EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

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Originally Posted by Jonty Rhodes

Nishant usually posts these but today I am posting this.

Found it on CM's US Non-Immigrant Blogspot

This is what CM had to say for the December Visa Bulletin and EB2IC movement.

EB2-India & China Movement

Dates for EB2-IC has crossed into cut-off date of March 2008. It is impressive to see that Mr. Oppenheim is taking different approach this year and we should applaud him for his efforts. Since Mr. Oppenheim is taking different course for FY 2012, we believe that we should also keep our dogmatic approach to number crunching away for sometime until it make sense to do so. We should try to speculate what can happen in next few bulletins and successive months from their until summer 2012. We may be 'out to lunch' with this approach but can very well veer back to number crunching if this does not make sense in next few bulletins.

We believe retrogression is imminent in summer 2012; only exception will be HR 3012 if it will become a law by that time. We know that current movement upto March 2008 from 15 April 2007(Sep VB date) would easily bring demand that could end up using around 28K-30K visas from 140,000 available EB category visas. These are definitely in par with what we would usually see year-to-year with EB2-IC spillover + 5600 annual limits.

Question is so what can we expect from Mr. Oppenheim hereon? Firstly, we can say he has no clue that what real demand is due to such movement and lets presume he might not get hold off this until next two months ( that too only if he decides to persuade USCIS to tell him the numbers based on receipts issued).In reality, he may have to wait for real count on demand until April-May 2012 when such cases will start to become documentarily qualified and USCIS will start requesting for visa numbers.

That said, Mr. Oppenheim may not still be done with intaking more applications for this fiscal year. First, based on past year trend on visa use, monthly demand and estimations, EB2-IC had always moved around 11 months each year. By moving dates upto March 2008, he had just covered those bases. But still he does not know what would happen with HR 3012, whether it will pass with effective date of 01 September 2011. We know from our estimation on this bill, that cut-off dates until PD June 2008 would easily be current if this bill is passed. With approximation on fall-outs due to unforeseen reason, we can expect PD July-August 2008 to be current. If Mr. Oppenheim will stop such movement from next visa bulletin, he may miss that window on keeping cases ready for adjudication in case HR 3012 will become a law as he mentioned in previous bulletin that it can take 4-6 months to get these cases adjudicated. As I mentioned ,this is a speculation and I may be out to lunch but we believe in coming bulletin(s), EB2-IC dates may move all the way from June 2008-August 2008. Once, DOS will have enough applications in hand, it will be pretty straight forward for DOS to retrogress EB2-IC or EB2-ROW in summer 2012, whatever is appropriate based on fate of the bill.

Now who can expect Green Card for FY 2012? and how will dates retrogress? One thing to keep in mind with USCIS is that they will approve cases randomly usually based on month of filings, regardless of Priority Date. Now since most of the July 2007 backlog is cleared, I believe in 4 to 6 months when such cases will start becoming documentarily qualified, we will start to see approvals. Usually in such case, application filed at NSC will have upper hand compared to TSC filings due to vast difference in processing times. Generally during these months of the year, TSC will only approve 6000-8000 cases and NSC will approve around 10,000 cases consistently. So please do not be surprised if NSC case that become current in December bulletin will see approval before November bulletin cases. This is very common with USCIS. Approvals will be random. File your cases as perfect as possible so that you do not receive RFEs. In general, FY 2012 for EB2-IC will be exceptional with respect to approvals, with dates all over from August 2007 PD to March 2008 PD getting randomly approved. Once DOS will feel that enough visa numbers are used for EB2-IC based on EB1 and EB2-ROW demand, at that time dates may retrogress upto PD 01 Sep 07- 01 Nov 07. This is when we will start to see some huge numbers in demand data and we can go back to our number crunching and predictions based on calculations. For some time we believe VB movement and approvals at USCIS will be random.


This is the link for entire article.

http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...mber-2011.html

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Good article ..except retrogession part..which I dont agree with at this point in time

Similar issue, but with my last address outside U.S. My lawyer had mentioned 'Please refer to addendum' in the G-325A form and attached an addendum with just this info.

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Originally Posted by GreenReddy

Hi Guys,

I am trying to fill the G-325A form but there is no enough Space For Last and Middle Name.

Can Guru's help me on how to fill this out???

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

thank you Dr. Jonty.

I in fact am not too much opposed to what CM is thinking. It is a plausible theory what he is saying.

There is another bill introduced in senate similar to HR3012, the S.1857, which looks like they have done so as to hasten up the process, so that in parallel Senate can also start thinking about this law change. It seems like then if House passes, then HR 3012 and S.1857 would be need to mixed and tweaked and again agreed upon by both house and senate. I am not expert in this, but common sense says, something is afoot, at least there is a lot of trying going on. Lets hope for the best.

