EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

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Originally Posted by NOV2007

Indiani,

We greately appreciate your effort to help this forum and for people who are desperately waiting for their turn to get GC. I have been following your posts along with Gurus who post their thoughts here. But you tend to be very pessimistic in all your posts till last week. After AILA meeting when you started saying in next VB its going to be JAN2008, I was very happy to hear it from you. And I just blindly went ahead and booked flight tickets for my spouse. Otherwise I was just thinking let me plan after I see the VB which is scheduled to be next week. Even if COD doesn't move to Jan2008, nothing to blame upon, its just my confidence on your say that its going to be Jan2008 in next week VB.

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Thanks for ur kind words. My information is based on 2 sources shusterman and Oh.
moreover we didn't hear any other contradictory source and also logically thinking even before this prediction came , in my posts I have mentioned that august bulletin should clear upto end of 2007.
Bought the aila conference audio but unfortunately it will be available to hear a week from now.
The PDF version didnt mention august bulletin.
either me or anyone else can only gather data, understand process and apply logic, some like spec are far better than others . so until we see the bulletin there is no 100% guarantee.

"Update (June 27): EB2 India is expected to reach Jan 1, 2008 in the Aug VB." from blog.mygcvisa. , not sure if they also got this info from Oh or some other source

Information regarding the AILA conference on EB2 has been posted on
http://www.jackson-hertogs.com/?m=2013

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Originally Posted by Mini Kumar

Information regarding the AILA conference on EB2 has been posted on
http://www.jackson-hertogs.com/?m=2013

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I think with this confirmation of AILA conference prediction from DOS , it appears that its 99% certain that dates will move to jan 2008 in august.

I will be just waiting for the card production e-mail in august.

I made a futile attempt to know abt AILA conference by buying their audio-files but even though they are selling now, the files are not yet uploaded ( available 2 weeks from the event )

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Originally Posted by indiani

I think with this confirmation of AILA conference prediction from DOS , it appears that its 99% certain that dates will move to jan 2008 in august.

I will be just waiting for the card production e-mail in august.

I made a futile attempt to know abt AILA conference by buying their audio-files but even though they are selling now, the files are not yet uploaded ( available 2 weeks from the event )

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I hope the dates move beyond March 2008. At least I can get an EAD.

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Originally Posted by desitiger

I hope the dates move beyond March 2008. At least I can get an EAD.

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perhaps either on 8th or 9th the bulletin with COD and prediction for sept will be there.
last month surprisingly bulletin came out on 7th few hrs after the DD.
so i expect the bulletin could be released few hrs to max. 1 day after DD released

Hi,
My PD is Dec 2007, I could not file i485 so far. Is there a possibility of getting GC this year or I have to settle with EAD only.

When will I be getting GC otherwise?

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Originally Posted by Vkkpnm

Hi,
My PD is Dec 2007, I could not file i485 so far. Is there a possibility of getting GC this year or I have to settle with EAD only.

When will I be getting GC otherwise?

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there is small percentage of chance you will get GC in 60 days even when they retrogress but if they don't retrogress for 1-2 months ( oct, nov )you have 99% chance of GC.

I spoke with my attorney who attended AILA and she confirmed the jan 2008 date ( have to pay for the call but thought worth it ).

My pd is jan 10 2008. If cod is jan 1 2008 can I still apply?
If not what are the chances of jan 10 being current in sept?

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Originally Posted by chewbaca

My pd is jan 10 2008. If cod is jan 1 2008 can I still apply?
If not what are the chances of jan 10 being current in sept?

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I think jan is well known fact but exact date no one knows, could be feb 1 also.
if turns out to be jan 1, u cant apply

Thanks indiani for answering.

Thanks Indiani

I have an EB2I PD of june 2009 and haven't been able to I-485 yet. I chose CP and was documentarily qualified last time but the interview did not happen due to retrogression. I changed employers and they started my GC petition and i have an approved I-140(CP this time too) with my old Eb2 june 2009 date.

Today I received an email from NVC to pay my fees for consular processing. I dont know if its a glitch but if its not I am thinking they will make EB2I current during September? It is very confusing at this point since CO had just predicted a Jan 2008 in August ( and a few months advancement in Sep ).

