Congrats on making the bold move. Thanks for sharing your perspective.Quote:
Originally Posted by pragmatic
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Congrats on making the bold move. Thanks for sharing your perspective.Quote:
Originally Posted by pragmatic
For YR 2009: Since there are 12K EB2-I applications in the 485 inventory, does that mean there are only 4K Eb3-I.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
I have always been so near but yet so far. Wanted to get inputs from Gurus as to when they think the PD Jan 2009 will be current again.
Am kind of losing hope now. What are others with PD Dec 2008 / Jan 2009 planning? Its so frustrating that CO misallocated some of the visa numbers last year and nothing prohibits him from doing it every year.
After the misallocations from CO, I think its pointless to do any calculations/predictions.
May be this is just some frustration that I am venting on this forum, but its been really a long and endless wait.
Jagan,Quote:
Originally Posted by Jagan01
I feel your pain. I am in the same boat, albeit with an Aug 2009 PD. Have you filed for 485?
Iatiam
Filed 485 in 2014. Waiting since then.Quote:
Originally Posted by iatiam
I am no expert, but there is reason for hope. EB2I has been battered from all sides - EB1C filings, Porting, EB4 going to undocumented and increased EB5 filings and overall improvement in economy. However, a lot of these things might change in the next 6 to 18 months.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jagan01
1. Spec says that EB4 demand should persist for 2.5 years, and I hope to see less demand before that
2. If EB3I moves to April 2006, porting will come down
3. EB5 has been under lot of limelight because of abuse issues
4. Just a matter of time before EB1C is under scrutiny. Already hearing a lot of USCIS office visits
I think future looks bright. Keep the faith on.
Iatiam
Hang in there Jagan. I think you will get through this year.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jagan01
I think so too. You are close enough to sniff it - should happen for you this year.
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Does than mean for YR 2009 there are only 4K Eb3-I, since there are 12K EB2-I applications in the 485 inventory.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
There are some factors to consider - one PERM may result in more than one visa - the average I think is 2 visa per perm. Plus - many of these perm might be for EB3 to EB2 upgrades. Then there are EB2s that do not need perm. So the calculation is not a simple subtraction - but the basic premise is correct - there shouldn't be too many EB3Is in 2009.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mohan34689
How about me ? (just kidding...I stopped dreaming.... never stopped reading Q's forum...)Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
Just to say 'Hiiiiiiiii' to all.
Thanks, Q. I really hope so but there have been no RFEs yet. Then again... you never know with USCIS... expect the unexpected...Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Thanks, imdeng.Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
Hiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii Kanmani. How have you been?Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
Q, imdeng, Kanmani, iatiam, and all other long-time members of this forum. Its been such a long time on this forum, that when I read posts from you guys, it feels like reading posts from friends. Hopefully, we all get GCs soon.
Within the next couple of years, many of those old timers would be citizens and many would have already become citizens.
Hello guys new to this forum, EB2 - may 2009. would the retrogression of EB2 I filing date indicate that they would allow using filing date to be used? this might be a positive direction i think. am hoping there would be a chance atleast to file for EAD some time in 2018. i have crossed the perm ocean 3 times.. not sure if i could withstand one more of this new job ->wait 6 months to initiate perm -> perm preparation for 6 months (PWD took 4 months!) -> wait for perm approval 6 months!!!
Hey Kanmani - Nice to see you here after so long.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
I think we will all be Senior Citizens before we will ever be Citizens!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jagan01
Trump Nominates DHS Insider to Serve as New USCIS Director (https://www.murthy.com/2017/04/19/tr...scis-director/)
Should the folks in the queues be worried? :-( This is getting very depressing every day. Unnecessary stress for the creative minds with no clarity.
Hope EB5 Visa expiry or changes to increase the capital requirement will give some spill over (which might be consumed by EB1 though).....hope for some relief....
I've updated the PERM Data with the Q2 FY2017 data release.
Hey All, I am a dependent applicant and our PD is fag end of 2009 EB2-I. We are currently on EAD/AP. Considering the current rate of PD progressions it seems unlikely that this date will be current in next 2-3 years. I am expecting it to be current in 2020-2021. I started a company few months back and we have signed up some paying clients. We can close some more deals in the coming months. We are interested in setting up a offshore office (engineering and local sales). I will be responsible for setting it up and hiring people under me.
So, here is my question.
Can I stay outside of US for more than a year on AP (I can split my time between US and India until the office has stabilized)? If yes, will i qualify for EB1 for Multi National Executive /Manager Category. We are currently not taking substantial salary as we are a very early stage startup. Will this be problem if we decide to go EB1 route.
Thanks everyone.
So true. I just realized its now 9 years since i started the process in 08. My PD of 19 Jun 09 has come and retrogressed at least 5 times. What a ride!Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
Seriously!Quote:
Originally Posted by aquatican
I see June 2009 being current ONLY ONCE during Feb-March-April 2012. I was never current after.
Yeah Man! look at this graph. The blue wait line going low is the EB2 wait time in years . The lower part is where it crosses into 2009 and then swings back. Though you are right it didn't reach June.
Attachment 1182Quote:
Originally Posted by Mohan34689
Thanks Spec for your wonderful work.
Thanks
Suva2001,Quote:
Originally Posted by Suva2001
I appreciate you taking the time to say thanks. Nice to know people still look at the data. :)
Spec,
Regularly I check your data. Thanks dude for your help.
Actually you know, I have friends who are waiting in EB2/EB3 line. Some of them have PDs in 2010/2011. They always ask me when they can get GC or how they can calculate the time to get GC. I always show your data so that they can calculate the time. You probably don't know but you are truly doing a selfless job for many others.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Thanks
Thank you All for the insights...
