arnab221,Quote:
Originally Posted by arnab221
Welcome, Your questions is what would be the PD movement in July 2011 VB? or When can we expect EB2I&C with PD July 2011 will be current?
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arnab221,Quote:
Originally Posted by arnab221
Welcome, Your questions is what would be the PD movement in July 2011 VB? or When can we expect EB2I&C with PD July 2011 will be current?
Hello Veni ,
The question is , When can we expect EB2I&C with PD July 2011 will be current , if VB reaches say Feb 2007 in Sept 2011 ?
As a thumb rule add 4.5 years to your PD. ( This assuming that spillover is same in coming years). However I am no Guru.Quote:
Originally Posted by arnab221
arnab221,Quote:
Originally Posted by arnab221
Assuming not change in the status-quo, i would stick to the rule of 6 for EB2I PD post July 2007. (chance to apply i485 in 5 years, GC in 6th year from PD date)
Guys,
Statistics can say what you want them to say. I will try an alternate approach to prediction, which is looking at environmental factors.
Even before the 2011 July bulletin, EB2-I dates have already moved by 5 months. Why did the govt. agency move the dates so early. What is the hurry ? Why didn't they wait till July bulletin ?
Was it that, they knew that the overall usage is low and they would had to move numbers heavily in July - Sept. bulletin. Instead of making a big move in July - Sept., they are trying to stagger it.
I don't have numbers to prove (I guess no one has), but I am pretty covinced that dates will move even more quickly in July-Sept bulletin with 80 -90 % probability of EB2 India date moving to June -July 2007.
Guys,
My gut feeling they will move many months in July 2011 visa blletion. They have to build inventry to have smooth process in upcoming years as the EB2I/C are the only group going to consume un-used visa number according to the law. They are not going to create any more 2007 Julys that said they will move at least one year by sept bulletion. I will challenge all gurus here.If my predictions are not i will come back in sept and i will say sorry.
There is no need to challenge anyone. You are saying that the chances are 100% for the cutoff dates to move to June'2007. The first page predictions are that there is more than 50% chance that the dates will move to April'07. That predictions was arrived at after giving due consideration to the perm data, demand data, inventory data, trackitt data, etc. In toto the difference between what you say and what is predicted on the first page is only 2 months and about 50% in probability. All the predictions are accommodated here provided they are supported by facts and numbers. Cheers.Quote:
Originally Posted by happyboy
Q,
Any updates from your source who advised of substantial movement in the June bulletin? That proved correct so is there anything we can know about July?
Veni - any specific reasons why rule of thumb changes to PD + 6yr after July 2007? At least for years 2008/09 I would think it will be PD + 4.5/ 5 years. Number of PERM filings are supposed to be "low" in those years after all :)Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
What would CO do to EB2I/C for July'11 VB?
I know at least a couple of guys who had left for India for good after the 140 approval. I believe that number would be at least 25% of the pending inventory due to the 2008/09 downturn. Same with people with PD of 2008 & 2009. We can see a big movement in the coming months. I expect end of 2008.
These guys would have option to apply under CP?Quote:
Originally Posted by khushraho
very unlikely suninphx. typically if people have gone back to India, it implies they've resigned from their jobs and employers would have likely withdraw the i-140 petitions. so while their priority dates are fixed, they wouldn't have any option to apply for permanent residence anymore unless they re-start the perm/i-140 process.
GC2011 / Happyboy
What we predict here is the date upto which the backlog will be cleared this year. I do agree that the date movement could be much further than that!! The only caveat is that the date will bounce back (retrogress) if they move it too further into future.
Quote:
Originally Posted by GC2011
Quote:
Originally Posted by happyboy
nothing yet. But will certainly keep updated if I hear something.Quote:
Originally Posted by angryclubs
I happened to come across this thread while looking for EB2 predictions, and really appreciate all the information being shared and put together for all who might be looking for the same.
My PD is 25-01-2008, specified CP in I-140(approved), and recently received an email from NVC. Working with the same employer, initially as a contractor(1-Dec-2004) and then Full time(12-Sep-2006) and then moved to work in India(1-Feb-2010) and now confused as to what to go for CP or AoS, my H1 valid till 15-Aug-2012. They are willing to processes either option based on my preference. Any suggestions are greatly appreciated and thanks in advance!
Its your personal choice first of all. AOS means coming back to US. I hope you are aware of that.
So if I green card is very important to you, then you may come back to US after 1 year so that you can file as EB1 and get your GC within 6 months or so.
Quote:
Originally Posted by lprseeker
All,
Now we have enough confirmation that people with PD in 2008 are also getting NVC emails.... At this juncture I would like to know when does NVC send emails and how soon will they make those dates current? Anybody has any previous historical experience or read any where?? Please let us all know....People started getting these mails from March 2011...
Dude... I think ur question was which is better CP/AOS... They both have their own adv and dis adv... I suggest you read the articles from murty.com about this.... My personal opinion is to go for CP so that you will get your GC as soon as ur dates become current and not wait till your file gets picked up IO... I also say this because there is a danger of dates retrogressing once moved forward rapidly ... If u do decide for CP pay the fees soon so that your case would be shifted to NVC now itself...just my 2 cents... Please take suggestions from ur lawyer too rather than depending on people from forums to take final decision....Quote:
Originally Posted by lprseeker
Hi All,
My PD is 12/02/2007.Is there any chance of being current by next bulletin?
For a Dec'07 PD, I think you have to wait until 2012 to be current.
I cud see ppl predicting that dec'07 can be current by Sep'11 in this forum.
Is there a chance of being current this year?
