Damn!Quote:
Originally Posted by Vkkpnm
Anyway, how many EB2 visa numbers will be allocated to EB2 India every month from October 1st onward?
Printable View
Damn!Quote:
Originally Posted by Vkkpnm
Anyway, how many EB2 visa numbers will be allocated to EB2 India every month from October 1st onward?
So what was the idea behind moving the dates in Aug 2013 and Sep 2013 if there was enough backlogs to consume all the Visa numbers? Or is it that the dates were moved too much?
They moved the dates just enough to consume almost all the backlog till those dates.Quote:
Originally Posted by JosephM
This is actually a good thing. Visas numbers were not wasted for the year. Now, we wait for the demand data to see how much the dueling powers of spillover vs. porting had on EB2I demand. In the meantime, I'm sure approvals will start flowing again tomorrow for EB2I without regard to any limits.Quote:
Originally Posted by JosephM
Hi Pedro,Quote:
Originally Posted by Pedro Gonzales
Just for my understanding..
Do you mean that approvals will start coming for those who had been allocated an visa number already before Sept 31.
(or)
Fresh visas will be allocated from FY2014 quota. If so, what do you think the max number of visas which can be allocated in next month?
Fresh visas from the 2014 quota. My read of the law is that the USCIS can use 27% Q1 portion of the 40K EB2 quota (note, not EB2I) to satisfy any application that is current. So, technically, if very few EB2ROW applications are current (due to the PERM slowdown, perhaps further affected by the government shut down) all of the visas can be allocated to EB2I if required. However, that would result in an overallocation of visas to Eb2I (effectively quarterly spill over), and I don't think CO is in the mood for QSPs, so I think he has calculated that there isn't much left over demand from EB2I. I don't think more than 3K applicants are left over (not including first time I485 applicants, who's applications are for the most part not likely to be processed by the end of October).Quote:
Originally Posted by idiotic
Thanks for taking your time to clarify..Quote:
Originally Posted by Pedro Gonzales
Pedro, Congratulations on acquiring your Permanent Resident Status!
Theoretically, DOL will stop processing PERM and wage determination from today. Let's say if this drama lasts for a month (like it did in 90's), will it mean higher # of SOFADs for EB2I? or does it improve the possibility of CO using QSP?
If it only lasts a month, I don't think it increases the possibility of QSP, but if it goes for 2 to 3 months, then I think he's going to start thinking about it. However, if it lasts 2 to 3 months, we will all have other things to worry about.Quote:
Originally Posted by PD2008AUG25
Thanks K.
First time in 17 years and it has happened...The Govt Shutdown....
DOL's iCert system is unavailable. Both PERM labor & LCAs for H1B will be impacted
Government shutdown and Obamacare discussion moved to
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...nment-Shutdown
Looks like TSC started giving approvals today. Good Luck every one who are waiting.
I believe they can issue VISAs as long as dates are current in the VISA Bulletin. That's how EB2I got many approvals between Jan 2012 and Apr 2012. After that it went unavailable for that year. I know the law says different, but it is COs discretion whether to issue VISAs or retrogress internally.
On a different note, came to know today from a person in one of famous (or should I say infamous) desi consultancy companies notorious for misusing EB1 and B1s and H1s that the firm is taking some actions to protect itself from the wrath of US government in case CIR passes (because they usually have 100% of their employees on H1bs). They are initiating mass GC applications in EB1C and EB2 so that by the time CIR passes, many of them would get GCs and they can show that they have actually employed less number of H1Bs and more PRs and Citizens (if it applies).
If this is happening then EB2I people should get ready to wait another 10 years.
P.S : I personally know one person who just moved from India (in a managerial role) in one of those companies, just to get GC. That person was promised GC in EB1C to make him move here.
Sad but looks like it's happening.
That company is TCS . This is because CTS and Wipro were already doing it. Infy is probably not in the picture with the latest management issues etc.
Once TCS gets them GC, most of those folks will leave anyways. They didnt do it till now for that reason. And the managers they bring to this country are fit only
to manage herds of folks who will jump from building if asked. I personally knew a few of them on L1 A who are asked to apply for eb1c
Speechless
Hello Guys,
I got following two messages for I485 at separate times today, what does the second message means. Appreciate your QUICK RESPONSE on this.
1. On October 2, 2013, we ordered production of your new card. Please allow 30 days for your card to be mailed to you. If we need something from you we will contact you. If you move before you receive the card, call customer service at 1-800-375-5283.
This step applies to applications that result in an applicant receiving a card (such as a "green card") or other document (such as a naturalization certificate, employment authorization document, travel document, or advance parole). Applications will be in this step from the time the order to produce the card/document is given until the card/document is produced and mailed to the applicant. You can expect to receive your card/document within 30 days of the approval of your application.
2. On October 2, 2013, we mailed you a notice that we had registered this customer's new permanent resident status. Please follow any instructions on the notice. Your new permanent resident card should be mailed within 60 days following this registration or after you complete any ADIT processing referred to in the welcome notice, whichever is later. If you move before receiving your card, please call our customer service center at 1-800-375-5283.
