EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

For the demand to level off to normal levels, the percentage of pending I-485 applications filed in Oct/Nov should be close to 15%. As of the last weekend, it was roughly 25% pending. The number of approvals for quarter I and quarter II in trackitt is very close. My thinking from that is DoS has issued maximum number of visas in first two quarters. The number of approvals in trackitt have reduced in April, but I dont think it is because of lack of demand, considering 25% is pending from October and November applications.

if number of new applicants dropped from Jan - June, there may be some impact. So far there have been drops, but not huge. The number of new applications is less than number of approvals.

it is too early to conclude whether the demand for EB2-WW will be closer 36K or as high as 42 K. Somewhere in between is where I stand now.
I know one cannot completely rely on trackitt, but trackitt data has always provided some good early trends.

All that we know from CO is, In Feb, he was not sure whether to impose a cutoff date for EB2-WW. My personal interpretation is , it may be more than 35K in his mind, if it is aprox one month of pending demand at year end, he can manage with minor retrogression. Dont shoot me for that statement, but it is my personal interpretation. A few days later, every calculation changed with FB SO.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000

Look at the EB2 ROW approvals so far this month - 27. Last month 76. Average per month for the last few years is 80. theres one week left this month so even at a max it will end at around 40 which is half - hence demand has collapsed. Also look at year 2009. Till April they had 444 approvals ended the year at around 700. But in reality that year EB2 ROW did not even use its allocation. So to fully rely on trackitt trends is also not correct. I still think CO would have officially mentioned something abt Eb2 row and WW had demand been what you are saying it is. We will see. May bulletin is not far off

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Spectator

Sorry to disagree, but those figures are not correct. At least not as I count them.

So far this month is 37 for all EB2-ROW. (28 EB2 + 4 NIW + 4 Indian nationality + 1 user Unknown Country but is actually ROW). We are in working day 16 of 22 in April, so it could be 51 for the month.

FY2013 October 2012 to March 2013 had an average of 77.

For FY2012 October 2011 to June 2012 the average was 49.

For FY2011 the average was 45.

---

i am counting only EB2 ROW with EB2 ROW chargeability. Last month was 76. Last year April - May was ~80. Right now trending to 27. Also dont you think CO would have had a word about EB2ROW if demand was trending to 43000. I think at the max EB2 WW will reach 39000.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by MATT2012

For the demand to level off to normal levels, the percentage of pending I-485 applications filed in Oct/Nov should be close to 15%. As of the last weekend, it was roughly 25% pending. The number of approvals for quarter I and quarter II in trackitt is very close. My thinking from that is DoS has issued maximum number of visas in first two quarters. The number of approvals in trackitt have reduced in April, but I dont think it is because of lack of demand, considering 25% is pending from October and November applications.

if number of new applicants dropped from Jan - June, there may be some impact. So far there have been drops, but not huge. The number of new applications is less than number of approvals.

it is too early to conclude whether the demand for EB2-WW will be closer 36K or as high as 42 K. Somewhere in between is where I stand now.
I know one cannot completely rely on trackitt, but trackitt data has always provided some good early trends.

All that we know from CO is, In Feb, he was not sure whether to impose a cutoff date for EB2-WW. My personal interpretation is , it may be more than 35K in his mind, if it is aprox one month of pending demand at year end, he can manage with minor retrogression. Dont shoot me for that statement, but it is my personal interpretation. A few days later, every calculation changed with FB SO.

---

Matt - What we have heard about from CO abt EB2 WW retrogression was throught Cilawgroup website. theres no official wod from CO like he had abt EB5 china in a visa bulletin. Also only cilaw says CO is thinking about EB2 WW retrogression. No other lawyer website says that. check murthy or any other website. If demand for EB2 WW was so high as to reach 43000 CO surely would have mentioned it in february that he will have to have a cutoff at some point

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000

i am counting only EB2 ROW with EB2 ROW chargeability. Last month was 76. Last year April - May was ~80. Right now trending to 27. Also dont you think CO would have had a word about EB2ROW if demand was trending to 43000. I think at the max EB2 WW will reach 39000.

---

We are counting apples and oranges.

Last month was 63. Last April was 46 and last May was 50, as I count approvals for EB2-ROW (including NIW).

You cant just count EB2, because NIW also use visas (and rather a lot in ROW - nearly 20%).

I don't know where you are getting 76 for March 2013 from for only EB2-ROW (excluding NIW). A Trackitt query (of Category - EB2, Chargability - ROW, I-485 Approval - March 2013 to March 2013, Applicant - Primary, I-485 Status - Approved) gives a figure of 51.