The trackitt based SOFAD calculations updated at http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...=1716#post1716
No significant change. The trackitt trend is holding.
Q, Teddy, Veni, Spec, Gc and All of you "NUMBER CRUNCHERS",
I appreciate the effort spent by all of you in educating us regarding demand data, PD movements etc.
My Situation is this:
I am one of those in EB2 "NON VISIBLE DEMAND" .
My chargeability is India, I have an approved EB3 I-140(PD FEB 27, 07), on the basis of which I have applied for I-485 in AUG 07. BUT I have also an approved EB2 NIW I-140, which is already linked to my A#. I will be filing Interfile paperwork pretty soon, Ihope.
Does any of you think this hidden DEMAND would be significant ?
regards,
SLOWWIN
My PD is early Oct'07 so am in the same boat as you. From my reading on this forum and others, dates may move till May'07 by Sep'2011 bulletin. As per Teddy, in order not to waste visas for 2012 spillover, dates will be moved to early-mid 2008 latest by April'2012 so as to allow time for 485 processing. It could be earlier too ..so I think we should get a chance to file 485 any time between July'2011(best scenario) to April'2012(worst scenario). Gurus please comment.Quote:
Originally Posted by sunny4gc
With this information and other readings i believe they have already used up 9K SOFAD until Oct 15 2006... so we have 24K SOFAD still left... and 20500 pre adj cases from Oct 2006 till Aug 2007... So why are we still not confident in saying that we will cross into 2007 end?? PWMB/Porting shouldnt be of much worry for the last quarter as they can't assign...Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Thanks whereismygclost for the response.Quote:
Originally Posted by whereismygclost
Lets hope that we all get current in next bulletins.
We don't know how much SOFAD is already applied. Rather than making a wrong assumption about something we don't know, its best to look at full year number and then predict.
Quote:
Originally Posted by soggadu
--> The prediction in your link above; is it for the upcoming bulletin or for this processing year? Thanks.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Sorry for the above query: I think the description says that you are looking at linear demand for year, so the date prediction should also be implied for year. Thanks.
Best
-P
As far as I remember there was a gudeline for spill over which restrict USCIS to be under the country limit till Q3.tweak in that guideline predicts that it could be bigger than previous years.I hope it crosses that July/August Mark.
Nice work Q.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
In the table it says 2011 SOFAD, but if I am reading it correctly, it is actually 2011 SPILLOVER, so the SOFAD figures would actually be 5.6k higher i.e. 37.6k to 41.6k.
As ever, it is still the EB1 performance that holds the key.
May approvals were extremely low compared to March and April. See http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...011-vs.-FY2010
I am still half expecting another glut of approvals before the end of the year, which will bring the figure down. Of course, that may not happen, which makes the figures in the table entirely reachable.
Spec you are right. The 5.6K is additional. In my mind when I think of that 5.6K I see portings + PWMBs. And then I apply all the spillover towards backlog (except may be 3K max for CP).
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Q,
reposting this to see your thinking on this ?
Q, Teddy, Veni, Spec, Gc and All of you "NUMBER CRUNCHERS",
I appreciate the effort spent by all of you in educating us regarding demand data, PD movements etc.
My Situation is this:
I am one of those in EB2 "NON VISIBLE DEMAND" .
My chargeability is India, I have an approved EB3 I-140(PD FEB 27, 07), on the basis of which I have applied for I-485 in AUG 07. BUT I have also an approved EB2 NIW I-140, which is already linked to my A#. I will be filing Interfile paperwork pretty soon, I hope.
Does any of you think this hidden DEMAND would be significant ?
regards,
SLOWWIN
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
slowwin, yours is a porting case (although a bit special since its NIW). But porting so far is not racing ahead nor PWMBs are roaring out of the gate. You are one of the lucky few who managed to convince your employer to file EB2 in this economic environment. So hold your breath. GC for you is just around the corner.
In short there is no such hidden demand anymore.
Quote:
Originally Posted by slowwin
slowwin,Quote:
Originally Posted by slowwin
Patience is a virtue.
I tend to agree with the interesting analysis here http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...and-quick.html
Further Porting demand within the dates likely to be Current and approvable is likely to be not more than 1.5k.
In fact, the total Porting demand looks like it will be slightly lower than originally predicted and factored into the calculations already.
Thanks Q.
My query was based on the assumption that Doctors, Scientists, University Professors etc would go the NIW route(in my anecdotal experience multiple filings for EB1 and EB2 NIW are common).
But apparently not. Thanks for the clarification.
slowwin
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Q, if you are considering the IC quota for portings+PWMB then the spillover must be enough to clear the backlog, so why the prediction is not July/Aug2007Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I believe that your case should see a faster approval than PWMB's because your 485 is already filed, so once interfiling is completed it would move to the EB2 queue. All the best, Optimistically in Jul and definitely by Aug bulletin you should be current.Quote:
Originally Posted by slowwin
My PD is end of July'2008.
Any prediction for when my PD will be current.
Gurus please comment.
Regardless of economy, its still a hassle and a "kaching" to take any legal action for the employer on behalf of employee. Thats the reason we don't see many employers withdrawing I-140. There just isn't enough incentive unless the employee has done something so terrible that the manager wants to pay to hurt the employee. I do not think there is any legal obligation on employer to request cancellation of an existing application if the employee leaves in between.
Quote:
Originally Posted by slowwin
Basically the 32-36 spillover is for full year. So if you look at oct 2010 inventory (and add 2-3K CP) then that's how far that spillover can take you. Right? Or am I missing something. Pls let me know.Quote:
Originally Posted by bieber
I assumed CP cases are part of inventory and looked at Jan numbers, my mistakeQuote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk