at which point CP cases themselves are considered qualified to be included in the report - it is not spelt out specifically. It must be quite late in the process, since the description says they are reported at consular posts, rather than from the NVC (possibly after the interview date has been assigned by NVC and the paperwork shipped to the consulate).

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Originally Posted by pch053

Teddy,
Thanks for the very detailed explanation. During the previous year, most of the movement happened in July and Aug bulletins and the dates merely moved 2 months in the Sep bulletin. Not saying that the trend will be exactly same this year, but for the dates to move past July'07 in the Sep'11, we surely need the dates to be at least around Feb'07 in the July bulletin. Probably, the July bulletin will give us an idea on what to expect by the end of this year. Also, I see around 10K pending EB1 and ~9K pending EB2-ROW applications (with a sizable # of cases pending from 2010) in the last I485 demand data. Will that have any effect on EB2I+C movement?

Thanks!

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Last year the movement was 7+7+6 from the Jul+Aug+Sep bulletins. Unfortunately the Jul & Aug bulletins were through leaner stretches and for the Jul bulletin China was not a factor, in September the EB2 ROW and EB1 approvals were also higher seems like a very sincere attempt was made to approve any of those cases as well. You are correct in identifying that there is a large stockpile of Eb2 ROW and EB1 Applications and if USCIS decides to concentrate on them in the last quarter it will reduce our SOFAD numbers. Another point to note is that most of these applications are concentrated in the months prior to the last 4-5 months this could be a) Concurrent filings coupled with slow I140 approvals b) Stricter scrutiny in general. Additionally these numbers are a little higher this time than the earlier inevntories. I hope nothing nothing unusual happens on these and we are able to get our SOFAD. For us being able to reach the 01-Aug-2007 mark the Jul bulletin is defintely a very critical litmus test we have to reach Feb 2007 in the bulletin otherwise there is virtually no chance. Good luck to all for the Jul VB. The approvals rate has been a good for the June VB this augurs well for us.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Thats quite logical since the ability to allocate visa will exhaust itself quite quickly when the cases are preadj. However there is not a whole lot of historicaly precedent to having tons of preadj cases. To difficult to say whether this is correct historically.

For last few months certainly that seems to be teh case.

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In that case i see a lot more spilover from EB2 ROWMP and EB1 than we are predicting/projecting from July... I say this keeping in mind that Eb2 I/C cases will take priority in the last quarter not because of any other reason but because they are the most retrogressed... This is good for this year but bad for next year spilover... any comments??

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Originally Posted by ChampU

Is there a correlation between the PD movements in End of Fiscal Year Visa Bulletins and the data published in the USCIS visa bulletin inventory? The reason I ask this, is that it could answer questions about how much does the DoS relies on the data published by the USCIS.

The demand data is released prior to the VB and this data comes from the USCIS (correct me if I am wrong). But this year, the scenario is different as the USCIS does not have any established numbers.If there is any analysis/data about the correlation between EOY movements and inventory stats, could you please let me know?

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Technically, if demand data shows zero DOS should make the date current. If DOS moves dates as per demand data till september, there will be a time in fy2012 when demand goes to zero and if it is in Q3/Q4 then CIS will not have sufficient time to process new 485s and visa numbers will either go waste or will be used by EB3.
so, if you are waiting to file 485, what DOS does is kind of irrelevant as long as there is spillover we will get a chance sometime in next fy.

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Originally Posted by pch053

Teddy,
Thanks for the very detailed explanation. During the previous year, most of the movement happened in July and Aug bulletins and the dates merely moved 2 months in the Sep bulletin. Not saying that the trend will be exactly same this year, but for the dates to move past July'07 in the Sep'11, we surely need the dates to be at least around Feb'07 in the July bulletin. Probably, the July bulletin will give us an idea on what to expect by the end of this year. Also, I see around 10K pending EB1 and ~9K pending EB2-ROW applications (with a sizable # of cases pending from 2010) in the last I485 demand data. Will that have any effect on EB2I+C movement?

Thanks!

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In regard to pending Eb1 10k, may be most of the cases stuck for additional review from long time and piled up for sometime etc. Showing up in the inventory.

I agree that EB2IC will be first in line for SPILLOVER/SOFAD. However the rest I didnt understand. Can you please explain. I didn't really understand the rationale.

p.s. - As per your original question..... as I said, preadj exists only for retrogressed countries and so we are seeing this phenomenon of heavy first 2 weeks followed by a trickle.