During this step the formal decision (approved/denied) is written and the decision notice is mailed and/or emailed to the applicant/petitioner. You can use our current processing time to gauge when you can expect to receive a final decision.
Congrats on your approval! Don't worry about those messages. You get bunch of them at least six per applicant until it gets delivered and status moves back and forth between CPO and Decision. It is all part of this madness. Enjoy green life.Quote:
Originally Posted by Vkkpnm
Vkkpnm,
Congrats on your approval. Enjoy your green life.
VK congrats. The second message is the act of government making a record of you as a GC holder. The first of course is the act of printing and mailing your GC.Quote:
Originally Posted by Vkkpnm
Thanks everyone for quick reply. Actually I have tickets booked on 10-Oct for India visit for my family. I will be going with them in case we received GC before that otherwise I will be staying here until I receive GC and then fly to India. My concern is now, looking at the second message, If I receive welcome notice asking to complete any ADIT processing after 10-Oct when my family has already left for India, what are my options. Should I cancel my tickets for my family until I receive physical card? Earlier we got EAD/AP for myself and my wife. And my son AP was approved a day before but still waiting for physical document.
1. What are the chances that I receive welcome notice asking for any ADIT processing?
2. Generally in how many days you get physical card after receiving CPO mail?
Hey Guys,
Let us now worry about what companies like Infy, TCS. Wipro, Cognizant and others do.
Yes, there are problems in some cases and we know about the way these companies handle the GC scenario (due to our connections with these companies) but believe me there are others who handle the situation in a similar or worser way. To our eyes, yes it looks like they are abusing but i am sure you would agree that these discussions do not lead us to better predictions. So lets leave the discussions and move on with our interesting predictions.
Have a bright day
~Arjun
Hi Guys,
Do you think CO is impacted because of the Govt Shutdown?
If he is not working will we get the visa bulletin for this month on time?
Do you think he will have enough data to justify a forward or backward movement? or will he play it safe by not moving the dates at all?
Lot of questions to think about.
btw, what happened to Spec and Matt?
Folks,
Has anyone seen this? If this is true and its really moving forward, this is good news overall
http://immigrationlegalblog.com/2013...igration-bill/
Judiciary committee approving it needs to be followed by congress and senate. Then only it goes for president's signature.Quote:
Originally Posted by dexter2010
Thanks for the clarification. I guess I was just excited to see some positive news after a long lull.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
That's understandable dexter.
Quote:
Originally Posted by dexter2010
I guess everyone has gone into the deep sleep mode :)
I was looking at trackitt data and saw that there are 62 approvals for OCt 2013. This number suggests that it Oct we are getting more than the monthly allowed visas. It can be one of the two scenarios:
1. Quarterly Spillovers have been brought into effect
2. People had been allocated visa numbers during FY 2013 and are being granted the approvals in OCT.
I think it is most likely scenario 1 that is contributing to the large number of approvals. If that is the case, the dates might actually move forward in Nov.
I do not think that it is scenario 2 as the approvals stopped around Sep 20, 2013 indicating that the annual limits had been reached.
Any inputs from any Gurus ?
Thanks Jagan for infusing life into this forum. Wow 62 approvals in 4 working days is a great thing..
I assume Gurus confirm that scenario1 is the case as i am someone who missed the boat by 10 days and any little forward movement will help.
Venkat,Quote:
Originally Posted by venkat
It is 64 approvals in 5 days... Oct 1,2,3,4,7.
There are more scenarios for the high number of approvals.
1. CO might be applying the quarterly numbers in Oct. Meaning 280*3 ~ 800. If that is the case then trackitt approvals might stop at around 100 or so. With quarterly numbers of EB2I only, there wont be any forward movement.
2. CO might be applying Quarterly spillover. In that case we can expect ~ 3000 approvals. The dates might move forward if this is the case.
3. People had been allocated visa numbers during FY 2013 and are being granted the approvals in OCT. This is not the case according to my understanding.
It remains to be seen whether it is scenario 1 Or 2. Trackitt trends will tell the story. Tomo is very very important. I see less approvals today but generally Monday has been slow. However, Tuesday to Friday it usually is high on approvals.
I think they could be 2013 numbers being applied in october or people simply updating case status late in trackitt.
The chance that there is any quarterly spillover applied in October is zero. The reason being, spillover can only be applied AFTER at least one month is gone by, quarterly spillover can't be applied before quarter is over but then the timing of visa bulletin is such that Q1 spillover can't be applied before Feb of Q2.
Sorry for being a spoiler. But there is no point in having false hope.
