Q, can you please add EVL to the first post, i dont know what it means.Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
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Q, can you please add EVL to the first post, i dont know what it means.Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
qbf, i would also suggest to get it done without hurting any ones ego you are almost there. Stay under the radar, beg, borrow or steal(well as long as its postits) and get it done.
EVL = Employer Verification Letter
NIW is not as difficult as EB1 but it is still difficult to get through. I have many physician friends who work in underserved area. In fact, I am currently also working in an underserved area. Some of those friends have successfully obtained NIW. In fact, one of my colleague got her GC and she was in EB2 NIW category.Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
When I asked my lawyer to file for NIW, he advised me not to go that route because he told me that the criteria are more strict now, lot of RFEs are issued and denial rates are high. The applications are heavily scrutinized according to him.
He told me that NIW applications are compex, require lot of supporting documentations and I-140 approval can take anywhere from 6 months to 18 months under NIW since there is no premium processing available. Labor Certification is obviously waived but in terms of PD, candidates from EB2I and EB2C category do not get any benefit.
The benefits that NIW offer, which I think are huge, are:
1) You don't need an employer to sponsor your application
2) Since it is self-sponsored, jobs can be changed and you can still retain your PD provided you continue to serve in MUS (medically underserved) areas or HPSA (Health Professionals Shortage Areas) for total cumulative of 5 years. (Physicians only)
This is for physicians who usually make a bulk of NIW applications. But these days, that number is also going down compared to previous years because those applications are heavily scrutinized and denial rates are high according to my lawyer.
Now, obviously there is one Anesthesiologist whom I know who got NIW in Kansas City, MO by working in Veterans Affairs (VA) Hospital. If you are working at VA and has supporting letters from there, your chances of getting NIW approved are 99-100%. He had his I-140 approved in 4 months. Kansas City itself has a population of around 4,60,000 with urban area population 1.6 million and metro area population of 2.2 million. This is not an underserved area but than again he was working at VA.
I have another Psychiatrist physician friend who obtained NIW working 2 miles north of Chicago downtown (underserved?????) because that area was designated by Government (CMS - Combined Medicare and Medicaid Services) as medically underserved for psychiatric patient population.
My point is that these applications are tough, but there are legal and administrative loopholes which can work to an individual's benefit to get the approval.
Now, I don't know what are the NIW criteria for other occupations than physicians but anything related to NASA, Military, Government, Serving in minority dominant area (e.g. Native Americans in Appalachian region), National Institute of Health etc. would have higher NIW approval rates.
My factors may just be slightly different. We should all use different factors though based on our beliefs and convictions; however do let me know if any of my factors appear to be unrealistic I will correct them.Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
- Dependent factor I would use 2.25, More than 1 in 8 families have atleast 1 non US born child.
- .8 I would like to call the carry over factor this should include a) Demand Destruction b) I 140 denial c) New demand coming in via NIW for which there are no perms.
- EB2 - EB3 as .75 this is to account for invisible porting i.e. people post 2007 who are porting who may not ever have been inventoried.
This would make the multiplication factor 2.25 * .8 * .75 = 1.35.
The NIW usage cannot be neglected in Jul 2007 itself looks like 1000 485's may have originated from NIW as it does not require labor and people in 2008 are more likely to use it because perm was frozen. There maybe say 100 - 200 cases coming in every month due to NIW. Traditional porting we can assume at 3K (EB3 prior to Jul 2007).
Most of the Doctors apply both EB1 NIW & EB2 NIW parallelly for safe side as per lawyer advice. My friend applied for both and got both approved, this kind of small percentage of 140 should not be counted..this is just for your information
485/EAD/AP reached NSC on 1st Nov. Got receipts by mail on 10th. Online case status says FP notice will be sent within 30 days.Quote:
Originally Posted by soggadu
Agree, that percentage is very small.Quote:
Originally Posted by march272010
One big lawyer in east coast does this NIW for doctors, if they get the RFE for EB1 NIW, same documentation is submitted again and gets approved. this is not just one case saw few like this :-)
Teddy - do we have any reliable way to calculate demand density? The 485 inventory can shed some light but that is not due for some months. 2500 EB2IC demand density is the steady state since that will result in one year movement every year considering a 30K SOFAD.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Thank you for such a detailed information!!Quote:
Originally Posted by Jonty Rhodes
485/EAD/AP reached NSC on 1st Nov. Got receipts by mail on 9th. Online case status says FP notice will be sent within 30 days. Some of my friends are still waiting for receipt even though we couriered our application together and was received at the same time at dallas lockbox..
