EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

Here is a link that tells us the approved i-140 numbers for 2020.

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...2020_Q3_Q4.pdf

There is a sharp drop off from 2019 (144998) to 2020 (116685) in EB1/2/3 categories. If you subtract the numbers for India and China in EB2 and EB3 you get the ROW i140 numbers as 15827 in EB2 and 18893 in EB3. After factoring in the x2 multiplier, EB3I will probably only get the excess 34K of horizontal spillover if the trend continues in 2021, whereas potential horizontal spillover for EB2I will be 34K and some + Vertical Spillover. I believe people till May 2011 in EB2I should be in pretty good shape provided the numbers are not wasted.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Ok - I thought you were thinking of volunteering the information. If there is a specific question asking you about your income then you should be truthful. Disability pay is considered income and so yes it should be included. Again it all depends how they have phrased the question. Are they asking for W2 income or generally any income?

In either case - I don't see how this can in any way be harmful. I know your lawyer doesn't recommend. So I am puzzled honestly. Why would a lawyer knowingly ask you to not answer a question truthfully?

My take is - disability is not public burden. You or your employer has paid insurance premiums or social security for it.

p.s. - LTD is basically an insurance and there is a contract that binds the provider and the beneficiary. So this is classic old contract law. Immigration status does not affect contract law. Honestly you would be paid LTD even if you were an illegal immigrant.

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USCIS asks for employer, weekly salary information (if applicant was employed prior to CoS to H4), which then has to be backed up with evidence like paystubs.
I agree with you that providing LTD income information is the right way to go and something that could be defended if it comes to that. Thanks again!

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Originally Posted by bangaloreboy

USCIS asks for employer, weekly salary information (if applicant was employed prior to CoS to H4), which then has to be backed up with evidence like paystubs.
I agree with you that providing LTD income information is the right way to go and something that could be defended if it comes to that. Thanks again!

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Just to be clear LTD is not salary. It is benefit that is considered income. So again - it all depends on how the question is worded. I will say - just go ahead and use your best judgement - if USCIS has a problem you can always respond to their questions. All the best.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

inspired - I have done this for a living and I can tell you with certainty that modelling this has been incredibly difficult because of the sensitivity of the forecasting model.

Ever heard of chaos theory - the proverbial butterfly in pacific causing storm half way across the world?

The forecasting of backlog reduction is - although not as bad - but is quite bad. The reason is very simple - the demand and is huge and supply is limited. So any tiny variations on the demand side can make one queue move faster than other quite easily.

I know this does not help you get exact answer you are looking for. But at least it tells you that any answer you get from anybody is going to be unreliable.

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I know it's not easy to calculate with insufficient data. Thank you for your response. I was just wondering because EB3-I should leap frog ahead with only the horizontal spillover ( around 30 K) based on the whatever data we have. Also EB3 downgrades filled in oct 2020 might not have approved when the FAD gets current pushing the dates even further than what the calculation suggests. But this is all guesstimates.

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Originally Posted by AceMan

Attachment 1777

The above is a tweet which I got from here and it was shared by David J Bier.
For calculation take the full year for 2010 and 2011. EB2 has about 45,000 applicants for this period and 11,500 for EB3. Since this list was released in March 2020, we can be sure all these numbers would have started to be greened only from FY 2021.

I have been a strong proponent of short term gain for EB2. Lot of people think that I do that to mislead people because my date is Feb 2011 in EB3. I have no intention to correct or change the way people think about my vested interest in this. I would rather put the analysis and my interpretation here.

The Eb1 movement over the last one year is a very key factor in me hedging the bet on EB2 for FY 21. EB1 India due to the backlog had their demand halved from April 2018 to March 2020. Eb1 ROW got current around same time when embassies closed and it resulted in spillover getting applied to EB1 India and China from last quarter of 2020.

Eb3-ROW had some huge demand at the start of FY 2020 and it was backlogged just before corona induced shutdown happened. It was backlogged for the entire FY 20 since then and returned to current only in the beginning of FY21.

EB2-ROW was having a good demand through out 2020 and it was expected to have cut off some time before Corona and it did not happen. However the high demand ensure EB2 I got only the bare minimum by looking at the date movement.

