EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

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Originally Posted by donvar

What updates have your heard?

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#1 There is increased activity in EB-2 due to denials / rejections in EB-1, thus compelling people to "move down" to EB-2 and apply. When DOS said that there are 12000+ visas from EB-1, people got ecstatic without realizing that they will apply in EB-2 instead. Net result, almost no spillover from EB-2

#2 People migrating from EB-3 to EB-2 is very close to 10,000

#3 EB-2 will not cross November 2006

The Attorney is not known for sharing predictions or feelings, but only facts and they have always proved to be true.

Telugubidda

in the last visa bulletin, there was a sentence that I quoted to Teddy in this thread which gives you an idea, there will be definitely some spill across possible from EB2-ROW. This is after DOS considering the porting.

TeluguBidda, Thanks for sharing information.

With all due respect, I'm not sure about (1) and so, I must say that (3) is also not very accurate.
Here is the reason for (1): Your Attorney is right that rejections in EB1 will spike Eb2. However, that will not impact the dates movement at all. Almost NILL. Reason: EB1 had always been current, so people who fall back will fall back behind the current EB2-folks. Yes, you must count EB2-ROW, but again, that's not going to matter much for this year.

with that explanation, (3) could be way off

My 2cents...

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Originally Posted by TeluguBidda

#1 There is increased activity in EB-2 due to denials / rejections in EB-1, thus compelling people to "move down" to EB-2 and apply. When DOS said that there are 12000+ visas from EB-1, people got ecstatic without realizing that they will apply in EB-2 instead. Net result, almost no spillover from EB-2

#2 People migrating from EB-3 to EB-2 is very close to 10,000

#3 EB-2 will not cross November 2006

The Attorney is not known for sharing predictions or feelings, but only facts and they have always proved to be true.

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Even if people file in EB2 instead of EB1 (#1 in your post), is that a concern? They would have a PD in 2010/2011. Unless ofcourse if they can port their EB1 PD. I do not think many people will have PD in 2006/2007 for EB1 and have rejections/denials after 3 or 4 years since EB1 has been current for a while.

Am i missing something?

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Originally Posted by TeluguBidda

#1 There is increased activity in EB-2 due to denials / rejections in EB-1, thus compelling people to "move down" to EB-2 and apply. When DOS said that there are 12000+ visas from EB-1, people got ecstatic without realizing that they will apply in EB-2 instead. Net result, almost no spillover from EB-2

#2 People migrating from EB-3 to EB-2 is very close to 10,000

#3 EB-2 will not cross November 2006

The Attorney is not known for sharing predictions or feelings, but only facts and they have always proved to be true.

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yes, in references in bieber's post, the last vb did make references to unused numbers from eb1 and eb2 - unlikely they would include eb2 unless they were certain of some fall across...

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Originally Posted by skpanda

Even if people file in EB2 instead of EB1 (#1 in your post), is that a concern? They would have a PD in 2010/2011. Unless ofcourse if they can port their EB1 PD. I do not think many people will have PD in 2006/2007 for EB1 and have rejections/denials after 3 or 4 years since EB1 has been current for a while.

Am i missing something?

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EB-2 ROW always has been current. So, people who intended to apply in EB-1 with current priority dates will be able to do the same in EB-2. Please note, I was not referring to EB-2IC earlier, I was referring to EB-2 as a whole

It matters when the people filing are ROW because EB2 ROW has always been current.

Having said that I think not all EB1 can find an employer to file EB2. Secondly 25% of EB1 or IC. Thirdly porting couldn't be that high because we need to see corresponding EB3 reduction at some point of time.

However, I do think that there is a significant risk because just looking at PERM numbers EB2ROW can produce sufficient demand within the category.

Now if ROW yields 0 to EB2IC, EB2IC can still have 12-16K from EB1 and upto 8K from EB5. That will barely move the date to nov-dec 06 as TB's lawyer said.

Trackitt trend today however does point to 32K net SOFAD rather than 20-24K net SOFAD. Which makes Mar-Apr a possibility. Question is will we see ramp up in EB2 ROW approvals. We will continue to update "FACTS and DATA" section. Meanwhile ... somebody if you know how to figure out EB4/5 consumption pls let us know.

