EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

No one can for sure! Was it not Jan 1 2008 a Federal Holiday like every other years' :) Good Luck!

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Kanmani,

You are slipping! :)

Jan 1, 2008 would not be Current.

spec,

How many visas can they issue per day?

Any ideas guys how much it will retrogress after 2-3 months. 2006,2007????

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Q,
I also enjoy our "disagreements". Often the best learning comes out of the exchanges. On that note, I will be very disappointed if you don't contribute on the predictions front next year.

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Spec - I don't want to leave this unanswered. ... here is why ...

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...7161#post37161

Everybody, please respond to that thread if you want to discuss. Lets keep this thread focused on the main topic.

Kanmani,

What is ND?

I understand the below acronyms and abbreviations
PD - Priority Date
RD - Receipt Date
FP - Finger Printing ?
AP - Advance Parole
RFE and EAD are common but no idea about ND !!!!

A quick question about Consular processing -

My priority date is 18-Jul-2008 (EB2I). We had paid the fee to NVC in Jan-2013 and this week we have sent DS230 and civil documents package to NVC. If Jul-08 becomes current (by extreme luck!), would NVC have enough time to process the application/documents and pass on the package to Consulate ?

Thanks for your insight!

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Kanmani,

You are slipping! :)

Jan 1, 2008 would not be Current.

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Spec, I know you will catch me on this :) After switching off the computer, I thought about this . At that moment my thought was nobody could claim a 1 day miss.

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Originally Posted by ramakrpb

Kanmani,

What is ND?

I understand the below acronyms and abbreviations
PD - Priority Date
RD - Receipt Date
FP - Finger Printing ?
AP - Advance Parole
RFE and EAD are common but no idea about ND !!!!

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After en-cashing the fees, USCIS will send a notice acknowledging the Receipt of petitions. ND is Notice Date.

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

Great news finally with the August bulletin. I went back and checked the previous visa bulletins from 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011 (2012 was an exceptional year and not applicable) and in each instance, I saw on an average a 3 month jump in the September bulletin. This was especially true when the jump in August was big (like in 2008). Simply going by the past indicator, I think there will be a similar jump this year too. What do you think, Spec, Q, Kanmani and other experts?

I would be really happy if there is more spillover available, but I think CO has "conservatively" applied a good chunk of spillover in August. The "finetuning" will occur in September and I think the best case scenario is April 1, 2008, right in line of what was predicted here. Great job again Gurus.

For late 2008'ers like me and people in 2009, we need to watch how much demand will be depleted due to this PD advance. I really hope 2007 is "finished" in the sense 2006 is "finished" for EB2-I (the only demand coming from these years is porters) now and that a good portion of 2008 is also out of the way. That will help us predict the high watermark for the next FY.

This was also a disappointing year for spillover. Without the FB spillover, no advance was possible. I am disappointed that we are not even getting 13.5K (unless the PD advances too much in September), which shows that EB1 and EB2-WW combined could be slightly above their allocation. We need to keep an eye on the inventory report to guesstimate how the demand will shape next year. Historically, EB2-I has gone through lean patches (2008 was one), but the spillover was bountiful in other years (2011). One scary thought is that the bad spillover was probably due to recession and now that we are almost out of it, we might not see anything like this again! Look at this year itself. Demand from EB1, EB2-WW and EB5 is almost enough to deplete their numbers. If the DOS is already doing their best to manage this demand and if the inventory shows a high number, I think we are in trouble for next year and we have to look for that fairy tale bill known as CIR.

My outlook on future is unfortunately dire at this point. I met plenty of people who have filed in 2011 and 2012 in the desi gatherings here and I have shared some of my knowledge thanks to you guys. Frankly, I don't know what to tell them. It has been 2 years since the PD advanced to April 2007 and in 2 years, the PD advancement has no kept up with real time - assuming all 2008 GCs account for 30% of total demand of that year, the "effective" PD advance at the end of this FY barring any further advancement is only 11 months...EB2-I hasn't gotten a good year for 2 years in a row and after 2009, the demand only seems to shoot up. I know porting will end/subside one day but that day is too far. In August, I expect at least a couple of thousand of porting applications from 2005-2007 crowd and retrogression will surely take place by November.

