Thanks Spec. So where do you think these 500K are coming from. A president can't do a visa recapture on his own - can he?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Thanks Spec. So where do you think these 500K are coming from. A president can't do a visa recapture on his own - can he?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
If I had to bet, I think that is what he may well do.
The potential problem is that the law already deals with how unused visas should be dealt with (INA 201 (c) & (d)). It's double counting to recapture them in my view because the visas come back from FB under the current law anyway, but there is a precedent, since Congress has recaptured visas in the past. Unfortunately, I think there is a reasonable chance that it could be challenged by the antis.
Personally, I think the non-counting of dependents won't happen, because it is difficult to get around the law (INA 245(b)) that each AOS application approved must reduce the preference visa numbers by one. Each individual, whether the primary applicant or a dependent is currently required to submit an individual AOS application. The Endelman and Mehta article missed that and did not discuss it.
The language about the 500k released to date is very vague and it is not possible to be entirely sure what is being talked about.
Despite my misgivings about the legality, I really am hoping that BO goes large (and takes a calculated risk) in providing relief to the legal community.
I think as long as the Republicans are unable to get a stay on the EO, any AoS GC applications that are filed and approved while the EO is in force will likely be grandfathered in even if the Republicans win in court later. So this could be huge, particularly if you leverage the EO via CP.
The other thing that you guys aren't factoring in is the business lobby. If Obama does pass an EO, there will be tremendous pressure on the Republicans from big business to not actually challenge it even if they raise hell to pander to the base.
I guess Obama is counting on the fact that the DC Court of Appeals (which would most likely be the one dealing with any challenge) has recently been "enhanced" with four Obama nominees. The court currently tilts 7 Dems, 4 Reps. Although you can still get an occasional red leaning 3 judge panel (like in the stupid decision on the recent Halbig v. Burwell case), odds are that Obama will get a favorable set of judges who will be dis-inclined to kill his EA.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Thanks again Spec. I think he will be inclined to do something strongly. This is his last chance to something .... anything. Come may 2015 .... he is going to be a lame duck president once 2016 season starts.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
imdeng, Obama care was challenged in court because it passed the House and Senate and signed as a law. EO is entirely different from that. Congress would challenge the EO with law codes straight away.Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
Today, Obama's statement from Burma on Immigration reforms is burning in news . He says before holidays this year!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
I hope he staggers the implementation - those already in queue first!
I have a crazy question and I know the answer is No...so if I am legal and my children are US citizens and I have been living here for more than 10 years can I then ask for reprieve under the provisions for the undocumented that has been floating around? I meet all the criteria and in fact much more :) This will surely wipe away a large part of the EB backlog...ha
I am not 100% positive on what the EO will accomplish. I have a feeling that millions of undocumented people will get temporary status. I am not convinced that the president can manufacture green cards with a simple EO.Quote:
Originally Posted by anuprab
If you are a legal, you already have a temporary status.
If green cards are being given away, then in a way, this reprieve will make sense for legals too. And in fact the 500K people may get in exactly that way. It remains to be seen.
Exciting times!
http://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartan...mmigrants-too/
finally someone talking about legals. I hope there is something to reduce the backlogs. without that any EO for legals is useless.
Undocumented have been advocating quite loudly for many years and have managed to bring big bucks to the table.
See this: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/15/us...y-changes.html
For legals it has been companies who have advocated and have invested millions. So interests of legal immigrants are really not a priority for Obama.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/w...tion-overhaul/
The above link gives numbers for folks who might get relief. It does not talk about legals.
omg I cant believe these stupid media guys...
http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2014/...al-immigrants/
IMO .. these leaks are just a strategy to test the waters as to what kind of reaction they will get if they actually do the EO.
I do not know whether President will do EO or not (I wish he does and legals are included in it), however if he does not do it by the end of the year as promised, it is not going to happen in this President's tenure.