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Originally Posted by skpanda

Even if people file in EB2 instead of EB1 (#1 in your post), is that a concern? They would have a PD in 2010/2011. Unless ofcourse if they can port their EB1 PD. I do not think many people will have PD in 2006/2007 for EB1 and have rejections/denials after 3 or 4 years since EB1 has been current for a while.

Am i missing something?

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Originally Posted by TeluguBidda

#1 There is increased activity in EB-2 due to denials / rejections in EB-1, thus compelling people to "move down" to EB-2 and apply. When DOS said that there are 12000+ visas from EB-1, people got ecstatic without realizing that they will apply in EB-2 instead. Net result, almost no spillover from EB-2

#2 People migrating from EB-3 to EB-2 is very close to 10,000

#3 EB-2 will not cross November 2006

The Attorney is not known for sharing predictions or feelings, but only facts and they have always proved to be true.

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Thanks. I wanted to hear any facts about porting numbers as this is something our Gurus aren't sure because lack of data.

Personally , I believe who have PD till July 2007 will some how sail through but people after that will be stuck in unending retrogression.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Trackitt trend today however does point to 32K net SOFAD rather than 20-24K net SOFAD. Which makes Mar-Apr a possibility. Question is will we see ramp up in EB2 ROW approvals. We will continue to update "FACTS and DATA" section. Meanwhile ... somebody if you know how to figure out EB4/5 consumption pls let us know.

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I personally feel that Trackitt data is miniscule and therefore cannot be extrapolated to capture statistics. History is testimonial to that conclusion. We should ask ourselves, "Did our predictions come true in Visa bulletins anywhere close, anytime in the past". My answer is NO.

We need (a) Used up EB #s and preferably FB #s from DOS, preferably, by Category if not Country-wise; (b) Pending EB inventory from USCIS (including local office #s); (c) Pending EB inventory at Consular posts and finally; (d) DOL numbers from the current fiscal year.

It is tough to understand why DOS does not publish "used up" #s, unless my knowledge is limited.

We can live in as much denial as we want and keep on crunching numbers as per our vested interest. End of the day, truth is every lawyer in the town thinks that porting numbers are high and also DOS believes upgrade demand was worthwhile mentioning in the bulletin. Yes there may be a gimmick over here that lawyers want more business, but with every forum post of successful EB3 to EB2 porting, every 10 new people have either became aware of it or started looking into this option. People wo are not on forum get to learn about this from their friends and their success story.

The whole point is why DOS went and looked into EB1 demand so early in the year. Whether there was a concern that available annual visa number were far less then to meet current upgrade demand and hence Mr. Big O thought .. hey let me check with USCIS on EB1 demand and see if we have something available that we can use now else I have to retrogress EB2-I.

Trackitt data is statistically very significant and quite reliable from understanding consumption. However what it doesn't do is: "It can't forecast how USCIS will or will not accelerate consumption in certain categories". So that is the fair limitation on it.

If you followed this thread from its old location last year you will see that we defied the USCIS's assertion that the dates will NOT move beyond sep 2005. We were already predicting dates between Jun 06 and Feb 07 last year. Eventually the date fell in May 06. And this also wouldn't have happened if USCIS didn't do massive PERM cleanup.

So again the core problem in any forecasting remains the same .... HOW to PREDICT FUTURE BEHAVIOR ESPECIALLY WHEN THE OUTCOME IS A FUNCTION OF POLICY RATHER THAN MARKET DYNAMICS. You can put variables on market dynamics. You can't put variables on whats going in somebody's mind (in this case USCIS)!

So publishing how much visas are used until today doesn't do much good since USCIS can and will if they want to accelerate processing in certain categories vs others. They have enough levers to serve whatever policy objective they are trying to fulfil.

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Originally Posted by TeluguBidda

I personally feel that Trackitt data is miniscule and therefore cannot be extrapolated to capture statistics. History is testimonial to that conclusion. We should ask ourselves, "Did our predictions come true in Visa bulletins anywhere close, anytime in the past". My answer is NO.

We need (a) Used up EB #s and preferably FB #s from DOS, preferably, by Category if not Country-wise; (b) Pending EB inventory from USCIS (including local office #s); (c) Pending EB inventory at Consular posts and finally; (d) DOL numbers from the current fiscal year.

It is tough to understand why DOS does not publish "used up" #s, unless my knowledge is limited.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Meanwhile ... somebody if you know how to figure out EB4/5 consumption pls let us know.