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Please check advocacy thread

Gurus,

I'm current from Dec 1st and currently in the process of filling Forms. I don't have copy of my approved I-140 (employer doesn't share). Now while filling I-485 et all forms, can the A# Box be left as BLANK? Any problems if left BLANK?

Thanks.

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Originally Posted by mygctracker

Gurus,

I'm current from Dec 1st and currently in the process of filling Forms. I don't have copy of my approved I-140 (employer doesn't share). Now while filling I-485 et all forms, can the A# Box be left as BLANK? Any problems if left BLANK?

Thanks.

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Yes you could, as long as your employer include copy of approved i-140 in the packet before sending to USCIS.

Thanks Veni bhai...:-) It is my understanding that my employer would include copy of approved I-140 in the packet.

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Originally Posted by veni001

Yes you could, as long as your employer include copy of approved i-140 in the packet before sending to USCIS.

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Neither me.

I bet we will see the dates move to Sept 2008 for sure. This is not based on numbers, but purely based on past figures. May not get the GC, but will file for I 485.

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Originally Posted by suninphx

Good article ..except retrogession part..which I dont agree with at this point in time

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I-485 Filing Instruction PDF says:

"If Extra space is needed to complete any item, attach a continuation sheet,indicate the item number,and date and sign each sheet"

http://www.uscis.gov/files/form/i-485instr.pdf

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Originally Posted by GreenReddy

Hi Guys,

I am trying to fill the G-325A form but there is no enough Space For Last and Middle Name.

Can Guru's help me on how to fill this out???

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Originally Posted by RMS_V13

Neither me.

I bet we will see the dates move to Sept 2008 for sure. This is not based on numbers, but purely based on past figures. May not get the GC, but will file for I 485.

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Interesting comment. I'm curious as to how u differentiate between "numbers" and "past figures". I'd love for the dates to mov to sept but I don't see it happening.

Now that we are fine with 2.5k density as max, and 3k porting as max, and also the idea that CO wants 30k + buffer, we can redo the numbers done earlier.

Oct VB, 15th april to 15th july 2007 caused 5400 reduction in demand data, 2.5k still left as preadjudicated ready to go.

Nov VB, 15th july 2007 to Nov 1st : 8.5k incoming, includes 2.5k PWMB

I am adding 1000 more who were leftovers in late 2006 and early-mid 2007, who were not in demand data for Oct VB, due to various reasons like RFE or just slipped through the cracks, or did not show up in demand data, etc.

Also he started the year with around 8k ready to go, and he was comfortable consuming it with QSP. So let's assume he would be ready to have 5k buffer at least to begin the next FY 2013.

Total so far: 5400 + 2500 + 1000 + 8500= 17,400 let’s consider 17.5k

Going by past two years trend, CO would want 30k minimum, even not considering buffer. Lets consider 5k buffer as optional. This is now confirmed looking at aggressive movement.

To grab hence:
14.5k with 5k buffer considered and 3k porting

Considering 2.5k max density, he needs further movement of 5.8 months i.e. 6 months

Now this is until the November VB. In Nov VB he already moved 4.5 months. The demand data can be ignored, it's negligible. Hence, for 30k + 5k buffer, he needs to move 1.5 months more, that will take him to 1st May 2008.

If we consider the simplistic assumption of demand = number of PERMs, the postulate that was being talked about on forum some pages back, I added the number of PERMs for EB2-EB3 India China from August 2007 to June 2008, and the average was 2466. But this includes EB3 also. If we say 75% of it is EB2, then 1850 EB2 PERMs. Even if you add a random 200 NIW, its around 2k density. With this simplification, the density goes way lower, and hence you can imagine the dates would extend much further from 1st May 2008, going well into the period for which NVC fee notices were sent, which was June 2008 latest what we know of.

The real density may lie somewhere in between the assumption of demand equals number of PERMS and the 2.5k.

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

REPOST with correction.

ok, let's take analysis of Teddy on the numbers mixed with bit of mine, to do worst case analysis.

Oct VB, 15th april to 15th july 2007 caused 5400 reduction in demand data, 2.5k still left as preadjudicated ready to go.

Nov VB, 15th july 2007 to Nov 1st : 10k incoming, includes 2.5k PWMB

I am adding 1000 more who were leftovers in late 2006 and early-mid 2007, who were not in demand data for Oct VB, due to various reasons like RFE or just slipped through the cracks, etc.

Also he started the year with around 8k ready to go, and he was comfortable consuming it with QSP. So let's assume he would be ready to have 5k buffer at least to begin the next FY 2013.

Total so far: 5400 + 2500 + 1000 + 10000 = 18,900 let’s consider 19k

Going by past two years trend, CO would want 30k minimum, even not considering buffer. Lets consider 5k buffer as optional.