I personally believe the EO will not happen. I this is proven wrong, I will be very happy :)
Regarding Amnesty or whatever it is called: The moment it is done, it will just encourage people to break the law and illegally enter US. In the 80's it was 3Million by Reagen. now, it is 11 million. Next time it will be 30 Million. Do not forget that these people will be eligible to sponsor their family in their home country.
I am not against Immigration (I am an immigrant too). But rewarding those who broke the law is a slap on those that followed the law. Some of the countries have very good immigration system (Australia/Canada). Hope the legal immigration is overhauled by including channels for low skilled workers also so that this menace can be checked.
http://af.reuters.com/article/commod...141114?sp=true
There are mixed reports about EO for legals.. just have to wait and watch. I personally don't have much hope that Obama will(can?) do anything to reduce employment based GC backlog. Obama has been stressing that if congress didn't act he will do anything he can within the law. So other than H4 EAD I don't expect anything. Ironically H4 EAD doesn't have to be via EO.Quote:
For example, lobbyists think the administration could finalize a regulation announced in May that would give work permits to spouses of some skilled immigrants with temporary visas.
The most ambitious proposal for tech would speed up long wait lists for green cards for employees on temporary H1B visas by changing the way their spouses and children are counted under an annual cap of 140,000.
But several lobbyists told Reuters they were not optimistic that the proposal would be accepted due to fears by some lawyers it could be challenged in court.
[QUOTE=imdeng;54509]If you only add up the negative numbers, then you get a number pretty close to 500K (486K in fact). Wonder if that is the rationale for the number floating around.
S.No FY EB TOTAL QUOTA Delta FB TOTAL QUOTA Delta EB + FB EB/FB Quota Delta
1 1992 116,198 140,000 (23,802) 213,123 226,000 (12,877) 329,321 366,000 (36,679)
2 1993 147,012 140,000 7,012 226,776 226,000 776 373,788 366,000 7,788
3 1994 123,291 140,000 (16,709) 211,961 226,000 (14,039) 335,252 366,000 (30,748)
4 1995 85,336 140,000 (54,664) 238,122 226,000 12,122 323,458 366,000 (42,542)
5 1996 117,499 140,000 (22,501) 294,174 226,000 68,174 411,673 366,000 45,673
6 1997 90,607 140,000 (49,393) 213,331 226,000 (12,669) 303,938 366,000 (62,062)
7 1998 77,517 140,000 (62,483) 191,480 226,000 (34,520) 268,997 366,000 (97,003)
8 1999 56,817 140,000 (83,183) 216,883 226,000 (9,117) 273,700 366,000 (92,300)
9 2000 111,166 140,000 (28,834) 242,539 226,000 16,539 353,705 366,000 (12,295)
10 2001 186,536 140,000 46,536 223,384 226,000 (2,616) 409,920 366,000 43,920
11 2002 171,583 140,000 31,583 194,458 226,000 (31,542) 366,041 366,000 41
12 2003 83,020 140,000 (56,980) 161,576 226,000 (64,424) 244,596 366,000 (121,404)
13 2004 157,107 140,000 17,107 217,565 226,000 (8,435) 374,672 366,000 8,672
14 2005 242,335 140,000 102,335 222,095 226,000 (3,905) 464,430 366,000 98,430
15 2006 133,622 140,000 (6,378) 218,857 226,000 (7,143) 352,479 366,000 (13,521)
16 2007 154,460 140,000 14,460 203,293 226,000 (22,707) 357,753 366,000 (8,247)
17 2008 162,949 140,000 22,949 226,105 226,000 105 389,054 366,000 23,054
18 2009 140,987 140,000 987 215,333 226,000 (10,667) 356,320 366,000 (9,680)
19 2010 150,262 140,000 10,262 226,651 226,000 651 376,913 366,000 10,913
20 2011 139,302 140,000 (698) 221,042 226,000 (4,958) 360,344 366,000 (5,656)
21 2012 144,648 140,000 4,648 207,535 226,000 (18,465) 352,183 366,000 (13,817)
22 2013 161,269 140,000 21,269 215,753 226,000 (10,247) 377,022 366,000 11,022
Totals>> 2,953,523 3,080,000 (126,477) 4,802,036 4,972,000 (169,964) 7,755,559 8,052,000 (296,441)
Agreed there is some FB->EB & vice versa flow for years in which quota is not fulfilled but sum total should balance out (assumptions; EB is 140 k/yr & FB is 226K/yr)> Since FY1992-2013, there will be total of 296K unused GC's.
