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I am just a silent reader on his forum. See the link for more details http://www.immigration-information.c...n-may-bulletinQuote:
Originally Posted by MATT2012
Having followed his comments on this topic for last 8 months very closely, I can assure you that his responses have been extreme - talked about movement into 2010 for EB2 I till Jan 2013 and now this talk about discovery of additional 20000 visas by USCIS which were never reported to DoS
if the new applications are indeed discovered, then EB2I is doomed for the near future. I would like to see the data getting reflected in inventory and demand to fully believe.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Niksammy
We just need to wait till end of next week since June 2013 VB will have predictions for last quarter. We will also have DD and inventory available by end of this month.Quote:
Originally Posted by MATT2012
I am confident that this demand has been already been baked into DD and it will be a non issue.
I do feel bad for creating a scare by re-posting Ron's post :(
Guys I think we should ignore this. Ron has said things in the past that have been completely wrong. If before may dd there were 20000 unreported numbers why are they not added to may dd. I am confident dates Will move to at least 2007.Quote:
Originally Posted by Niksammy
Ron is vague and rather somewhat misleading and here is why,
1. 20K must be the difference between 42-22 which got added when dates moved quickly and 42K in DD is already known, if he meant additional 20K in addition to 42K then during which period are these 20K?
2.when he meant short term, does it mean this entire fiscal yr or june /july?
3.no movement- means not even a month and we all know is close to impossible as even with no spillover from any category with the current DD it might move atleast a month (I am just trying to make an arguement why Ron's statement is misleading ) but in fact I believe it might move as many projected and in fact CO projected to early to mid 2008.
I have been following PD's for 6 yrs and this year every single bulletin and all the data and analysis put forth by various members and these are my conclusions and anyone can use my analysis of this news with some degree of skeptisism or critique but I like to see where and to what degree I am wrong.
what fascinates me however is on a thread on trackitt, looks like 2 more lawyers are saying no movement this fiscal, either they are wrong or something very very unusual happened which all of us might be shocked when we know about it. I just hope the lawyers are plain worng and misinformed
Strange that Q, Spec, Viz.. are silent on this. Getting scared.. :(
Indiani,
I concur with most of the observations you made. There is a thread on trackitt.com stating that this information of un-reported 20000 cases was available to lawyers way back on 7 March 2013.
Isnt it surprising that DD for May 2013 was updated one day after it was published to fix EB3 ROW numbers but these un-reported cases for EB2 I have not been updated till now?
I will be shocked if this information about 20000 EB2 cases is correct. I will like to think otherwise till we see numbers to back these claims in DD next week.
Regarding immigration lawyers, the less I comment, the better it would be
Will you please provide the link to the trackitt thread you are mentioning?Quote:
Originally Posted by Niksammy
There are two threads, one started in March and another some two hours ago.
http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...ulletin/page/1
http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...page/last_page
20K ron was mentioning is already added, after spending so much time during this process, I can tell you that as far as movements are concerned there aren't any lawyers who sit and crunch and analyse numbers, they just report any info from AILA meeting and rest is speculation.Quote:
Originally Posted by Niksammy
I would urge anyone who quoates their attorneys or any other lawyer should give specifics and people can decide how much attention they need to pay to the news or predictions.
May DD didn't have a spike and thousands and thousands of cases added like Ron mentions.
"The demand data chart for May showed a significant spike in EB2 India cases at the USCIS."
"With this new data - the thousands and thousands of cases the USCIS "just suddenly found" - I doubt that there will be much movement the balance of this fiscal year."
http://www.immigration-information.c...n-may-bulletin
Hopefully this is just Ron's prediction and his predictions have been extreme. usually optimistic.
I saw this in the old Murthy Nov 2012 predictions for FY 2013.
"Employment-Based, Second Preference (EB2): India
The DOS has received more than 20,000 EB2 India cases from USCIS that are awaiting issuance of visa numbers. Under the current system, once the USCIS reviews a case and finds it appropriate for approval, the USCIS makes an automated request to the DOS for a visa number. If no number is available, the request is held by the DOS, awaiting action once a visa number for the particular case and priority date becomes available. These cases are referred to as preadjudicated."
http://www.murthy.com/2012/11/02/pri...ions-for-fy13/
I wonder if this 20,000 number is the same one being referred here
Is this 20,000 number the same as one mentioned in murthy website in Nov 2012?
"The DOS has received more than 20,000 EB2 India cases from USCIS that are awaiting issuance of visa numbers. Under the current system, once the USCIS reviews a case and finds it appropriate for approval, the USCIS makes an automated request to the DOS for a visa number. If no number is available, the request is held by the DOS, awaiting action once a visa number for the particular case and priority date becomes available. These cases are referred to as preadjudicated."
http://www.murthy.com/2012/11/02/pri...ions-for-fy13/
I hope next time when someone wants to spread any "NEWS" from Ron , its better to ask him to clarify and explain in detail before it spreads like wildfire to other forums.
I will await the june bulletin predictions for last quarter, if any released. if CO mentions No movement to movement of just couple of years , then that might be a reason to predict something very bleak otherwise still i would consider the projections by spec to bee the closest to reality.
Q and Spec use facts and some well documented assumptions based on historic trends. Hearsay is never part of the equation. Lets just wait a few more days to see if any of this shows up in the demand data.
From my perspective, "finding" an additional 20k apps seems like a stretch as it defeats historical trends. I'm not saying its impossible but it doesn't pass my "sniff test".