To grab hence:
1. 11k with no buffer considered and no porting
2. 8k with no buffer considered and 3k porting
3. 16k with 5k buffer considered and no porting
4. 13k with 5k buffer considered and 3k porting

Per the 485 inventories of past year, let's say CO has seen a 2.5k density each month for EB2IC. And since he is delaying the Dec VB release, say he looks at incoming data as well as the PWMB who filed in Nov VB, and extrapolates to a 3k density, which Teddy pointed out earlier might be possible.

Hence in above each scenario, he needs further movement of:
1. 3.5 month movement to 15th February 2008
2. 2.5 month movement to 15th January 2008
3. 5 months movement to 1st April 2008
4. 4 months movement to 1st March 2008

Please this is just some hypothetical worst case analysis, not arguing here about it should be 3k density, or 2.5 k or 2k density, or porting should be 2k or 4k and so on. It is just to drive home the point that movement is needed, only the length of the movement is to be thought about by CO. I thought a lot about posting this and was almost not posting, because I don’t want to be blamed for my PD is 11/8/2007 and am trying to prove that at least I will be current etc. Nothing is guaranteed, not even a week's move frankly speaking, until it actually happens, we cant read their minds. You can surely plug in your numbers and post what you think it can be.

I understand the concept of huge 140 backlog for EB1, EB2ROW, but CO has been comfortable to give approvals freely for Oct VB as well as Nov VB. So let's say they have used 6k + 2.5k = 8.5k visas already for EB2IC for FY 2012. So it does mean CO is banking on low demand from EB2 ROW and EB1 already. I don’t think based on pressure from USCIS that one day in this FY, they will resolve the huge backlog to some degree, hence don’t grab applications to build inventory that might be useful at end of FY in order to not waste visa numbers, CO will let this bulletin slip by.

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Good article. Makes sense. Retrogression is imminent without HR.3012. It's more a matter of when than if.

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Originally Posted by leo07

Good article. Makes sense. Retrogression is imminent without HR.3012. It's more a matter of when than if.

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If dates move too much then sure retrogression will happen..... As you said it more of when and also 'till what point backwards'...... I don't agree with CM that dates will retrogress till Sep 07 -nov 07. That does seem to be case based on data we know today.

My greencard was filed in Richmond VA by my consulting firm. At that time, they had a branch office from which they filed the greencard. 2 years later, i moved to another state on a different project. My company lost its primary vendorship in Richmond and hence shut down its Branch office there. I talked with Lawyer today and she confirmed that the greencard processing has to be filed again. So here are my questions:

1) Can I recapture my PD? how long do i have, to recapture my PD if the processing starts again.
2) Do I need to be in Richmond again to capture my PD? I mean the job again has to be in Richmond whether or not with the same consulting firm?
3) If I change job and go to any other state, can i still capture my PD?
4) If the new organization i join, files my greencard only after a year (which most of the organizations do) would i still be able to recapture my PD?
5) i am already in my 7th year of H1B, the last time i got an extension of 1 year based on my labor (I-140 came 2 days after filing H1B), so now if i change companies, would they be able to get 3 years extension for my H1B based on I-140 that was for Richmond Job?

Thanks in advance for any of your replies. I am really in a depressed state at this time. I would appreciate any word of consolation.

If your I-140 is approved, the PD is yours to keep regardless of anything, except if your I-140 gets approval gets revoked due to fraud. Do request your employer to give you a copy of the I-140 approval notice, so that you can attach with new I-140 and lawyer writes a cover letter to port the PD.

H1 extension beyond 6 years is possible, if you have filed for Labor or I-140 in new job or new GC process, and it's pending since more than 365 days - this will get you a one year extension, and if you have a approved I-140 in new job, this will get you a 3 year extension. In the first case, when lawyer requests extension, the start date of the extension can only be after the 365 days get over from the pending PERM or I-140 whichever is in pending state, so there might be brief period of when you are not valid for H1, I am not sure what is to be done for this boundary condition, a lawyer may advise.

Looking at your PD of 4/2009, mostly if you start soon in new job or new GC process, you should be able to avoid being a PWMB.

This is my understanding, I am not lawyer, always good to confirm with legal advice!

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Originally Posted by Nishant_imt

My greencard was filed in Richmond VA by my consulting firm. At that time, they had a branch office from which they filed the greencard. 2 years later, i moved to another state on a different project. My company lost its primary vendorship in Richmond and hence shut down its Branch office there. I talked with Lawyer today and she confirmed that the greencard processing has to be filed again. So here are my questions:

1) Can I recapture my PD? how long do i have, to recapture my PD if the processing starts again.
2) Do I need to be in Richmond again to capture my PD? I mean the job again has to be in Richmond whether or not with the same consulting firm?
3) If I change job and go to any other state, can i still capture my PD?
4) If the new organization i join, files my greencard only after a year (which most of the organizations do) would i still be able to recapture my PD?
5) i am already in my 7th year of H1B, the last time i got an extension of 1 year based on my labor (I-140 came 2 days after filing H1B), so now if i change companies, would they be able to get 3 years extension for my H1B based on I-140 that was for Richmond Job?

