you may get greencard in mar-sep 2013, when you get a chance to file I485 is anybody's guess, pick a random date in betweenQuote:
Originally Posted by buzzguy
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you may get greencard in mar-sep 2013, when you get a chance to file I485 is anybody's guess, pick a random date in betweenQuote:
Originally Posted by buzzguy
No worries. I have made the same mistake in the past. Don't know why!!
Quote:
Originally Posted by bieber
Thanks guys, for all the calculations and number crunching. It really is very helpful.
Please have a look at this http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...and-quick.html
He has upped the dates quite significantly based on the June inventory but we haven't done so here. I was wondering what you guys think.
Thanks again!!!
Looking at current scenario, i am not sure about green card but there is very good possibility that you will get EAD by sep'2012 with current trend. If dates move to may'07 to june'07 by sep'11, i do not see more than 50k demand between june'07 and july'08. By God's Grace ( touch wood) if uscis want to more fee and reserve numbers, you and I might get EAD my march'2012 but this is entirely based on our luck and uscis fund gathering with win-win situation for both uscis and applicants :).Quote:
Originally Posted by bieber
And to get green card itself it might be anywhere between june'2012 to sep'13.
I stopped reading trackitt after some exhaustive posts but After seeing this neat forums i started reading all the posts from various posters. This is very interesting to see how people have different views with same data, some people here are expecting only feb'07 by sep'11 some are projecting july'08 and some other are projecting dates to become current for a month to accomodate more applicants for next year.
From my point of view, looking at the cp mails to 2008 candidates, there is a decent chance for priority dates to reach June/July'08.
CP mails are sent one year in advance, generally. After doing my own analysis and reading meaningless posts on other websites, I have come to the conclusion that a one-stop for an aspiring GC applicant is this site. Heartfelt thanks to Q, Spec, Teddy, Veni and others.Quote:
Originally Posted by grnwtg
It is nearly impossible that dates will move beyond July 2007, we just have to look at pending #s until that date.
Q,
Do you have any updates from your respectful contact please, whose predictions came darn close during June bulletin? It would be interesting to know his/her July predictions for EB-2I.
I think i will check around mid next week. Hopefully he will talk to CO by then. Will post ASAP.Quote:
Originally Posted by TeluguBidda
Bidda,Quote:
Originally Posted by TeluguBidda
On what basis are you saying this.... Until now 11k slipover is used out of 33k estimated ... That leaves us with 22k more .... The demand from oct 15 2006 till aug 01 2007 is around 21k... Let's say even of cis doesn't have anymore slipover to apply for cases > July 07... It still has to move forward to generate cases to work on...
Also cis/dos is not going to work on pwmb and porting cases in the last quarter as they won't have enuf time to finish formalities and assign numbers... People > July 07 hang on tight.... We are going to get. a chance to apply for ead soon... Don't get discouraged..
Sorry what i meant was July 2007 not July 2008. But i have a feeling that by 1st quarter of 2012, people who got priority date till May -july 2008 will get a chance to apply for EAD and then dates will retrogress. And if uscis want more application it might even make it current for a month.Quote:
Originally Posted by TeluguBidda
Can any one tell if spill over will start in July Bulletin or August.
grnwtg this year the spillover already started in Jun. Normally July is when we would see this. So yes, in July we should see more.
Quote:
Originally Posted by grnwtg
As clarified by few knowledegable folks here.. Once July 2007 is hit, if DOS want to advance dates drastically, they will have to do it in Q4 of FY 2011. In Q1 of FY 2012 the supply (around 230 visas per month) will be less than demand and hence dates cannot be advanced by months/years.
S
Quote:
Originally Posted by grnwtg
You reiterated what I said earlier by quoting, "That leaves us with 22k more .... The demand from oct 15 2006 till aug 01 2007 is around 21k". I said in my post that dates may not progress beyond July 2007. Both of us were off by 1 month. If you factor in people with FY 2007 priority dates who could not apply during July 2007 fiasco, it will create enough cases for a complete consumption of available visas for this year.Quote:
Originally Posted by soggadu
Sorry but I did not want to discourage anyone. We have be cautiously optimistic and more importantly, always realistic.
The interesting thing here is that the demand is spread across several months. Lets assume there are 22K of Spill over left.
The question is how will they know that at what point the demand is met.
Say in June '11 they move it till Feb 07, and find there is still 12K available....
then in July '11 they move it to May 07 and find there is still 4K available....
Come Sept '11 they wouldnt know how many more to take in to meet the left over supply...
Bear in mind they have to log in the documents and reconcile supply and demand in 1 month and I doubt they are that efficient.
After typing the message I realized that they already have cases submitted....so they know the 90% of demand.Quote:
Originally Posted by natvyas
Is this the latest I485 pending inventory (incl all service centers + field offices); it says the information is as of June'11:
http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20C...une%202011.pdf
From mid-Oct'06 to Aug'07, there are around 14.5K pending EB2-I cases and 7.3K pending EB2-C cases (considering half of the cases in Oct'06 have PD prior to 15th Oct'06); i.e. nearly 22K pending EB2-I+C applications with PD's after Oct'15 to around Aug'07.