I am only going to make this single comment.Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
It does not pass my "sniff test" either for a number of reasons.
a) It is a completely unsubstantiated rumour. Ron Gotcher, who has a less than stellar track record of understanding in this area (but who has been a great source of information from AILA), has "seen" a huge increase in demand in the May DD that simply does not exist as far as I can see. He has provided no back up for this assertion. gc_soon has already mentioned this and it was a statement I didn't understand when Ron made it originally.
b) The other Trackitt user has previously said his attorneys are also saying this and that dates would retrogress earlier in the year. That did not happen.
c) An extra 20k would bring the number of EB2-I cases, as a result of last year's movement to to May 2010, to over 60k. That is an extremely high level based on the underlying PERM numbers and would require a very high Overall Ratio to achieve.
There are scenarios with high EB1, EB2-WW and high porting usage that could still lead to a very bad year and little movement. At the moment, that does not seem very likely, but suddenly finding 20k extra cases is in a different league of "unlikeliness" IMHO.
Finally, let's not shoot the messenger. We are all adult enough to make our own mind up about any information that might be posted. If people are dissuaded from posting what they find, we run the risk of missing some real nuggets of information.
The Demand Data should be out next week and (in particular) the next USCIS Inventory should be published before the end of the month. Let's see what they have to say.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Spec,
About the scenarios where EB2WW will basically eat up EB1 spillover giving nothing to India. I was looking at FY 2008. That year after the 2007 fiasco EB 2 WW basically consumed 48000 visas. I was looking which countries contributed to this and found basically S. Korea and ofcourse P and M. Do you know why that happened that year and do you see 48000 visas getting approved for EB2 again like that year? 2008- EB2 I got 14000 but that was cause of EB5 and EB1 which this year have high demand. I hope you can provide some hope
Quick question, Say a person applied I-485 under EB3 category and EAD kicked off for this 485. Later that person applied for PERM after moving to second company, now what would be the CLASS_OF_ADMISSION in PERM report for this person's position.
I see Parloee as CLASS_OF_ADMISSION in PERM report and more number of Indians has applied under this category. Trying to understand the analogy between Parloee and EB2 Upgrades.
PERM number do not support 20K extra numbers "suddenly found" between July 2007 to April 2010. (34 months)
19,726 GC given in FY2012 + 40000 pending inventory in demand data(34 months). So 60 K is already counted and most of approvals are 2007 and 2008.
If we assume PERM data ratio 4:1 for EB2I:EB3I per year. (very high assumption for 2007, 08, 09 and 2010)
60 K is total number in ball park range and with above ratio 48 K numbers can be EB2I certified PERM
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...d-Calculations
Another 12K may be porting in past 2 years counted/preadjudicated.
So Math do not support these 20K number "suddenly found". (up to 5K may be possible )
Murthy's mention of 20K is different from Ron Gotcher and does not say that it was not counted.
My 2 cents.
Guys
Sorry for being out of pocket for quite some time. I read this over the weekend and now I got the time to pen down some thoughts. Here are my thoughts on the 20K cases rumour.
First - lawyers are not at all conversant with numbers and simulations that we do.
Two - lawyers have an incentive to create fear
Three - I am fairly certain that a lot of lawyers and other people read this forum and then reproduce the info in different forms on other forums.
Bottomline - I have not seen or heard anything that substantiates 20K rumour. So relax. Another strong reason I would definitely not believe 20K number is because USCIS has really improved a lot under Mr. Khatri in terms of their operations as well as responsiveness. In the old days it would be possible that there are 20K cases lying around somewhere. But not today.
So please put a stop on this discussion and lets not scare people. Agree w Spec that whoever posted it first - did so in good faith - so lets not beat the guy.
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
No wonder, folks on this forum like you, Q.. You have your GC in hand and yet you take the time and effort to answer questions and provide insight to folks waiting in the queue.. And that too at a unlikely hour of 4:30 AM on a Sunday night..
You rock dude!!
I agree with Q's comments above. In these days USCIS and DOS are indeed very cautious about these numbers. I hope this month DD and VB will have some information on future movement. Hang in there... I see light at the end of the tunnel, But not sure I can reach end of the tunnel before this fiscal year. Let's hope for the best, this has been the practice for 5 years now.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
PERM Second Quarter numbers were released.
Report has both Good Numbers and Bad Numbers
Good Numbers,
for last two quarters in 2013
Only 7465 certified are Non-Indians and Non-Chinese. Out of these 7465, based on salary and job level 3911 falls under EB2 Category. Multiply by 3 close to 12k, which is the number we are expecting per month for ROW under EB2 category.
Bad Numbers:-
Out of total 21205 certified/certified-expired, 12404 certified/certified-expired cases belong to Indians. Which is greater 58%.
Out the 12404 Indian certified/certified-expired cases, based on job level and salary more than 80% of them fall under EB2 Category.
If a EB3 applicant has applied for 485, and trying to upgrade to EB2 and if this person CLASS_OF_ADMISSION is Parloee, then 388 Indian applicants in last two quarters got upgraded. 16 Non Indians got upgraded. (I'm assuming that if the applicant is on EAD and applied for second GC, then applicant CLASS_OF_ADMISSION is Parloee; I could be wrong)
how does the 7465 number compare with similar quarter last year. do you know?Quote:
Originally Posted by redsox2009
June DD is out- I dont see any trace of the the extra 20000 visas Ron was talking about. so we can put that to bed