Thanks in advance for any of your replies. I am really in a depressed state at this time. I would appreciate any word of consolation.

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nishant,
Your earlier calculation looks pretty good to me. My gut feeling is that CO might be comfortable with a buffer higher than 5K; maybe in the range of 5K - 10K. This is just my hunch and there is no logic behind this. But, since ~8K EB2I/C visas have been approved in the first two months, a similar buffer might be reasonable for future. If the buffer is around 10K, there will be another 2 month's worth movement; so overall the movement might be anywhere between May'08 (5K buffer) to July'08 (10K buffer). I think we will still see some forward movement in the next couple of bulletins and retrogression will occur around March-April'12 or so when the dates might go back to Nov-Dec'07. Of course there will be forward movement again during the normal spillover season when the dates will progress gradually depending on demand/supply ratio.

Irrespective of what exactly pans out in future, so far, everything has been positive for EB2I/C guys this year. Very few people expected the dates to move forward in Sep and Oct bulletins and also the pre-adjudicated visas to be approved during that time. This was certainly a deviation from the earlier years. The PD movement for Dec bulletin has also exceeded the expectation of most of us. If the PDs move another few months to in and around the vicinity of mid-2008, the overall PD movement for the whole year will be certainly more than what we all had hoped for at the beginning.

Hi Nishant,

I think i am in a similar situation. My company (desi consulting) was based in location X filed my labor and I-140 and then got bought by another consulting company from based in location Y. My original company still exists but operates from location Y now. I still work very close to the original location X but not exact address. Location Y is pretty far from original location X.

Do I also need to start the GC process again. What primary reason lawyer gave for restarting the process.
Did you ask what are the chances of approval if you just file with current situation.
I thought once your I-140 is approved these things don't matter much.

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Originally Posted by Nishant_imt

My greencard was filed in Richmond VA by my consulting firm. At that time, they had a branch office from which they filed the greencard. 2 years later, i moved to another state on a different project. My company lost its primary vendorship in Richmond and hence shut down its Branch office there. I talked with Lawyer today and she confirmed that the greencard processing has to be filed again. So here are my questions:

1) Can I recapture my PD? how long do i have, to recapture my PD if the processing starts again.
2) Do I need to be in Richmond again to capture my PD? I mean the job again has to be in Richmond whether or not with the same consulting firm?
3) If I change job and go to any other state, can i still capture my PD?
4) If the new organization i join, files my greencard only after a year (which most of the organizations do) would i still be able to recapture my PD?
5) i am already in my 7th year of H1B, the last time i got an extension of 1 year based on my labor (I-140 came 2 days after filing H1B), so now if i change companies, would they be able to get 3 years extension for my H1B based on I-140 that was for Richmond Job?

Thanks in advance for any of your replies. I am really in a depressed state at this time. I would appreciate any word of consolation.

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Nishant, I think the simple assumption for demand = number of PERMs is actually EB2-IC 485s = Total PERMs for IC (including EB2 and EB3).
So the different factors EB2/Total PERM, I-140 approval rate and dependent ratio combine to be equal to 1. So you can't reduce the total PERM by taking only EB2 as that is already factored into the simplification. 2.5K is probably the more realistic density. But agree with the rest of your analysis though.
The open question now is if the 80% conversion from PERM to I-140 is enough or should it be lesser due to demand destruction and multiple PERMs (as being explored by Kanmani).

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

If we consider the simplistic assumption of demand = number of PERMs, the postulate that was being talked about on forum some pages back, I added the number of PERMs for EB2-EB3 India China from August 2007 to June 2008, and the average was 2466. But this includes EB3 also. If we say 75% of it is EB2, then 1850 EB2 PERMs. Even if you add a random 200 NIW, its around 2k density. With this simplification, the density goes way lower, and hence you can imagine the dates would extend much further from 1st May 2008, going well into the period for which NVC fee notices were sent, which was June 2008 latest what we know of.

The real density may lie somewhere in between the assumption of demand equals number of PERMS and the 2.5k.

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Originally Posted by dce.deepak

Hi Nishant,

I think i am in a similar situation. My company (desi consulting) was based in location X filed my labor and I-140 and then got bought by another consulting company from based in location Y. My original company still exists but operates from location Y now. I still work very close to the original location X but not exact address. Location Y is pretty far from original location X.

Do I also need to start the GC process again. What primary reason lawyer gave for restarting the process.
Did you ask what are the chances of approval if you just file with current situation.
I thought once your I-140 is approved these things don't matter much.

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Deepak,
PERM is position and location specific. If the employer move employee from the initial location/job attested in PERM labor to a new location/job then employer need to start PERM process for the new location/position.

In case of H1B, employer need file LCA for each location, when employee is moved from the original job location attested in the initial filing.