For 2021, unlike any previous years for the exception of 2005 we are getting about 262,000 for EB. The motivation factor is this should be a massive windfall to Indian backlog with the consular closings till March, and absolutely no demand from world wide. As we have seen so far for 6 months EB1 is now current and there is no demand in this FY for this category. We have already seen even with a 4:1 demand EB2 I moved more than EB3 I in the March bulletin.

This intensity is expected to continue for next 3-4 months at about 4 months movement where I am expecting EB2 in July bulletin to reach May 2011. This should be the motivation for the EB2 guys, instead of trying to jump to EB3 thinking you are going to get your GC an hour before. You already waited more than a decade so just wait it out instead of going to lawyers who are filing 2nd I-485 and looting more money out of you.

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Thank you for your response.
I also agree that the EB2-I will benefit from vertical spillover along with the horizontal spillover while EB3-I will only get the horizontal spillover in 2020 and 2021 ( 2022 will be back to the grid )
But I think not all with PD before May 2011 would have had the opportunity ( same employer and employer willing) to downgrade so the downgrade % will be higher for people with PD after May 2011
This is just a guess again.

Also EB3-I and EB2-I both moved 3 months in the March bulletin, so EB2-I didnt move more than EB3-I

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Originally Posted by H1b2006

before downgrading it is 15308:6677 for eb2:eb3 in 2010 , 6500 approx falls under eb2 May 2010 who will not downport, rest 9000 people atleast 6000 moved to EB3 it becomes 10000:12000 for 2010 EB2:EB3

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Thats 75% of people downgrading. I don't think thats a good estimate. as FD of May 2011 was current for EB2-I, not many would have the employer willing to downgrade the petition when 485 was possible to be applied without it.

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Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly

Yeah it looks like they will keep pace with each other with EB3 running a few months ahead until May 2011. After May 2011, there are going to be thousands of downgrades to EB3 until Jan 1-2015, so it's going to be a muddled mess with people jumping back and forth between queues depending on what is more advantageous at that point of time. But at least people through the end of 2014 will be free agents in a couple of months and will no longer be tied to their employers and situations. They will happily take that compared to the 2009-2010 folks who have waited an agonizingly long time.

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This is what I guess as well. EB3 to EB2 ratio will start getting to parity only for PDs between May 2011 and Jan 2015. Before May 2011 though there will be people downgrading it will not be mass exodus from EB2 to EB3

Immigration ban rescinded !! Wonder how this will affect the spillover ..

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-...amation-10014/

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Originally Posted by inspired_p

Thank you for your response.
I also agree that the EB2-I will benefit from vertical spillover along with the horizontal spillover while EB3-I will only get the horizontal spillover in 2020 and 2021 ( 2022 will be back to the grid )
But I think not all with PD before May 2011 would have had the opportunity ( same employer and employer willing) to downgrade so the downgrade % will be higher for people with PD after May 2011
This is just a guess again.

Also EB3-I and EB2-I both moved 3 months in the March bulletin, so EB2-I didnt move more than EB3-I

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The downgrades before May 2011 is very minimal. None of them have downgraded as real situation is very different from forum aggression/trolling.

EB2 moved from October 12th to January 15th. It is 3 days more than EB3 speed. Over the last 2 years it moved 1-2 days a bulletin.

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Originally Posted by Kesid23

Immigration ban rescinded !! Wonder how this will affect the spillover ..

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-...amation-10014/

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Only for family GC and Diversity lottery. Not for H1b, L1 and J visa. Those remain till March 31

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Originally Posted by android09

Only for family GC and Diversity lottery. Not for H1b, L1 and J visa. Those remain till March 31

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But we were counting spillover on family gc for next FY 2022.
Will the EB ( ROW) be affected?

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Originally Posted by longwaitgigu

But we were counting spillover on family gc for next FY 2022.
Will the EB ( ROW) be affected?

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Why should USCIS consider our counting and expectations?

However I am expecting the demand at the consulates are not going be heavy considering the pandemic situation prevailing at many places around the globe. You can still expect a very similar spillover you received for 2021 in 2022 as well.

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Originally Posted by longwaitgigu

But we were counting spillover on family gc for next FY 2022.
Will the EB ( ROW) be affected?

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With cases rising in rest of the world I am not sure if the consulates will be ready to open in full capacity this fiscal. My Gut feel is that we should get close to the same amount of SO . Here is my back of the envelope estimation :
For the last fiscal the US consulates functioned at normal pace from Oct1st to Feb 28th/midMarch . That is atleast 5 months and gave us 120K SO due to the shutdown. This fiscal we have 7 months left and the consulates will probably function at 50% capacity Max. So hoping for the same of greater SO is still possible ?
I am not sure if it is True , the US consulates they say will get their US workers fully vaccinated before taking larger case loads of CP. That might also delay CP cases and help the SO.

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Originally Posted by Moveon

With cases rising in rest of the world I am not sure if the consulates will be ready to open in full capacity this fiscal. My Gut feel is that we should get close to the same amount of SO . Here is my back of the envelope estimation :
For the last fiscal the US consulates functioned at normal pace from Oct1st to Feb 28th/midMarch . That is atleast 5 months and gave us 120K SO due to the shutdown. This fiscal we have 7 months left and the consulates will probably function at 50% capacity Max. So hoping for the same of greater SO is still possible ?
I am not sure if it is True , the US consulates they say will get their US workers fully vaccinated before taking larger case loads of CP. That might also delay CP cases and help the SO.

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Visas were not issued for oct 2020, nov 2020, dec 2020, Jan 2021, feb 2021. These will spill over to EB in Oct 2021.

it depends on capacity though, the limit for FB GC has not been reduced for this fiscal year because of ban. It is still the same and if they really were able to (in a world unaffected by COVID), they could issue all visas by ramping up processing speed. But like others, I agree that there will be some spillover. However, I doubt it will be the same amount we saw.

A question. What multiplication factor is used in calculating ROW visa usage for EB1, EB2 and EB3 resp.? Like, 1 family uses how many visa numbers for these categories? Just trying to estimate spillover for fun.
Thanks

HI all,

I am in a bind and thought to put my situation here to get your inputs.

I have a PD of Mar-2011 in EB2 and we applied for I-485, EAD and AP in Oct-2020. We got all the receipts last week. We also had applied for my H1 and family's H4 extension by end of year 2020 as they are expiring in end of March 2021. We didn't apply for my wife H4-EAD renewal at the time as we had already applied for I-485 in Oct 2020 and also didn't expect that process would take so much time. Since it has taken so long to just get the receipts, hopes of getting the EAD by March 2020 are low.

As my wife's H4-EAD is expiring in the next 45 days, we are now thinking of also applying for H4-EAD on a hope/prayer that it comes within that timeframe ( I know H4-EAD processing times are equally bad but desperate time calls for desperate measures).

My question is would my wife's H4-EAD application hurt or have an adverse effect on her 485-ead application as essentially they are the same but in different categories?

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Originally Posted by mohan_jgd

HI all,

I am in a bind and thought to put my situation here to get your inputs.

I have a PD of Mar-2011 in EB2 and we applied for I-485, EAD and AP in Oct-2020. We got all the receipts last week. We also had applied for my H1 and family's H4 extension by end of year 2020 as they are expiring in end of March 2021. We didn't apply for my wife H4-EAD renewal at the time as we had already applied for I-485 in Oct 2020 and also didn't expect that process would take so much time. Since it has taken so long to just get the receipts, hopes of getting the EAD by March 2020 are low.

As my wife's H4-EAD is expiring in the next 45 days, we are now thinking of also applying for H4-EAD on a hope/prayer that it comes within that timeframe ( I know H4-EAD processing times are equally bad but desperate time calls for desperate measures).

My question is would my wife's H4-EAD application hurt or have an adverse effect on her 485-ead application as essentially they are the same but in different categories?

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No, I am in the same boat as you are in, the slight difference is we have applied H-1B / H-4 (& H-4-EAD) at the same time with H-1 premium and H-1 got approved in a week. The day my H-1 extension package was received by USCIS, receipt was generated and Biometrics was triggered for I-485, I-765 & I-539. Had we not applied H-1 extension , I doubt we would have received Biometrics as my receipt date on 485 is 11/16/20. So, if you apply for H-4 EAD and it might trigger Biometrics for your pending applications.

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Originally Posted by mohan_jgd

HI all,
My question is would my wife's H4-EAD application hurt or have an adverse effect on her 485-ead application as essentially they are the same but in different categories?