Good luck to everyone and congratulations on those who are current.

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first, past performance in the case of GC is not an indicator of future performance if you look only at EB. As you know there are many variables that determine spillover including the mother of all - CO's brain.

second, EB2WW usage this year is also an anomaly due to the backlog from last year. The actual usage while slightly up is not yielding SO because its consuming its quota (and perhaps more) to fulfill 6 months of backlog from FY12.

thirdly, FB to EB spillover is always a variable. In most years, we have got something (spec has the data somewhere)..this year was particularly high but even 2000 FB spillover translates to 1 month movement.

fourth, ive said this before too - CIR will not help folks with PDs 2008 to early 2009 purely because of date of enactment (if it ever happens) and movement of COD until then. I personally believe, the COD will move in to early 2009 by the end of FY14 but that's just a guess at this time.

My two cents......

I think we got the EB2 numbers from FA not FD, next months we can see FD. My Theory..............

Looks like PERM processing has slowed down . Currently the perm processing has hit major road block and sitting @ Jan 13 since last two months. So for the last two months we have to assume that EB2 ROW hasn't applied much of the AOS applications. Gurus estimated around 2000/2500 applications for EB2 ROW's per month, so for two moths EB2 unused/unfilled will be around 4000/5000 and 3, 188 availability from Family based, combined together we are seeing around 7188/8188. Based on demand data which we got last month, 8050 is number of EB2I applications preadjusted.

I hope my theory is correct and we will see more EB2I Movement.

Aug VB: EB2
Ind Jan08/ China Aug08 (no movement)

"These changes for the Family F2A, and India Employment Second preference categories reflect actions which have been taken based on current applicant demand patterns. Readers should expect that some type of “corrective” action will be required at some point during FY-2014 in an effort to maintain number use within the applicable annual limits. Such action would involve the establishment and retrogression of such cut-off dates, and could occur at any time. "

Good news finally EB2-I moved to 01-JAN-2008.

Congratulations to current folks. I am thinking we might further advance to mid 2008 in August. I would watch out for hints by CO to lawyers associations etc.

Be ready to respond to any RFE or file 485 asap. This window will come otherwise after a year unless CIR.

sportsfan,

In many ways it is difficult to disagree with much you have said.

Going forward, EB2-I needs about 20k visas a year to move forward one year (slightly less through 2009 and more afterwards) just to keep net retrogression constant.

There are some signs of potential tailwinds for FY2014 (some are perhaps a little speculative).

a) Since we are back to a normal visa usage, EB2-WW might give some Fall Across, even if it might not be much.

b) The extending PERM certification times may create a bit of a hole for EB2-WW numbers in FY2014 if DOL don't instigate a backlog reduction process.

c) CO has made F2A current from August. Given that is so late in the year, FB may fall short of the 226k visas available to them again, leading to extra EB numbers in FY2014.

The problem is that even those are unlikely to bring the number of visas available to EB2-I to a level that would allow a year's progression of the COD. As a result, EB2-I retrogression in real terms is likely to get worse. I judge the real retrogression based on the latest date the COD reaches in a FY when it is not in "build an Inventory" mode. e.g. if the COD reached 01APR08 this year, then real retrogression would be September 1, 2013 minus April 1, 2008 or about 5.4 years.

As I have now gotten over the shock of date movement and COD missing my PD by 2.5 months, I have couple of questions about the date movement:

Is the date movement done in the current VB accommodates for the following scenarios:

1. An x% of people who have PD before 2008-1-1 and have i-485 filed might still not get GC issued due to some reason or the other. This should give out some visas to be reallocated. Has CO already added a buffer to accommodate for these extra visas in the cut-off date or could we see little movement in the upcoming months?
2. Does the current date movement accounts for all the spillover or is there some spillover that CO is holding on to apply in Sep VB?