Having said that, since GC is for future employment, if the employer is offering the PERM job position in the place where it was initially applied, upon receiving GC, then no need to start new PERM process. Usally this is confirmed by your employer in the employment offer letter submitted with your i485.

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Originally Posted by GhostWriter

Nishant, I think the simple assumption for demand = number of PERMs is actually EB2-IC 485s = Total PERMs for IC (including EB2 and EB3).
So the different factors EB2/Total PERM, I-140 approval rate and dependent ratio combine to be equal to 1. So you can't reduce the total PERM by taking only EB2 as that is already factored into the simplification. 2.5K is probably the more realistic density. But agree with the rest of your analysis though.
The open question now is if the 80% conversion from PERM to I-140 is enough or should it be lesser due to demand destruction and multiple PERMs (as being explored by Kanmani).

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GhostWriter,
Looks like you still remember the discussion we had on this in the old thread. We beat this to death in last year's thread.

Nishant,
Either take Total PERM approved = EB2IC-485 demand, if not use EB2IC% from PERM, i140 denial ratio and dependent factor to derive EB2IC demand

I don't count porting in this calculations since my assumption is Porting-in = Porting-out (when you look at PERM numbers)

With the above assumption and the fact that PERM process is time consuming and expensive, you can ignore impact of multiple PERM cases on 485 demand.

Nishant

Sorry to hear that. IMHO you are secure on all questions you have raised except the last one. So don't worry on all of the first four - you are fine.

The last one is going to unfortunately throw a wrench in your GC process. Your H1 when it expires - you must have an approved labor + filed 140. If H1 expires before that then you must leave the country for one year and then come back on another H1.

Your GC could still continue since GC is independent of H1. But finding an employer who would continue with GC process when you can't work for him in US for 1 year is a challenge

Hope this clarifies .... I know it doesn't help. Sorry. But please do your homework and check with others and esp lawyers.

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Originally Posted by Nishant_imt

My greencard was filed in Richmond VA by my consulting firm. At that time, they had a branch office from which they filed the greencard. 2 years later, i moved to another state on a different project. My company lost its primary vendorship in Richmond and hence shut down its Branch office there. I talked with Lawyer today and she confirmed that the greencard processing has to be filed again. So here are my questions:

1) Can I recapture my PD? how long do i have, to recapture my PD if the processing starts again.
2) Do I need to be in Richmond again to capture my PD? I mean the job again has to be in Richmond whether or not with the same consulting firm?
3) If I change job and go to any other state, can i still capture my PD?
4) If the new organization i join, files my greencard only after a year (which most of the organizations do) would i still be able to recapture my PD?
5) i am already in my 7th year of H1B, the last time i got an extension of 1 year based on my labor (I-140 came 2 days after filing H1B), so now if i change companies, would they be able to get 3 years extension for my H1B based on I-140 that was for Richmond Job?

Thanks in advance for any of your replies. I am really in a depressed state at this time. I would appreciate any word of consolation.

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What perplexes me is..If you and I can do this calculation, would CO have not dont his homework?

He has visibility to the details(number of perms, EB3-Eb2 Split, porting etc) more than what we have and he has said "significant" fwd movement for another 2 months. He has kept up to his word so far.

Yes, remember it and always admire it whenever i look at PERM data. It was observed by you and is the best rule of thumb for this entire process.

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Originally Posted by veni001

GhostWriter,
Looks like you still remember the discussion we had on this in the old thread. We beat this to death in last year's thread.

Nishant,
Either take Total PERM approved = EB2IC-485 demand, if not use EB2IC% from PERM, i140 denial ratio and dependent factor to derive EB2IC demand

I don't count porting in this calculations since my assumption is Porting-in = Porting-out (when you look at PERM numbers)

With the above assumption and the fact that PERM process is time consuming and expensive, you can ignore impact of multiple PERM cases on 485 demand.

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So let's say I join a new company right now or my existing company restarts my gc process again, wouldn't theY be able to use the existing I140 to file for extension?

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Nishant

Sorry to hear that. IMHO you are secure on all questions you have raised except the last one. So don't worry on all of the first four - you are fine.

The last one is going to unfortunately throw a wrench in your GC process. Your H1 when it expires - you must have an approved labor + filed 140. If H1 expires before that then you must leave the country for one year and then come back on another H1.

Your GC could still continue since GC is independent of H1. But finding an employer who would continue with GC process when you can't work for him in US for 1 year is a challenge

Hope this clarifies .... I know it doesn't help. Sorry. But please do your homework and check with others and esp lawyers.

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Primary reason is that my consulting firm shut doors of its branch office in Richmond since the lost primary vendorship with the client and that's where I was place. So, even though the client has same position open, my company doesn't have an office in Richmond and they don't have that job for me. I am meeting my lawyer on Monday, will update you after that.