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Both are different and have different eligibility criteria. One is (c)(26) [H4] and another is (c)(9)(P) [AOS]. You are perfectly allowed to have a dual-intent non-immigrant H1/H4 or L1/L2 and an immigrant (AOS) petition at the same time. USCIS will treat them as separate petitions and adjudicate them based on the basis / evidence. If you are in a non-immigrant visa like F1/F2 (where you justified the consulate officer that you will return back to your country), then the moment you apply for AOS, F1/F2 will cancel. So, H4 EAD will not have an adverse effect on AOS.

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Originally Posted by idliman

Both are different and have different eligibility criteria. One is (c)(26) [H4] and another is (c)(9)(P) [AOS]. You are perfectly allowed to have a dual-intent non-immigrant H1/H4 or L1/L2 and an immigrant (AOS) petition at the same time. USCIS will treat them as separate petitions and adjudicate them based on the basis / evidence. If you are in a non-immigrant visa like F1/F2 (where you justified the consulate officer that you will return back to your country), then the moment you apply for AOS, F1/F2 will cancel. So, H4 EAD will not have an adverse effect on AOS.

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Thanks idliman for confirming.

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Originally Posted by SaibabaAug2010

[/I][/B]
No, I am in the same boat as you are in, the slight difference is we have applied H-1B / H-4 (& H-4-EAD) at the same time with H-1 premium and H-1 got approved in a week. The day my H-1 extension package was received by USCIS, receipt was generated and Biometrics was triggered for I-485, I-765 & I-539. Had we not applied H-1 extension , I doubt we would have received Biometrics as my receipt date on 485 is 11/16/20. So, if you apply for H-4 EAD and it might trigger Biometrics for your pending applications.

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We did receive bio-metric notices for our H4 extensions and they were finger-printed this week. I am hoping that eliminates the need for bio-metrics at-least for my wife's AOS application and possibly expedites in getting her EAD approved..

Thankyou for explanation
May be it's the anxiety of been so near and not able to get GC due to ROW CP, processing delays which could be solved by uscis if they start issuing RFE and biometric according to PD, eventually helping the backlog cleared in sequence and allowing no further retrogression specifically for eb3 as ROW demand will spike up as soon as April. Gcseeker has explained in trackitt if u check nuts and bolts thread.
If covaid cases and deaths go up ( which is could be solved by mass vaccination)then we can see decrease ROW CP demand or not able to process it.

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Originally Posted by SaibabaAug2010

[/I][/B]
No, I am in the same boat as you are in, the slight difference is we have applied H-1B / H-4 (& H-4-EAD) at the same time with H-1 premium and H-1 got approved in a week. The day my H-1 extension package was received by USCIS, receipt was generated and Biometrics was triggered for I-485, I-765 & I-539. Had we not applied H-1 extension , I doubt we would have received Biometrics as my receipt date on 485 is 11/16/20. So, if you apply for H-4 EAD and it might trigger Biometrics for your pending applications.

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Hi SaibabaAug2010,

Are you saying because of your H1B(+ H4 EAD) Premium application, your bio-metrics got triggered for your i-485 application that was submitted on 11/16/20? Don't you think it's a coincidence? If your H4 EAD bio-metrics got triggered at least it makes sense and can think that JB admin is doing something to alleviate H4 EAD extension grid lock.

Thanks!

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Originally Posted by maverick2010

Hi SaibabaAug2010,

Are you saying because of your H1B(+ H4 EAD) Premium application, your bio-metrics got triggered for your i-485 application that was submitted on 11/16/20? Don't you think it's a coincidence? If your H4 EAD bio-metrics got triggered at least it makes sense and can think that JB admin is doing something to alleviate H4 EAD extension grid lock.

Thanks!

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We filed AOS for the family in Oct-20 and then applied for H1/H4 extension in Nov-20. H1 got approved within a month and exactly after 2 months (Jan-21), we got H4 FP, which we completed early this month and its been 3 weeks and no movement on her H4 (shows FP applied to case). Its interesting H4 FP req. came in within 2 months but AOS FP for family hasn't happened and checking with USCIS chat they neither scheduled FP for AOS nor applied FP taken from H4 to AOS case yet (hopefully they apply it soon).

It has been reported that few EB2 candidates from 2011 got their GC this month. Are we looking at a one year movement for that category next month?

Could not resist!!! When are the aayas going to be gayas?

