Discussion On The Politics of Immigration Reform (Comprehensive Or Otherwise)

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/0...n_3568694.html

All the house members are listed here with their yes/no/unknown status as of now.
Please check your representative and his stance. If he is in unknown territory please plan to call his/her office as much as you can in support of CIR.

You can also keep tweeting them :)

You can find your representative and your district based on zip code here http://www.govtrack.us/congress/members/map

Check both your office and home zip codes at a minimum and make sure both these representatives support CIR.

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Originally Posted by idiotic

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/0...n_3568694.html

All the house members are listed here with their yes/no/unknown status as of now.
Please check your representative and his stance. If he is in unknown territory please plan to call his/her office as much as you can in support of CIR.

You can also keep tweeting them :)

You can find your representative and your district based on zip code here http://www.govtrack.us/congress/members/map

Check both your office and home zip codes at a minimum and make sure both these representatives support CIR.

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As usual, media is dead wrong. A simple cursory look at their unknowns tells you nearly all of them are a definite well confirmed no. In fact, having spoken to constituents of this unknowns, I know personally that many of the unknowns are nos. Some of the confirmed nos. actually could be persuaded to abstain or vote yes. The actual fight on the ground is very different than this article for sure.

Obama's immigration strategy in limbo. Tomorrow's meeting is important.

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/0...mbo-93919.html

** has decided to oppose the bill HR 2131 (SKILL)

http://****************.org/forum/fo...-backlogs.html

This analysis looks correct and immigration reform chances look bleak.

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2...ion-reform.php

Another one,
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_a..._proposal.html

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Originally Posted by rupen86

This analysis looks correct and immigration reform chances look bleak.

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2...ion-reform.php

Another one,
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_a..._proposal.html

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I agree that the chances for CIR look pretty bleak.

I enjoyed the comments to the article - quite robust shall we say!! My personal favourite was

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KarmicEnforcer • 8 hours ago

Go fuck yourself you Confederate Republican piece of shit. The idea that I pay your salary as you deliberately harm America is damn near enough to make me wanna go postal.

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Posted by Q -

Spec - to be honest I too enjoyed the comment - esp the confederate and postal piece. I would like to censor it on one hand to keep cleanliness of the forum and on other I also think that we all are adult to handle this language.

So I leave it upto you and other gurus to make a decision. Sorry to invade your original post.


Q,

I did think exactly like you about posting it. Our thought processes are the same - I decided that given the context of the comment and that it was not directed at anyone on the forum, that we are adult enough to handle it.

If someone is offended, I certainly don't mind the post being deleted, but I won't do so.

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/0...0.html?hp=t1_3

Look who is leading the House GOP line !

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Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa), a leader of the House’s hell-no-on-immigration-reform caucus, held a jam-packed meeting Monday night to walk through why his party should proudly defeat the bipartisan bill. King said the Senate’s immigration plan would help “elites who want cheap labor, Democratic power brokers, and those who hire illegal labor.”“It would hurt Republicans, and I don’t think you can make an argument otherwise,” King said. “Two out of every three of the new citizens would be Democrats.” Some might dismiss this as the rantings of a bombastic right-winger — but his take is mainstream theology among House Republicans.

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GCQ - actually I agree with King that it will hurt republican party. But I think one thing that democrats and CIR supporters will do well to emphasize is that - even though it may hurt republican party - it will be good for America.

Unfortunately republican party has gone to the wrong side of history and politics and become a party of narrow identity, narrow ideas and narrow interests. That is so anti-thetical to America and its ideals of Freedom, Equal Opportunity, Liberty and Justice.

I think if republican party abandons its idiotic sponsors and gets closer to what was Lincoln's republican party which was much more closer to libertarian roots - they will play good constructive role in American politics as well as save themselves from a certain death.

End of Speech. Sorry didn't mean it. But kind of came it across like that. Isn't it. But basically the CIR is good because it will remove wage suppression, infuse younger workforce (so sorely required as boomers will retire in droves) and expand American identity. That's my argument for CIR.