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Originally Posted by dce.deepak

Hi Nishant,

I think i am in a similar situation. My company (desi consulting) was based in location X filed my labor and I-140 and then got bought by another consulting company from based in location Y. My original company still exists but operates from location Y now. I still work very close to the original location X but not exact address. Location Y is pretty far from original location X.

Do I also need to start the GC process again. What primary reason lawyer gave for restarting the process.
Did you ask what are the chances of approval if you just file with current situation.
I thought once your I-140 is approved these things don't matter much.

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No and No - the reason being the labor is filed to a certain location and AC21 doesn't kick in until after 6 months since 485 is filed.

p.s. - a simple "thanks" go a long way when seeking help from others. Its surprising that educated people like you after living 7 years in this country forget such simple things.

pps - Veni and suninphx make a valid point. So I am assuming its the richmond office that sponsored your GC for richmond location as the base location and that is the office that is closed now.

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Originally Posted by Nishant_imt

So let's say I join a new company right now or my existing company restarts my gc process again, wouldn't theY be able to use the existing I140 to file for extension?

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Originally Posted by veni001

Deepak,
PERM is position and location specific. If the employer move employee from the initial location/job attested in PERM labor to a new location/job then employer need to start PERM process for the new location/position.

In case of H1B, employer need file LCA for each location, when employee is moved from the original job location attested in the initial filing.

Having said that, since GC is for future employment, if the employer is offering the PERM job position in the place where it was initially applied, upon receiving GC, then no need to start new PERM process. Usally this is confirmed by your employer in the employment offer letter submitted with your i485.

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Agree with Veni. This is how consulting (small and big) companies operate. They show company address as base location and employee can take assignments across country making employee location irrelevant. Your current location and client has nothing dot do with PERM position. Company address used for PERM matters most IMHO.

Haha... No no, don't be upset, a hearty "Thanks" was on its way , but I was still in conversation with you and the forum. Once I had all my questions answered, gratitude was to follow. Any ways, thanks a million for you prompt reply and suggestions.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

No and No - the reason being the labor is filed to a certain location and AC21 doesn't kick in until after 6 months since 485 is filed.

p.s. - a simple "thanks" go a long way when seeking help from others. Its surprising that educated people like you after living 7 years in this country forget such simple things.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Nishant

Sorry to hear that. IMHO you are secure on all questions you have raised except the last one. So don't worry on all of the first four - you are fine.

The last one is going to unfortunately throw a wrench in your GC process. Your H1 when it expires - you must have an approved labor + filed 140. If H1 expires before that then you must leave the country for one year and then come back on another H1.

Your GC could still continue since GC is independent of H1. But finding an employer who would continue with GC process when you can't work for him in US for 1 year is a
challenge
Hope this clarifies .... I know it doesn't help. Sorry. But please do your homework and check with others and esp lawyers.

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Nishant,
My understanding of this is different. I had asked my company lawyers this exact thing 2 years ago. I had an approved I 140 from company x and then moved to company y. I asked the company y lawyers if the existing I140 from company x can be used for 3 year extensions of H1 and her answer was "we have done it before". Please note I personally never did it because I got my new I 140 before I needed an H1 extension, but you may want to ask a lawyer this.

No worries. All the best!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Nishant_imt

Haha... No no, don't be upset, a hearty "Thanks" was on its way , but I was still in conversation with you and the forum. Once I had all my questions answered, gratitude was to follow. Any ways, thanks a million for you prompt reply and suggestions.

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Thanks nishant2200, Q, GClongwait, and everyone. I guess, I would be more clear after talking to my lawyer, but because of you guys, I have right questions to ask of her. Keep up the great job you do on this forum.

Nishant,

My company also moved to a different location and shut down its office in perm location but I continue to work with a different client near the perm location. As Veni mentioned that GC is for future I think if we can get a employment letter during 485 which says that the location mentioned on perm (same geographical area) will be the location then it probably will work.
Its always good to check with lawyer. I will also try to get in touch with some lawyer and update you.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

Now that we are fine with 2.5k density as max, and 3k porting as max, and also the idea that CO wants 30k + buffer, we can redo the numbers done earlier.

Oct VB, 15th april to 15th july 2007 caused 5400 reduction in demand data, 2.5k still left as preadjudicated ready to go.

Nov VB, 15th july 2007 to Nov 1st : 8.5k incoming, includes 2.5k PWMB

I am adding 1000 more who were leftovers in late 2006 and early-mid 2007, who were not in demand data for Oct VB, due to various reasons like RFE or just slipped through the cracks, or did not show up in demand data, etc.

Also he started the year with around 8k ready to go, and he was comfortable consuming it with QSP. So let's assume he would be ready to have 5k buffer at least to begin the next FY 2013.

Total so far: 5400 + 2500 + 1000 + 8500= 17,400 let’s consider 17.5k

Going by past two years trend, CO would want 30k minimum, even not considering buffer. Lets consider 5k buffer as optional. This is now confirmed looking at aggressive movement.