I know a lot of EB2I with earlier PDs were not greened when they moved the dates like crazy last time. I will be very happy to get an opportunity to file I-485 this time and I hope they will follow PD order when issuing approvals this time around.

I wanted to let this community know about this CP notification since there were some rumors about dates getting current in September.

P.S : USCIS had not notified NVC when my I-140 was approved in 2012 and couple of months back my attorney requested USCIS to send the approval again to NVC. So, I dont know whether that could have triggered this notification.

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Originally Posted by gcpursuit

I have an EB2I PD of june 2009 and haven't been able to I-485 yet. I chose CP and was documentarily qualified last time but the interview did not happen due to retrogression. I changed employers and they started my GC petition and i have an approved I-140(CP this time too) with my old Eb2 june 2009 date.

Today I received an email from NVC to pay my fees for consular processing. I dont know if its a glitch but if its not I am thinking they will make EB2I current during September? It is very confusing at this point since CO had just predicted a Jan 2008 in August ( and a few months advancement in Sep ).

I know a lot of EB2I with earlier PDs were not greened when they moved the dates like crazy last time. I will be very happy to get an opportunity to file I-485 this time and I hope they will follow PD order when issuing approvals this time around.

I wanted to let this community know about this CP notification since there were some rumors about dates getting current in September.

P.S : USCIS had not notified NVC when my I-140 was approved in 2012 and couple of months back my attorney requested USCIS to send the approval again to NVC. So, I dont know whether that could have triggered this notification.

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Its very unlikely the dates move beyond mid 2008. IMHO most likely they just will cover march 2008.

They have to follow the law and remain within the annual 158K ( including FB).

If they move to 2009 , they will end up leaving majority of earlier PD's which will be highly irresponsible.

Thanks for sharing your info but I dont make much out of it

This indeed is a good news. NVC notice has always been a leading indicator of date advancement. Lets wait for more such confirmations.
Thanks for sharing buddy

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Originally Posted by gcpursuit

I have an EB2I PD of june 2009 and haven't been able to I-485 yet. I chose CP and was documentarily qualified last time but the interview did not happen due to retrogression. I changed employers and they started my GC petition and i have an approved I-140(CP this time too) with my old Eb2 june 2009 date.

Today I received an email from NVC to pay my fees for consular processing. I dont know if its a glitch but if its not I am thinking they will make EB2I current during September? It is very confusing at this point since CO had just predicted a Jan 2008 in August ( and a few months advancement in Sep ).

I know a lot of EB2I with earlier PDs were not greened when they moved the dates like crazy last time. I will be very happy to get an opportunity to file I-485 this time and I hope they will follow PD order when issuing approvals this time around.

I wanted to let this community know about this CP notification since there were some rumors about dates getting current in September.

P.S : USCIS had not notified NVC when my I-140 was approved in 2012 and couple of months back my attorney requested USCIS to send the approval again to NVC. So, I dont know whether that could have triggered this notification.

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NVC fee notices are valid for a year. So it just means that June 2009 may be current in the next 12 months.

"Department of State Publication 9514
CA/VO: June 7, 2013 " from last bulletin

as last one came on 7th and CO apparently eager to move to 2008 jan, I think there is a good chance VB will be released tomorrow

Indiani..you really are an oracle...good work

Updated header to confirm the calculations last week. Other than that no changes really.

p.s. - Visa bulletin generally gets published on the friday of first FULL week or 10th of each month - whichever is later.

Hi qesehmk,
You predicted in the header that dates will retrogress after Dec 13. I have a PD of Dec 07.
In that scenario will I get GC in this year?

Thanks
Vaneet

Vk - I can bet the farm on that one. In other words absolutely yes.

Any EB2I case with PD of 07 or prior that doesn't get approved will have some serious flaw. But as far as numbers are concerned - the numbers will be there for the case to be approved. So rest easy on this one and make sure you are prepared to answer any RFEs etc. All the best.

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Originally Posted by Vkkpnm

Hi qesehmk,
You predicted in the header that dates will retrogress after Dec 13. I have a PD of Dec 07.
In that scenario will I get GC in this year?

Thanks
Vaneet

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Thanks qesehmk. I forgot to mention that I have yet to apply i485. What is the probability now?