Quote:
Originally Posted by soggadu
I believe you are talking about Stephen Jefferies & Associates......am I right?Quote:
Originally Posted by march272010
There is no good way to find out absolute NIW numbers. However if we do a unfiltered query for EB2 NIW and EB2 the ratio is ~ 5%. So NIW maybe accounting for probably 1500 EB2 approvals in the year. This number is small not negligible though. Most doctors and specialists file for both EB1 and EB2 - NIW but there is another group which has 10 + years other waiver fields who would not qualify for EB1 they would be more likely to go to NIW at times especially in 2008 when labor process was frozen. Imagine 1000 NIW cases were filed just in Jul 2007 that’s an anomaly though, this month’s inventory simply does not add up otherwise.Quote:
Originally Posted by march272010
If you like this representation maybe porting + NIW can be assumed to be equal to 3K + 1.5K lets approximate to 4K per year to be fair.
Guys , any idea till when was the latest NVC receipts sent out? last I know they have sent out until june 2008...
May be a dumb question.
My priority date is 19th Dec 2007. Planning to apply ASAP in Dec.
What is the process once you apply for I485. I am seeing Soggadu is asking for FP. After that what ?
When can we expect EAD? When can we expect GC if dates dont retrogress?
You can checking latest processing times on the USCIS website.Quote:
Originally Posted by arikepudi
See https://egov.uscis.gov/cris/Dashboar...escriptions.doQuote:
Originally Posted by arikepudi
Some More Information on NIW Petitions and Current Trend
I found this information regarding NIW. Obviously, this comes from a Law Firm so take it with a grain of salt. But in general, the information is pretty accurate and with this bad economy, NIWs have been scrutinized heavily. Criteria have been made more stringent just like for EB1 candidates in Post-Kazarian era.
I am posting few links which throw more light on these petitions.
http://www.hooyou.com/niw/News&Artic...t05112010.html
http://www.hooyou.com/niw/niw_requirements.html
http://www.hooyou.com/niw/attorney_fee.html
http://www.hooyou.com/niw/news.htm
You can find lots of other information on their website regarding NIW since they claim to specialize in NIW petition. This law firm is considered good and responsive but not the best to file NIW petitions. So decide for yourself.
Teddy,Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Will always be waiting for your analysis. I (like you) like to be more on the conservative side. After I am able to file for my 485 I feel like for actual GC, I might have to wait till Oct2012 which is fine by me. Q and other Gurus please when ever you have sufficient data and time update us with your actual GC assurance predictions. My PD btw is feb 08.
Amen to that. Teddy has always erred on the side of caution, which is really important keeping in mind how the state of affairs have been. But I do feel that it is time to be a tad more optimistic :)Quote:
Originally Posted by asankaran
Following Data may help. I used Spec's table to get PERM related data and used jan 5, 2011 inventory to cacluate PERM to I-485 ratio. Surprisingly for 4 out of 6 months ratio is around 1.
Personally I think kd2008's 0.83 is too optimistic while Teddy's 1.35 is too conservative. I would go with 1.1-1.2. Following are some of the reasons of my belief:
- Sudden raise to EB2 NIW in July 2007 can be explained by dates being current. People just apply for I-140 & I-485 together and take chance.
- If we think backlog in PERM might have caused people to apply for NIW, same reasoning apply that people might have jumped because of wait and PERM labor though approved has no meaning.
- There will be demand destruction because of recession and people not having EAD. But I think this will be cancelled out by more and more people applying for EB2 category.
- So all in all this ratio of PERM to I-485 will remain around 1.
PERM-PWMB--Total-PERM--EFF-PERM---EB2-I---EB2-C---EB2-IC---Ratio (EB2IC/EFF-PERM)
Jan---74---------2645--------2571-------1540----654-----2194-----0.85336445
Feb---114--------2273--------2159-------1444----615-----2059-----0.95368226
Mar---150--------2167--------2017-------1404----682-----2086-----1.034209222
Apr---310--------2414--------2104-------1420----609-----2029-----0.964353612
May---698--------2369--------1671-------1070----519-----1589-----0.950927588
Jun---1107-------2623--------1516-------1272----558-----1830-----1.207124011
Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Yes Sir thats correct
Tony thanks for your analysis. This in fact is the reality, if the real data extrapolates to 1 then that is actually the ratio.Quote:
Originally Posted by tonyromo
It would implicitly account for everything except for porting.
