The Annual Report 2013 CIS Ombudsman June 27, 2013 has been published.
I have not read through it yet.
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The Annual Report 2013 CIS Ombudsman June 27, 2013 has been published.
I have not read through it yet.
considering that jan 1 , 2008 is going to be COD in august bulletin , about 8K EB2I applications will be approvable.
will most of these approvals happen within a week or will it be spread thorugh out the month evenly? ( I haven't followed the approval pattern when there is a significant movement of this magnitude ).
In between exactly as spec predicted the information about COD was available this morning based on the conference thursday evening at AILA.
indiani,Quote:
Originally Posted by indiani
8k is only the known demand per the Demand Data.
Additional to that are any porting cases that could not be shown in the DD under EB2 because their PD has never been Current since they interfiled the documentation. That could add another 25-50%.
I don't think USCIS can approve even 8k in a week, so they will be spread out over the month IMO, especially as porting cases may take slightly longer to approve.
Is it best to just wait or better to be pro-active like open SR etc?Quote:
Originally Posted by billu77
Spec,
Did you get a chance to analyze the links posted in your below post. Is there any indications on to what date COD could reach in AUG2013VB? If I can get to know exactly what the COD can be in AUG2013 I can plan accordingly(I mean I can have buffer time). Otherwise no other go I need to wait untill Jul10 to make some personal decisions and then I have to act in rush if COD reaches end of 2007. Your help here will be greately appreciated.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
EB2I- Jan1st 2008 ( Aug bulletin )Quote:
Originally Posted by NOV2007
based on law firm website ( this is the latest and best prediction out there )
USCIS All Forms Data for Q1 FY2013 has finally been published.
http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources...y2013-qtr1.pdf
http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources...y2013-qtr1.csv
I-485 Employment Adjustment Receipts
October 2012 --- 5,794
November 2012 - 10,009
December 2012 -- 8,129
Total --------- 23,932
I-485 Employment Adjustment Approvals
October 2012 -- 12,587
November 2012 - 12,077
December 2012 -- 8,869
Total --------- 33,533
These numbers only include applications processed by USCIS i.e. AOS
27% of the 140,000 EB allocation that were known about at that time is 37,800.
Assuming that number was hit (as seems likely), CP numbers would represent 11.3% of the total.
As suspected, it appears that approvals had to be throttled in December 2012 to stay within the 27% limit.
Guru's while we are hearing that in August Bulletin dates will reach Jan 1st 2008 for EB2 folks , do you honestly see any further moment into end of Feb 2008 or into March 2008 by Sept Bulletin?
most likely it might advance few months. you can wait for CO's prediction when the bulletin is out to get better sense.Quote:
Originally Posted by coolvibe
I worked for TCS before 6 years ago and I have several friends in TCS. I heard from my friends that they are collecting data for all the L1A candidates to apply for GC in coming months under EB1. This is a big blow for EB2-I resources.
They are doing this in preparation for the new CIR law( if it passes house). Even if it does not pass house they are going to do GCs for some of them as a back up plan.
only one attorney' s website so far mentioned the jan 2008 COD and as of today I was expecting more to share the news ( assuming that news is reliable from immigration-law )
What are the chances of Mar 2008 PD to become current this year? If Cir passes, is the effective date going to be 10/01/2014(fy2015) - would the dates contiue to move from july 2014 once they are retrogressd in oct 2013?
this fiscal year, most likelyQuote:
Originally Posted by Guest123
if cir passess, when its effective everyone will be 'C'. as it still has to go to house , then thru conference, no one can say exact effective date.Quote:
If Cir passes, is the effective date going to be 10/01/2014(fy2015) - would the dates contiue to move from july 2014 once they are retrogressd in oct 2013?
too soon to say when dates will move next fiscal yr
Shusterman Posted in his website
July 2013 Visa Bulletin – This month’s Visa Bulletin contains some good news, especially for those waiting in line for the worldwide employment-based third category. We include the State Department’s predictions for the next few months. We learned at the AILA Conference in San Francisco last week that the State Department intends to advance India EB-2 to January 2008 in August and that worldwide family-based 2A will become current.
http://shusterman.com/newsletterusim...LY2013.html#a8
Thanks for the link.Quote:
Originally Posted by WaitingGC
I guess as everyone thinks that feb 2008 is going to be reached by sept; murthy, fragomen and other sites aren't particularly excited about this latest prediction by DOS.
I think now if it doesn't move to atleast jan 2008, its going to be extremely dissappointing but I guess it appears the chances are extremely high that COD will be jan 2008
Most of the LAW Forums posting as Jan 1st 2008 in July Visa Bulletin.. Is it True ? As I see there is no concrete information anywhere, everyone showing fingers on others.
jan 2008 came up only after AILA.Quote:
Originally Posted by indiasunil
If you are aware of any other site other than oh and shusterman, please share the link.
Its only a week or so from now before we know for sure but it might feel like a looong time
Friends,
Just a word of caution on date movements. Date movements are at the mercy of DOS and hence quite difficult to predict. There is nobody except CO / DOS who can say with certainty when and how the dates will move month to month.
However, the way this forum has established forecasting - if one follows the discipline of looking at inventory, looking at past trends, labor data, I-140 data etc and then try to calculate (or better yet simulate visa allocation process) - one can easily predict where dates will be approximately at by the end of current fiscal.
Given that apparently this particular piece of info came from CO (in an AILA meeting apparently) the info is credible. But as we have always said - don't agonize over month to month movement. Try to see hte big picture and understand generate trend. Nobody can ever predict very precise dates unless USCIS/DOS start publishing monthly inventory and usage.
CO has given few of wrong predictions to AILA in the past year alone . Examples given below. However given that the bulletin for Aug will release in few days, there can be 25 % error in guessing on his part (my guess) but there will still be significant movement as per widely available news.
mar 2012 : CO predicted EB2 india and china will retrogress to aug 2007 in summer. (EB2 India became unavailable in summer after staying for a month in aug 2007)
Apr or May 2012, he predicted that EB2 india will bounce back to May 2010 during next fiscal year (after retrogressing it). He never mentioned it will become unavailable.
mar 2013 : CO predicted Eb2 india to have possible retrogression
Just confirms what others in this forum have been saying all along. He sometimes has no clue of what is going on...
I remember last year's movements and never given much weight to CO's predictions but this time around even though oh's firm is not one of the best known sites, the actual expected cutoff dates in aug/ sept coincides with what he (oh) has mentioned for august and moreover shusterman mentioned the same.Quote:
Originally Posted by seattlet
I would say there is 95% chance that it will be jan 1 08 IMHO.
It is practically impossible for anyone to guarantee a certain COD before the VB is released. In my opinion, we should consider CO's prediction made at the AILA meeting more as an indication of what's coming in the Aug/Sep VBs rather than holding him exactly to those dates.Quote:
Originally Posted by seattlet
Based on the data and calculations that many have done for making the EB2I COD predictions on this forum as well as other, we know that the dates for EB2I will certainly advance, anywhere from the end of 2007 to early 2008 by the Sep VB. So looking from that perspective, a COD of Jan 1st 2008 in the Aug VB is in line with most people's expectations/calculations.
Once dates move to Jan 08 in the Aug VB, starting 1st of August , will approvals tirckle down based on the Priority dates or will it be the haphazard manner like the last time. WHat are the general guidlines for approvals during a big movement such as this upcoming one . Also, for those applications that were Rfed earlier in 2012 and responded to , with out any new RFE now , is it assumed to be pre-adjudicated and just awaiting visa # allocation . I understand technically an RFE could be issued any time .
Header updated with latest predictions. I am slightly more optimistic than previously. Good luck.
Q
conflict of interest wouldn't harm anything in this case. Hope you will reconsider your decision and continue to contribute
it depends upon whether a case is already pre-adjudicated or interfile and also the service center and IMHO they randomly pick from all the applications which are current, in the sense dec 2007 can get few days before jan 2005.Quote:
Originally Posted by Eb2_Dec07
Mine is pure speculation and others may differ in how the GC's are issued based on PD, I will be glad as long as they issue mine in august ( 2007 PD).
I think most of the applications should be pre-adjudicated by august 1st, so most ( not all ) of the GC's may be issued in the first 1 week ( even though when I asked spec the same question he felt GC's might be issued through out the month and it makes sense as there will be approx 10K issued ),
P.S : my opinions are biased based on expectancy bias and not as objective as others who aren't counting days for the GC
Thanks for sharing your thoughts. I dont blame you for being hopeful. I'm Dec 2007 Eb2 dependent with pending 485 . My spouse already got 485 approved in the early part of 2012 . I have not traveled back to India in the last 7 years , subject to employment changes with H1B and did not do so despite AP while hoping for GC approval .Quote:
Originally Posted by indiani
have you spoken to your lawyer about the august bulletin ( or anyone else who is reading this post ), I believe many attorneys attended AILA and they should have known unless the DOS attorney whom Oh is mentioning in his site has spoken to him exclusively..Quote:
Originally Posted by Eb2_Dec07
My attorney charges upto 100$ to read and reply to email and probably as much to talk on phone and most of the times its useless and vague information.
I emailed my attorney , but have not heard anything yet. I did hear from some of my acuaintances reaffirming the expected movement in the upcoming bulletin via their sources in their respective orgs . I'm optimistic of the predicted movement , however by the same token , I'm a little cautious of the allotment of visas based on PD VS randomly. Anyways , only few more days till we know .Quote:
Originally Posted by indiani
U sold out man :) JkQuote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I hope u contribute atleast by reacting to others assumptions or calculations and by occasionally dropping a tidbit based on ur experience and the tool
LoL Viz. Certainly not retiring or anything. Only that dont want to spend time doing manual forecasting that a tool can do with reasonable accuracy.