VK,

I didn't realize there could be people without 485 filed from 2007 EB2. In that case

Worst case is - CO can retrogress the dates on a technicality and you will have to wait till next Sep.
Best Case is - If you file next month i.e. August or Sep ... with 485 processing time of 3-4 months ... we are talking about Dec 2013-Jan 2014.

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Originally Posted by Vkkpnm

Thanks qesehmk. I forgot to mention that I have yet to apply i485. What is the probability now?

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Vk - I can bet the farm on that one. In other words absolutely yes.

Any EB2I case with PD of 07 or prior that doesn't get approved will have some serious flaw. But as far as numbers are concerned - the numbers will be there for the case to be approved. So rest easy on this one and make sure you are prepared to answer any RFEs etc. All the best.

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Q,

Any idea about the order in which interfiling/porting applications will be processed by USCIS once the priority date become current? Will USCIS process porting applications in order of priority date starting with 2004 followed by 2005, 2006 and 2007 OR will USCIS applications in random order?

I have read many gurus mention that it takes close to 3 weeks on average for porting applications to be processed once dates become current. Since there are few thousand Eb2 I applicants (non-porters) who did not get GC last time before dates retrogressed, will their applications be processed before porting applications with earlier priority dates?

-Nik

There are two orders here right.
1. 485 processing order
2. Visa allocation order.

#1 is generally by PD but filing of 485 makes difference. But for interfiling cases .. the older 485 is already processed.
#2 is strictly by PD.

So in this case the answer is #2.

Makes sense?

So yes .. I would expect an interfiler to receive his GC in 2-3 weeks once date becomes current just like a normal EB2 guy.

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Originally Posted by Niksammy

Q,

Any idea about the order in which interfiling/porting applications will be processed by USCIS once the priority date become current? Will USCIS process porting applications in order of priority date starting with 2004 followed by 2005, 2006 and 2007 OR will USCIS applications in random order?

I have read many gurus mention that it takes close to 3 weeks on average for porting applications to be processed once dates become current. Since there are few thousand Eb2 I applicants (non-porters) who did not get GC last time before dates retrogressed, will their applications be processed before porting applications with earlier priority dates?

-Nik

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Q,

I differ from your opinion here.

I-485 is processed as per Receipt Date order.

PS :Speculation, I may call it , older I-485 is already processed with a request for visa number pending in EB3, here the Eb2 should have a week at least advantage over the former, not that the approvals should happen at the same time .

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

There are two orders here right.
1. 485 processing order
2. Visa allocation order.

#1 is generally by PD but filing of 485 makes difference. But for interfiling cases .. the older 485 is already processed.
#2 is strictly by PD.

So in this case the answer is #2.

Makes sense?

So yes .. I would expect an interfiler to receive his GC in 2-3 weeks once date becomes current just like a normal EB2 guy.

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Makes total sense. Thanks a lot for the explanation.

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

Q,
I-485 is processed as per Receipt Date order.

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Kanmani - I think this would be true when the PDs are comparably close (i.e. within few months max). But otherwise - country category PD will rule the day.

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

here the Eb2 should have a week at least advantage over the former

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What is the basis for this opinion?

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Kanmani - I think this would be true when the PDs are comparably close (i.e. within few months max). But otherwise - country category PD will rule the day.

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No. absolutely not. Processing, I refer to pre-adjudication stage, it is done by Receipt order only.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

What is the basis for this opinion?

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Final step in conversion of eb3 to eb2 is not due until August 1st, it will take sometime (few days?) to appear in the Demand Data, I do not think DoS will hold the approvals of straight forward cases who are already waiting for more than a year in the DD.

I agree that it is purely distributed by PD order but they cannot wait for future cases with earlier PD than that of what is currently in their basket.

I think this is ridiculous. All of us know that EB1 485s are processed much earlier than EB2 ones even if EB2 was filed earlier. So we already know what you say is not true across categories. Then within category .. again all of us know that EB2ROW are processed earlier than EB2IC. So what you say here is not true even within category.

So that leaves us within country. So here is an example - are you saying EB2 2009 PD 485 will be processed strictly by RD if filed earlier than EB2 2007 like VK. I think that would be nuts.

Preadjudication is a totally different thing and has to do with USCIS' loadbalancing. In other words ... they would simply go ahead and preadj all cases they can when they have less than normal load.

So then all of this leaves us with the option I mentioned above. ONLY WHEN PD's are comparably close then RD takes over.