Going a small step further the there are ~ 28K perms in 2007. This give ~ 2300 per month, adding 200 per month for porting etc will make the figure 2500 per month look very realistic. Note that 2008 earlier months have higher perms especially Jan.
Now let’s try to see the consumption. 8.5K of demand data has disappeared thus far.
The dates have moved from Jul 15th to Mar 15 i.e. 8 months so this makes it ~ 20K.
So probably CO is still short of the 30K mark. This could mean that movement is still possible in the next bulletin assuming he needs to have a small buffer of say 5K. Dates going to June to match the NVC receipts maybe a possibility if CO wants to have a buffer.
Tony, based on the evidence presented by you, I would agree with you and say that my ratio is optimistic. The reason I was going for a ratio less than one is that in the last four years their has not been the support of EAD which was there for pre-July2007 filers, the recession and people going back & that wasn't the case in pre-July2007, people filing multiple PERMS due to job changes without an EAD.Quote:
Originally Posted by tonyromo
More people filing in EB2 is already accounted in the higher ratio of EB2:EB3 and should not be used to compensate for demand destruction.
In spite of these factors, I agree with you and say, the ratio to be taken is 1.0
Hi Soggadu,Quote:
Originally Posted by soggadu
I received my receipt yes'day. Application recieved - Nov 1st, Notice date - Nov 4th.
I am still waiting for Biometrics notice. Hopefully I will have it in my mailbox today (or soon).
And this means we are looking at actual GC issue dates around Mar 2008 by end of FY2012?Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Yes absolutely if we see 30K SOFAD then it is entirely possible. On Trackitt I see very few EB2 ROW approvals especially, maybe we need more observation time. The only thing that can cause any decline to SOFAD is the the I140 backlog (http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm...91&charttype=1) right now its 10K above last years levels, if any special attempts are made to reduce / clean it out. I believe that there is a 50-50 chance that even the next bulletin will see forward movement for EB2 I/C assuming that the 30K mark has been barely reached.Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
And is there any way to figure out how many of those are EB2/3 IC? ( I assume it includes both Eb2/EB3?)Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Teddy, how much forward movement you are expecting to see if 30K has not been reached?Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
The dashboard does not give that kind of visibility, you can assume even spread. But if the overall figure is higher then proportionately the figures maybe higher. Also probably since EB1 cases are taking longer there maybe higher proportion for these. Other that the I140 backlog there is nothing that should cause any significant SOFAD decline. On another note that is why it is easier to approve EB2 I/C cases because the I140 is already approved. A very key indicator will be when we start to see PWMB case approvals filed last month.Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
This is entirely speculative, however I would hope that atleast 5K is the buffer this is assuming that we really see 30K SOFAD; this would mean 2 more months of movement. Let’s wait to see the demand data in a few days this will help to solidify some of the theory to reality. If there are approvals in between that is cases that never make it to the demand data we will have to find some way to adjust.Quote:
Originally Posted by wantgcnow
Based on Spec's PERM spreadsheet there are around 35-36 K PERMs from Apr 15 2007 - Jul 01 2008. So if historical multiple of '1' holds good and assuming they want build a pipeline of 35 K then this seems posible.Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Soggadu Bhai,
My lawyer had sent docs to USCIS on 10/31. No receipt notices yet. When did you file yours?
Quote:
Originally Posted by soggadu
Hi Guys,
I am trying to fill the G-325A form but there is no enough Space For Last and Middle Name.
Can Guru's help me on how to fill this out???
Thanks!(lengthening reply because system said needs to be more than 10 characters)Quote:
Originally Posted by chagas
Can you handwrite it? print out with what you can fill in for other boxes, and then handwrite this part for the boxes in which your name does not fitQuote:
Originally Posted by GreenReddy
Else another idea, but this one should be confirmed with lawyer if it's legal to do and how to do it, you can indicate something like see attached, and in separate attached paper write down more properly. I would personally go with handwriting in block letters. Unless even that don't work because the name is ridiculously long, in which case I dont see any option other than indicating somehow to see another added attachment. But again, this is a very serious paper, and I would do this separate paper thing only if a proper lawyer says so.
Nishant usually posts these but today I am posting this.
Found it on CM's US Non-Immigrant Blogspot
This is what CM had to say for the December Visa Bulletin and EB2IC movement.