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Originally Posted by soggadu

In that case i see a lot more spilover from EB2 ROWMP and EB1 than we are predicting/projecting from July... I say this keeping in mind that Eb2 I/C cases will take priority in the last quarter not because of any other reason but because they are the most retrogressed... This is good for this year but bad for next year spilover... any comments??

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

I agree that EB2IC will be first in line for SPILLOVER/SOFAD. However the rest I didnt understand. Can you please explain. I didn't really understand the rationale.

p.s. - As per your original question..... as I said, preadj exists only for retrogressed countries and so we are seeing this phenomenon of heavy first 2 weeks followed by a trickle.

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What i meant is that in the last quarter, most of the cases that would get worked on are Eb2 I/C as they are most retrogressed so more time allocated to free the back log...in due process, there will be pending( not every application but considerable number ) inventory for Eb1 and Eb2 row...

No. I wouldn't worry about that. This shouldn't have any effect on next years EB1 and EB2 ROW. If they have eligible EB1 / EB2 ROW this year they will assign visa to them first because their dates are current.

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Originally Posted by soggadu

What i meant is that in the last quarter, most of the cases that would get worked on are Eb2 I/C as they are most retrogressed so more time allocated to free the back log...in due process, there will be pending( not every application but considerable number ) inventory for Eb1 and Eb2 row...

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Last year the movement was 7+7+6 from the Jul+Aug+Sep bulletins. Unfortunately the Jul & Aug bulletins were through leaner stretches and for the Jul bulletin China was not a factor, in September the EB2 ROW and EB1 approvals were also higher seems like a very sincere attempt was made to approve any of those cases as well. You are correct in identifying that there is a large stockpile of Eb2 ROW and EB1 Applications and if USCIS decides to concentrate on them in the last quarter it will reduce our SOFAD numbers. Another point to note is that most of these applications are concentrated in the months prior to the last 4-5 months this could be a) Concurrent filings coupled with slow I140 approvals b) Stricter scrutiny in general. Additionally these numbers are a little higher this time than the earlier inevntories. I hope nothing nothing unusual happens on these and we are able to get our SOFAD. For us being able to reach the 01-Aug-2007 mark the Jul bulletin is defintely a very critical litmus test we have to reach Feb 2007 in the bulletin otherwise there is virtually no chance. Good luck to all for the Jul VB. The approvals rate has been a good for the June VB this augurs well for us.

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I agree with all the explanation but just a minor point. Didn't the visa dates move by ~2 months from Aug - Sep'10 bulletin? I see that EB2-I visa date was 1st March'06 in Aug'10 and 8th May'06 in Sep'10. The reason I was checking into this is to gauge whether USCIS moves the dates for most of the spillovers in the 1st 2 bulletins of the last quarter itself or not.

Thanks!

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Originally Posted by pch053

I agree with all the explanation but just a minor point. Didn't the visa dates move by ~2 months from Aug - Sep'10 bulletin? I see that EB2-I visa date was 1st March'06 in Aug'10 and 8th May'06 in Sep'10. The reason I was checking into this is to gauge whether USCIS moves the dates for most of the spillovers in the 1st 2 bulletins of the last quarter itself or not.

Thanks!

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If that trend continues, we can expect the bulk of the spillover to be alloted in July and August VB. What happens in September VB would be anyone's guess.. in the range Retrogression -No movement - C..

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Originally Posted by Spectator

ChampU,

The Demand Data is published by DOS not USCIS.

It contains "documentarily qualified" applicants that DOS is aware of. It therefore contains CP cases, but not necessarily all the cases reported in the USCIS Inventory.

Neither is it it absolutely clear at which point CP cases themselves are considered qualified to be included in the report - it is not spelt out specifically. It must be quite late in the process, since the description says they are reported at consular posts, rather than from the NVC (possibly after the interview date has been assigned by NVC and the paperwork shipped to the consulate).

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Thanks Spec!
If the visa number allocation and PD movement is entirely driven by the DoS and the USCIS acts as the funnel for the immigration process, what happens when the established inventory at the USCIS is depleted? And as a matter of policy, what would happen if this situation arises in Q1/Q2 of 2012?