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Originally Posted by gcq

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/0...0.html?hp=t1_3

Look who is leading the House GOP line !

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by gcq

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/0...0.html?hp=t1_3

Look who is leading the House GOP line !

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What I fail to understand here is the way house republicans do not care about republican party, why should republican leadership care about what house republicans think. They should just ask Boehner to bring the bill to the floor if they are serious about presidential election unless they have given up on that and are happy with the "house party".

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

GCQ - actually I agree with King that it will hurt republican party. But I think one thing that democrats and CIR supporters will do well to emphasize is that - even though it may hurt republican party - it will be good for America.

Unfortunately republican party has gone to the wrong side of history and politics and become a party of narrow identity, narrow ideas and narrow interests. That is so anti-thetical to America and its ideals of Freedom, Equal Opportunity, Liberty and Justice.

I think if republican party abandons its idiotic sponsors and gets closer to what was Lincoln's republican party which was much more closer to libertarian roots - they will play good constructive role in American politics as well as save themselves from a certain death.

End of Speech. Sorry didn't mean it. But kind of came it across like that. Isn't it. But basically the CIR is good because it will remove wage suppression, infuse younger workforce (so sorely required as boomers will retire in droves) and expand American identity. That's my argument for CIR.

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Good to think that way but any politician in the world won't think that way. Everyone looks for their self interest first and politicians in particular. There is no way they would do something if it is bad for them or the party even if it benefits the nation. The idea that status quo is better politically than doing the reform seems wrong to me. If that was the reason, they should not have started this. Republican are in demographic death spiral and status quo is not going to save them. With the status quo, they may be able to keep house majority for few more years but after some years even that would be gone. It is lack of leadership from republican party. It is understandable that house republicans will be opposed to the bill because that does not benefit them. But it is not understandable why the leadership would surrender to that.

Salient features of the bill from CBO report

1. Reduce illegal immigration about 33 to 50% after several years
2. Wage reduction for 11 years and then start increasing
3. Increase of unemployment till 2020
4. Deficit reduction 135 billion in first 10 years and then 700 billion in next 10 years

The CBO report is mixed at best and no compelling reason to pass the bill. Deficit reduction could be only big benefit but still wait for 20 years may be too long and same amount could be easily done by many other measures. First 3 points need to be improved to get more support. Unfortunately when they try to improve 1 then many democrats will stop supporting. If they try to improve 2 and 3 more loss of support from GOP.

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Originally Posted by rupen86

Good to think that way but any politician in the world won't think that way. Everyone looks for their self interest first and politicians in particular. There is no way they would do something if it is bad for them or the party even if it benefits the nation. The idea that status quo is better politically than doing the reform seems wrong to me. If that was the reason, they should not have started this. Republican are in demographic death spiral and status quo is not going to save them. With the status quo, they may be able to keep house majority for few more years but after some years even that would be gone. It is lack of leadership from republican party. It is understandable that house republicans will be opposed to the bill because that does not benefit them. But it is not understandable why the leadership would surrender to that.

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Originally Posted by rupen86

What I fail to understand here is the way house republicans do not care about republican party, why should republican leadership care about what house republicans think. They should just ask Boehner to bring the bill to the floor if they are serious about presidential election unless they have given up on that and are happy with the "house party".

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Somehow Steve King ( who was ignored by house GOP starting with HR 3012) has been successful in stirring up tea party *****ts. He should be doing lot of behind the scenes campaigning with NUSA and other groups. At some point GOP has to come out of this hole created by anti-immigrants and do the right thing in bringing senate bill to floor. I think it will happen at some point. Nancy pelosi advising republicans about how they are going to loose elections if the don't vote for CIR is not the inspirational speech that GOP needs at this point. Also Schumer threatening GOP that their town hall meetings will be crowded with pro-CIR people is not a smart idea either.