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Originally Posted by AceMan

It has been reported that few EB2 candidates from 2011 got their GC this month. Are we looking at a one year movement for that category next month?

Could not resist!!! When are the aayas going to be gayas?

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I saw that post on trackitt.
I thought it looked like it was maybe a troll message? Too good to be true? :)

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Originally Posted by AceMan

It has been reported that few EB2 candidates from 2011 got their GC this month. Are we looking at a one year movement for that category next month?

Could not resist!!! When are the aayas going to be gayas?

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If that's the case, isn't it an error on USCIS' side?I have heard about people getting RFEs when their PD is about to be current..but getting a GC seems like an error

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Originally Posted by AceMan

It has been reported that few EB2 candidates from 2011 got their GC this month. Are we looking at a one year movement for that category next month?

Could not resist!!! When are the aayas going to be gayas?

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If that's the case, isn't it an error on USCIS' side?I have heard about people getting RFEs when their PD is about to be current..but getting a GC seems like an error

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Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly

AC21 is only allowed if you work in a job which closely tracks with the original job offer. So you can't go work in a gas station or something else because the new employer has to provide a I-485J attesting to the fact that the new job is similar to the original one. So you are a 'free agent' but you can only play within the same sport for another team, you cannot switch to another sport :).

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My lawyer said that from his experience, the USCIS is extremely lenient about the "same or similar" requirement. So for example, if you have a PERM for being a college teacher and worked as a chef, it might not work, but if you switched to *any* role within the education industry, you will be fine. For example, you could be a textbook editor or instructional designer, or teach a totally different subject from what you were hired for, etc.

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Originally Posted by nbk1976

My lawyer said that from his experience, the USCIS is extremely lenient about the "same or similar" requirement. So for example, if you have a PERM for being a college teacher and worked as a chef, it might not work, but if you switched to *any* role within the education industry, you will be fine. For example, you could be a textbook editor or instructional designer, or teach a totally different subject from what you were hired for, etc.

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This is absolutely correct. The reason is simple - their resources are better utilized going after true fraud cases which there are plenty and illegal immigrant related cases which are tens of millions. There is no point going after legal immigrants who simply may have committed a technical offense.

If you think about it Market automatically takes care of ensuring that you do a job that you are skilled to do. So USCIS should have ZERO interest in enforcing the "same or similar" mandate.

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Originally Posted by Kesid23

I saw that post on trackitt.
I thought it looked like it was maybe a troll message? Too good to be true? :)

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Originally Posted by may2011

If that's the case, isn't it an error on USCIS' side?I have heard about people getting RFEs when their PD is about to be current..but getting a GC seems like an error

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I recall my discussion with another user few years back on trackitt where he got his GC in error before his date was current. He took lot of pain and spent company money on the lawyer to return the GC. However when USCIS issued a new GC the expiry date again matched the date of the original GC he was issued.

So it is very obvious USCIS don't give rats... to the days. It is only extremely vigilant backlogged guys like us who are particular about it.

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Originally Posted by may2011

If that's the case, isn't it an error on USCIS' side?I have heard about people getting RFEs when their PD is about to be current..but getting a GC seems like an error

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Getting an RFE does not mean your case is going to be adjudicated right away. While there are implications regarding financial costs of Medicals for a family, it could imply perhaps processing is going to be imminent in the next few months?

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Originally Posted by android09

Getting an RFE does not mean your case is going to be adjudicated right away. While there are implications regarding financial costs of Medicals for a family, it could imply perhaps processing is going to be imminent in the next few months?

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That makes sense..folks with PDs before May2010 have been submitting medicals every 2 years I think

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Originally Posted by AceMan

I recall my discussion with another user few years back on trackitt where he got his GC in error before his date was current. He took lot of pain and spent company money on the lawyer to return the GC. However when USCIS issued a new GC the expiry date again matched the date of the original GC he was issued.

So it is very obvious USCIS don't give rats... to the days. It is only extremely vigilant backlogged guys like us who are particular about it.

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True..we dot our it's and cross out t's.I hope USCIS ramps up its processing..the wait has been agonizing

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Originally Posted by may2011

That makes sense..folks with PDs before May2010 have been submitting medicals every 2 years I think

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No. I filed in 2012 and only submitted the medicals then. Only ppl in early 2009 who were close to getting current in the past have gotten RFE's and submitted medicals. later 2009/2010 folks haven't been contacted since 2012 it seems.

