Veni
I agree w you otherwise. However as per spillover to EB3, I think the chances are absolutely ZERO that any visas will spill into EB3 from EB2.
Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
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Veni
I agree w you otherwise. However as per spillover to EB3, I think the chances are absolutely ZERO that any visas will spill into EB3 from EB2.
Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
200,000 review is really great accomplishment!. Also this happened in relatively short span(less than 7 months!).
Q,
Thanks for hosting such an informative immigration forum. I have been more of a listener but have greatly educated myself with immigration related matters through this forum. I feel quite a few of the users have provided better feedback and realistic estimates for EB2-I PD movement than many immigration lawyers. Last, but never least, this is one of the forums (if not the only forum) where I have seen friendly and respectful conversations, even when people have disagreed on different topics. I have almost stopped participating in discussion threads in trackitt (other than answering questions for which I clearly know the answer) as it inevitably boils down to a war of words between EB2 vs EB3 or India vs ROW or whatever.
Wishing the very best to all the users and to everyone going through the GC journey!
I second your thoughts.
Quote:
Originally Posted by pch053
Thanks to folks who have made this forum a very informative tool. This is probably the only forum that I have not found a single abusive post. All the posts have been very constructive. There have been difference of opinion at times.. but it was dealt in a very respectful manner.
Kudos to everybody..special thanks to Q, Spec, Veni, Teddy and others... who have contributed to this forum.
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Great site and wonderful people here. Thanks to Q, Teddy Koochu, Veni, Spec. and all others who are sharing their knowledge with all of us. This is my first post here though I visit this site many times a day. Congratulations to the moderators, administrator(s) and all others.
24-Hour Information
An automated recorded message system is available twenty-four hours a day, seven days a week to answer case status inquiries (603) 334-0700.
Note: You will need to have your I140 Receipt Number to check.
Only those cases for which CP option was given at the time of 485 will the details be available for the rest of us it will say that no record is available. I just verified the same I remember my attorney was a fan of I485 v/s CP but its good to call and verify.
In 2008 (Q4), they seem to have advanced dates by 2 years before retrogressing in 2009 fiscal. Why would they have done this? It's not like they didnt have the inventory already...
This usually happens to clear the CP cases by DOS...Quote:
Originally Posted by vishnu
I agree. It might also be that they want to clear the CP cases with 2008 PD in the next few months. That might very well be the reason that NVC cases with late 2007 or early 2008 PDs are getting emails for paying the application fee. One difference with 2008 though is at that time the I485 pending inventory was not public (if I remember correctly), even though USCIS might have known internally the pending demands, etc. Look forward to comments from others!
vishnu,Quote:
Originally Posted by vishnu
Actually, I don't think USCIS did have an Inventory at that time, so DOS were essentially in the dark about potential cases from USCIS.
The first published USCIS Inventory didn't appear until August 2009.
One theory suggests that the events of 2008 (and later in 2009) were the final straw for DOS, who then insisted that USCIS compile a proper Inventory by Preference, Chargeability and PD.
Since the first Inventory was made available, EB2-I has never retrogressed, nor have we seen startling advances, inconsistent with the known numbers.
I don't think that is a coincidence.
Spec - that makes a lot of sense. Thanks for the color...
The only difference now is that even the visibile USCIS inventory will likely be depleted at some point in this Q4 spill over (at least very good chance of this happening). So how DOS proceeds from there remains to be seen.
By Clearing CP cases you mean giving GC visas?Quote:
Originally Posted by pch053
If yes... Why would they give GC to a PD 2008 CP when AOS PD 2006/2007 would at best get only EAD and wait for GC number? That would not be fair..
Yes.. it would be very interesting to see how DOS advances dates... since there is no precedent/situation like this in the past.Quote:
Originally Posted by vishnu
They may choose to follow the same approach that they took for FB (family) last year. Advance it by 1 or 2 years and then retrogess.
I am hoping instead of picking a random date, they make it current for 1 or 2 months and then retrogess. This will help many people including me to file EAD/AP.
Advantage for DOS/USCIS is that they will have enough demand visibility that they can work on for the next 3 or 4 years atleast. In addition they can get all the fees for 485/EAD/AP/EAD Renewels in advance.
S
I think the same issue of approving I485 without strictly going by PDs has happened in the past when the PDs moved by a couple of years. In Aug - Sep'08, I have seen EB2-I cases with 2006 PD getting approved whereas there were still many pending cases from 2004. It will be ideal, if USCIS opens the floodgates (i.e. advances the PDs by few years or makes it current) but still approve I485s based on the PDs. This will enable everyone to apply for EAD/AP and it will also be fair as people will be getting their GCs roughly based on the order in which it was submitted.
Because of the same reason everybdy was current in 2007... CIS not providing up to date information to DOS...instead of wasting the numbers, they progress it to clear the CP's as well as get demand information... as spec mentioned it didnt happen after that as CIS was providing the needed info...Quote:
Originally Posted by skpanda
Did anyone give this a thought?
EB5 Spills up to EB1 and the 12K we are receiving now is a sum of available EB1 SO and projected EB5 spill-up (~8k) during last quarter?
So effectively the SO from EB1 could actually be only 4k? and there won't be any Spill-Up from EB5 in the last quarter?
.Quote:
Originally Posted by pch053
As you are mentioning here if they open PDs and flood gates same situation will arise like you saying in your statement itself down the line 3 months there may be case pending for 2004/05 but some case from 07/08 can be approved. :-(
you answered it yourself... EB5 --> EB1 happens in beginning of 4 qtr...but the 12K is from EB1 itself as per CO (charles Opexxxx, i dont know the correct last name)... 12K is left over in EB1 after 2 qtr's and no talk on EB5 so it has to wait till 4 qtr... relax and enjoy the ride on the high tide....Quote:
Originally Posted by GlimmerOfHope
Quote:
Originally Posted by mpurna77
I do not know if someone shared this before but you will be interested in this reply from Ron. Someone asked about processing time with TSC. I found it interesting.