Generally, approvals aren't as high in September, so a completely prorated figure is slightly unfair (I take that into account in my calculations).

I don't think the EB2-WW figure will be as high as 43k, but will probably be at least 40k, unless approvals start dropping off dramatically.

I am not in the 43K thought process. From what I read from his earlier postings, Spec is also not. I thought it was a general interpretation of trackitt data, when he quoted the high figure.

I dont think Cilawgroup would have put something in their website something, CO did not mention. Yes to your point if WW demand was that high, he normally would have mentioned in VB.

Inventory data will come out soon. We could see some trends there..

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000

Matt - What we have heard about from CO abt EB2 WW retrogression was throught Cilawgroup website. theres no official wod from CO like he had abt EB5 china in a visa bulletin. Also only cilaw says CO is thinking about EB2 WW retrogression. No other lawyer website says that. check murthy or any other website. If demand for EB2 WW was so high as to reach 43000 CO surely would have mentioned it in february that he will have to have a cutoff at some point

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by MATT2012

I am not in the 43K thought process. I cannot answer for Spec, but from what I read from his earlier postings he is also not. I thought he was just interpreting trackitt data, when he quoted the high figure. I think his general thought line is closer to 39K.

Spec: Correct me if I am wrong?

I dont think Cilawgroup would have put something in their website something, CO did not mention. Yes to your point if WW demand was that high, he normally would have mentioned in VB.

Inventory data will come out soon. We could see some trends there..

---

Matt,

Unless EB2-I are overallocated visas, there is no question of EB2-WW being retrogressed. They are entitled to 86% of any Fall Down, which is more than enough to cover any number they could reach. If EB2-WW retrogress, then EB2-I must be made Unavailable.

I said in my last post that I am working on nearer 39-40k for various reasons, so you are correct. I have to be cognizant that this can change. Currently, the signs are more for an upward movement than a downward one. 39-40k needs lower monthly approvals from EB2-WW than have been seen in any month to date. This will be come clearer as the months progress.

The Inventory data isn't that useful for EB2-WW, or any other group that is Current. It never shows anything close to the full demand, since it doesn't show cases in progress where the I-140 has not yet been approved. If the I-485 is approved shortly after I-140 approval, that will never show either.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Spectator

Matt,

The Inventory data isn't that useful for EB2-WW, or any other group that is Current. It never shows anything close to the full demand, since it doesn't show cases in progress where the I-140 has not yet been approved. If the I-485 is approved shortly after I-140 approval, that will never show either.

---

Thanks Spec, I was just looking for data from late 2011 and first half of 2012 , for EB2-WW in inventory. it does'nt give us depth of information as you said, but just an overall trend.

I am not sure whether you noticed or not, In inventory data of Jan - they have EB2-ROW data until December. How is this possible, Is this approved NIW applications, or USICS just stacking data? you can notice the same trend in October inventory also, data until preceeding month is present. Any Clues??

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by MATT2012

Thanks Spec, I was just looking for data from late 2011 and first half of 2012 , for EB2-WW in inventory. it does'nt give us depth of information as you said, but just an overall trend.

I am not sure whether you noticed or not, In inventory data of Jan - they have EB2-ROW data until December. How is this possible, Is this approved NIW applications, or USICS just stacking data? you can notice the same trend in October inventory also, data until preceeding month is present. Any Clues??

---

I haven't looked, but my guess is that the December cases are concurrently filed, where the I-140 was PP.

I've never seen any data even about the overall % that PP, yet alone by Category or Country.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Spectator

Matt,

Unless EB2-I are overallocated visas, there is no question of EB2-WW being retrogressed. They are entitled to 86% of any Fall Down, which is more than enough to cover any number they could reach. If EB2-WW retrogress, then EB2-I must be made Unavailable.

I said in my last post that I am working on nearer 39-40k for various reasons, so you are correct. I have to be cognizant that this can change. Currently, the signs are more for an upward movement than a downward one. 39-40k needs lower monthly approvals from EB2-WW than have been seen in any month to date. This will be come clearer as the months progress.

The Inventory data isn't that useful for EB2-WW, or any other group that is Current. It never shows anything close to the full demand, since it doesn't show cases in progress where the I-140 has not yet been approved. If the I-485 is approved shortly after I-140 approval, that will never show either.

