EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

The general time for RFE response is 80 - 90 days. I doubt you are in trouble for that yet. Can't help much with the other questions though. Only suggestion for #3 is to document every correspondence (mail/call/email) you have with USICS in the meantime. For any mail you send, ensure you get USPS tracking and receipt confirmations.

Hiring a lawyer is worth the consideration.. just make sure you hire a good one. Best of luck!

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Originally Posted by toomuchguy

I apologize for this being a little off topic but needed some help..
Applied for 4th H1B extension on March 31st(premium got transformed to regular), RFE was mailed on June 29th which seems to be lost in the mail. My employer is a regular ,non-consulting full time USA based company and company's HR (i.e not a lawyer) usually handles H1B applications. 2 weeks ago, she got in touch with USCIS again and was told that a new letter will be sent out soon...So far we haven't received anything yet ..

1. How much time we usually get to respond to RFE? I understand time to respond to RFE is specified in the letter but since my employer has not received the letter yet is the application in trouble now that 30 days have passed already?
2 The online status msg indicates we can file e-request on July 29th? If we do this , would they email us the letter?
3. I read somewhere that the petitioner has to prove that they never received the letter?How do we do that?

Since time is running out was wondering if the experts here can suggest the next steps for my employer ? Call Customer service, INFO PASS(not sure how risky this is) , hire a lawyer etc

Thanks

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Disclaimer: This is just my opinion, not legal advice. Please consult a lawyer.

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Originally Posted by AC_1980

I would deeply appreciate if someone can weigh in on my post above. Looking to renew EAD and AP that expire mid dec 2017, we are in EB2 (c9 category for EAD).
1. Can we send in renewal for EAD 180 days in advance?
2. does the same apply to AP as well (180 days in advance)?
thank you

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Yes. My attorney has been doing the same for the last couple of time. 180 days ahead of expiry date so that we have enough time to receive new EAD/AP.

Thank you everyone! I appreciate all the feedback I got here.

https://travel.state.gov/content/vis.../bulletin.html


EB1-I is retrogressed to 2012.
EB2-I moved by 1 month
EB3-I moved by 3 months.

Regards

Amul,
Congrats!!

Anu,
you should be the next. your spouse can discard the 2010 PD now.

This 3 year old chart still has some steam: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B89...it?usp=sharing
originally predicted on clearing the eb3I backlogs by Sep 30th last year but now we can expect it to happen by next 6 to 9 months.

By end of next year we can expect both the EB3I and EB2I PDs equate somewhere around 2008/2009 PDs (No MORE UPWARD porting) then we might see the movement in EB2I by reverse porting to EB3I.

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Originally Posted by YTeleven

Amul,
Congrats!!

Anu,
you should be the next. your spouse can discard the 2010 PD now.

This 3 year old chart still has some steam: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B89...it?usp=sharing
originally predicted on clearing the eb3I backlogs by Sep 30th last year but now we can expect it to happen by next 6 to 9 months.

By end of next year we can expect both the EB3I and EB2I PDs equate somewhere around 2008/2009 PDs (No MORE UPWARD porting) then we might see the movement in EB2I by reverse porting to EB3I.

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Welcome back YT!! Missed you. Your prediction was actually great and it would have certainly happened if CO had not misallocated GCs from EB3 to other categories in the past 2 years. I am certain it happened this year too. It is amazing that you predicted it 3 years ago when all was doom and gloom in EB3I.

I too saw Amulchandra got greened. Very happy for him. Anugc is next.

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Originally Posted by YTeleven

Amul,
Congrats!!

Anu,
you should be the next. your spouse can discard the 2010 PD now.

This 3 year old chart still has some steam: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B89...it?usp=sharing
originally predicted on clearing the eb3I backlogs by Sep 30th last year but now we can expect it to happen by next 6 to 9 months.

By end of next year we can expect both the EB3I and EB2I PDs equate somewhere around 2008/2009 PDs (No MORE UPWARD porting) then we might see the movement in EB2I by reverse porting to EB3I.

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Thank you very much. I am very surprised when I saw your post. Literally brought me to tears. This is just an example of how much we support each other as a backlogged community.

FYI for others- My green card got approved today. Got CPO texts and emails this morning.
This was a veeeery long journey. This forum kept me informed through out the process. Can't thank everyone enough. I hope everyone gets to the finish line soon.

I see two positive things in Sep Visa Bulletin.

