Printable View
Spec hasnt gone anywhere guys. From his last update, I am of the belief he is on vacation (Correct me if i am wrong) and will be back soon.
No updates from Q,Spec or Matt coz there is no new information for them or others to crunch the numbers on.
Q as always has taken a step to provide a rough picture.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jagan01
Jagar, you have put together very nicely...thanks for keeping this forum alive while seniors are taking a well deserved break...
Jagan you rock man..my PD is early 2009 & yes I want the dates to retrogress now (:-- !!!
"Oct 2008 - Feb 2009: They know their dates wont be current soon. They are hoping it retrogresses to 2005/2006. This would translate to less porting and hence less people in from of them in the queue. Eventually it gives them a better shot during Aug/Sep 2014."
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jagan01
Really nice analysis! For the sake of everyone's good, though, I sincerely hope some if not most of these early October approvals were just USCIS paperwork based off 2013 visa number authorizations. Not sure if there is any precedent for registering PR status based on previous FY numbers, but I remember reading about it somewhere. That scenario combined with slow PERM processing for EB2-ROW due to the furlough should bode well for EB2-I this quarter. Thoughts?Quote:
Originally Posted by Jagan01
The demand data website page shows it was updated on 10/09/13 but when you click on it, it shows the old (Dated June) DD. can anyone see new DD?
It is out now. http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdfQuote:
Originally Posted by jackbrown_890
Cumulative demand prior to January 2009 EB2-I is 9000. Very encouraging at first sight.
Well, my bad. The demand data notes proved me wrong:Quote:
Originally Posted by SenorMeow
Quote:
The FY 2013 Employment annual limits were reached prior to the end of September, and no further allocation
of numbers was possible after that time. Offices continued to process Employment cases, submitted them in
the normal manner, and such cases were then held in the Visa Office’s “Pending Demand” file. All eligible
cases were then allocated Employment-based numbers on October 1, 2013, under the FY 2014 annual limits.
If you look closely at the data you would notice that it is suggesting 148000 visas are available for FY2014 however the limit is 140000.
Is this a typo or are they declaring that there are 8000 from FB category?
It was clear that allocations are coming from FYI 2014.Quote:
Originally Posted by SenorMeow
Good thing is that most applications prior to June 08 are cleared as demand is 9000 prior to jan 2009.
It can't be typo... The addition says it is 148000. I do not know if they first key in the total and then the other fields get populated based on the total. If so then it can be a typo. But I doubt it will be a typo.Quote:
Originally Posted by natvyas
In last demand data EB2-I was 24,200 before Jan-2009. Its shows 9000 now. So they were actually able to clear almost 15, 200 applications. I am not sure if this demand data shows first time I485 fillers or not but at first sight this look very promising.
Demand Data does not have recently preadjudicated cases (Pre-June 2008). It will add another 4000-6000 cases on top of 9000 pending cases pre Jan 2009.
If we receive same number of spill over then 2008 should be cleared with breeeze by end of this year (USCIS calendar)
I don't see Spec these days. Does anyone know about it.
Yep. And that statement combined with the disclaimer of 'unused numbers' usage all but officially confirm spillover visas being used.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jagan01
To give more detail to erikbon101's point above, the 9K figure is simply the sum of all July to Dec 2008 numbers in the last USCIS inventory which can be found here + about 925 from June 15th to June 30th, 2008. No surprise there.
All the applicants current in October but who don't get their GCs in October (I believe this will only be first time I485 filers, i.e., EB3 to EB2 porters with post Jul 2007 PDs) will be added to this demand next month. That will be the final DD pre 2014 spillover (although it may have already used up most of the EB2I 2014 allocation, and perhaps even dipped a little into the 2014 spillover).
Also, that's when you can calculate what the real spill over is (well, that + how much EB3I demand falls from the Aug DD to Dec DD, which will help us estimate the # of EB3I to EB2I porters). Rosharma's 15,200 (+ porters) is the upper limit of what the FY2013 spillover will turn out to be.
The real news here, as a few of you pointed out, is the 8,000 extra EB availability (which I can't think of any explanation for other than an early estimate of FB underusage). They won't have the exact number until February/March, so this number may change in the March DD, but perhaps not by much. As Sports calculates, that's 5,712 extra #s, that may all eventually FD to EB2I (although if EB1 ends up using its full allocation, they can eat into up to 2,288 of that) in addition to whatever else FA or FD Eb2I receives. That could push us well into 2009, but the all important number, I still think, is how many EB3I to EB2I porters showed up these last 3 months.
So after all as I posted before date can stay as it is or move further. If porting takes high speed then later in theyear date will go back IMO.Quote:
Originally Posted by erikbond101
Good luck all ppl who r waiting.