I'm March 2020 EB2 - no RFE so far or ever in the past. TSC.

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Originally Posted by smuggymba

No. I filed in 2012 and only submitted the medicals then. Only ppl in early 2009 who were close to getting current in the past have gotten RFE's and submitted medicals. later 2009/2010 folks haven't been contacted since 2012 it seems.

I'm March 2020 EB2 - no RFE so far or ever in the last. TSC.

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Thanks for the clarification!

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Originally Posted by android09

Getting an RFE does not mean your case is going to be adjudicated right away. While there are implications regarding financial costs of Medicals for a family, it could imply perhaps processing is going to be imminent in the next few months?

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Based on trackitt numbers, it does look like USCIS is issuing bio-metrics appt based on I-485 application received date.

If USCIS is anticipating forward movement for EB cases, wouldn't it be prudent for USCIS to send bio-metrics appt for Oct 2020 filers based on Priority Date rather I-485 Received Date? EB3 got moved until end of 2014 in Oct 2020 and there will be lot of wastage if USCIS continue to issue appt based on Received Date.

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Originally Posted by SG2020

Thanks for the detailed reply...I had tried to research before posting but couldn't find the complete answers.

Just a couple of quick follow ups:

1. Fragomen provided the same reason - that they don't have the original application and so can't apply in PP. However, the application was sent the normal route. Job/company/location are all same. Once we get the receipt notice, should I push for sending a request for PP update?

2. Still not clear about the whole 'free agent' and 'work in the "GC" job that you and employer signed up for after getting GC' part. I will try to look up AC21 guidelines.

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Regarding 1. One of my friend has exactly same situation. Working for same employer and downgraded to EB3 in October, Fragomen filed his I-140 in regular and after he got the receipt, converted to PP. He already got his I-140 approved too in PP.

Hello Gurus,
I am a longtime silent follower and really appreciate all GURUS here who are helping others. If you have few mins, could you please provide your comments for below questions?
My PD is EB2 June 2010 and I filled 485 during Oct-2020 and I already got my EAD 2 weeks back.

During my Oct-2020 I485J, Our attorney filed I485J with the SOC Code as 15-1122 which stands for Computer Security Analyst [https://www.nj.gov/labor/lpa/employ/.../cape_ind.pdf]. After 14 yrs work with the same employer[ same end client], I moved to an Architect role. This was mentioned in I485J within the description section along with old job title as Sr.Security Administrator.

Currently I have direct job offer "Director - IT" from end-client where I am currently working for the past 14 yrs [all my 14 yrs H1 life is with this one single client :)]. Due to resource consolidation, the end client is pushing me to join as a direct employee asap. I have explained the 180 days rule and they are ready to hire me by April-May 2021 timeframe.

Questions:

1) If I keep staying with my current employer [as Technical Architect], will the existing I485 will have any issues in approval stage since my SOC code and my current title is not matching?
2) If I move my job and join new employer as "Director-IT" title, will it cause any issues to my I485 approval? [It is same job role with a different tittle]
3) If I decided to move on EAD[ new employer wont sponsor H1B or GC], what docs do I need to keep in handy? [ I have my I140 copy and PERM advertisement copy. Do I need Labor[PERM] copy or any other docs?]
4) Since we applied I485 and I485 by October only, will they ask I486J again if the date moves to current by June-July timeframe? [ New Employer is ready to provide I485J].

I really prefer to get the GC and then move my job as it is always safe. However, my dilemma is not to miss a management role.

If the new employer is not ready to wait for another 6-8 months delay, I may need to join by April-May 2021 timeframe.

Hi Everyone,
I am a silent reader of this forum. My PD is EB2 28th April 2010, service center TSC. Just wanted to get some thoughts on how you think the priority date movement will be impacted now that the Green Card ban has been lifted. Do we reckon dates will still move to atleast 1st May 2010 for EB2? I am hoping I will get current in the next few months. but given the fact that the horizontal spillover likely will be reduced with all the CP cases consuming these numbers, I do not feel very optimistic. Also the processing center is TSC , which has not been sending out RFEs like nebraska has.

This forum has great posts , which are really helpful and provide the motivation to get through each day given the awfully long wait.