To grab hence:
14.5k with 5k buffer considered and 3k porting

Considering 2.5k max density, he needs further movement of 5.8 months i.e. 6 months

Now this is until the November VB. In Nov VB he already moved 4.5 months. The demand data can be ignored, it's negligible. Hence, for 30k + 5k buffer, he needs to move 1.5 months more, that will take him to 1st May 2008.

If we consider the simplistic assumption of demand = number of PERMs, the postulate that was being talked about on forum some pages back, I added the number of PERMs for EB2-EB3 India China from August 2007 to June 2008, and the average was 2466. But this includes EB3 also. If we say 75% of it is EB2, then 1850 EB2 PERMs. Even if you add a random 200 NIW, its around 2k density. With this simplification, the density goes way lower, and hence you can imagine the dates would extend much further from 1st May 2008, going well into the period for which NVC fee notices were sent, which was June 2008 latest what we know of.

The real density may lie somewhere in between the assumption of demand equals number of PERMS and the 2.5k.

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The 2.5K per month figure also includes porting baked in. The perm average is 2200 per month. Assuming roughly 3K porting I approximated the monthly number to 2500 just to simplify. Since porting also comes by gradually its probably ok to have it in the mix not ideal though.

So currently the trend is consumption = 8.5K, Intake 8 months = 2.5 * 8 = 20K. So the total is still less than 30K. So there appear to be strong chances of further forward movement by 2 - 4 months (5-10K buffer). Movement will not happen if CO is expecting less than 30K SOFAD or he wants to keep the buffer as 0. I would rate the chances of movement in the next bulletin as 50-50. It might be that the target is to match the NVC notices which came to people as far as June 2008.

mygc,
can you not ask your Lawyer for just the A#? that is what i did while i was getting my i693 and she provided this info over email.

regards

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mygctracker

Gurus,

I'm current from Dec 1st and currently in the process of filling Forms. I don't have copy of my approved I-140 (employer doesn't share). Now while filling I-485 et all forms, can the A# Box be left as BLANK? Any problems if left BLANK?

Thanks.

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thanks deepak , i am also going to get in touch with my lawyer on Monday. in the mean while keep me updated if you learn anything new.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by dce.deepak

Nishant,

My company also moved to a different location and shut down its office in perm location but I continue to work with a different client near the perm location. As Veni mentioned that GC is for future I think if we can get a employment letter during 485 which says that the location mentioned on perm (same geographical area) will be the location then it probably will work.
Its always good to check with lawyer. I will also try to get in touch with some lawyer and update you.

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Friends many of you have questions on the current trend. Here are my thoughts. Thanks to Veni & Spec for the perm data compilation and to Nishant2200, Suninphx, Kd2008, Kanmani and most importantly tonyromo for all their thoughts and calculations The summary below is a product of collective efforts..
- The current consumption is 8.5K; this is based on the fact that the October demand data showed 8.5K and looks like all preadjudicated cases from Jul 2007 are approved now. The demand data came down to 2.5K in Nov, interestingly China was higher than India which is also fine because China had higher filing by NIW in Jul 2007 than India.
- Porting I believe is just 3K per annum in fact the effective reduction in the EB3 inventory shows even less. The perm computations suggest that they may result in ~ 2200 EB2 I485's per month. So lets approximate this to 2500 per month. With 8 months of intake from Jul 15 to Mar 15 the intake this far has been 20K.
- This means CO is still short of the 30K mark which we believe is last year’s SOFAD. There will be no movement in the next bulletin only if they intend to have a 0 buffer or expect less than 30K SOFAD.
- I believe there is a very realistic chance of another forward movement in the next VB anywhere from 2-4 months based on 5-10K additional intake.
- Some of you have questions when I will get my GC; I believe realistically it should take 3 months for the batch that filed in Oct 2011. For the rest I believe the dates will certainly have to be retrogressed for orderly approval by PD. We would start to see the approvals for the Oct 2011 batch by Dec 2011.
I would encourage everyone to freely post their observations, findings and experiences which could help all of us to know what is happening, especially approvals.

Friends many of you are concerned about the location on the perm. I believe that most full time companies would mention the location as your current location at that time while most consulting companies would mention it as their headquarter. I believe what is important is that that location is not closed at the time of adjudication.

So in case you work for a consulting company doesn’t worry too much about your current location. GC is more for future employment. The location is just for salary determination purpose primarily. While adjudicating the case USCIS is more interested in checking if the salary requirement is met also they would know of all the locations where you have lived and worked via the G325A form. If you do not work in the geographical area defined by the labor LCA you may likely be a candidate for a EVL RFE, most current applicants a EVL RFE does not make much sense as most cases will see approval far sooner that Jul 2007 filers assuming the EVL is submitted with the application.