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

No. absolutely not. Processing, I refer to pre-adjudication stage, it is done by Receipt order only.

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

I agree that it is purely distributed by PD order but they cannot wait for future cases with earlier PD than that of what is currently in their basket.

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Yes .. and my contention is that a preadj case is already in the basket and hence there shouldn't be any delay whatsoever.

Yes in a situation, when somebody missed their boat in 2007 and filed their I-485 in the month of feb 2012 along with 2009 ers.

Pre-adj case is not in the DoS basket yet.

Here is what the INA says:

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INA: ACT 203 - ALLOCATION OF IMMIGRANT VISAS

(e) Order of Consideration. -

(1) Immigrant visas made available under subsection (a) or (b) shall be issued to eligible immigrants in the order in which a petition in behalf of each such immigrant is filed with the Attorney General (or in the case of special immigrants under section 101(a)(27)(D) , with the Secretary of State) as provided in section 204(a).

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Since a petition is the I-140, it says that in theory, an earlier filed I-140 with a later PD should be processed before a later filed I-140 with an earlier PD.

In practice, I think that, to USCIS, an I-485 is either Current or it is not and the PD or RD is somewhat irrelevant to them. On that basis, it becomes purely luck of the draw as to when a case that is Current is picked up.

That certainly seemed to be the case last year when 2008 PD cases were approved ahead of 2007 PD cases. There was no evidence whatsoever of sorting the I-485 cases (by RD, PD or by any other order).

Spec - I almost wrote that but thought it would confuse people all the more and hence didn't.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

There was no evidence whatsoever of sorting the I-485 cases (by RD, PD or by any other order).

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

I think this is ridiculous. All of us know that EB1 485s are processed much earlier than EB2 ones even if EB2 was filed earlier. So we already know what you say is not true across categories. Then within category .. again all of us know that EB2ROW are processed earlier than EB2IC. So what you say here is not true even within category.

You got confused between processing vs approvals.

EB1 cases are approved much earlier than Eb2 because of the availability of visa numbers.

So that leaves us within country. So here is an example - are you saying EB2 2009 PD 485 will be processed strictly by RD if filed earlier than EB2 2007 like VK. I think that would be nuts.

Preadjudication is a totally different thing and has to do with USCIS' loadbalancing. In other words ... they would simply go ahead and preadj all cases they can when they have less than normal load.

Processing a case is adjudicating the case right? Whenever there is non availability of visa number occurs, the processing of a case stops at Pre-adjudication stage

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"Adjudicator's Field Manual
10.1 Receipting and Acceptance Processing.

The receipt date is important to ensure fair, chronological processing and to enable efficient case tracking."

Q, Spec & Kanmani

Isn't the situation this year completely different than what we saw last year?...last year, we saw cases getting randomly picked up for adjudication and subsequent approval regardless of PD or RD that I could tell. However, this year cases don't have to be picked, instead, they have already been picked and pre-adjudicated and now it should be just a matter of approving these (i.e assigning a visa number) based on PD or RD (approval based on PD would make more sense to me)...I see this more to be an automated process this time than what it was last year...hope I'm not oversimplifying it!

http://www.uscis.gov/files/nativedoc...8rev102108.pdf

16. Question: Although FIFO is the proclaimed order of processing at USCIS, there has been many observations on I-485 adjudication where people with later receipt date and priority date are approved ahead of others from the same country with earlier receipt date and priority date, especially at TSC. The delayed processing of I-485 cases with earlier priority dates is not only unfair to those petitioners, but also causes significant future visa bulletin retrogression given the large number of pending cases with earlier priority dates having not been adjudicated. What procedure or guideline by USCIS is in place to ensure FIFO in I-485 adjudication, and what additional measure USCIS can take to address the issue?

Response: FIFO is the order of processing at USCIS whenever possible. Cases filed with the same priority date may be adjudicated on different dates due to a myriad of reasons including incomplete documentation in the file or security check issues. The Nebraska and Texas Service Center work diligently to ensure that all cases that can be adjudicated are adjudicated. FIFO is the standard of processing. However, visa availability, security checks clearances, and evidentiary concerns can cause cases to progress at different speeds.