---

In Trackiit - I made the following query -

Nationality: ROW
Country of Chargeability: ROW
Category - EB2
Applicant type : All
I 485 status - approved
I-485 Approval/Denial Date:April 2011 - May 2011 - 106 case; :April 2012 - May 2012 - 70 cases; :April 2013 - May 2013 - 28 cases so far

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000

In Trackiit - I made the following query -

Nationality: ROW
Country of Chargeability: ROW
Category - EB2
Applicant type : All
I 485 status - approved
I-485 Approval/Denial Date:April 2011 - May 2011 - 106 case; :April 2012 - May 2012 - 70 cases; :April 2013 - May 2013 - 28 cases so far

---

a) You need to set Nationality to All. You will then pick up a further 6 Indian Nationality but ROW Chargability cases, giving a total of 34 for your query for April-May 2013.

b) Why are you specifying 2 month periods?

e.g. April 2012 - May 2012 is April 1, 2012 to May 31,2012

Is this why you are coming up with such high figures?

c) I only count Primary approvals because the number of Dependents in Trackitt bears no resemblance to the real world (about 1:1). I then count Dependents through the ratio applied to the Trackitt figures.

If you do that, you will get 32 approvals for your query for April 2013 to April 2013.

Unless you count NIW, you are not getting a complete picture. For instance, there are 4 NIW in April to date. There were 14 in March.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Spectator

a) You need to set Nationality to All. You will then pick up a further 6 Indian Nationality but ROW Chargability cases, giving a total of 34 for your query for April-May 2013.

b) Why are you specifying 2 month periods?

e.g. April 2012 - May 2012 is April 1, 2012 to May 31,2012

Is this why you are coming up with such high figures?

c) I only count Primary approvals because the number of Dependents in Trackitt bears no resemblance to the real world (about 1:1). I then count Dependents through the ratio applied to the Trackitt figures.

If you do that, you will get 32 approvals for your query for April 2013 to April 2013.

Unless you count NIW, you are not getting a complete picture. For instance, there are 4 NIW in April to date. There were 14 in March.

---

So i changed to one month and I am keeping NIW out for now. i compared past years and demand has always been uneven. example in 2011 in July or august demand spiked to the 70s. This year i agree demand has been spiking early this year. But if you look at march and now this month demand is surely going down. This month is on track to be one of the lowest. Lets hope it continues.

On a side note - I keep hearing abt Kazarian memo. Can you briefly tell me what it is and how is affects EB1 processing. And does it impact EB1 even now

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000

On a side note - I keep hearing abt Kazarian memo. Can you briefly tell me what it is and how is affects EB1 processing. And does it impact EB1 even now

---

The Kazarian memo added an additional proof/burden of demonstrating a sustained national/ international acclaim and also to demonstrate achievements that have been recognized in the field of expertise.

In essence, there is additional scrutiny in EB1'a' and EB1'b' applications. Yes it impacts EB1processing even now, but I have not analyzed data deep enough to quantify the impact.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000

On a side note - I keep hearing abt Kazarian memo. Can you briefly tell me what it is and how is affects EB1 processing. And does it impact EB1 even now

---

Yes it does. If you carefully read (on trackitt or mitbbs) through the lamentations of the numerous EB1's whose I-140 has been rejected, you can easily realize the impact the memo. Despite the applicants' claim that they fulfill the minimum 3 requirements to qualify in Eb1A and 2 requirements in Eb1B, the IO will in fact cite the Kazarian memo as reason for the rejection. The IO will often time judge that the applicant is not above par compared to his peers in the field.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000

On a side note - I keep hearing abt Kazarian memo. Can you briefly tell me what it is and how is affects EB1 processing. And does it impact EB1 even now

---

Basically, pre-Kazarian, USCIS adjudicated each piece of evidence submitted to see if it qualified as Extraordinary or Outstanding as appropriate. If there were 3 or 2 pieces of evidence that met this test (as appropriate, then then the cases could be approved. If insufficient categories of evidence met this test, then the case was denied.

What the Kazarian judgement said was that USCIS should first count whether enough different pieces of evidence had been submitted (regardless of the quality) and than make a Final Merits Determination as to whether the totality of the evidence inticated the person was Extraordinary or Outstanding as appropriate.

This is how USCIS put it in the Memo about Evaluation of Evidence Submitted in EB1A & EB1B I-140 cases.

Quote:

---

In 2010, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit (Ninth Circuit) reviewed the Administrative Appeals Office’s (AAO) dismissal of a petitioner’s appeal of a denial of a petition filed under 203(b)(1)(A) of the INA. Kazarian v. USCIS, 596 F.3d 1115 (9^th Cir. 2010).

