It says the EB2I movement is to utilize EB2 quota. Does that mean any spillover from EB5, EB1 is not taken into account yet?
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It says the EB2I movement is to utilize EB2 quota. Does that mean any spillover from EB5, EB1 is not taken into account yet?
Spec - EB3C actually had pretty much stalled in July bulletin and that's why I had a feeling that EB2I would move to catch up with EB2C.
But now that it hasn't I believe Sep does have the potential to have that movement.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Quote:
Originally Posted by bieber
Everything is accounted for...
Man ...I really hope it reaches may 08 in next VB...but logically it will stay around March 15...in next VBQuote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
it would a big surprise if EB2 spillover itself can move dates to 2008. I think it is just the wording in the bulletin.
Guru's
Any idea if there can be further movement next month ?
IMHO if there aint any movement next month, we will see EB2 I either stay at Jan 2008 for few months (or 10 months just like this year) or retrogress (as mentioned in the bulletin).
Although the bulletin doesn't give any indication of sep movement here is what it does:
A) It talked of retrogression only in FY 2014. So that's a good thing. At least Jan 08 will definitely be cleared now and it ensures FIFO ... in other words ... much less likelihood that people ahead in line don't get approved vs behind in line do.
B) EB3C date hasn't moved .... to me it means potential for EB2I to catch up through SOFAD and so I would expect some movement in Sep. Dont know how much. But it will be a measured movement for sure. I can't see a jerky movement. So bottomline anywhere between 0-6 months.
What is a little surprising is that in the July Bulletin is was stated that EB2-C would have movement up to 2 months and there was no movement for that category this month.
Why would they stall the Eb2 C movement like this? Has EB2C used up its allocation which resulted from the fall-down from unused visa for FB category?
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I assume you mean EB2-C, not EB3-C.
Movement to date for EB2-C has been:
- VB ------ COD---
Aug 13 - 08-Aug-08
Jul 13 - 08-Aug-08
Jun 13 - 15-Jul-08
May 13 - 15-May-08
Apr 13 - 01-Apr-08
Mar 13 - 15-Feb-08
Jan 13 - 15-Jan-08
Feb 13 - 08-Dec-07
Dec 12 - 22-Oct-07
Nov 12 - 01-Sep-07
Oct 12 - 15-Jul-07
so I don't understand your comment about stalling in the July VB - it had slowed slightly, but it was still 3 weeks movement.
As natvyas points out, it is out of kilter with what the July VB had said.
Spec - Indeed I meant EB2C. I was so much hung up on that even when I was reading EB3C it registered as EB2C.
Anyway ... but that's what I am thinking that EB2IC will probably catch up in the best case scenario). WE will see.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Congratulations to all who are current per Aug VB. Hope every one gets GC this FY. Good luck all !
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I hope your interpretation is correct.
The numbers available to EB2-C are partly dependent on the amount of FD from EB1. I hope that EB2-C coming to a halt is not because CO now thinks there will be less available from that source. It may also hint that there have been large numbers of new applications/porting generated for EB2-C by the continued forward movement. We don't have very good visibility on EB2-C numbers of actual approvals (either official or derived).
As per DD/Inventory look up, it looks like 8K SO to move dates to JAN 01 2008. How much more spillover do you guys think we will have to move forward in the month of Sep ? Looking at previous years, we should have another 8K will takes us to Jul 2008 ....
Oh yes ... what I laid out is a possibility and hope rather than interpretation. But honestly 1 Jan 08 in August is a good start.
I am more than 50% confident that Sep we will see something more upto 6 monthsQuote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
My PD is July 07 2008 and hoping to be current next monthQuote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Porting might consume the remaining spill over if any..Quote:
Originally Posted by fedupwithgc
By the time porting numbers reach the demand, we would have crossed the FY since it takes couple of months to get fingerprinting done plus RFE, if any. So I am thinking people who are applying in AUG have no chance to get approved by end of FY.Quote:
Originally Posted by Guest123
Any chance of date moving beyond March 2008 this fiscal? Never filed I-485 and missed it this time by two months :(Quote:
Originally Posted by fedupwithgc
EB3 porters (Sep 2004 - Aug 2007) who already filed for 485 and ported to EB2 might consume a big chunk of the spillover. I assume these are not included in the demand data yet as the PD porting would happen now during this window.Quote:
Originally Posted by fedupwithgc
Ooohoooo :)
Spec, Could you please elaborate how CO might move dates based on the possible scenario you describe above?Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
The August visa bulletin has a turn of phrase that has confused me,"India Second: This cut-off date has been advanced in an effort to fully utilize the numbers available under the overall Employment Second preference annual limit."
So is CO only considering fall across in this month? and not fall down?
If so, should September bulletin yield a fall down based movement? It may also be the case that the porting demand increases rapidly and no movement happens.
Thanks as always for your insight.
Hi indiani, please post the more info from the presentation when you have it ready. The first prediction of Jan 1, 2008 did come true. I wonder what other info was given in the conference about possible further movement.Quote:
Originally Posted by indiani
When CO says "overall Employment Second preference annual limit", it includes FD from EB1 (and consequently EB4 and EB5).Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
Spec,
I too have a doubt in interpreting the phrase.
Is it that this advancement alone will fully utilize all the numbers? Does it sound like that?
Department of State Publication 9514
CA/VO: July 8, 2013
why is it that we could this only today ( not a major problem though to wiat extra day ), based on my expectations this should have been released yesterday, anyway the date is where everyone told it is going to be, so will wait for the emails filling out inboxes next month
kd2008,Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
I just read the phraseto mean the original 45k plus any Fall Down from EB1. Numbers can't be available to EB2-I until they are in EB2.Quote:
the numbers available under the overall Employment Second preference annual limit
In the INA, the numbers available to Second Preference is defined aswhere 28.6% this year equates to 45,188 and paragraph (1) refers to EB1.Quote:
Visas shall be made available, in a number not to exceed 28.6 percent of such worldwide level, plus any visas not required for the classes specified in paragraph (1)
It is my belief that is how CO is using the phrase.
By the end of August, EB2-I will have already used almost all the 3.2k from the normal quota. Additionally, there is the potential 8k shown in the demand plus all the pent up porting cases from June 2012 to August 2013 to come into the demand.
That could easily be a potential 15k in total (although since not all cases will get approved it is actually probably less than that).
My point is that we're most likely only looking at a few thousand or so to come in September to use up the numbers available, which limits how far the dates can move.
Kanmani,Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
That is always a possibility and that there will be no further movement in September. Currently, I do think some movement is possible in September, but maybe not that much. I think it depends on EB1 and EB2-WW performance before the last VB of the year is published.
I'm sure CO has made the phrase deliberately open to multiple interpretations.
Viz - I saw Spec's interpretation which is along your lines.
I think Annual limit if left open to interpretation as FD + EB2 category limit then loses the meaning of the phrase "Annual Limit".
By definition limit is has to be hard coded at an absolute number or absolute %.
So I am 100% confident that there will be movement in Sep and now that I think of it ... I think its going to be perhaps 6-9 months instead of 0-6 months which is what I said. The simple reason being that if FA is allowing movement upto Jan 2008 then I am expecting even bigger FD. So lets see how it goes. 31 days from now.
Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Fall Across alone from EB2-WW could not have allowed the COD to move to 01JAN08 in the August VB.
FA in EB2 will either be a very low number, zero or slightly negative (i.e. EB2-WW would use some FD). To move the COD in the August VB to 01JAN08, FD must have been assumed.
I guess we can just disagree (in a very friendly way of course) and see what the September VB brings.
PS:- In the July VB, CO wrote
In this context, CO clearly includes FD in his definition ofQuote:
At this time it appears that the availability of “otherwise unused” Employment Second preference numbers will allow for movement of this cut-off date in August and/or September.
otherwise mentioning September would make no sense.Quote:
“otherwise unused” Employment Second preference numbers
Guys,
Was demand data ever released for this month?
"
So I am 100% confident that there will be movement in Sep and now that I think of it ... I think its going to be perhaps 6-9 months instead of 0-6 months which is what I said. The simple reason being that if FA is allowing movement upto Jan 2008 then I am expecting even bigger FD. So lets see how it goes. 31 days from now"
Q,
I think its impossible with FA alone to make CO move to jan 2008 ( FD surely is used )
will it many more months is september? - I seem to think it might move few months, probably 2-3
Spec - it's a pleasure to even disagree with you!! So don't worry about that.
I agree with you that indeed FA wouldn't have been sufficient to move to Jan 2008 (esp with my concerns about EB3ROW porting. I think that is one last remaining thing I am not sure I have really cracked it that well yet).
However - I am thinking that it is not impossible either. e.g. many times people look at last years backlog, and this years demand and then they add together. Well that's not the right approach. One should always subtract 1/3rd of this year's demand because that is rolling backlog that even a current category will always have because of 485 processing timelines. 4 Months of processing means 1/3 year of rolling backlog. That's why I won't entirely rule out FA satisfying movement through Jan 2008.
p.s. - I think it is also possible that Jan 2008 might be a bit of overshot since neither CO may have that perfect understanding of demand. So in that regard I echo Kanmani's sentiment on whether indeed date movement means all demand will be satisfied.
pps - Indiani - I think this probably also answers your post.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
no..............Quote:
Originally Posted by geevikram
Q,
I also enjoy our "disagreements". Often the best learning comes out of the exchanges. On that note, I will be very disappointed if you don't contribute on the predictions front next year.
Please see my PS in my original post, which I added after you had quoted it.
Spec - saw your PS. So yes indeed it is subject to interpretation now. Well we will know in another 31 days ... won't we. Meanwhile I am planning to head to banff!! Can't wait for it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Then we just have to wait until DD comes out to know what is going to happen next month. Is DD released every month?
Quote:
Originally Posted by indiani
Now that we are 100% sure that the Gc's will start coming, the question is how soon to anticipate?
will almost all the pre-adjudicated cases approved in 2 weeks as later the interfiling and processing of new applications can take place.
My attorney mentioned that its more likely that its spread out through the month,
I will be nervously waiting until I see the actual card in hand
Finally...
Can anyone beat my PD ?:p
No one can for sure! Was it not Jan 1 2008 a Federal Holiday like every other years' :) Good Luck!Quote:
Originally Posted by dec2007
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I am seriously so jealous!!
Have a great time.
Happy for everybody but especially for u dec2007.Quote:
Originally Posted by dec2007