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Originally Posted by longwait100

Q, Spec & Kanmani

Isn't the situation this year completely different than what we saw last year?...last year, we saw cases getting randomly picked up for adjudication and subsequent approval regardless of PD or RD that I could tell. However, this year cases don't have to be picked, instead, they have already been picked and pre-adjudicated and now it should be just a matter of approving these based on PD or RD (approval based on PD would make more sense to me)...I see this more to be an automated process this time than what it was last year...hope I'm not oversimplifying it!

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for the last 6 yrs that i have been following the pattern of approvals, I have seen once PD is current its matter of luck. my lawyer believes the same.

In a sense my nov 2007 file could be picked before 2005 PD.

anyone who doesnt believe in this can wait till august and follow the approvals.

in between, i am hoping the DD will be released atleast later today so VB can come out tomorrow.

I believe the quantity weighs more than FIFO. Before DOS decides to retrogress EB2I in the coming months, I hope all applicants before the cut off date are approved unless there is are "non visa availability" reasons to not to approve any applicant

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Originally Posted by indiani

for the last 6 yrs that i have been following the pattern of approvals, I have seen once PD is current its matter of luck. my lawyer believes the same.

In a sense my nov 2007 file could be picked before 2005 PD.

anyone who doesnt believe in this can wait till august and follow the approvals.

in between, i am hoping the DD will be released atleast later today so VB can come out tomorrow.

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Processing a case is not adjudicating. Adjudication is a small part of processing.

EB1 case indeed gets approved before EB2 (mostly) ... but then doesn't that require processing?

What you quote below applies when as I said the categories and countries are same and PD is comparably closer. That's when yes indeed RD would take over. Otherwise PD would rule.

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

"Adjudicator's Field Manual
10.1 Receipting and Acceptance Processing.

The receipt date is important to ensure fair, chronological processing and to enable efficient case tracking."

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by indiani

for the last 6 yrs that i have been following the pattern of approvals, I have seen once PD is current its matter of luck. my lawyer believes the same.

In a sense my nov 2007 file could be picked before 2005 PD.

anyone who doesnt believe in this can wait till august and follow the approvals.

in between, i am hoping the DD will be released atleast later today so VB can come out tomorrow.

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indiani, you may be right, I don't know what the real answer is...the point that I was trying to make in my earlier post is that luck will have a smaller role to play this time due to the fact that when a case is pre-adjudicated it has already been picked and processed (so no luck factor required for getting picked)...the part that remains to be understood then is what basis does the USCIS follow to grant a visa number to these pre-adjudicated cases...so in your example, what basis would USCIS use to grant a visa number to a pre-adjudicated case from 2005 versus 2007 when both current?...PD, RD or something else?

Kanmani - this actually supports what I am saying - which is - FIFO doesn't work where visa availability is issue i.e. across categories and countries.

FIFO works when country and categories are same and PDs are comparable.

Where visa itself is not available i.e. for backlogged countries - there is no way a 2010 EB2I case will be processed ahead of 2007 EB2I cases even if 2007 EB2I case was filed later - unless both become current. Only when both 2010 and 2007 cases are current and 2007 was filed just now whereas 2010 was in the mix for a long time and hence was preadjudicated .. only in such extreme scenario 2010 would be processed and approved ahead of 2007. However that wouldn't be because of RD.

Visa availability and PD plays much bigger role in processing and approvals than RD.

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

http://www.uscis.gov/files/nativedoc...8rev102108.pdf

16. Question: Although FIFO is the proclaimed order of processing at USCIS, there has been many observations on I-485 adjudication where people with later receipt date and priority date are approved ahead of others from the same country with earlier receipt date and priority date, especially at TSC. The delayed processing of I-485 cases with earlier priority dates is not only unfair to those petitioners, but also causes significant future visa bulletin retrogression given the large number of pending cases with earlier priority dates having not been adjudicated. What procedure or guideline by USCIS is in place to ensure FIFO in I-485 adjudication, and what additional measure USCIS can take to address the issue?

Response: FIFO is the order of processing at USCIS whenever possible. Cases filed with the same priority date may be adjudicated on different dates due to a myriad of reasons including incomplete documentation in the file or security check issues. The Nebraska and Texas Service Center work diligently to ensure that all cases that can be adjudicated are adjudicated. FIFO is the standard of processing. However, visa availability, security checks clearances, and evidentiary concerns can cause cases to progress at different speeds.

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