Although affirming the decision, the Ninth Circuit found that the AAO erred in its evaluation of the initial evidence submitted with the petition pursuant to 8 CFR 204.5(h)(3). Specifically, the Ninth Circuit concluded that while USCIS may have raised legitimate concerns about the significance of the evidence submitted, those concerns should have been raised in a subsequent “final merits determination” of whether the petitioner has the requisite extraordinary ability. Id. at 1122. The Ninth Circuit further stated that the concerns were “not relevant to the antecedent procedural question of whether the petitioner has provided at least three types of evidence.” Id. at 1121.

USCIS agrees with the Kazarian court’s two-part adjudicative approach to evaluating evidence submitted in connection with petitions for aliens of extraordinary ability: (1) Determine whether the petitioner or self-petitioner has submitted the required evidence that meets the parameters for each type of evidence listed at 8 CFR 204.5(h)(3); and (2) Determine whether the evidence submitted is sufficient to demonstrate that the beneficiary or self-petitioner meets the required high level of expertise for the extraordinary ability immigrant classification during a final merits determination. By contrast, the approach taken by USCIS officers in Kazarian collapsed these two parts and evaluated the evidence at the beginning stage of the adjudicative process, with each type of evidence being evaluated individually to determine whether the self-petitioner was extraordinary.

The two-part adjudicative approach to evaluating evidence described in Kazarian simplifies the adjudicative process by eliminating piecemeal consideration of extraordinary ability and shifting the analysis of overall extraordinary ability to the end of the adjudicative process when a determination on the entire petition is made (the final merits determination). Therefore, under this approach, an objective evaluation of the initial evidence listed at 8 CFR 204.5(h)(3) will continue as before; what changes is when the determination of extraordinary ability occurs in the adjudicative process. USCIS believes that this approach will lead to decisions that more clearly explain how evidence was considered, the basis for the overall determination of eligibility (or lack thereof), and greater consistency in decisions on petitions for aliens with extraordinary ability.

This approach is equally applicable to the evaluation of evidence in the adjudication of petitions for outstanding professors or researchers and aliens of exceptional ability. Similar evidentiary requirements and qualitative analyses apply to these types of petitions. Therefore, a similar adjudication process also should apply.

---

The Kazarian case and all the subsequent retraining and review of decisions led to extremely low approvals for EB1 in FY2011.

Potentially, EB1 approvals could have been higher than normal in FY2012 as a result, but no one knows for sure.

This year, FY2013, is the first "normal" year after Kazarian. It should give us an idea of what normal actually looks like post-Kazarian.

The USCIS Dashboard has been updated with the February 2013 figures.

Based on the data which USCIS published, number of I140 and 485 are decreasing slowly.

I feel if in EB1C there is no abuse then we will definitely see some spillover from EB1. So far does anybody know how many of the EB1s are in the EB1-C category?

I have been following this forum for a while especially after Breaking news from spec who in fact is better than anyone in predictions, I have read that CO has mentioned that EB1, 2row, 4, 5 . will be current without considering teh FB spillover. so I am assuming that they are not going to consume any spillover and rather might give away small spillovers from their own quota.
Is it fair to say that EB2I will get atleast 12K spillover, this is very simplstic approach and I dont want to crunch the numbers again as my understanding of all the numbers are from spec himself.
for many who are worried abt EB2ROW crossing 40K, dont you think even before FB spillover CO might have alerted of possible retrogression of EB2ROW in march bulletin if their usage was going to be more than 40K.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by indiani

I have been following this forum for a while especially after Breaking news from spec who in fact is better than anyone in predictions, I have read that CO has mentioned that EB1, 2row, 4, 5 . will be current without considering teh FB spillover. so I am assuming that they are not going to consume any spillover and rather might give away small spillovers from their own quota.
Is it fair to say that EB2I will get atleast 12K spillover, this is very simplstic approach and I dont want to crunch the numbers again as my understanding of all the numbers are from spec himself.
for many who are worried abt EB2ROW crossing 40K, dont you think even before FB spillover CO might have alerted of possible retrogression of EB2ROW in march bulletin if their usage was going to be more than 40K.

---

welcome indiani. Spec is indeed one of the best if not the best at calculations. If you look at the first page, all the gurus update their predictions and assumptions as new info comes in. There is consensus that EB2IC will get between 15K- to 20K spillover incl their own allocation.

Spec and Q,

Does USCIS give a breakdown of the EB1 visas granted so far this Oct 2012 - Sept 2013. That way we might be able to see how many EB1C (Not China rather category C) were issued. I have a strong feeling that EB1A/B will never use its allocated quota esp with K Memo.

druvraj - USCIS doesn't provide ongoing monthly visa statistics. They only provide year end statistics of visas issued (which to their credit is quite elaborate -- but only partially useful for forecasting).

As per your observation about K memo and EB1 category - you are right. Actually its EB1C category that is driving overall EB1 demand up. EB1A/B would drive it up only marginally if at all. It was feared that EB1A/B would create a backlog because of K memo. But my hunch is - instead of creating a backlog - the ineligible EB1A/B are outright being rejected at 140 level. It is only a hunch - I don't have data for it.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by druvraj

Spec and Q,

Does USCIS give a breakdown of the EB1 visas granted so far this Oct 2012 - Sept 2013. That way we might be able to see how many EB1C (Not China rather category C) were issued. I have a strong feeling that EB1A/B will never use its allocated quota esp with K Memo.

---

Hi,
Can some one please explain why EB3-I demand data numbers are reducing at faster rate (4275 in 7 months)? Are preadjudicated numbers for EB2I is causing this reduction in EB3I? April 2007 was current for EB2I in Sep 2011 and was continued to be available till April 2012.

Difference in Nov 12 and May 13 Demand data
2012 47,125 42,850 -------- 4275
2007 43,500 39,375 -------- 4125
2006 33,700 30,000 -------- 3700
2005 25,650 22,300 -------- 3350
2004 13,275 10,775 -------- 2500
2003 2,300 650 -------- 1650

In 7 months EB3-I numbers are reduced by 1650 for pre Jan 1st 2003. This may be regular quota. But what about extra 2500+ reduction of EB3I in other FYs.

June 2011 demand data had 57,450 pending I-485 and now it has gone down to 42,850 in May 2013. That means decrease of 14700 in 2 years.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by vizcard

welcome indiani. Spec is indeed one of the best if not the best at calculations. If you look at the first page, all the gurus update their predictions and assumptions as new info comes in. There is consensus that EB2IC will get between 15K- to 20K spillover incl their own allocation.

---

All,

Does prediction updated on page 1 by number of experts still holds true?

Thanks,

Hi Erikbond,
it could very well be porting. But none of us can confirm, as USICS has so far not given any communication about pre-adjudicating applications for porters when dates are not current. There are similar increases in EB2I also, depending upon how you look at the data. if USICS have started pre-adjudicating porting applications and demand data is indeed reflecting the same, it is good news. As our calculations have blocked large numbers of visas for porters for the whole year.

I would like to hear thoughts of other senior members too, Spec, Q, Viz etc...Any thoughts on erikbond's observation?

Matt

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by erikbond101

Hi,
Can some one please explain why EB3-I demand data numbers are reducing at faster rate (4275 in 7 months)? Are preadjudicated numbers for EB2I is causing this reduction in EB3I? April 2007 was current for EB2I in Sep 2011 and was continued to be available till April 2012.

Difference in Nov 12 and May 13 Demand data
2012 47,125 42,850 -------- 4275
2007 43,500 39,375 -------- 4125
2006 33,700 30,000 -------- 3700
2005 25,650 22,300 -------- 3350
2004 13,275 10,775 -------- 2500
2003 2,300 650 -------- 1650

In 7 months EB3-I numbers are reduced by 1650 for pre Jan 1st 2003. This may be regular quota. But what about extra 2500+ reduction of EB3I in other FYs.

June 2011 demand data had 57,450 pending I-485 and now it has gone down to 42,850 in May 2013. That means decrease of 14700 in 2 years.

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by MATT2012

Hi Erikbond,
it could very well be porting. But none of us can confirm, as USICS has so far not given any communication about pre-adjudicating applications for porters when dates are not current. There are similar increases in EB2I also, depending upon how you look at the data. if USICS have started pre-adjudicating porting applications and demand data is indeed reflecting the same, it is good news. As our calculations have blocked large numbers of visa for porters for the whole year.

I would like to hear views of other senior members too, Spec, Q, Viz etc...Any thoughts on erikbond's observation?

Matt

---

Matt
Don't include me in the same sentence as Q and Spec when it comes to calculations and stuff...I ride their coattails and just factor in my own assumptions based on their calculations.

The reduction up to 2007 (presumably July 2007) is 4125. You have to assume that most if not all of that is porting. There could be some drop outs but it wouldn't be material to calculations. I don't really understand the 2007-2012 demand since they were not current at any point.