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these are final action dates (and not just dates to build inventory), so one has to assume these dates should cover actual GC numbers..
do the experts think quarterly spillover or something to that effect is applied or so far movements are based on the 2400 only?
Quote:
Originally Posted by EB2NOV10
It's probably just the 2400 - there are only around 2200 total pending inventory (based on oct 2015 data) + porters prior to this date. The folks in 2007 and beyond are probably the porters who are becoming visible, movement to 08/2008 is nothing to celebrate.Quote:
Originally Posted by vishnu
Any additional forward movement in subsequent months though, will probably indicate some QSO. The gurus on this forum may have a different viewpoint.
These EB2I dates have been current before - more than once - so its just porters and any left demand. Doubt that any spillover is being applied. There is some decent inventory in Oct-2008 onwards - so if dates go there then we have something.
There has been no indications of any QSO.
The ridiculous charade in EB3I continues. It will continue until the summer I imagine.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mechanical13
In some of the forum they are saying that for another 4 more visa bulletin it will move either 4 or 6 months per bulletin until mid 2016 (i.e. AUG2009 or DEC2009). Is there any chance in the last quarter to move the dates into 2010 to build inventory?
12/17/2015: DOS Visa Movement Predictions Next Year
•According to the AILA, the following is predicted by the Visa Office: ◦India EB-2: The best scenario of previous prediction is about 8 months per month, but better scenario is now predicted movement ahead from 4 months to 6 months per month. There is a caveat to this prediction. The volume of EB-3 upgradeing to EB-2 appears to rise, which will affect movement of EB-2 for India beginning from around early mid-2016.
◦EB-3 worldwide: It has been moving very rapidly lately but due to the growing demand, the cut-off date may move slow down from here on.
◦EB-5: Unlikely previous alert, it now states that DOS is scheduling visa appointments persuant to the Continuing Resolution and predicted enactment of Omnibums Appropriation Legislation for 2016.
EB2NOV10,
To directly answer your question: I don't think there is any chance of dates moving (whether FAD or AFD) into 2010 this FY.
Generally, many people took CO's comments to refer to movement through the March 2016 VB. It moved 8 months in January and will move 6 months in February.
The March 2016 VB is likely to move the dates beyond 01OCT08. That period has not been current since October 2014 and contains higher numbers of porting applications that have not been current since they became eligible to port. USCIS cannot complete the interfiling process until the case is current in the VB (according to the Adjudicators Field Manual). These cases will not show in the current USCIS Inventory.
If the dates go beyond 01MAY09 at any point, those dates have not been current since April 2012 and there will be at least 4 years worth of porting cases to be added to the Inventory for those dates.
That's at least partly why CO mentioned that the volume of EB-3 upgrading to EB-2 may affect movement of the Final Action Date for India.
Edit: The AFD was at 01JUL09 for Oct/Nov 2015. Possibly the next Inventory will include some of the cases above.
That's a great insight. EB2-India folks will do well to listen.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Yes as per my calcs it seems that next VB should have approx 4 mths movtQuote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Thank you SpecQuote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
That is indeed a very good observation Spec. I was just looking at the pending inventory and thought it does not take much SO to take FAD to mid 2009. So what do EB3 folks post Oct 2008 need to do to become eligible for EB2 dates assuming they have already filed EB2 and have a 140 pending? Do they just file some paper work that is just procedural and is more or less instantaneous? or would it take a couple of months for USCIS to recognize that they now have a new EB2 case?Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
vyruss,Quote:
Originally Posted by vyruss
I think most cases will already have an EB2 I-140 approved, given the timescales. Many people will in any case have used PP to benefit from from the approved I-140 for H1B extension purposes.
I don't have any insight into USCIS procedures for handling these cases Other than what is in the AFM), the time required to do so, or whether those procedures have changed since the introduction of Application Filing Dates. I'm sure USCIS are very aware of these cases.
I have a sneaking suspicion that it is no coincidence that USCIS only allowed the 01JUL09 AFD for 2 months. During that time, they could not only accept new applications, but also complete the interfiling for previous cases with an earlier PD that were awaiting becoming current. If so, they just be like any other EB2 case when the FAD becomes current.
If so, there's probably already more than enough cases before the 01JUL09 date compared to available visas for the FY.
The next Inventory will be interesting, but previously it took more than one Inventory for the totality of the numbers to become apparent.