Thanks,

Does anyone have access to good document which can help me understand if I need to wait till August 1 for interfiling my wifes application to my 485 or can do it now? Lawyer recommends waiting till August 1. Her EB2 date is current with August bulletin whereas my EB3 is not.

She is dependant on my EB3 application.. sorry i forgot to mention that part.

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Originally Posted by sandyn16

She is dependant on my EB3 application.. sorry i forgot to mention that part.

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Does she have a second I-485 pending under EB2 ?

So she doesnt, she has 140 approved. Per lawyers from both sides, she does not need to file new 485, they just need to interfile her application with my 485 so then she becomes primary and I become derivative.

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Originally Posted by redsox2009

My two cents......

I think we got the EB2 numbers from FA not FD, next months we can see FD. My Theory..............

Looks like PERM processing has slowed down . Currently the perm processing has hit major road block and sitting @ Jan 13 since last two months. So for the last two months we have to assume that EB2 ROW hasn't applied much of the AOS applications. Gurus estimated around 2000/2500 applications for EB2 ROW's per month, so for two moths EB2 unused/unfilled will be around 4000/5000 and 3, 188 availability from Family based, combined together we are seeing around 7188/8188. Based on demand data which we got last month, 8050 is number of EB2I applications preadjusted.

I hope my theory is correct and we will see more EB2I Movement.

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I think you may be onto something here, although my conclusion isn't really very optimistic. CO's historical reluctance to consider demand that isn't yet visible in the demand data (here, EB3I to EB2I porting demand, and EB3ROW to EB2ROW porting demand still being processed) would mean that he would move the dates farther than an organically sustainable date. So, I surmise that he hasn't actually taken FD into consideration, but that doesn't mean much because he hasn't taken porting into consideration either. To the extent EB3I to EB2I porting demand kicks in between August 1st and 10th, it will mitigate partially the FD that CO will calculate as being available and it will affect how far he'll move the dates in the September bulletin. If the porting doesn't kick in by Aug 10th, he will move the dates further forward, but porting will still kick in by August end, so the dates will have been moved too far ahead and at some point in September the visa numbers for the year will run out.

So to summarize, either a) CO will see the porting demand kick in and move the dates cautiously in the Sep bulletin, or b) he'll not see the dates kick in and move the dates aggressively in the Sep bulletin, but a large number of people current as of the Sep bulletin may not get their GCs before dates retrogress in Oct.

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Originally Posted by desitiger

Is the date movement done in the current VB accommodates for the following scenarios:
1. An x% of people who have PD before 2008-1-1 and have i-485 filed might still not get GC issued due to some reason or the other. This should give out some visas to be reallocated. Has CO already added a buffer to accommodate for these extra visas in the cut-off date or could we see little movement in the upcoming months?
2. Does the current date movement accounts for all the spillover or is there some spillover that CO is holding on to apply in Sep VB?
Thanks,

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1. If an application is pre-adjudicated, it will receive a green card automatically. I don't think CO has considered the very small % of applications that will be denied (due to unsatisfactory RFE responses), but I expect that to be a very small %.
2. I think most of us believe that the current movement does not account for all spillover. Some of us believe that Fall Across from EB1, EB4 and EB5 is not included, and others believe it is included but that there will likely be a small additional movement in September as more information becomes available about EB1, EB2ROW, and EB4 usage.

Does USCIS have any document mentioning same? Just so I can use it to convince the lawyer

Kanmani, I am in Eb3 to Eb2 porting with 2005 PD, should i wait for August 1 st to contact USCIS to raise SR for Interfiling or can i do it now.

CO clearly refrained from making even slight indications as to future movement... essentially he was saying in FY14 the dates will retrogess at some point (public knowledge) and follwed it up with very helpful prediction that ....that point can occur anytime. In the absence of any explicit information we have no choice but to resort to underlying motivations for the ambiguity..

I think the dates will definitely move bit more aggressively in the next VB ... especially as CO as already made his disclaimer. Release the dates till all current Visa # are exhausted (before new demand creeps in from porting). Judging by the numbers presented in the thread... likely till Aug/Sep 2008.