Yes it might be true that they have to advance the dates by September Bulletin but i am not sure if it is a legal rule that they need to advance date only if they have more visa numbers and less demand.Quote:
Originally Posted by skpanda
But looks like majority of here believe that dates will move anywhere between may'2007 to july'2007.
Yes.. most people are predicting that in best case scenario, SOFAD will be sufficient to reach July 2007. Question is how much farther DOS will move the dates so that they can build the demand for next year's SOFAD. They will have to do it in Sept 2011. If they do not then they will have to do it around April 2012 which will be late and there wont be enough time to process the applications at that time. In that case if SOFAD is more, then either visas will be wasted or utilized for EB3.
Quote:
Originally Posted by grnwtg
In July 2007, DOS made it current for both EB2 and EB3.
Is it technically possible for DOS to make only EB2 (and not EB3) current for a month or two, to generate the demand ?
I guess you answered the question yourself.. " to generate the demand ".. the demand for EB3 is known, unless the USCIS has preadjudicated all EB3 cases and want to add on fresh cases to work on..Quote:
Originally Posted by ravi.shah
Not to hurt anybody's feelings. But the truth is, very few people are filing EB3. Because given 9% unemployment, USCIS DOS and DOL together may not see the need to have additional labor.
Its really the business that needs to say emphatically that this is not just another labor - but this is the kind of labor we desperately need. Otherwise EB3 will continue to be severely backlogged for the foreseeable future.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChampU
I think we will have dates moved to late 2007. PWMB and porting cases will create some demand for next year. CIS will be busy working on those and then they are going to move the dates to current in july 2012 to generate some demand for next year.
In my opinion the above scenario is pratical one.
The July bullitein is going to answer most of our outstanding questions.
I agree with you regarding 22k remaining backlog... But when you said it is impossible to cross July 07... I tend to disagree... If they don't build up inventory it is going to be bad for them in the sense that they have to send that slipover I 2012 to EB3 and there would huge dis agreement on that keeping in mind that eb2 I/c are highly retrogressed countries and it would show them in bad light.... If they don't build up inventory beginning of fiscal year...Quote:
Originally Posted by TeluguBidda
It would be lot of work throughout the year to consume slipover .... My 2 cents... Also they can't approve new cases in a month or two and it would need atleast 5-6 months...so I won't count in new cases in the current slipover....
Not sure why they need to start building the inventory at the start of fiscal year. As DOS is becoming more conservative this days, they will atleast wait first quater to ensure they will be able the meet PWMB, porting demand and then i think they will open the gates for future inventory.Quote:
Originally Posted by soggadu
Well, Soggaadu does have a point. I-485 processing for new applications can take a minimum of 4 months. Perhaps DOS and USCIS will push dates AFTER (I repeat, AFTER) the end of FY 2011, to accept new applications. If EB-2I reaches around Mar 2007, they may wait for few months before pushing the date beyond July 2007.Quote:
Originally Posted by neospeed
Does the I485 pending information for June change EB2-I/C movement in any way? I think the assumption was around 21K - 22K pending EB2-I/C cases in all the previous calculations; so this shouldn't alter things drastically. As of now, there are more than 8K pending EB2-ROW cases with PDs from beginning of 2010; can this cause any slow down to the estimated EB2-I/C forward movement?
I just want to throw this out there, since it still leaves me with a nagging doubt.
To date, I don't believe DOS have violated any of the laws which the allocation of visas are subject to.
I said in an earlier post that DOS are constrained by the law such that they cannot allocate more than 27% of the available visas in each of the first three quarters of the fiscal year.
If we take the EB2 China and India initial allocation together, this means the limit is 5,606 * 81% = 4,541 visas by the end of Q3.
This year, that point appears to have been reached at the end of April. EB2-I had received the full 2.8k and EB2-C at that point had received about 1.7k. That pretty much exactly matches the initial 4.5k available.
However, by announcing in the May 2011 VB that at least 12k extra visas would be available to EB2-IC, the total figure suddenly became 5.6 + 12 = 17.6k and 81% became 14.3k (another 9.8k visas). Coincidence?
That has allowed DOS to continue issuing visas in Q3 without violating the 81% limit for the first 3 quarters and tallies quite nicely with the calculated usage for the forward movement in May and June (the last 2 months of Q3 FY2011).
In fact, it explains why the full 12k could not be allocated in May and June.
That gets me to thinking - if DOS are so concerned with staying within the law, it might limit how far they could advance the dates, if they waited until FY2012 to do so. Perhaps more correctly, how much approvable demand they could generate.
They would initially be constrained by the 27% per quarter (of 5.6k for IC combined) and even when Q3 starts in April 2012, they couldn't be too ambitious about how many visas they say are going to available - in case the situation changes. I don't think DOS can realistically make estimates of other Categories usage until at least 2 quarters have passed.
So, it leaves me with the nagging doubt that if the dates aren't moved in Q4 FY2011, it will be difficult to generate sufficient demand for FY2012, if DOS want to stay within the law, as they have tried to do this year.
Although they could generate some demand starting in Q3, as they have done this year, they would have to wait until Q4 for any push beyond that.
Demand generated in Q3 FY2012 might have a pretty reasonable chance of being approved within FY2012 itself - demand generated in Q4 would be unlikely to be approved. That might not be enough to cover the spare visas available.
Of course, I can see ways around this (but not strictly within the law), but it does seem interesting that DOS have chosen not to break that particular law this year.
Others may disagree and to be honest I haven't made my own mind up on the issue. I thought it was interesting enough to mention.
Dude Neo...Quote:
Originally Posted by neospeed
I really feel people are over aggressive on porting numbers... If you look at the inventory of perms, very less number of cases in EB3 after 2006 Oct ... even if all of them want to port... it wont even cross 5K... all wont port... so no worries there... also i believe the porting storm is subsided now... no need to worry about it any more... regarding pwmb, yes there are around 2000 more till Aug 01 2007... so how big an inventory can they build on this basis...
once upon a time, the predictions were for Mar 07 by end of this FY...latest predictions are for July 15 07 by the end of 2011 fy... I dont understand why we need to lower our projections whenQuote:
Originally Posted by TeluguBidda
Total demand = 22k and Total worst case scenario spillover is 21K and more....
your posts always add value to the scenario being discussed...Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Spec wonderful thought process as always. Here is a counter argument if you will.....
To my knowledge, visa allocation is governed by law but date movement is at DoS' discretion and they do it in conjunction with USCIS. So DoS can move the dates as they see fit. They can always immediately retrogress by citing heavy demand. But again this retrogression wouldn't be governed by law. What would an artificial date movement result into is approval of applications out of order from PD perspective.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Very well thought, but i don't think 27% limitation applies to cutoff dates and also DOS may not have any idea on expected demand.
Q, Veni,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I sort of agree with you, which is why I said I can see ways around it and that I am fairly open on the issue.
As far as moving Cut Off Dates, DOS' own document says
At the same time, it also saysQuote:
The cut-off date is the priority date of the first documentarily qualified applicant who could not be accommodated for a visa number.
which gives considerable flexibility - but there are limits IMO.Quote:
The determination of how many numbers are available requires consideration of several of variables, including: past number use; estimates of future number use and return rates; and estimates of Citizenship and Immigration Service demand based on cut-off date movements.
The 27% cannot be totally ignored, but it really only applies to applications that can be approved.
If EB2-IC move into May-July 2007, then PWMB will be enough to use all the initial allocation (for India at least) in the first quarters of FY2012. It could be as high as 7k for IC combined.
That will limit how far DOS can move the Cut Off Dates, since if they have more actual Demand than visas they may issue, they can't move it beyond the date that allows that number to be approved. That would probably only allow a window in Q1 (maybe slightly into Q2), because after that the PWMB demand will probably come on stream.
Hope that makes sense.
Spec I think we all are in sync on that one. So the bottomline is that - DoS is not bound legally as per when to move which dates but they are bound legally as per the visa allocation goes. So the movement of dates really becomes a policy question as opposed to a legal constraint.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
I have a quick question may be its stupid.
If in forums we can come up with demand data by using PERM and I-140s. Then why all people here expect DOS to open gates to get DEMAND data.
Can't they get with I-140 numbers anywayz they also need estimate to move cutoff date?
The 140 demand gets translated into 485 demand ONLY IF dates are current for those 140s.Quote:
Originally Posted by mpurna77
I mean Can't DOS use those approved I-140 numbers to estimate 485 demand then open cutoff dates accordingly with estimated SOFAD. Other than moving dates further into 2008 for EB2 IC then estimate Demand data.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
PWMB estimate 7K for 2007 is way toooooooooo high.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
I worked for a desi consulting company at that time as a senior manager and I remember that every one in my entire team of 80 people, who had filed PERM in the last minute of July 2007 was able to apply. EB3 PERM approvals were liberal while EB2 were tough to come thru and delayed. Further there were substitute labor available in plenty.
All I can say that those who applied PERM in May 2007 had them in hand by last week of July 2007 and the PWMB may be mainly from June 2007 onwards.
I wish they were that smart!
With the kind of infrastructure they have access to, at their disposal, they should have made all immigration related processing a breeze, by keeping track of details and being in sync. But I think we are not here to talk about what they can do, instead are doing what they are supposed to do, and make those details more transparent.
Not a stupid question at all - in fact this is information that DOS want (and need).Quote:
Originally Posted by mpurna77
DOS, through the NVC, know with fair precision how many I-140 cases are pending for Consular Processing, by Category, PD, Country of Chargeability and the number of Dependants at the time the I-140 was submitted.
It has long been rumoured that DOS have been pressing USCIS for a similar breakdown of approved I-140 applications at the Service Centers (very similar to the I-485 Inventory Report).
As you point out, with this information, DOS would have the ability predict future demand in a fairly precise manner and to move the Cut Off Dates accordingly.
I think the request was made precisely to handle the end of the known backlog, but there is no evidence that USCIS have provided this information to DOS yet.