There is one more reason why I suspect that King has an upper hand is that there is no increase in GC numbers in the house bill. For the time being King is driving the show. Let us hope that his reins will be over soon !

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Originally Posted by gcq

Somehow Steve King ( who was ignored by house GOP starting with HR 3012) has been successful in stirring up tea party *****ts. He should be doing lot of behind the scenes campaigning with NUSA and other groups. At some point GOP has to come out of this hole created by anti-immigrants and do the right thing in bringing senate bill to floor. I think it will happen at some point. Nancy pelosi advising republicans about how they are going to loose elections if the don't vote for CIR is not the inspirational speech that GOP needs at this point. Also Schumer threatening GOP that their town hall meetings will be crowded with pro-CIR people is not a smart idea either.

There is one more reason why I suspect that King has an upper hand is that there is no increase in GC numbers in the house bill. For the time being King is driving the show. Let us hope that his reins will be over soon !

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That's the big reason to worry..No GC increase and increase in H1B by 3 times..it is going to make backlog situation worse..please spend some time in opposing this bill to your local lawmakers.

I think there is not enough ground to oppose this bill. This bill has its own POV which is - we need workers but not immigrants. As a country its America's privilege to admit someone or not.

All that future immigrants can and should say is really how granting them immigrant status helps US which is what CIR does. I wouldn't get into this mud fight. Instead I would advise to push for CIR full throttle and call up lawmakers that are "undecided".

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Originally Posted by rupen86

That's the big reason to worry..No GC increase and increase in H1B by 3 times..it is going to make backlog situation worse..please spend some time in opposing this bill to your local lawmakers.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

I think there is not enough ground to oppose this bill. This bill has its own POV which is - we need workers but not immigrants. As a country its America's privilege to admit someone or not.

All that future immigrants can and should say is really how granting them immigrant status helps US which is what CIR does. I wouldn't get into this mud fight. Instead I would advise to push for CIR full throttle and call up lawmakers that are "undecided".

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I do not understand your point here. House is not taking up CIR. So, what CIR are you talking about? They are going to take up small bills like HR 2131. That's why we have to talk about that bill. For years, we are worried about green card backlog which is our main issue. This bill is not reducing that, it is increasing that. How can we not talk about that and talk about CIR which they are not even picking up.

Rupen - what I am saying is - we should work so that House takes up the CIR rather than oppose any of their bills. Those bills are going to die their own death. Why waste energy on opposing something. Rather spend energy on being FOR for something.

Besides it is not a good strategy to oppose something that helps immigration. As bad as 2131 is .. eventually that too incresaes immigration - only on the legal front.

You have to understand that there are multiple ways to achieve your goals. Sometimes you can join forces to achieve the goals. If King wants to be an immigration hero by tripling H1B .. let him be. Is your goal to solve the immigration problem for AGES or for today.

My practical thinking is - whatever we solve today is for today only. It is so ridiculous to try to solve something for next 10-20 years. That is possible in science and engineering. Politics doesn't work that way.

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Originally Posted by rupen86

I do not understand your point here. House is not taking up CIR. So, what CIR are you talking about? They are going to take up small bills like HR 2131. That's why we have to talk about that bill. For years, we are worried about green card backlog which is our main issue. This bill is not reducing that, it is increasing that. How can we not talk about that and talk about CIR which they are not even picking up.

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There is a map and a column that shows who will vote yes/no and who is still undecided. I am not sure how accurate it is but still worth taking a look at.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/0...?utm_hp_ref=tw

Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Rupen - what I am saying is - we should work so that House takes up the CIR rather than oppose any of their bills. Those bills are going to die their own death. Why waste energy on opposing something. Rather spend energy on being FOR for something.

Besides it is not a good strategy to oppose something that helps immigration. As bad as 2131 is .. eventually that too incresaes immigration - only on the legal front.

You have to understand that there are multiple ways to achieve your goals. Sometimes you can join forces to achieve the goals. If King wants to be an immigration hero by tripling H1B .. let him be. Is your goal to solve the immigration problem for AGES or for today.