Your assumption that "Demand Data does not have recently preadjudicated cases" may or may not be true. Starting OCT 2013, we have seen approvals for first time filers that filed in Aug 2013. Clearly these would have been preadj in or around Sept end. The demand data has data as recent as Oct 07, 2013. Hence these applicants may or may not have been figured into the demand data.Quote:
Originally Posted by erikbond101
If they were in fact included then the 9000 figure looks even sweeter :)
what are the chances of moving dates in November 2013 Bulliten Is it will move another 2 months???????
The years from 2004 had not become current for EB3-I after 2007. Eb2-I cut off date for good part of 2013 was Sep/01/2004.
So the difference between EB3 Inventory and demand data for the years 2005, 2006, and 2007 would be porting.
EB3I Inventory Data as of 07/17/2013
2005 - 6871
2006 - 9055
2007 - 4041
Total - 19,967
EB3I Demand Data as of 10/7/2013
2005 - 6950
2006 - 8425
2007 - 2975
Total - 18,350
EB3I Difference
2005 - -79
2006 - 630
2007 - 1066
Total - 1,617
Total number of porters from May 2012 to Oct 2013 for the priority dates in years (2005 to 2007) is 1,617.
This also shows people in later years are porting that in the earlier years. Looking at these figures makes me believe 3k/year is a good conservative number to use for porting. Any comments?
8076 from July to Dec, so 924 is the remaining, which is slightly higher than half of June's 1,445. I don't think they've included very many remaining applicants, if any. However, I do agree, that in October they will clear out all applicants except for the post Jul 2007 porters, which I expect to be a lot fewer than 4 to 6K (1 to 2K is my expectation).Quote:
Originally Posted by sportsfan33
Sports, same thing here, it means nothing at this stage, except helping us get a little bit of handle on porting. The decrease from the July DD is 9.275K in total of which 6.825k is 2003, and the rest is porting. Of the 2.9k residual 2003 demand, 2.65k is Oct to Dec, which are not current. The rest of the applications are either still being processed, or have already been processed. If they aren't all processed this month, they get added back to next month's DD. I believe they will be processed and the VB will move forward the usual 1 week.Quote:
Originally Posted by sportsfan33
Now visible porting (up to Jul 2007) appears to be around 4.8k, which is lower than most of us had expected, but this hasn't yet taken out those EB3 porters that have not yet received their EB2GCs (although I don't believe that number is huge). Next month, we'll have a more complete estimate.
The DD certainly does not have recently preadjudicated cases, there are no such cases. People were either given their GCs or they are still being processed because their applications are current. Check this post to understand better.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jagan01
In my opinion, None. There will be no QSP until Jan or Feb and even then it's highly unlikely given CO's recent track record.Quote:
Originally Posted by shreyasai2004
If you compare the old DD instead of the old inventory, the total porting numbers increase to 3,125 (the difference attributable to CPs perhaps). Also, the reduction in 2004 numbers is also relevant because it is still porting (even if most of it happened before August 2013). That, I estimate at 1,675, and the total goes to 4,800. But like I said in my previous comment, I expect that number to go up slightly, perhaps to 5,000.Quote:
Originally Posted by dorais
Actually, I take back what i said earlier. The porting demand is closer to 4.8K. I was only comparing the July 2013 to Nov 2013 DDs, whereas it is more accurate to compare the Nov 2012 to Nov 2013 DDs. So, I wasn't including the 2.4K odd porting that had already happened when the EB2I dates were retrogressed between October and July.
Total porting is 4.8K. The yearly split is as follows:
2004: 1,675
2005: 1,100
2006: 1,375
2007: 650
Are the previous demand data stored some where in this forum?
I found the demand data stored here..
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...-FY2010-FY2013
I have a theory but i'm not sure if that's even legally possible. Given the number of Oct approvals and this statement from the DD - "All eligible cases were then allocated Employment-based numbers on October 1, 2013, under the FY 2014 annual limits" - makes me wonder if CO is dipping in to the total annual quota already. I don't believe its legally allowed to issue the whole annual quota in any one quarter let alone one month but maybe CO can explain that away.
The 9000 in demand is about what should have been left if every case (give or take a few) in the demand data prior to June 15,2008 was cleared. There are probably 3-4K new applicants (incl. porting) between July 2007 and June 2008. I think the Dec / Jan demand data would give us the real picture for pre-2009 demand.
The additional 8000 visas are very interesting and a godsend. My high level projection for SOFAD is now around 14K (mostly from EB2ROW) which should clear 2008 for sure and get in to early 2009. Dates ofcourse could move further still.
now Q is whether this will happen end of Sep 2014 or QSP. Upcoming bulletin will answer that.
Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
If it's 9k inventory before Jan 2009 and around 14k Sofad coming(Whenever).Don't the Gurus and expert think CO has to move date in order to have more inventory and also to pre adjudicate the new cases?
I agree. The reason for this is for benefit of USCIS as if they hold up these cases now for non availability of visa numbers then at end of next fiscal year they have to issue mass RFEs again. They can avoid all this by streamlining the process like this. There is no risk of overallocation to EB2I as the dates are still at June 2008.Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
I am not a Guru. However, I had raised the same question earlier and was told that the inventor is already available as there are many other cases pre-adj. Remember that the dates had moved to May 2010 and there have been several cases pre-adj and waiting. So no need to build inventory as such.Quote:
Originally Posted by helooo
I am just copying and pasting what I asked Matt on Trackitt :Quote:
Originally Posted by Pedro Gonzales
Looking at EB3 I inventory report from July 2013, pending inventory from Jan 2003 - Dec 2005 is 27520. Now DD shows 20550 as ending balance before jan 2006.
Looks like the numbers reduced are around 6700 which is the number of pending applications in Eb3 I before Sep 2003.
I think those are the number of SO visas EB3 I got from EB3 Row. And my conclusion is porting numbers that got approved between jan 2003 and dec 2005 are not reduced from Demand data.
So I think there are more porting numbers that are not accounted for yet
IMHO- The unknown number of 4000 is very large and it just would not be right. Same goes with unrealistically high porting numbers put forward earlier. Any variation would not be larger than 15-20% maximum.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sportsfan33
Thanks for your reply.What I am thinking is the exact inventory before Jan 2009 and that can be known only after moving the dates to Dec 2008.I think all the visas will be consumed because there will be enough new cases before Jan09.They did not mention monthly inventory for EB2.How do we know if there is any cases pending before June 15th,2008?I am sorry but this is confusing for me?Quote:
Originally Posted by Jagan01
Well for the CO inventory is the number of pre-adj cases tat he has. He does not care if May 2009 already pre-adj case gets GC before a porter from Jan 2009 can first time file I-485. So he has sufficient inventory. Almost 25000 cases he has that are part of inventory.Quote:
Originally Posted by helooo
I think there might be a confusion in definitionsQuote:
Originally Posted by Jagan01
Demand - pre-adjudivated cases waiting for a visa number
Inventory - all pending cases (demand is a subset of inventory)
Viz, you are correct.Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
Some months back I came across with the case details of a law suit filed by EB3C Vs DoS related to annual limitation crisis, eb3c was less located in 2009 than that of their original allocation, the DoS clearly stated that they have never released additional visas over the quarterly quota in 2009 or in any of the Fiscal years.
EB3C's challenge was to get back the lost numbers from the following year's spillover, but as per DoS's defense EB3C was less allocated because of the applicants' fault, so that the lost numbers cannot be retrieved in the following FY.
PS: I miss Spec here as I am not 100% sure whether the less allocated year was 2009 or 2010. Spec come back man!
My prediction for visa bulletin for this month is that dates definitely wont retrogress.
Because, per DD there are 9000 pending eb2 I cases prior to Jan 1 2009
Per the last released employment inventory report, just summing up Jun to Dec 2008 itself gives around 9500 cases. So my understanding is that DOS assumes 99% of
cases with PD Jun 2008 has been issued GC (for folks who had applied earlier).
Of course thousands of folks with PD in 2007 - jun 2008 would have applied when the flood gates opened in aug , but as mentioned earlier, they will mostly not show up anywhere until Dec when second quarter starts.
So this quarter will mostly stay in Jun 2008 or move 1 month or so. Just my guess.
Agree with you seattlet that basis for retrogression doesn't exist. However don't discount the effect of ongoing portings. If they are more than 300 per month then that is sufficient a reason to retrogress to a date where they will be less than 300 a month.
That's how DOS has been operating for last 2 years as far as EB2IC is concerned.
p.s. - So in that sense portings becomes basis for retrogression if any.
Quote:
Originally Posted by seattlet
Sport - kudos to you for posting this. Indeed mumbai consulate http://mumbai.usconsulate.gov/cut_off_dates.html has dates unchanged for EB2I.
Basically this confirms that most backlog until Jun 2008 is indeed cleared for EB2I.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sportsfan33
May be that's a wrong assumption. May be they used 2013 numbers and the act of sending out notices happened in October.Quote:
Originally Posted by sportsfan33
I Second that undoubtedly. This scenario is the repetition of 2011.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
On #1 - yes indeed. But that doesn't preclude the possibility that the act of adjusting the residence spills over into October.Quote:
Originally Posted by sportsfan33
On #2 - It is otherwise somewhat likely (that they would allocate 3 times monthly quota in first week of october). Given the shutdown thought I would call it absolutely impossible.