I agree . Thanks Spec.
Spec - Many Thanks for your work. I won't be surprised if there are thousands of folks who regularly look up your data and work. I surely do.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Spec, thanks a lot for all the hard work! Your insights and data are priceless! You (and Q of course!) are the MVP!Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Spec,
You have been immensely helpful. Your data has always driven most of the meaningful discussions on this forum, which happens to be the most knowledgeable forum for people like me.
I noticed that you haven't updated the data at http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...2012-vs-FY2011 after Oct 2016. Any plans of updating it soon ? OR did you move it to some other location ?
Jagan,Quote:
Originally Posted by Jagan01
The post you reference is now historical for very mundane reasons.
There's a width limit to posts and I can only fit 6 FY worth of data in the width allowance. The FY2011 to FY2016 post has now been superceded by a FY2012 to FY2017 one.
Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Thanks for the link to the new location.
The numbers are indicating that CO should have already retrgresed entire EB1 category. Last year total trackitt approvals were 518 for EB1-ALL and they are already at 515 for this FY. When will CO learn to not misallocate !!
Spec - Thanks for all the number crunching you do. Appreciate it as always.
I have a basic question. If EB2-ROW is retrogressed and if there are any unused visas in EB2M/P, where do they go? Do they go to the most retrogressed country or will they go to the "worldwide pool" for any country to use?
Thanks!
Jagan,Quote:
Originally Posted by Jagan01
Because India dominates the number of EB1 Trackitt approvals (the opposite to real world), you have to be careful looking at just the total number of all EB1 approvals on Trackitt.
As an example, last year 382 Indian approvals on Trackitt equated to 10,985 actual approvals. That's a 3.48% representation.
Last year, 518 total EB1 approvals on Trackitt equated to 43,728 actual approvals.
Therefore 136 non-Indian EB1 approvals on Trackitt equated to 32,743 actual approvals. That's a 0.42% representation.
Even if those % held for FY2017 (and the % vary from year to year), that would give a current consumption of slightly over 30k, because non-Indian approvals to date on Trackitt are only 72. It's also likely that Indian representation on Trackitt has also increased, since it is unlikely that current consumption has reached 13k.
gcpursuit,Quote:
Originally Posted by gcpursuit
By definition, if EB2-ROW becomes retrogressed, then there should be no spare visas available within EB2 (or falling down from EB1).
Leaving that aside, if CO's calculations were incorrect and all EB2 demand within the Cut Off dates set was satisfied, the visas would fall down to EB3. They would first be available to Countries that had not reached 7%, then to the most retrogressed Country. Given we think EB3-I would be receiving Fall Across anyway, they would (hypothetically) probably go to EB3-I (assuming the numbers within the Cut Off Date allows it).
hi Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
m new to the forum and dont know much about the gc process in general I would like to know what this data means.
my pd is feb 2009 i have ead and have been watching the dates come upto late 2008 and go back for the past 3 years.
does this info help me predict how long my wait will be and how can i do that?
Any help from any of the guru's here greatly appreciated.!
Hi Spec,
I have been following your posts but haven't really gotten into the calculations. However, today I tried something and failed to wrap my head around it. From the Jan 2017 inventory report, there are 5613 visas needed to clear EB2-I up to Q1 2009 (my PD is March 2009). Porting from EB3 has been a cause for EB2-I dates to be stuck in 2008. Hypothetically, if we put all EB3I and EB2I in one bucket (assuming additional 2500, 5000 and 1500 in EB3I for 2007, 2008 & Q1 2009), this bucket would have 5613 + 21895 = 27508. Now throwing 5600 visas (2800 for each category) at this combined bucket, it should take 27508/5600 = 4.9 years to clear up to Q1 2009 (both EB3I and EB2I). Is this not logical?
Where I lost it is, assuming only 70% of the 27508 EB3I port, there are two buckets - the remaining 30% EB3I who get 2800 visas per year and the second bucket with 5613 + (27508 * 70%) = 20940 visas. Now throwing 2800 visas at this second bucket, it takes 20940/2800 = 7.48 years to clear up to Q1 2009!
What am I missing? Why does treating EB3 + EB2 as one single line yield ~5 years vs only 70% porting yields 7.48 years? I'm sure I am missing something obvious - but what is it? Does this mean it is a better process to make EB 2 & 3 as one single line going forward and predict better than live with this unpredictable porting? Or is that what will be achieved once EB3 and EB2 cut off dates start converging?
Thanks!!
gcy2k07,Quote:
Originally Posted by gcy2k07
In your first example, you are calculating a time that both EB2 and EB3 would take to reach the target at the same time (5,613 + 21,895)/5,600 = 4.91 years.
In the second example, EB2 and EB3 would reach the target at different rates.
I think you made a slight error in that calculation, since the 70% porting should be of the 21,985 EB3 cases, not the total 27,508.
EB2 would take (5,613 + (21,895*70%))/2,800 = 7.48 years but EB3 would only take (21,895*30%)/2,800 = 2.34 years in your example. The average to reach this point remains the same (7.48 + 2.34)/2 = 9.82/2 = 4.91 years.
I hope I have interpreted your post correctly.
Thank you Spec! Makes sense (also yes, I used the wrong number to derive the 70% porting).
So the average comes to be the same - but for someone waiting in the EB2I line, it matters how the entire inventory before him/her is treated? That is, as one big pool or separate pools? It is ironic that Q1 2009 is reached faster for someone in EB2I if everyone (EB 2 & 3) is considered the same or 100% of EB3 port. But anything less makes the wait longer!