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The only way I can think of is by looking at the completions for I-360 and I-526 using the "National Processing and Trends" data at http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm...71&charttype=1. It has data till Feb'11.

I-360 completions = 5010 till Feb-11, i.e. 5 months (Quota is 10000) So, I think it is going to be exhausted -> Zero spillover.
I-526 completions = 425 till Feb-11, i.e. 5 months (Quota is 10000 again). Therefore even if it hits 1500, leftovers might be 8.5k.

Please correct me if I am totally wrong.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Trackitt data is statistically very significant and quite reliable from understanding consumption. However what it doesn't do is: "It can't forecast how USCIS will or will not accelerate consumption in certain categories". So that is the fair limitation on it.

If you followed this thread from its old location last year you will see that we defied the USCIS's assertion that the dates will NOT move beyond sep 2005. We were already predicting dates between Jun 06 and Feb 07 last year. Eventually the date fell in May 06. And this also wouldn't have happened if USCIS didn't do massive PERM cleanup.

So again the core problem in any forecasting remains the same .... HOW to PREDICT FUTURE BEHAVIOR ESPECIALLY WHEN THE OUTCOME IS A FUNCTION OF POLICY RATHER THAN MARKET DYNAMICS. You can put variables on market dynamics. You can't put variables on whats going in somebody's mind (in this case USCIS)!

So publishing how much visas are used until today doesn't do much good since USCIS can and will if they want to accelerate processing in certain categories vs others. They have enough levers to serve whatever policy objective they are trying to fulfil.

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Well said, regarding policy implementation, etc. I am in agreement.

I find it tough to agree on Trackitt reliance. Simply because the # of people having profiles is less than 1% of all people waiting to get GC. Thus, I feel that the total is statistically not significant (or reliable) enough to compute and conclude. May be I am wrong and that is okay, I can live with ignorance as I have lived that way all along due to endless wait on the GC.

TB all of us are frustrated. I think personally it has helped me to be in a forum and talk with others similar to me. The good thing is by now we all are mature enough to know that things can go eitherway and people no loger chase visa bulletins the way they used to do earlier. Interestingly Teddy made this observation with me the other day and I must credit the observation to him!

Regarding statistically significant .. I am not a statistician but what i remember is .... it has to do with size rather than %. Whatever little statistic I did Loooooooooong back in 1992 ... I remember that sometimes you can predict behavior of an infinite distribution just by having 27 neutral data points! The size of course varies as per what tests or distributions you are trying to predict.

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Originally Posted by TeluguBidda

Well said, regarding policy implementation, etc. I am in agreement.

I find it tough to agree on Trackitt reliance. Simply because the # of people having profiles is less than 1% of all people waiting to get GC. Thus, I feel that the total is statistically not significant (or reliable) enough to compute and conclude. May be I am wrong and that is okay, I can live with ignorance as I have lived that way all along due to endless wait on the GC.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

AC only add up the green color. That will give you 32.

That section doesn't have reply all on purpose. So that we only use it to post factual data and if somebody wants to discuss we can do it here.

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Q,

Thankful if you or any one provide me break-up of arriving at 32. Sorry for the inconvenience.

Thanks,
gcw07

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Originally Posted by gcwait2007

Thankful if you or any one provide me break-up of arriving at 32.

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You mean break it up beyond what is here?
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...=1716#post1716

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Originally Posted by anuran

You mean break it up beyond what is here?
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...=1716#post1716

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Thank you, anuran.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Regarding statistically significant .. I am not a statistician but what i remember is .... it has to do with size rather than %. Whatever little statistic I did Loooooooooong back in 1992 ... I remember that sometimes you can predict behavior of an infinite distribution just by having 27 neutral data points! The size of course varies as per what tests or distributions you are trying to predict.

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27 neutral data points will work if you can live with 19% margin of error (confidence interval) under entire population of 40,000 with 95% confidence level. In order to have 5% margin of error for 40,000 people (annual quota on any category) with 95% confidence level, which is common in statistics, you will need sample size of atleast 381. So in your SOFAD calculation based on trackitt, EB2-ROW data has enough samples to predict normal distribution. So 28,000 could turn into real demand if trackitt data will convert into YTD data you predict. Sample size would change by 2 for 28,800 visas.

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Originally Posted by shaumack

with every forum post of successful EB3 to EB2 porting, every 10 new people have either became aware of it or started looking into this option.
... I think its not that easy that 10K of all retrogressed people can have their employer agree to upgrade which essentially is nothing but filing an entire new labor + perm.

The whole point is why DOS went and looked into EB1 demand so early in the year. Whether there was a concern that available annual visa number were far less then to meet current upgrade demand
I think you make a good point here. That could be the reason.

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Originally Posted by anuran

The only way I can think of is by looking at the completions for I-360 and I-526 using the "National Processing and Trends" data at http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm...71&charttype=1. It has data till Feb'11.

I-360 completions = 5010 till Feb-11, i.e. 5 months (Quota is 10000) So, I think it is going to be exhausted -> Zero spillover.
I-526 completions = 425 till Feb-11, i.e. 5 months (Quota is 10000 again). Therefore even if it hits 1500, leftovers might be 8.5k.

Please correct me if I am totally wrong.

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Thanks. I-360 situation looks hopeless. One can't expect anything there. I-526 looks equally promising as last year. So 8K doesn't sound far fetched.

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Originally Posted by shaumack

27 neutral data points will work if you can live with 19% margin of error (confidence interval) under entire population of 40,000 with 95% confidence level. In order to have 5% margin of error for 40,000 people (annual quota on any category) with 95% confidence level, which is common in statistics, you will need sample size of atleast 381. So in your SOFAD calculation based on trackitt, EB2-ROW data has enough samples to predict normal distribution. So 28,000 could turn into real demand if trackitt data will convert into YTD data you predict. Sample size would change by 2 for 28,800 visas.

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Thanks Shaumack.. good info.

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Originally Posted by TeluguBidda

I find it tough to agree on Trackitt reliance. Simply because the # of people having profiles is less than 1% of all people waiting to get GC. Thus, I feel that the total is statistically not significant (or reliable) enough to compute and conclude. May be I am wrong and that is okay, I can live with ignorance as I have lived that way all along due to endless wait on the GC.

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TeluguBidda,

There was a recent thread about this on Trackitt. I haven't checked the exact figures, but they sound about right.

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Based on last years approvals for Employment Based cases:

EB1 - < 1%

EB2-I - 7%
EB2-C - < 1%
EB2-P - 1%
EB2-ROW - 2%

EB3-I - 4%
EB3-C - < 1%
EB3-P - < 1%
EB3-ROW - c. 1%

Mexico numbers are insignificant.

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Certainly, EB2-ROW has stood up remarkably well in the past, as far as consistency and predicting approvals goes.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Keep figers crossed ... mine is mar 27 07 :cool:

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Mine is 02/20/2007. Whenever I think about the PD and the edge, I am getting
anxiety:( So I am forcing myself to think about something else, other than GC.

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Originally Posted by gcwait2007

Mine is 02/20/2007. Whenever I think about the PD and the edge, I am getting
anxiety:( So I am forcing myself to think about something else, other than GC.

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gcwait2007,
Don't worry you will get a chance this year!

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Certainly, EB2-ROW has stood up remarkably well in the past, as far as consistency and predicting approvals goes.

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Spec,
Agree,

Just to add South Korea Case(may not be related to the discussion)
FY 2010 - PERM certifications = 4,610
FY 2011 - 1/2 Year PERM certifications = 1,899

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Originally Posted by veni001

Spec,
Agree,

Just to add South Korea Case(may not be related to the discussion)
FY 2010 - PERM certifications = 4,610
FY 2011 - 1/2 Year PERM certifications = 1,899

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South Korea is consistently using more visa numbers than 5600 (EB2 +EB3) but they are still not classified as retrogressed country which is quite unfair. But I think at one point Spec talked about under utilized visa numbers by S.Korea in FB category and how it is justified. But this is unfair to other ROW countries I guess.

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Originally Posted by shaumack

South Korea is consistently using more visa numbers than 5600 (EB2 +EB3) but they are still not classified as retrogressed country which is quite unfair. But I think at one point Spec talked about under utilized visa numbers by S.Korea in FB category and how it is justified. But this is unfair to other ROW countries I guess.

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shaumack,
DOS/USCIS definition (interpretation) of retrogression is based on total (EB+FB) approvals{7% of (226k+140k)} than just one. As long as their interpretation is valid all non-retrogressed countries(not only South Korea) can get as much EB2 allocation as possible!