I agree that it is quarterly spill over (as I had repeatedly said would happen since the last VB came out), but I disagree with your conclusion that dates will move forward in the next VB.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jagan01
It is quarterly spill over only because the visa numbers used are higher than the EB2I monthly allocation. CO has no way of estimating at this point in the year what the EB4, EB5, EB1 or EB2ROW usage is going to be, to authorize the spill over in the conventional sense. He simply used whatever excuse he had at his disposal (that based on the information available at that time, he had no way of estimating how far back to retrogress EB2I) to prevent EB2I retrogression as early as the October VB. I suspect that he wants to provide GCs to all EB2I (including pre 2007 porters) so that the current frontier truly moves to June 2008. That will happen by the end of the month (with the exception of post-2007 porters, who won't all get their GCs).
CO can't really use that excuse again this month, so he will probably have to retrogress EB2I now. The best case I can think of is holding dates steady if he can make the case that monthly EB3I to EB2I porting until June 2008 is minimal. Even if he does that, by the end of October, he'll know how much that flow is, so he'll still have to retrogress in the December bulletin. Either way, I see no forward movement this early in the year.
In the meantime, EB2I would still have used vastly more visa numbers in October than its monthly allocation (but perhaps I suspect less than its annual allocation). What this means is that come the end of the fiscal year (in summer 2014), there will still be the full spillover available to EB2I. In the meantime, we'll probably see EB2I retrogress to wherever EB3I is (to make monthly porter demand irrelevant).
I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but I think it's better for you to be realistic.
To be clear, Q and I are essentially saying the same thing even though one of us is saying it is absolutely quarterly spill over and the other is saying it can't possibly be so.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
We both think that there isn't enough information to gauge spill over, let alone allocate it and we both think dates are not going to move forward in the next VB.
Our only difference of opinion is that I think EB2I usage in October will be higher than its monthly allocation, and Q thinks that it is not. That is not a minor point because it has a bearing on what our opinions are on the final SOFAD available (whenever we make an estimate of it), but it has no significance now.
Thanks Q and Pedro.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pedro Gonzales
Q,
The approvals are all dated in Oct. I-485 approval date is Oct. Hence, it cannot be that the users are updating the cases late. Also there is not a single approval between Sep 21-30. Which makes me believe that these are coming from the FY2014 allocation.
Pedro and Q,
I understand that statistics say that there will not be forward movement. I totally concede that based on numbers, we might not see forward movement and CO is trying to drain as much applications as he can. The results will be out once OCt Inventory is published.
However, I am getting this feeling, that CO will move the dates ahead. He knows that until EB2I reaches EB2C, he will have all the spillover to handover to EB2I. If he moves the dates to where EB2C is today, then he will still not be crossing the limits. I do not see this as either good news or bad news. In fact, if the spillover is used early then the movement in next summer will be minimal.
Purely out of intuition, I think that dates will move to 08/08/08. But of course the numbers games as mentioned by you says something else.
Hey VKKPNM,Quote:
Originally Posted by Vkkpnm
Just saw this... Congrattts buddy...
What's the current guess for November bulletin?
To me it seems like high chance of retrogression, with slight chance of dates remaining same and no chance of moving forward. Is that about right?
Regarding how far it will retrogress, the lesser the better news it is for rest of the year, but hard to guess at this time. (?)
Trackit has 90 approvals for OCT 2013. This would translate to ~ 1350 cases approved in Oct 2013. This surely is exceeding the monthly allotment and most likely would end up exceeding quarterly quota. It seems more probable that Quarterly Spillover are in effect. The strategy of CO is unclear at this time and any strategy floating around is pure speculation.Quote:
Originally Posted by civilengineer
The interesting thing is this, all the scenarios are good for someone and bad for someone. Here is what people with different PDs would be hoping:
1. Jan 2004 - Dec 2006: Ideally they might want dates to retrogress to Dec 2006. This would give them a much better change of getting GC as they do not have to worry about 2007,2008 guys getting ahead of them and taking away their chance.
2. Jan 2007 - Jun 2008: They are hoping dates stay as they are today. Most likely a retrogression might take them out of the picture and hence they might want dates to stay where they are.
3. Jun 2008 - Oct 2008: They would be hoping that the dates move forward and they at least get a chance.
4. Oct 2008 - Feb 2009: They know their dates wont be current soon. They are hoping it retrogresses to 2005/2006. This would translate to less porting and hence less people in from of them in the queue. Eventually it gives them a better shot during Aug/Sep 2014.
5. Mar 2009 onwards: Just hoping that dates move forward. So they at least get a chance to hope. Frankly these people would be more concentrating on CIR then visa bulletin.
Jagan,
You seem to have good intuition. I was a silent reader of the blog for last few years. I was amazed at your guess predicting the GC for Indiani exactly. Hope your intuition of dates of EB2I moving till EB2C will also become a fact.
Thanks for summarizing the approvals from Trackitt. You are the new Spec for us.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jagan01
Thanks for the kind words...Quote:
Originally Posted by magva99
No one can replace Spec... He is the best when it comes to numbers and statistics...
I sincerely hope that everyone should get back to this forum... We need your guidance and inputs... Common guys... Spec, Indiani, Viz, Matt... I haven't heard from these guys for a long time...
Nov 2013 predictions ??