Another point would be "lack of movement" for EB2 China... I doubt that EB3 China porting would cause this ....as it's PD is ahead of EB2C. Maybe they are intending to bring EB2C and EB2I to same PD ... which might likely be around Sep/Oct 2008.... I won't be surprised if it even goes into 2009, what is there to loose... if more demand sets in they can always retrogress. The preference, IMHO, would be to not hold the preadjudicated cases in backlog for too long.

Teddy - I hope you wouldn't mind if I shared your good news on the forum right?

Guys,

Teddy recently had his second child - a son. So in case you are looking for him - he is probably up around 3 am changing diapers ;)

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Good news finally EB2-I moved to 01-JAN-2008.

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Just a thought. remaining SOFAD for Eb2IC is dependent on EB1+EB2WW+porting usage between now and August 10.

For all intents and purposes, EB1 and EB2WW usage is done for this year (everything in inventory up to Jun 30 will likely get approved). Given the timing and lead time to approve 485s, it is unlikely that any new applications from those categories will get approved in FY13. The only variable now is EB3 to EB2 porting - particularly EB3I to EB2I. Since porting is usually a "flick the switch" type exercise, I would imagine that the real demand would be known within the first week itself.

The point being that I don't see a scenario where CO moves the dates aggressively due to uncertainty. He will have very very good line of sight in to demand and usage. The good thing about this is that there will be a good semblance of FIFO and all demand upto 2007 should be cleared (except for some stragglers).

thoughts?

Congrats Teddy

hope you will find time to relax a bit :)

Hey Teddy,
Congratulations. Was wondering if you had abandoned us after your GC.

Nice to see you here again.

-Vik

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Originally Posted by vizcard

Just a thought. remaining SOFAD for Eb2IC is dependent on EB1+EB2WW+porting usage between now and August 10.

For all intents and purposes, EB1 and EB2WW usage is done for this year (everything in inventory up to Jun 30 will likely get approved). Given the timing and lead time to approve 485s, it is unlikely that any new applications from those categories will get approved in FY13. The only variable now is EB3 to EB2 porting - particularly EB3I to EB2I. Since porting is usually a "flick the switch" type exercise, I would imagine that the real demand would be known within the first week itself.

The point being that I don't see a scenario where CO moves the dates aggressively due to uncertainty. He will have very very good line of sight in to demand and usage. The good thing about this is that there will be a good semblance of FIFO and all demand upto 2007 should be cleared (except for some stragglers).

thoughts?

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Originally Posted by vizcard

My sense is that he will move it to the furthest date he feels he can surely cover. no more no less. Whether thats July 2007, Dec 2007 or Feb 2008..I don't know. The Sept move will be whatever is left over.

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I remembered one of your earlier posts as soon as August VB came out, I think this holds really well where we are today(so copied above). I agree completely that next move will not be aggressive and will be just few more months.

As a side note: Congrats to all who got current in August VB and All the Best. Congrats Teddy, each baby adds a new perspective to life. God Bless:))

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

Converting an existing Primary petition to a Dependent status doesn't require the COD to be current. You could have done it already.

This is totally different from EB3 to EB2 conversion .

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Mine is Eb3 to Eb2 porting case with PD on 03/25/2005. Should i wait till August 1st to raise SR for interfiling or can i raise it now that VB is released. Thanks.

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

If these patterns hold for a few more months, then we might easily reach 2009. That could be a possible headline for the next year's thread.

I believe the final date will be April 2008, which won't really be bad after the stall for the last 16 months.

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With your assumption of April 2008 (assuming April 1, 2008), we would need approx. 12-14K SOFAD (which includes normal allocation) to get to 2009. I believe that it won't be hard to get to this number.

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Originally Posted by sandyn16

Does USCIS have any document mentioning same? Just so I can use it to convince the lawyer

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I was digging into USCIS documents to find one as required by you. Here I am going to call back my earlier posts as I was wrong.

Converting an existing Primary petition to a Dependent status does require the COD must be current.

I apologize for the confusion.