My practical thinking is - whatever we solve today is for today only. It is so ridiculous to try to solve something for next 10-20 years. That is possible in science and engineering. Politics doesn't work that way.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Rupen - what I am saying is - we should work so that House takes up the CIR rather than oppose any of their bills. Those bills are going to die their own death. Why waste energy on opposing something. Rather spend energy on being FOR for something.

Besides it is not a good strategy to oppose something that helps immigration. As bad as 2131 is .. eventually that too incresaes immigration - only on the legal front.

You have to understand that there are multiple ways to achieve your goals. Sometimes you can join forces to achieve the goals. If King wants to be an immigration hero by tripling H1B .. let him be. Is your goal to solve the immigration problem for AGES or for today.

My practical thinking is - whatever we solve today is for today only. It is so ridiculous to try to solve something for next 10-20 years. That is possible in science and engineering. Politics doesn't work that way.

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Here is my point. For the CIR in general, there are bigger players in the play. What we do not have is players playing for us. There are powerful players for "pathway to citizenship". There are powerful players for "Border Security". There are powerful players for "H1B". But there are not powerful players for "Green Cards for high skill people". That's why we have to talk about issues affecting us. HR 2131 might pass house with majority of republican votes and if conference ever happens our provisions in the senate will be up for negotiations to get something else.

I guess what I don't understand is how can talking against 2131 advances your cause. That's what I am struggling with.

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Originally Posted by rupen86

Here is my point. For the CIR in general, there are bigger players in the play. What we do not have is players playing for us. There are powerful players for "pathway to citizenship". There are powerful players for "Border Security". There are powerful players for "H1B". But there are not powerful players for "Green Cards for high skill people". That's why we have to talk about issues affecting us. HR 2131 might pass house with majority of republican votes and if conference ever happens our provisions in the senate will be up for negotiations to get something else.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

I guess what I don't understand is how can talking against 2131 advances your cause. That's what I am struggling with.

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Q,

The phrase

First Do No Harm

comes to mind.

HR2131 does very little to help the aspirations of would be EB Immigrants.

In fact it increases the pipeline flowing into the EB Immigrant system more than the that flowing out via approvals. The eventual result can only be ever increasing backlogs for everybody, since the current balance already results in backlogs.

H1B numbers increase by 130% while EB Immigrant numbers only increase by about 70%. Part of that is an entirely new Entrepreneur Category, so really H1B numbers increase 2X Immigrant numbers.

The Bill does nothing to address the systemic problems that exist in the EB system. It just give Employers access to large numbers of (potentially cheap) labor.

It is a zero sum solution that just transfers numbers from Diversity and F4 Categories to EB and F2A.

I appreciate some people may welcome the elimination of the Per Country Caps in the Bill, but the other provisions actually it make the situation worse for everybody in the medium term.

Given the choice, I would prefer the status-quo if the only alternative was HR2131. I don't think I would be alone. The Bill can only benefit a fairly narrow subset of people, most of whom already have an I-485 pending. The larger picture is entirely negative.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by rupen86

Here is my point. For the CIR in general, there are bigger players in the play. What we do not have is players playing for us. There are powerful players for "pathway to citizenship". There are powerful players for "Border Security". There are powerful players for "H1B". But there are not powerful players for "Green Cards for high skill people". That's why we have to talk about issues affecting us. HR 2131 might pass house with majority of republican votes and if conference ever happens our provisions in the senate will be up for negotiations to get something else.

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If you want to have a seat at the negotiating table for the individual details in a bill you have to be a lobying organization. Otherwise, for general public who cannot spend money or time and only have one vote to spare for the politicians, their voice is only as good as either support or oppose a bill. It is upto us to get behind and support S.744 / house individual piecemeal bills (which has no future except being part of an house omnibus package as a companion to S.744) as everyone knows.

Reality is people affected by the issue "More Green cards for legal immigrants" do not even have one vote to spare in most cases. The only case where this may be a voting issue is for Family based immigration and not employment based immigration.