So in case one is still working in the GC LCA area its a slightly better situation at best. I believe the adjudication methodology is more about proving one as innocent rather than they proving you guilty. So as long as all red flags can be avoided the case may just get approved faster. It is individual luck and experience at best. In my own case when my GC was filed I worked in another state but now back to my company headquarter area which is also the perm location.

Thanks Teddy, Veni, Q for taking time to reply..

Nishant,
you can read lot more about perm process details and prevailing wage here http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/faqsanswers.cfm
What I have understood till now is exactly what Teddy said above. PERM location is mainly for prevailing wage determination so if you are going to work at the same location (geographical area) after GC then it should be fine.
You can get details about prevailing wage and area here http://icert.doleta.gov/index.cfm?ev...neral.dspLogin

There is also a murthy chat session on monday. I am going to ask her this question during that session.

Veni, ghostwriter, thanks for correcting. I realized my mistake in the number of PERMs equalling 485 last night, but was unable to login and post. Seems my wifi router needed a reset.

Lets try to venture into some long term projection, although I agree its quite risk prone to do so!

So basically, the max density comes out to be 2.5k with that assumption or elsewise. Teddy has put an excellent post above, in which he is baking the porting into 2.5k. The difference in inventories pointed out by me showed 2k porting, but there was a point made about some cases added to local office, and hence 3k (I personally didn't completely understand this reason). Now let's say since even EB3 folks post july 2007 will port to EB2, few of them will, I guess we can stick with 3k max porting instead of 2k.

I think due to basic reasoning that it is CO, whose office intimates the NVC about sending fee notices, the dates moving to June 2008, the last we all know of about fee notices, has an excellent chance in the next VB or in two parts in next and next to next VB. I personally think next VB would be the kill shot, and it should take to 1st July 2008. Anything beyond that, is possible, but at this point, I feel I cannot say will happen for sure, as much as I can say for 1st July 2008.

FY 2012 has indeed been a turning point for lifecycle of EB2IC. I don't think anyone anticipated such early strikes by CO. Q was to his credit, the only person, so confidently saying that by March 2012, dates will move to March 2008 at least.

Suppose dates stop max around 1st July 2008 this FY, and due to eventual backlog level going back to 15k instead of current 25k for EB1, EB2ROW, SOFAD is around 24k, because new incoming reduces a bit avoiding most bad impact of backlog reduction. Then Folks in December 2007 to January 2008 would be borderline on GC issuance for FY 2012.

I have seen that PERMs get thinner in mid 2008 to beginning 2009, and even thinner in 2009 to mid 2010.
July 2008 to December 2008 , average PERM = 2068, 6 months 12.5k
January 2009 to June 2010, average PERM = 1644, 18 months 29.5k

So even FY 2013 will have great chance to move at least until December 2008 even considering CO has Jan 2008 to June 2008 in his kitty already, to make for next 25k + buffer.

If FY 2014, Eb1 EB2 ROW demand remains same, we assume backlog reduction already taken place by now, next move for SOFAD and buffer, should take you to June 2010.

I think regardless of how much buffer CO has left, he will magically find ways to circumvent problems, and do movements in time.

Notice that if current situations remain same, then wait time of EB2IC to apply is coming down from 5 years to 4 years to almost 3.x years in coming and current FYs.

Ok guys. I have interesting observation to share. Credit to one of my team member.

So after dates moved in this VB obviously there was lot of excitement at workplace. Then discussion came to individual PDs. And interestingly in my team there are only 10% people with PD of 2008. Around 40% are 2007 or earlier and remaining 55% are 2009 onwards. So my question to you guys is what your team composition looks like in terms of PD mix?

PS: It's just a fun observation with no attempt to draw conclusions. At the same time I am curious to know what other Forum members team composition looks like? May be ..just may be it will present a different angle.

Also guys, in the perm application section H there is a question (#17), which says:
"does the job require the alien to live on the employer's address? yes, no"

I think if the answer is no, most likely there shouldn't be any problem

Quote:

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Friends many of you are concerned about the location on the perm. I believe that most full time companies would mention the location as your current location at that time while most consulting companies would mention it as their headquarter. I believe what is important is that that location is not closed at the time of adjudication.

So in case you work for a consulting company doesn’t worry too much about your current location. GC is more for future employment. The location is just for salary determination purpose primarily. While adjudicating the case USCIS is more interested in checking if the salary requirement is met also they would know of all the locations where you have lived and worked via the G325A form. If you do not work in the geographical area defined by the labor LCA you may likely be a candidate for a EVL RFE, most current applicants a EVL RFE does not make much sense as most cases will see approval far sooner that Jul 2007 filers assuming the EVL is submitted with the application.

So in case one is still working in the GC LCA area its a slightly better situation at best. I believe the adjudication methodology is more about proving one as innocent rather than they proving you guilty. So as long as all red flags can be avoided the case may just get approved faster. It is individual luck and experience at best. In my own case when my GC was filed I worked in another state but now back to my company headquarter area which is also the perm location.

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