Maybe I've misreading this due to excessive optimism, but does this mean you think final action dates could reach July 2009 in this year? My EB2-I priority date is 6/29/09 - we applied for I-485 in 2012 and got the EAD/AP, just waiting on the GC approval now. Thanks.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Quote:
Originally Posted by prodigy_max4
I think what Spec merely stated was that USCIS may have enough cases to completely use up this years quota with the current inventory that has piled up prior to July 2009. USCIS may re-calibrate it when they get a complete idea after they let all the porting cases to show up as EB2 (at least internally). Hence Spec is looking for an inventory report. In the next inventory report many porting cases would show up in EB2. Once again USCIS has some estimate of how many porting cases are waiting in line, they just want to confirm it before moving the next bulletins. It may be July 2009, or before that, but definitely after Aug 2008 :p
Hi Gurus,
Thanks for your informative posts that help legal immigrants get clarity on various subjects. I have a question regarding promotions while working for the same employer that files for PERM/I-140. I was working as Sr. Software Engineer and now i got promoted as Technology Manager. Most of the responsibilities remains same but there are few new responsibilities such as delivery, few folks are reporting to me etc. I would say 80% responsibilities are still same as mentioned in my PERM.
What is the USCIS position on title change and also slight variation in job description? Do I have to get my employer refile PERM? If my job responsibilities stays same as before but the title is changed, do I still need to refile PERM? Any memos, field manuals, USCIS guidelines on this subject that I can refer to?
Waiting eagerly for your thoughts.
Thank you.
Hi Gurus,
Based on the Indian PERM filings over the years:
2008 - 23.7k
2009 - 16.7k
2010 - 22.3k
2011 - 30.0k
2012 - 36.7k
2013 - 36.0k
2014 - 40.0k
2015 - 43.7k
what are the chances of EB2-I for Nov 2010 to become current?
It is a moving time scale. On an average the wait time has been 5 to 6 years in the past. Now the norm is 6-7 years, it may change to 8 years without any major legislation. I would rather look at the averages and not pin hopes on predictions based on number crunching which are very vague to begin with anyway. A lot of factors come into play. The only known thing is the total number of GCs that can be issued in a given year. There are reports that USCIS wastes some visas every year. So even the total number of actual GCs issued becomes a variable. With so many factors, including dependent ratio, porting, WW demand etc., going with the average makes more sense. Also note that the average itself is a number that has been increasing. So you are easily looking at October 2017 to September 2018 if you go by that reasoning.Quote:
Originally Posted by EB2NOV10
Thank you vyruss.Quote:
Originally Posted by vyruss
vyruss,Quote:
Originally Posted by vyruss
No longer. Let's look at the facts for the last few years:
FY ------- Allocation - Visas Issued - Over/(Under)
FY2012 ------ 144,951 ------ 144,647 -------- (304)
FY2013 ------ 158,466 ------ 161,269 ------- 2,803
FY2014 ------ 150,241 ------ 151,359 ------- 1,118
We are already at 7+ years considering that 2009 people will not be done in 2016. Without legislation we are looking at a situation significantly worse than EB3I. With EB2I density shooting up in 2010 onwards, for folks joining the queue right now 10, 12, 15, 20 years to get GC are all on the table.
We might even reach EB2I downgrades to EB3I sooner than straight EB2I. i.e. EB3I CoD might cross EB2I - like it is for EB-C.
Quote:
Originally Posted by vyruss
I do have a question for every one,
1. When do you expect to see EB3ROW inventory to clear out and for EB3ROW to EB3I SO to happen? If it is summer, is it too late for EB3 folks to complete medicals given the old medicals are expired?
2. If EB3I moves forward and the inventory is cleared out partially or completely, what impact would it have on EB2I. If the porting slowes down (as it should), would it result in more than expected SO to EB2I.
As Deng said, 2009ners are already at PD+7 years so any SO coming that way would be useful, to say the least.
Iatiam
March VB will progress to 15NOV08.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
I think 01OCT08 was PD cut off in Aug-2015 Bulletin for EB2-I. So majority of the porting should have been reflecting in the USCIS Oct, 2015 inventory and interfiling should have been processed.
In October-2014 VB, EB2-I PD cut off is 01MAY09. So its only 27 months ( 2 years and 1 quarter) worth of porting cases to be added not four years porting cases.
In general interfiling happens, when EB3-I folks already filed I-485 and port the existing cases to be processed under EB2. So I don't think anyone beyond PD JULY 2007 PD could have ever filed I-485 with EB3. They either ported to EB2 and filed ( this case they already accounted in the inventory) or just waiting to file since they upgraded to EB2 after PD retrogression.
CO could be indicating both side of porting ( folks who had filed already I-485 or filing new I-485).
All - I have moved all RFE discussion in a separate thread HERE
Appreciate your cooperation. Lets keep this thread for calculations and predictions.
I hope the filing date will start move by 2nd or 3rd quarter of 2016. It will move till Jan 2010 I guess by this year end.
Hi,
I have the same question but PD is DEC-2013. I would appreciate to know whats is the guesstimate year for DEC-2013 to be current.
Appreciate a reply.
Oh man... so close... yet so far. My PD is Nov 20th 2008. I am really hoping to get GC before May as I have travel plans. :(
EB3I folks seem to be getting RFE's upto 31 Dec 04. Anyone wanna predict the March VB EB3I PD Movement?