Started this in Jan 2010. Got my own GC mid 2011. And trying to hang my hat in Sep 2013. Meanwhile many more people already know all the techniques I used. There is nothing really secret and I guess this forum has really laid it out very open. All other gurus are also very open in terms of what they think and what they base their assumptions on.
Meanwhile created a tool - which I believe is in a very good shape. User experience improvement is ongoing work. But I think the tool fundamentally is sound.
I guess others will continue to predict and calculate manually. I too will do so until Sep 2013. After that I will focus my time more on moderation and any other advice/ insights / personal experiences I can share. Hope that sounds reasonable to most folks.
Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
Interfile and AC21 180 day rule
Gurus,
After successful interfiling and linking of a pending I-485 to new EB2 I-140( from old Eb-3 I-140), do we need to wait for 180 days from the day interfiling happened before switching to a similar job using AC21.
My I-485 has been pending since 2007 and my new EB2 I-140 was linked to it last week. Does this mean that I need to wait for 180 days before using AC21. My PD of Dec 2006 will be current next month.
The reason for asking this question is that I work for a Fortune 500 company and my company is planning to spin off my division to open a new company pending board approval. Though this process might take more than a month and I am trying my best to ensure that they do not move to this new company till I get my gc, I just wanted to know what my options are in case they move me to a new company with exactly similar role.
I have asked my attorney to share any information that they may have from the AILA meeting as well, but I haven't heard back from them yet. I'm waiting for the August bulletin to see if there might be any insight from CO about the September bulletin. If not, and if my March '08 PD does not become current in August bulletin (which looks like it probably may not), I am seriously considering purchasing the audio recording of the AILA meeting available at the following link (which Spec had pointed out in one of his earlier posts):Quote:
Originally Posted by indiani
http://agora.aila.org/Product/Detail...el=description
If anyone else is interested in pitching in at that time, we can share the downloaded material amongst ourselves and probably provide a gist to the group here (due to legality, or lack thereof, of sharing original files). Let me know if anybody is interested in pitching in.
I will buy and tell u whats in itQuote:
Originally Posted by pseudonym
i tried to buy but it appears that we can't download right away and its going to be shipped which might reach me at the same time bulltin is released. moreover this message concerned me:
Attention Non-Members
AILA will not accept orders or conference registrations from persons who provide representation without authorization in violation of 8 CFR Part 292 such as for profit "immigration consultants" and "notarios". Please check this box as proof of compliance with the above restrictions
You don't fall in that category indiani. That is meant for people who would try to obtain information on behalf of somebody without authorization e.g. I trying to get your case status when you haven't explicitely given me the consent.Quote:
Originally Posted by indiani
This 60 minute session was recorded at the AILA Annual Conference in June 2013. This product includes an audio recording in MP3 format and a PDF file of PowerPoint presentation slides and/or articles needed for CLE Credit; available for download via your Digital Library on Agora.
probably i can download rightaway, i will buy and see what happens
Read the entire downloaded version, nothing new, may be its useful for someone who wants to know how the dates are moved.
I think the entire reason of waiting till august is to deprive all new ( i-140 approved and never 485 filed ) applicants of ability to get GC this fiscal year as these are not known in the DD, rest of them are reflected in the DD.
Thanks indiani for providing feedback on the downloaded version. It is disappointing to hear that there is not much information about future projections. The AILA download link says the following:Quote:
Originally Posted by indiani
------------------------
"The movement of the numbers on the Visa Bulletin, forward and back, is one of the most poorly understood areas of immigration practice. Primary sources from the U.S. Department of State (DOS) will provide insight into the following:
-Interaction Between Family¡V and Employment-Based Preferences
-Interaction Between USCIS and DOS on Visa Numbers
-Charting the Interaction
-FY 2014 Projections and Beyond..."
------------------------
I would have thought they might have at least spent some time talking about the last point (2014 projections).
Let's hope CO includes some additional information in the Aug bulletin.
The slides are pretty good in explaining how the process works, for eg: 140 approved and just waiting to apply 485 cases will not be reflected in DD, and EB3 and EB2 are counted twice, FB spillover etc.,Quote:
Originally Posted by pseudonym
But spec probably knows everything thats there and even more.
It just didn't have the PD of august
the audio will be released a week from now and I dont know why they start selling it now when the audio is not yet uploaded.
Indiani,
We greately appreciate your effort to help this forum and for people who are desperately waiting for their turn to get GC. I have been following your posts along with Gurus who post their thoughts here. But you tend to be very pessimistic in all your posts till last week. After AILA meeting when you started saying in next VB its going to be JAN2008, I was very happy to hear it from you. And I just blindly went ahead and booked flight tickets for my spouse. Otherwise I was just thinking let me plan after I see the VB which is scheduled to be next week. Even if COD doesn't move to Jan2008, nothing to blame upon, its just my confidence on your say that its going to be Jan2008 in next week VB.
Quote:
Originally Posted by indiani