Can't say that because the mix of EB2/3 is changing in favor of EB2. It is not known exactly how mcuh it shifted between 06-07.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
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Can't say that because the mix of EB2/3 is changing in favor of EB2. It is not known exactly how mcuh it shifted between 06-07.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
Q - typically what annual salary would you use in a spreadsheet to determine eb2 / eb3 (obviously guestimate).
I looked at 2009 PERM data just for India.
The EB2 % is as follows:
Min 75,000: 52%
Min 70,000: 63%
Min 65,000: 70%
Min 60,000: 80%
Kanmani,Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
We don't know that the final number for 2006 was 19k.
The first Inventory was only published in August 2009.
We only know that 19k EB2-I I-485 were remaining at that time, but not the initial total.
By that time, 2006 PD cases could have been approved in July 2007 and some more in July-September 2008 when the Cut Off Date was 01JUN06. Trackitt data suggests none were approved in July 2007 (which is probably to be expected).
The best estimate for 2007 is that there are a further 16k possible EB2-I applications still to be filed by people who have never had a chance to do so, because the underlying PERM for the Primary applicant had not been Certified by the end of July 2007.
I just seen this post in trackit
'Not to disappoint all of you guys, but speaking to couple of friends who are being processed under EB2 currently. They heard from there lawyers that DOS is planning to slow up things when they hit EB2 I for 2007 dates. This was based on the USCIS feed back to the attorney's. I don't have any kind of proof this, but just from a friend who just got off with the attorney's on his GC process.
Did any one hear anything about this or prob. if you can talk to your attorney's they might have some info ?'.
I have a question is DOS or USCIS give their planning to Attorney in advance??
spec nice as always. does your 16k 2006 eb2 exclude row eb2? because they r already processed long back.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
mpurna, that actually is a very good news. It means the dates will certainly see Jan 2007. Our prediction is Mar-Apr 2007 ... so not too far.
There are not overwhelming pointers to suggest dates will move into Jul 2007 and beyond. But there always is a possibility because USCIS needs a healthy pipeline to process especially since all those people since Jul 07 are waiting to file and the pipeline is going to become quite thin in Oct 2011.
As per why this communication to attorneys - that is to ensure some decent public relations. Attorneys become their conduit to convey information to people like us.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mpurna77
May be its off topic when Bernanke give public statements nowadays after 100 yrs of Fed history, why we need these Attorneys in between. Can't they post on site or give statements directly to Immigration communities.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I'm not sure what "They heard from there lawyers that DOS is planning to slow up things when they hit EB2 I for 2007 dates." means and don't know how "slow up things" is a good news??
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Sorry, I should have been clearer.
The 16k refers to the number of EB2-I applicants with PD of Jan-Dec 2007 still waiting to file I-485, based on the PERM calculations.
Virtually all the 2006 people should have filed already, either in July 2007 or in July-September 2008. Most, even audited PERM, had been Certified by then. The numbers don't suggest many others left with 2006 PDs who have never had a chance to file.
The real number of I-485 for 2006 PDs is impossible to say.
Simplistically, taking into account that EB2-I was Current up to September 2005, then the number of 2005 PD approvals in FY2008 would have been relatively lower. EB2-I received nearly 15k visas that year, so a fair number were probably for 2006 PDs.
The true number of EB2-I 2006 PD I-485s would be 19k plus those approved in the 3 months that PDs up to May 31 2006 were Current in FY2008.
I have no idea what the end figure would be, but probably well into the 20ks. Pick a number.
I do think it was a very interesting and astute question Kanmani raised. I wish I could answer it.
its not 'slow up things' is good news. when they (DOS) mentioning making things slow when 2007 dates means PD will go to Jan 2007. so its just another 2 months from Q estimates of Mar/Apr 2007.Quote:
Originally Posted by ChampU
Mpurna, this certainly can't be good news. From what you are saying, it will move only 3 months in the next 3 months :(
July-September is "Spill-over" season. Certainly, after DOS has already moved dates so much in May and June, hopes are high now.....
once they hit 2007 (july) they have to slowdown to build i485 pipeline :)
Spec,
any idea howmany EB2 I 485s will be in 2008? and 2009? based on perm numbers.
Beiber, I like your perspective :)
Maybe it will hit June-July 2007 before they decide to slow things down (who knows how they really think anyways? )
This wait is excruciating but I'm keeping my hopes up!!!
My take on it is...Quote:
Originally Posted by Monica12
DOS/USCIS may want to advance dates in a controlled mannen (1 month at a time).. untill they get a healthy pipeline of about 40K+ (for next spill over season).
Below is an Example: Assuming a Spill over + regular quota of 30K in 2012 for EB2IC... they will be left with a pipeline of 20k+ in Oct 2012. Then they may follow the same pattern.
Sep 2011 - PD Mar 2007
Oct 2011 - PD May 2007 (about 4K applications)
Nov 2011 - PD July 2007 (about 4K applications)
Dec 2011 - PD Sep 2007 (about 4K applications)
Jan 2012 - PD Nov 2007 (about 4K applications)
Feb 2012 - PD Jan 2008 (about 4K applications)
Mar 2012 - PD Mar 2008 (about 4K applications)
Apr 2012 - PD May 2008 (about 4K applications)
May 2012 - PD July 2008 (about 4K applications)
Jun 2012 - PD Sept 2008 (about 4K applications)
Jul 2012 - PD Nov 2008 (about 4K applications)
Aug 2012 - PD Jan 2009 (about 4K applications)
Sep 2012 - PD Mar 2009 (about 4K applications)
Oct 2012 - PD June 2008 --- Retrogess
Interesting approach, but why wouldnt they not do it one shot and retrogress which gives them time to preadjucate the cases rather than moving month by month and putting extra pressure continously?Quote:
Originally Posted by skpanda
Skpanada, It would be great if they did it this way but I don't believe it has happened like this in a long time.
If they are systematic as you suggest, atleast we won't get sleepless nites. This whole process of stalling, retrogressing and sometimes jumping is quite crazy imo.
vishnu,Quote:
Originally Posted by vishnu
We have discussed this extensively. We can not rely on salary to distinguish between Eb2/Eb3. DOL started publishing PW wage request data, which could provide some what better picture Please check previous posts from Spec
The problem with bulk movement is that if porting numbers rise or if EB1/EB5/EB2ROW pick up, it would build up huge inventory numbers.The workload on USCIS plate may become unmanageable and lead to wastage of visas.Quote:
Originally Posted by soggadu
The phased approach allows the DOS to remain flexible with the PD movements.
Biber,Quote:
Originally Posted by bieber
Please check the PERM Data Matrix, our estimate is for EB2I is 70% and 80% respectively for 2008 & 2009.
Kanmani,Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
As of 2011Q2 PERM data release EB2I got about 23,000 PERM approvals with PD2008 and another 16,000 PERM approvals with PD2009.
If we take an average of 70-30 (EB2-EB3) ratio and 1.2 dependent factor could means 60,000 i-485 for 2008&2009 just for India!
Quote:
Originally Posted by soggadu
If they do it in a single shot.. they will have to handle a huge volume of applications in a single month. USCIS always complains about have thin staff blah blah. So I am confident that they will advance the dates in a controller manner. Not necessarily in the same way that i mentioned.
I just came across this post in trackitt; not sure how reliable it is and what what one can deduce from the same. The post is below:
================================================== ================================================== =====================
My company lawyer (A top notch law firm in east coast) says EB2-I PD could move as far as Q1 2008 by sep 2011. He said he got this information from his govt. liaison. I have strong reason to believe my company lawyer because he really has good contacts in the govt. My personal experience: USCIS screwed up the PD on my I-140 (I-140 approval notice had wrong PD). My company lawyer worked with govt. liaison and got it fixed in one week. That was amazingly fast knowing how efficient USCIS is.
The lawyer said EB2-I PD would move to Q1 2008, but, what exact month/date in Q1 depends on how many I-485 applications will be approved in the upcoming months.
This makes sense because even NVC has started sending out letters asking to pay fees for CP applicants with PD up to March 2008.
I just hope all of us waiting to file I-485 will get a chance this year.
================================================== ================================================== =====================
The reason I don't think it will happen in a progressive way, as above, is that DOS have to nominally stick to the law.Quote:
Originally Posted by skpanda
When we reach October, there are only about 3k visas initially available to each of EB2 I&C.
Further, DOS are not allowed to issue more than 27% of the available visas in each of the first 3 quarters.
The Cut Off Date represents the date of the first applicant who cannot be issued a visa.
DOS are going to have to bend the law a bit to build the pipeline, but I don't think they will break it in such a flagrant manner, although I accept anything is possible since it is uncharted territory.
They do, however, have to allow enough time for USCIS to process new filings to completion, so that it turns into Demand.
So, as has been discussed previously, they might make a large forward movement in April/May VB (if they don't do it in September) to allow new applications to be filed, followed by retrogressing until spillover season when there are enough visas available to actually approve them.
The advantage of this approach is that DOS have several months to gauge demand in the contributors to spillover.
The disadvantage (and it is a huge one) is that it relies on USCIS processing the cases in a timely manner. The USCIS stated goal is 4 months, so it really isn't a DOS problem if USCIS cannot or won't meet those targets.
By the time that becomes apparent, it will be too late to generate new demand within EB2. DOS can either take account of that by building a bigger buffer (possibly even earlier), or accept that if USCIS can't process the cases, they can always allocate unused visas to EB3 by advancing their Cut Off Dates later in the year. Those cases are generally pre-adjudicated, so they could easily take up the slack due to USCIS inefficiency and EB3 has more CP cases which DOS can handle themselves.
I think that covers most of the bases.
I am not saying that is what will happen, but they are all viable options.
I could be wrong, but that is how I would do it.
Kanmani,Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
Search for the posts where Prevailing Wage Data was analyzed by minimum educational and experience requirements. That is a much better indicator than salary, since there are high paid EB3s and low paid EB2s depending in what sector they work in.
Whilst the figures might be skewed slightly on the high side, it has shown a consistent 70:30 overall split of EB2:EB3 for all Countries since the data was made available (in 2010 I believe).
We would expect the split for India to be even more biased towards EB2.
Earlier years may be lower figures, since porting has probably increased the EB2 %, but I doubt EB2-I has dipped below 60:40, given the retrogression in EB3-I and is almost certainly higher than that in recent years. The Trackitt figures back this up.
With Q's permission, I will post it in the FACTS & DATA section when I have time. Edit: DONE.
Spec nobody needs nobody's permission my friend. Post what you find valuable!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
pch053,Quote:
Originally Posted by pch053
Let's hope so.
Kanmani,Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
Things changed post 2005, I don't think very many people with 3yr degrees are coming to US these days.
It would not be fun to get into EB2-EB2 porting discussions, again. This is the sole reason that at least i have stopped viewing Trackitt where the only thing one could find were EB2-EB3 porting flame wars. People who port from EB3 to EB2 follow a legal process and get approved only when their case is valid. Each and every case that gets through the process is as valid as the next one. As far as how many people are porting, sudden increase in porting numbers(imagine any crazy number) is not possible since the job market is pretty much dead, as has been the case for past 3 years. In such a scenario, even to maintain your current job on visa is big deal, and impossible to find a new good company who will spend $20k on your H1, and GC. Besides that, anyone before August 2007 anyway has EAD and can switch employer using AC21. As a result they are in no real hurry to port.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
ssvp22,Quote:
Originally Posted by ssvp22
Valid points to note.
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I know you don't mind, but it is always polite to ask.
Besides, you are GURU now!
How do I address you?:D
PS I'm glad I have done it, considering how long it took me to track down the original postings!
LoL
I brought the Guru threshold to 300. So I am not the only Guru around!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
If this turns out to be true.. unfortunately it will not help people like me who have PD in 2010... but then I cannot complain... people had to wait for atleast 2/3 yrs.
Good luck to all of you!!
S
Quote:
Originally Posted by pch053
Kanmani,Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
I agree that multiple PERMs skew our estimates, but based on i140 trending and recent USCIS comments confirming that porting is not really as high as estimated, i believe our estimates are not too far from the reality!
Has anyone else here (or friends) with priority date in 2008 eb2 got any letter from NVC asking to pay fee details? . Looks like they might have more than 6k of eb1 number ( as 12k came out of 2nd quarter), dates might easily go to may or june 2007. But main question is how will they prepare for next year?, i think there will be fewer people with priority date between july 2007 and december 2007. Main reason of spike in jan to june 2007 applications is because of news that substitute labors are going to stop in june'2007. Out of my friends who got gc around 30-40 people, most of them came to united states only in 2005-2007 and 90% of them got subsitute labors, to my knowledge number of application should decrease after july 2007.
Anyway i am being very optimistic so that my dates will be current for atleast EAD, i am not even thinking of GC right now.
Nice to see this forum unlike others where there is more noise than voice.
Grnwtg - 16500 and 11500 PERMS were certified for India in FY 2008 and 2009 respectively. Even if you assume a 10% rejection rate at I-140 and 65% are EB2, that imples around 32,000 I-485s are pending for just those 2 years (including dependents). If you assume there are multiple perms included in the perm certification, we would still have about 25k 485s pending. Since there won't be much China backlog, any spillover similar to what we are seeing now we could clear that FY 2008 and 2009 in a year (optimistic assumptions here of course). But I don't think Dos would know any of the spillover trends till at least Q2 FY 2012, when they may move dates to end FY 2009. Don't think they would open then up now itself... Anyting is possible, but just my views. But the current situation is unprecedented in that the pipeline will be over soon and demand in FY 08 and FY 09 is definitely lower than prior years... so hope we can see positive news.
Tks Kanmani - but why do we calculate for CY when spillovers / priority dates are all based on FY.
If we look at the inventory for 2007 for India the EB2 Total is 9918 and EB3 Total is 4616. None of these points have ever been current after 2007. This gives the ratio as 68%. However Iam sure now that there is more clarity even fewer people are applying in EB3. The only reasons to file in EB3 are a) 6th Year extension, Eb3 approval is safer than EB2 b)Having a PD to port later c) Company policy to file in EB3 d) Only a 3 yr degree with no addendum. The ratio for EB2 - EB3 is easily 75-25 now and as many people have put it the total EB2 India / China backlog might well be 100K.
05/27/2011: House Bill Exempting from Certain Schedule A Foreign Nurses From Numerical Limitation for Employment-Based Immigration Visas Upto 20,000 Per Year
* We reported earlier that there was a bill introduced in the House a few days back entitled "Emergency Nursing Supply Relief Act" to relieve this country from nursing shortage. This bill provides that if Schedule A I-140 petition is "filed" before 09/30/2014, such professional nurses are exempted from employment-based immigrant visa numerical limitation upto 20,000 per year if such petition is approved. Additionally such nurses' "accompanying or following-to-join" family members (spouse and children) are also exempted from the numerical limit, no matter how many the numbers would be. Accordingly, the annual limit of this special 20,000 per year will count only principal beneficiary of Schedule A petition, nurses. It means that such qualified Scheduled A immigrant petition will produce a much larger than 20,000 who receive the benefits of exemption from the annual numerical limits regardless of immigrant visa cut-off dates in the Visa Bulletin. This bill also provides recapture of unused 20,000 numerical limit exempted numbers in the following year.
* Good deal for the foreign nurses!
This is a news from http://www.immigration-law.com/Canada.html
I think, this is a good news for us too as whoever are in EB2 queue for nurses category doesn't need visa assigned from this quota and those numbers might be used for rest. Also, this is an ongoing process for future visa allocation as well.