1. EB2 World wide dates also moved, this is an indication for EB1 worldwide demand is lower than expected.
2. EB3 all countries except China advanced, which shows low demand.

Hopefully next year both EB2I and EB3I will have race competition.

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Originally Posted by YTeleven

Amul,
Congrats!!

Anu,
you should be the next. your spouse can discard the 2010 PD now.

This 3 year old chart still has some steam: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B89...it?usp=sharing
originally predicted on clearing the eb3I backlogs by Sep 30th last year but now we can expect it to happen by next 6 to 9 months.

By end of next year we can expect both the EB3I and EB2I PDs equate somewhere around 2008/2009 PDs (No MORE UPWARD porting) then we might see the movement in EB2I by reverse porting to EB3I.

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YTEleven

Thank you for your kind words and yes we can discard the 2010 date hopefully. I couldnt agree more with EB3Iwaiting and Amul. Your chart back in 2014 or 2015 kept people like me and Amul going for the past few years. Thanks for giving us hope. Forever thankful for this forum for its no nonsense discussion backed by facts and some serious number crunching based on pathetic data that was available.

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Originally Posted by EB3Iwaiting

Welcome back YT!! Missed you. Your prediction was actually great and it would have certainly happened if CO had not misallocated GCs from EB3 to other categories in the past 2 years. I am certain it happened this year too. It is amazing that you predicted it 3 years ago when all was doom and gloom in EB3I.

I too saw Amulchandra got greened. Very happy for him. Anugc is next.

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I hope so to, just like Amul we have been discussing on few forums now and its become like a routine for most of us waiting for decades here.

This was a bittersweet year for EB2 India. Good things: EB3 India dates moved fast releasing significant porting pressure from EB2 for the next year, EB2I did not retrogress and continued to make slow but steady progress throughout the year. On the negative side, dates did not move as fast as some people wished due to lack of spillover visas. Now, the next bulletin is very important. We will get to see the new revised filing dates, which will give us an initial idea about how far the final action dates are expected to progress by the end of the next year for both EB2I and EB3I.

One thing looks certain now...sometime next year, EB2I will leave 2008 behind for good!

I used to write here under the name "justvisiting" but lost my password. I have silently followed the blog over the past 4 years. Since 2013, it is amazing to see the rate of advancement of EB-3. It is unclear to me how EB-3 ROW+M demand is still lower than that of EB-2, but that is the case when you check USCIS demand data. The inevitable result has occurred, and (although likely a fluke) the latest two visa bulletins have EB-3-ROW+M as C and not EB-2-WW.
For most on EB-2-WW, this will not be an issue. The time and effort to downgrade from EB2 to EB3 is not worth it, if all you have to do is wait a couple of months. But if the trends persist, we may well see a situation in the future were EB2 and EB3 reach an equilibrium, not only for China and India, but ROW and Mexico too. It will be interesting to see where this trend goes.

Q, Spec, YTeleven, eb3iwaiting, anu,


Finally a very long journey came to an end. Yesterday I received my physical green card.

My heartfelt thanks to everyone here . This forum always gave factual information based on data. This has given me hope and kept me going for the past many years. Thank you very much.

Good luck to all those who are waiting. Hope that some sanity prevails and this backlog will be fixed soon.

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Originally Posted by amulchandra

Q, Spec, YTeleven, eb3iwaiting, anu,


Finally a very long journey came to an end. Yesterday I received my physical green card.

My heartfelt thanks to everyone here . This forum always gave factual information based on data. This has given me hope and kept me going for the past many years. Thank you very much.

Good luck to all those who are waiting. Hope that some sanity prevails and this backlog will be fixed soon.

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Congratulations!

Its been ages we saw post about someone getting greened. enjoy!

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Originally Posted by amulchandra

Q, Spec, YTeleven, eb3iwaiting, anu,


Finally a very long journey came to an end. Yesterday I received my physical green card.

My heartfelt thanks to everyone here . This forum always gave factual information based on data. This has given me hope and kept me going for the past many years. Thank you very much.

Good luck to all those who are waiting. Hope that some sanity prevails and this backlog will be fixed soon.

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Congrats, enjoy the freedom !

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Originally Posted by amulchandra

Q, Spec, YTeleven, eb3iwaiting, anu,


Finally a very long journey came to an end. Yesterday I received my physical green card.