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Originally Posted by chittoor

Mine is Eb3 to Eb2 porting case with PD on 03/25/2005. Should i wait till August 1st to raise SR for interfiling or can i raise it now that VB is released. Thanks.

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Chitoor,

Attorneys' in general are sending the written request well in advance with an exception of few. USCIS will not act upon the case until the PD is current. So go with your attorney's decision.

Teddy, Congratulations!

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Originally Posted by redsox2009

My two cents......

I think we got the EB2 numbers from FA not FD, next months we can see FD. My Theory..............

Looks like PERM processing has slowed down . Currently the perm processing has hit major road block and sitting @ Jan 13 since last two months. So for the last two months we have to assume that EB2 ROW hasn't applied much of the AOS applications. Gurus estimated around 2000/2500 applications for EB2 ROW's per month, so for two moths EB2 unused/unfilled will be around 4000/5000 and 3, 188 availability from Family based, combined together we are seeing around 7188/8188. Based on demand data which we got last month, 8050 is number of EB2I applications preadjusted.

I hope my theory is correct and we will see more EB2I Movement.

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redsox,

I totally agree with you that very few EB2-WW cases with a 2013 PD will be approved this FY. Unfortunately, I believe the slowdown in PERM has come too late to have much effect on this year's figures.

I do not have sufficient information to talk about EB2-M or EB2-P.

EB2-ROW currently have about 200 active pending I-485 primary Trackitt cases.

Of those about 135 have a confirmed I-140 approval and are only waiting for the I-485 to be adjudicated. The number is probably nearer 150. By the end of the year, all will have been waiting at least 3 months since the I-140 approval.

Only somewhere between a third and half of those cases need to be approved for EB2-ROW to hit their revised allocation of 32,535 (which includes the additional 3,707 due to FB).

I can't share your optimism.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Teddy - I hope you wouldn't mind if I shared your good news on the forum right?

Guys,

Teddy recently had his second child - a son. So in case you are looking for him - he is probably up around 3 am changing diapers ;)

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Teddy,

Many congratulations!

What a glutton for punishment.

Congrats Teddy!!!

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Teddy - I hope you wouldn't mind if I shared your good news on the forum right?

Guys,

Teddy recently had his second child - a son. So in case you are looking for him - he is probably up around 3 am changing diapers ;)

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Originally Posted by vizcard

With your assumption of April 2008 (assuming April 1, 2008), we would need approx. 12-14K SOFAD (which includes normal allocation) to get to 2009. I believe that it won't be hard to get to this number.

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vizcard,

That is an extra 12-14k SOFAD plus next year's porting numbers (plus any cases "left behind" this year (although as a rolling number they can maybe be discounted)).

At perhaps 4k porting, the number suddenly becomes 16-18k. Without some help from extra FB numbers, that might be a stretch IMO.

Q, bieber, geevikram, MATT2012 , sportsfan33 , Kanmani , Spectator and all friends thanks a lot for your warm wishes. I cannot imagine life not being on the immigration forums! yes things have been busy with a lot of things including the new one. Feels good really that finally all 2007 folks will be greened this Aug.

Very nicely laid out sportsfan33.

I agree, the net forward movement has certainly been disappointing in EB2-I (in terms of GC issuance, so excluding the forward moves to generate demand and the backward moves to suppress porting)

FY 2012 - 4-months (15-Apr-2007 in Sep-2011 to 15-Aug-2007 in May-2012, after that EB2-I became unavailable. May be we can add 2-3 months to account for GCs issued to 2008 PDs. )

FY 2013 - 4.5 months so far (15-Aug-2007 in May-2012 to 01-Jan-08 in Aug-2013). Probably another 3 months in Sep bulletin.


So overall 7-8 months a year in last two years.

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

Great news finally with the August bulletin. I went back and checked the previous visa bulletins from 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011 (2012 was an exceptional year and not applicable) and in each instance, I saw on an average a 3 month jump in the September bulletin. This was especially true when the jump in August was big (like in 2008). Simply going by the past indicator, I think there will be a similar jump this year too.

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