People who want to kill CIR or give alternate solutions(more worker visas but zero sum green cards) really want people who want to contribute to all the national funds by paying taxes and not to benefit back from it after a period of time. If you atleast make these timelines as definite timelines, it is upto immigrants to take a decision as to whats best for them.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Q,

The phrase

First Do No Harm

comes to mind.

HR2131 does very little to help the aspirations of would be EB Immigrants.

In fact it increases the pipeline flowing into the EB Immigrant system more than the that flowing out via approvals. The eventual result can only be ever increasing backlogs for everybody, since the current balance already results in backlogs.

H1B numbers increase by 130% while EB Immigrant numbers only increase by about 70%. Part of that is an entirely new Entrepreneur Category, so really H1B numbers increase 2X Immigrant numbers.

The Bill does nothing to address the systemic problems that exist in the EB system. It just give Employers access to large numbers of (potentially cheap) labor.

It is a zero sum solution that just transfers numbers from Diversity and F4 Categories to EB and F2A.

I appreciate some people may welcome the elimination of the Per Country Caps in the Bill, but the other provisions actually it make the situation worse for everybody in the medium term.

Given the choice, I would prefer the status-quo if the only alternative was HR2131. I don't think I would be alone. The Bill can only benefit a fairly narrow subset of people, most of whom already have an I-485 pending. The larger picture is entirely negative.

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I completely agree with this.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

I guess what I don't understand is how can talking against 2131 advances your cause. That's what I am struggling with.

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If 2131 passes and if the conference happens, there will be negotiations since house has passed its version for high skill part and senate has its version. If 2131 is not passed, there is no negotiation since senate is the only bill that would have passed something on high skill and negotiations happen on other areas and not on this.

Totally agree. In my opinion there is nothing wrong in increasing work visas but the number of non immigrant visas (with dual intent including path to green card) should be somewhat in the same range as the number of green cards available. If there is a need for large number of temporary workers then they should be granted temporary work visas with a clause of going back for a certain time or transferring to H1B under the H1B quota before starting the green card process.
Otherwise in the existing world of arbitrary quotas and categories everybody's (both existing and new applicants) lives will be messier. From next year if under the new and bigger H1B quota, Infosys and TCS decide to get people with 1+ year of experience to US in big numbers and if they file in EB1 after another 6 months we will have a backlogged EB1 before 2014 ends (This can actually very well happen even without 2131). That will effectively terminate the GC journey for any existing and new EB2s.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Q,

The phrase

First Do No Harm

comes to mind.

HR2131 does very little to help the aspirations of would be EB Immigrants.

In fact it increases the pipeline flowing into the EB Immigrant system more than the that flowing out via approvals. The eventual result can only be ever increasing backlogs for everybody, since the current balance already results in backlogs.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Q,
The phrase
First Do No Harm
comes to mind.
... The larger picture is entirely negative.

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Spec - I get that. I guess I am thinking 2131 is still a step forward and not an end by itself. The next logical step is to fight to increase in quota. Opposing 2131 is a classic case of Mumbai local trains where those inside oppose the outsiders and the same outsiders when become insiders oppose other outsiders.

2131 sure increases flow and wait times for everybody. But then the solution is not to control the flow. But rather increase visa supply.

By same token - if tomorrow somebody comes up with a bill to completely abolish H1B - which will reduce everybody's wait time reduce in the pipeline - will you think that is good bill ??

I think that's what my concern is. People opposing immigration for their own narrow interests.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by rupen86

If 2131 passes and if the conference happens, there will be negotiations since house has passed its version for high skill part and senate has its version. If 2131 is not passed, there is no negotiation since senate is the only bill that would have passed something on high skill and negotiations happen on other areas and not on this.

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I think this actually supports my contention that let 2131 pass congress or at least don't oppose. And if it passes congress then things will go to conference and at least there will be negotiations. Right? What am I missing?