My heartfelt thanks to everyone here . This forum always gave factual information based on data. This has given me hope and kept me going for the past many years. Thank you very much.

Good luck to all those who are waiting. Hope that some sanity prevails and this backlog will be fixed soon.

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Amul,

So pleased for you!!

Happy times.

Congratulations!! Its been some time since someone posted good news here - so good to have one of these after so long.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by amulchandra

Q, Spec, YTeleven, eb3iwaiting, anu,


Finally a very long journey came to an end. Yesterday I received my physical green card.

My heartfelt thanks to everyone here . This forum always gave factual information based on data. This has given me hope and kept me going for the past many years. Thank you very much.

Good luck to all those who are waiting. Hope that some sanity prevails and this backlog will be fixed soon.

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Got CO's latest check in with AILA, for what it's worth:

EB-2 Worldwide. The final action date for EB-2 Worldwide advances nine months in September, from April 1, 2015, to January 1, 2016. This category will become current again on October 1, 2017, and it should remain current for the foreseeable future.

EB-2 India. Smaller than anticipated EB-3 to EB-2 upgrade demand allows EB-2 India to advance one month to August 22, 2008, for September. Members should expect additional, slow movement of a few weeks at a time starting in October. It is hoped that the final action date for EB-2 India will be advanced to a date in December 2008 at some point between January and April 2018, depending on the level of EB-3 upgrade demand. Charlie is also hopeful that the final action date for EB-2 India could advance to a date in 2009 at some point during the second half of FY 2018.

EB-3 Worldwide. The EB-3 Worldwide final action date, which became current in August, is likely to remain current in October, absent significant demand materializing within the next few weeks. Demand for EB-3 Worldwide will have a significant impact on the ability of the EB-3 India final action date to advance significantly at the end of FY 2018, based on the availability of “otherwise unused” numbers.

EB-3 India. The final action date for EB-3 India advances three months in September to October 15, 2006, consistent with Charlie’s predictions. This category is expected to continue to advance at a pace of several weeks at a time as we enter the new fiscal year.

[QUOTE=EB3Iwaiting;58620]Got CO's latest check in with AILA, for what it's worth: EB-3 Worldwide. The EB-3 Worldwide final action date, which became current in August, is likely to remain current in October, absent significant demand materializing within the next few weeks. Demand for EB-3 Worldwide will have a significant impact on the ability of the EB-3 India final action date to advance significantly at the end of FY 2018, based on the availability of “otherwise unused” numbers./QUOTE]
Dear Amigo!
I could not see the above on AILA site though. We have versions of predictions from other sources such as Murthy's website but this one above looks different and really a good one for all EB3I!

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Originally Posted by EB3Iwaiting

Got CO's latest check in with AILA, for what it's worth:

EB-2 Worldwide. The final action date for EB-2 Worldwide advances nine months in September, from April 1, 2015, to January 1, 2016. This category will become current again on October 1, 2017, and it should remain current for the foreseeable future.

EB-2 India. Smaller than anticipated EB-3 to EB-2 upgrade demand allows EB-2 India to advance one month to August 22, 2008, for September. Members should expect additional, slow movement of a few weeks at a time starting in October. It is hoped that the final action date for EB-2 India will be advanced to a date in December 2008 at some point between January and April 2018, depending on the level of EB-3 upgrade demand. Charlie is also hopeful that the final action date for EB-2 India could advance to a date in 2009 at some point during the second half of FY 2018.

EB-3 Worldwide. The EB-3 Worldwide final action date, which became current in August, is likely to remain current in October, absent significant demand materializing within the next few weeks. Demand for EB-3 Worldwide will have a significant impact on the ability of the EB-3 India final action date to advance significantly at the end of FY 2018, based on the availability of “otherwise unused” numbers.

EB-3 India. The final action date for EB-3 India advances three months in September to October 15, 2006, consistent with Charlie’s predictions. This category is expected to continue to advance at a pace of several weeks at a time as we enter the new fiscal year.

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@Spectator @YTeleven and other Gurus,

Can anyone explain how the math is going to work for EB2I? See post # 245.

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...iction/page/10

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Originally Posted by HarepathekaIntezar

@Spectator @YTeleven and other Gurus,

Can anyone explain how the math is going to work for EB2I? See post # 245.

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...iction/page/10

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EB2I movement in the September VB proves that the April inventory for EB2I is incorrect. There is no way there can a reduction in inventory in 2009 and an increase in inventory in late 2008 when EB2I dates never reached those dates. Hopefully, they release the July inventory with the EB2I inventory corrected. They did not release a July one last year.