Someone talking about EB immigrants too
http://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartan...mmigrants-too/
Legal immigration is again at the bottom of the barrel, still glad it's at least on the letter.. But the request couldn't have been more elusive.
From http://www.politico.com/story/2014/1...on-112950.html
Quote:
Another request from the senators was for Obama to make changes to the legal immigration system that would “keep immigrant families together, protect workers, and allow employers to sponsor more talented immigrants for U.S. citizenship.”
some glimmer of hope? Gurus.. opinions please.
http://www.nationaljournal.com/next-...ction-20141117
Quote:
2. To appease the tech community, the president is likely to make some 250,000 additional employment-based green cards available, but once they are exhausted, the long backlogs for green-card applicants (many from India and China) legally here would remain.
Quote:
Finally, the administration is working with the State Department to "recapture" unused employment-based green cards from the past 20 years. That could clear the green-card backlogs of some legal immigrants who are living here on endlessly renewing H-1B visas waiting for a permanent visa slot to open up. Under the law, only 140,000 employment-based green cards are allowed per year, which makes for long waits for many foreign workers.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politi...3ef_story.html
Quote:
You get the idea. Republicans ain’t happy — and they are likely to get a lot less happy over the next week or so. No matter what congressional response McConnell and Boehner craft — and they are undoubtedly looking at their options — the most obvious and predictable outcome of Obama’s expected move on immigration is that any hope of bipartisanship on much of anything in the 114th Congress, set to convene in January, would probably be out of the question.
Obama knows that. And it would seem he doesn’t care. Or rather, he has made the calculation that the chances of genuine bipartisanship on virtually anything was so low in the first place that it didn’t make sense not to do what he believes is the right thing. The post-grand-bargain-collapse version of Obama is far less willing to extend his hand to Republicans — having, in his estimation, had it bitten so many times before. He views the “now the well is poisoned” point being made by Republicans as laughable.
Just hypothetically if thru EO - 220000 additional GC allocated to employment based category, will then all EB categories will become current? I don't have perm approved data for all categories available, but current pending inventory (appro 100000) + approved 140's = will make all EB's current?
http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefi...oing-to-be-big
Quote:
Gutierrez said the plan would have multiple parts.
"It's going to include millions of people," he said. "It's going to have various parts. I mean we have an agricultural industry. You know, a lot of times the B roll shows the people working in the fields doing that hard, back-breaking work. It's going to have a high tech component. It's going to have a component that's going to keep children together with their moms and their dads."
Two good articles:
1. How obama plan affects millions undocumented. (Don't get disheartened that it doesn't show EB. I am certain if there is EO it will address EB.)
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...-millions.html
2. Discussion on how this time is different and why there won't be lawsuits other than those brought by states.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politi...ab6_story.html
Bloomberg reporting as early as Thurs now but no mention of visa recapture. Only 29 month OPT.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-1...-citizens.html
It talks about expanding the OPT program. If EO only has OPT expansion then that would be terribly disappointing. I wrote an email to the reporter and asked if they got any information about reducing backlogs for employment legal immigrants. Lets see if they update the article and/or respond back to my email.Quote:
Originally Posted by abcx13
Quote:
To contact the reporters on this story: Heidi Przybyla in Washington at hprzybyla@bloomberg.net; Mike Dorning in Washington at mdorning@bloomberg.net
Got a response back from Mike Dorning. He said he did not get any other elements from his source, except for OPT expansion and the estimate of total number of people affected.Quote:
Originally Posted by gten20
It's nice that some of the reporters respond back to your questions.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gten20
It's possible that recapture is in there and his sources just failed to mention it. Or at least that's what I hope. All the other articles have been consistent about recapture.