EB2-India & China Movement
Dates for EB2-IC has crossed into cut-off date of March 2008. It is impressive to see that Mr. Oppenheim is taking different approach this year and we should applaud him for his efforts. Since Mr. Oppenheim is taking different course for FY 2012, we believe that we should also keep our dogmatic approach to number crunching away for sometime until it make sense to do so. We should try to speculate what can happen in next few bulletins and successive months from their until summer 2012. We may be 'out to lunch' with this approach but can very well veer back to number crunching if this does not make sense in next few bulletins.
We believe retrogression is imminent in summer 2012; only exception will be HR 3012 if it will become a law by that time. We know that current movement upto March 2008 from 15 April 2007(Sep VB date) would easily bring demand that could end up using around 28K-30K visas from 140,000 available EB category visas. These are definitely in par with what we would usually see year-to-year with EB2-IC spillover + 5600 annual limits.
Question is so what can we expect from Mr. Oppenheim hereon? Firstly, we can say he has no clue that what real demand is due to such movement and lets presume he might not get hold off this until next two months ( that too only if he decides to persuade USCIS to tell him the numbers based on receipts issued).In reality, he may have to wait for real count on demand until April-May 2012 when such cases will start to become documentarily qualified and USCIS will start requesting for visa numbers.
That said, Mr. Oppenheim may not still be done with intaking more applications for this fiscal year. First, based on past year trend on visa use, monthly demand and estimations, EB2-IC had always moved around 11 months each year. By moving dates upto March 2008, he had just covered those bases. But still he does not know what would happen with HR 3012, whether it will pass with effective date of 01 September 2011. We know from our estimation on this bill, that cut-off dates until PD June 2008 would easily be current if this bill is passed. With approximation on fall-outs due to unforeseen reason, we can expect PD July-August 2008 to be current. If Mr. Oppenheim will stop such movement from next visa bulletin, he may miss that window on keeping cases ready for adjudication in case HR 3012 will become a law as he mentioned in previous bulletin that it can take 4-6 months to get these cases adjudicated. As I mentioned ,this is a speculation and I may be out to lunch but we believe in coming bulletin(s), EB2-IC dates may move all the way from June 2008-August 2008. Once, DOS will have enough applications in hand, it will be pretty straight forward for DOS to retrogress EB2-IC or EB2-ROW in summer 2012, whatever is appropriate based on fate of the bill.
Now who can expect Green Card for FY 2012? and how will dates retrogress? One thing to keep in mind with USCIS is that they will approve cases randomly usually based on month of filings, regardless of Priority Date. Now since most of the July 2007 backlog is cleared, I believe in 4 to 6 months when such cases will start becoming documentarily qualified, we will start to see approvals. Usually in such case, application filed at NSC will have upper hand compared to TSC filings due to vast difference in processing times. Generally during these months of the year, TSC will only approve 6000-8000 cases and NSC will approve around 10,000 cases consistently. So please do not be surprised if NSC case that become current in December bulletin will see approval before November bulletin cases. This is very common with USCIS. Approvals will be random. File your cases as perfect as possible so that you do not receive RFEs. In general, FY 2012 for EB2-IC will be exceptional with respect to approvals, with dates all over from August 2007 PD to March 2008 PD getting randomly approved. Once DOS will feel that enough visa numbers are used for EB2-IC based on EB1 and EB2-ROW demand, at that time dates may retrogress upto PD 01 Sep 07- 01 Nov 07. This is when we will start to see some huge numbers in demand data and we can go back to our number crunching and predictions based on calculations. For some time we believe VB movement and approvals at USCIS will be random.
This is the link for entire article.
http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...mber-2011.html
Here is an indirect way:Quote:
Originally Posted by GreenReddy
Scan the form as an Image. Then using a free image editor like Gimp or photoshop, type in the text. You can adjust the font to make the words fit in the form. As it is typed in, reading it will never be an issue.
thank you Dr. Jonty.
I in fact am not too much opposed to what CM is thinking. It is a plausible theory what he is saying.
There is another bill introduced in senate similar to HR3012, the S.1857, which looks like they have done so as to hasten up the process, so that in parallel Senate can also start thinking about this law change. It seems like then if House passes, then HR 3012 and S.1857 would be need to mixed and tweaked and again agreed upon by both house and senate. I am not expert in this, but common sense says, something is afoot, at least there is a lot of trying going on. Lets hope for the best.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jonty Rhodes