That being said, I still think some GCs were taken out of EB3 and probably given to EB2. CO did not move the EB3I dates aggressively enough thinking that EB3ROW demand will jump up. His conservative approach towards EB3 keeps hurting the entire category. How many GCs were actually moved from EB3 to EB2, we will know next year when the annual report comes out.

08/15/2017: Approaching Trial Times for DACA Community and H-4 EAD Community

Is there a possibility that the H4-EAD rule be rolled back? What's are the thoughts of the guru's and anyone having additional inputs. The whole in-efficiency seen around all departments for an advanced country just seems to be ridiculous. The one hope for spouse to work, is it going to be short lived... with so much delays in EB2 and EB3 dates.

Since 2010, below are visa numbers that were given to EB2I & EB3I. What is the biggest factor that has brought the numbers down from 2015? Is it EB1I, EBROW demand..?


2010 19961 2856
2011 23997 3954
2012 19726 2758
2013 17193 7763
2014 23527 3465
2015 7235 7003
2016 3930 4583

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Originally Posted by EB3Iwaiting

Got CO's latest check in with AILA, for what it's worth:

EB-2 Worldwide. The final action date for EB-2 Worldwide advances nine months in September, from April 1, 2015, to January 1, 2016. This category will become current again on October 1, 2017, and it should remain current for the foreseeable future.

EB-2 India. Smaller than anticipated EB-3 to EB-2 upgrade demand allows EB-2 India to advance one month to August 22, 2008, for September. Members should expect additional, slow movement of a few weeks at a time starting in October. It is hoped that the final action date for EB-2 India will be advanced to a date in December 2008 at some point between January and April 2018, depending on the level of EB-3 upgrade demand. Charlie is also hopeful that the final action date for EB-2 India could advance to a date in 2009 at some point during the second half of FY 2018.

EB-3 Worldwide. The EB-3 Worldwide final action date, which became current in August, is likely to remain current in October, absent significant demand materializing within the next few weeks. Demand for EB-3 Worldwide will have a significant impact on the ability of the EB-3 India final action date to advance significantly at the end of FY 2018, based on the availability of “otherwise unused” numbers.

EB-3 India. The final action date for EB-3 India advances three months in September to October 15, 2006, consistent with Charlie’s predictions. This category is expected to continue to advance at a pace of several weeks at a time as we enter the new fiscal year.

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DOL's perm statistics show a huge drop of approvals since mid-July. In the last 30 days, DOL processed 3000 cases (ROW 2000). It usually would be around 8000-9000. Approvals for the same period in 2016 was 9000, out of which ROW was 6000. This includes both EB2 and EB3. Assuming that there is a drop of 65% in PERM approvals, this should translate to a lower demand in the coming months. Can we assume that, if this trend continues for an year, there will be a large horizontal SO for EB2 (and EB3)? I calculated the SO to be roughly 20K based on my assumption that there will be 60% fewer cases from ROW. This leaves us with 60% of 34K (leaving india and china = 40K-6K) = roughly 20K+2.8K for EB2. Am i right in my calculation here, ofcourse assuming that the perm application received/processed is at the same rate for atleast 11 more months.

Hi Spec, Q, Gurus,

There is a user on trackitt predicting with great confidence that EB2-I will reach Jan1 2010 by FY 18 end. Has something changed, does 2018 outlook really suddenly look that good? I, along with many many others, am sure would be elated if that is the case but I am not sure it is really true.

Thanks,
4W

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Originally Posted by 4WatItsWorth

Hi Spec, Q, Gurus,

There is a user on trackitt predicting with great confidence that EB2-I will reach Jan1 2010 by FY 18 end. Has something changed, does 2018 outlook really suddenly look that good? I, along with many many others, am sure would be elated if that is the case but I am not sure it is really true.

Thanks,
4W

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I think his confidence stems from the fact that PERM processing slowed down for EB2/EB3 by almost 65% compared to last year in the last 40 days. If this trend continues, there will be a spillover of 35K into these categories (20-24k for EB2I and 10-15K for EB3I based on the ROW usage last year and taking this drop into consideration). there might be other facts too that I am not aware of

Spec/Q/YTEleven, I have been following your analysis for a long time and want to thank you for all the inputs and analysis you guys do. yo

Another delay in employment based GC will start from Oct-1


All Employment based visa to GC will go through mandatory F2F interview process.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/0...-hurdle-242050

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Originally Posted by na_dev

Another delay in employment based GC will start from Oct-1


All Employment based visa to GC will go through mandatory F2F interview process.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/0...-hurdle-242050

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Maybe it will be waived for people already here? What's the point of extreme vetting people who are already here? Then again, logic doesn't matter with Trump.