It's possible. Mike didn't say that his source either denied or suggested that there is nothing other than OPT expansion for legals.Quote:
Originally Posted by abcx13
But there have been mixed reports about recapture and not counting dependent against cap as being murky and could be challenged in courts. Obama has consistently said that he will do everything to fix immigration within the limits of law.
Let's see if Obama provides any relief to clear backlogs.
Got the following in an email from the "site that cannot be named". Please take it with a pinch of salt and feel free to delete if the message is inappropriate for this blog. It looks like we will know soon what's in store for us. The crux of the email is as follows:
In addition to recapture of unused green cards and EAD for H-4 visa holders, ** has pushed for many different quality of life fixes to the system. We expect that a combination of the following fixes, in some variation, will be announced very soon by the administration.
Allow applicant to submit and DHS to receive Adjustment of Status application when a visa number is not available.
Providing clarity to current law by clearly defining "Same or Similar Occupation Classification".
Providing the immigration case related paperwork to the beneficiary by USCIS and Department of Labor. Currently, immigrants do not have access to their own immigration paper work making them beholden to the employers, skewing the labor market.
Improving the system so that immigrants are not required to re-file and start employment based visa process all over again every time they change employer. This aspect of the system is being excessively abused by bad employers in marketplace to coerce and threaten immigrant employees from changing jobs, resulting in employee exploitation and preventing labor mobility.
Allow porting of Priority Date between primary applicant's Employment Based green card petition and Spouse's Employment Based green card petition.
Making Visa Bulletin 'Current' allowing applicants to adjust status.
Providing clarity for allowing immigrants to start companies and work for their own companies on Optional Practical Training (OPT), Employment Authorization Document (EAD) pending Adjustment of Status and H1-B visas, without impractical restrictions that are not required by the existing law.
Grant automatic extensions for 240 days of Work Authorization and Advance Parole if extension was filed prior to expiry of Work Authorization or Advance Parole.
Mohan, Thanks for sharing.
Wow this is big. I can't wait till this really happens. Even if one or two these proposals happen, it would be a bonanza for legals.
Iatiam
CNBC confirmed that announcement is going to come on Friday in Vegas.Quote:
Originally Posted by iatiam
WSJ on my phone just sent a push notification saying BO will announce EO on Fri.
This is it. If legals do not get anything out of this reform, then we just have to suck it up. I'll keep hoping though, it's a good thing and no good thing ever dies.
Regarding IVs list, don't assume all of them are to be included in the EO. ** itself doesn't know what is really in the EO. The items they have listed is the ones they requested.
** letter starts with the following words:
Quote:
While the exact details are unknown at this time, there are some specific reforms that we have requested
Legals will get something out of it. I will be shocked if there is nothing in there. However - my guess is - the president can only give legals something like ability to file 485 without dates being current. I think he will earn legal vote if he recaptures prior wasted visas via this EO.Quote:
Originally Posted by psychedelicNerd
I actually think that concurrent filing is what we would get too and that in itself is a major relief for a lot of us. Gotta wait and see.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
If it's just I485 filing, that would sort of be lame. After all the leaks about recapture, I'm really hoping it's true.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...ration-policy/
http://www.politico.com/story/2014/1...2.html?hp=l2_4
Friday is the day!
(Source for these links: OH Immigration law firm)
It would be pretty lame. I am still hoping for recapture as well but the signs are not good at this moment. That chatter is slowly dying away.
Quote:
Originally Posted by abcx13
Maybe I'm being foolishly optimistic but I think that might be because everyone is focusing on illegals.Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
Perm filing for Indians will come down drastically in the next couple years if I 485 can be filed without dates being current. Once an employee gets EAD he/she is a free bird and employers (both Desi and US corps)
hate the thought itself. Perms will be filed very late when H1b is nearing 5th year end.