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Originally Posted by na_dev

Another delay in employment based GC will start from Oct-1


All Employment based visa to GC will go through mandatory F2F interview process.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/0...-hurdle-242050

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Anything that slows down the process is good for the backlogged applicants and anything that makes the process more efficient is bad news for the backlogged applicants. This sounds counter-intuitive, but it is true! So let's be happy!;)

Experts in the forum. not sure if this is the right thread but anyone has any idea on how much to wait after submitting RFER before initiating service requests. Also what are the steps to take. Do we raise SR first, infopass appt, contact congressman... anyone who has done this before?

its Official Now !!

https://www.uscis.gov/news/news-rele...ncy-applicants

Got the much coveted text that my card is being produced and dependents 485 has been approved. Finally wait is over after 11 long years. Thanks Spec, YTeleven,Q, Eb3iwaiting ans everyone else in this for for keeping my hopes alive with all the number crunching! You all rock!

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Originally Posted by anuprab

Got the much coveted text that my card is being produced and dependents 485 has been approved. Finally wait is over after 11 long years. Thanks Spec, YTeleven,Q, Eb3iwaiting ans everyone else in this for for keeping my hopes alive with all the number crunching! You all rock!

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Yay ! Congrats. Enjoy the new found freedom !

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Originally Posted by anuprab

Got the much coveted text that my card is being produced and dependents 485 has been approved. Finally wait is over after 11 long years. Thanks Spec, YTeleven,Q, Eb3iwaiting ans everyone else in this for for keeping my hopes alive with all the number crunching! You all rock!

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On 4/28, you were worried and wondering what you can do and on 4/29 you received the magic text. Congratulations!

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Originally Posted by EB3Iwaiting

On 4/28, you were worried and wondering what you can do and on 4/29 you received the magic text. Congratulations!

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Such is life! thanks

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Originally Posted by tatikonda

its Official Now !!

https://www.uscis.gov/news/news-rele...ncy-applicants

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Interesting, and does this make people appearing for EB1 interviews on IT end defending their special skills may become difficult and possibility to get more for EB2. Also more possible chances for rejections in all categories.

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Originally Posted by srimurthy

Interesting, and does this make people appearing for EB1 interviews on IT end defending their special skills may become difficult and possibility to get more for EB2. Also more possible chances for rejections in all categories.

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Yeah, that's what I was thinking. Could be good if more denials mean more SOFAD, but bad if one's own application is denied!

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Originally Posted by anuprab

Got the much coveted text that my card is being produced and dependents 485 has been approved. Finally wait is over after 11 long years. Thanks Spec, YTeleven,Q, Eb3iwaiting ans everyone else in this for for keeping my hopes alive with all the number crunching! You all rock!

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Congratulations!

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Originally Posted by gten20

Congratulations!

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Thanks. I hope everyone who has responded to RFE gets approved soon. this last leg of waiting was way more stressful than last 11 years. This forum has kept my sanity for the last couple of years. Cant forget YTeleven's chart, it came at a time when I had lost all hopes of getting a greencard on EB3.

July 2017 Consular Processing Figures

DOS have published the figures for July 2017 https://travel.state.gov/content/vis...issuances.html

Here's the analysis of the Employment Based Classes.

July 2017 Consular Processing - Employment Classes

Class --- China --- India --- Mexico --- Philippines---- ROW --- Total
EB1 ------- 00 ------ 2 ------- 2 ------------ 0 ---- 208 ----- 212
EB2 ------- 09 ------ 1 ------- 4 ----------- 30 ---- 224 ----- 268
EB3 ------- 09 ----- 18 ------ 18 ---------- 255 ---- 299 ----- 599
EB4 -------- 0 ----- 04 ------- 0 ------------12 ---- 202 ----- 218
EB5 ------ 444 ----- 05 ------- 3 ----------- 0 ----- 179 ----- 631

Total ---- 462 ----- 30 ------ 27 ---------- 297 ----1112 --- 1,928