Quote:
Re: Processing time for I-485 in TSC goes up
I have never taken those processing times very seriously because they bear almost no relationship to reality. Statistically, about 89 per cent of all EB green card applications go the AOS route. Assuming that we have about 148,000 EB numbers available, this means that the USCIS share is close to 132,000 EB adjustments, with the rest being handled by the Department of State. Even though the U.S. Consulate General in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, but itself processes about 120,000 VERY DIFFICULT green card applications each year, the USCIS rarely exceeds 110,000 AOS approvals.
Using these numbers as an example, if it appears that the USCIS will only process about 110,000 AOS cases, the State Department knows that they need to make up the difference (in this case, 22,000 EB cases) through overseas consular processing. Since they can't get the USCIS to speed up, and they are pretty much current with their own processing, the only way to avoid wasting visas is to make another 22,000 applicants eligible to receive visas before September 30th. The only way to do this is to temporarily advance cutoff dates to make 22,000 more people eligible. Once they have done this, and issued enough visas to exhaust the quota, then then have to roll back the cutoff dates to where they should be.
For this reason, every summer we see a temporary artificial advance in cutoff dates, followed by a retrogression in October.
Friends there are several news reports to suggest that EB5 is being marketed very aggressively. They have added premium processing for this category as well. So to have spillover from EB5 earlier than the last quarter looks highly unlikely. I believe that the 8K that we are expecting from EB5 may well be divided between the last quarter bulletins.Quote:
Originally Posted by soggadu
Are you sure the Premium processing is already added?Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
They proposed this on 19th May. I think they are seeking comments by 17th June 2011. Even if they favor this option, i think it will take few months to implement this.
Link to USCIS proposal:
http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Outreach/...al-18May11.pdf
This has been discussed numerous time before. Initially all of us feared if this is the case. But after lots of number crunching people are comfortable that EB5 is not factored in those 12K. Additionally people think that probably there is another 4K in EB1 that might come down to EB2.
Quote:
Originally Posted by GlimmerOfHope
I agree Teddy. But EB5 doesn't have much of a pipeline and howsoever one markets the fact is that this 0.5 million investment in a not-so-financially-attractive area is not a great value proposition to somebody who already has 0.5M investable money. As a result we should see at least 5-6K SOFAD from EB5.Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Thanks for the correction, looks like they are asking for comments. Looks like that no changes will happen by late Aug so we should get all the SOFAD from EB5. Lets hope for the best.Quote:
Originally Posted by skpanda
Q why bet at 6K for EB5 why not 8K something similar to last year because fundamentally nothing has changed. With regards EB1 by inventory difference only 9 out of the 12K has been allocated and then in the coming months also since there are no fundamental changes we can expect more.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
As you say they are actively working to expedite EB5s by softening and bending rules. So assuming they are able to give GCs and clear whatever pipeline they have ... (which I believe is not more than 2K) then subtracting that 2K from the 8K SOFAD last year gives you 6K. But I guess that's as far worse as it can get.Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
I do not think the premium processing will happen in FY2011 (since they are just proposing now.. it will take several months to implement it).Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Looking at historic data.. i think we should be able to get 8K... but i agree with Q - lets have a worst case 6K... and best case would be 8k.
More the better for all of us!
Hello all!
All I can say is WOW! I have just gone through this whole thread and it's amazing. Thank you so much for taking the time to do all this analysis and calculations. It helps people like me who's life decisions are sadly dependent on GC, priority date, VB etc. etc...
Keep up the good work! It is highly appreciated :)
skpanda,Quote:
Originally Posted by skpanda
If you think about the relative splits of CP/AOS and the different processes employed by DOS and USCIS, CP cases with later PDs are almost certainly going to get approved, whilst AOS cases wouldn't necessarily be.
I'll use theoretical numbers to keep it simple.
If there were a possible combined 10,000 CP/AOS EB2 cases made Current by Cut Off Date movement, then 9,800 would be AOS and only 200 would be CP. That isn't many cases for DOS to process in a month and the PDs of the CP cases would advance rapidly, even when dealt with strictly in PD order.
Additionally, all the CP cases would be processable immediately, since no I-485 is required and the NVC would have previously sent out fee requests etc (in fact everything leading up to the final interview notice.)
In the DOS process, I believe a visa is allocated to the case when the interview notice is generated. Upon successful interview the visa is issued, otherwise it is returned to DOS for reuse.
So, even if the dates retrogressed before the actual interview, the visa would remain available to issue. Even if that were not true, organizing an interview date is far quicker than the USCIS adjudication process for nearly 50 times more cases.
Contrast this to the USCIS process.
Firstly the applicant has to submit an I-485 application, no earlier than the start of the month. They then have to wait for this to be adjudicated, which can take several months.
Finally, at the point of approval, USCIS request the visa for the case. By this point, it is quite possible that the dates have retrogressed and a visa is no longer available to issue.
Even for cases already with USCIS, it takes a lot more approvals to move through the PDs because the numbers are so much larger.
Especially if DOS are trying to build a pipeline and then retrogress the dates, CP cases with later PDs stand a significantly greater chance of being approved within the window when the PD is Current, because they are already in the system, most of the processing has already been done and there are lower numbers to be dealt with.
AOS cases might have to wait up to a year longer for approval, when the dates next advance again.
My thoughts anyway and why CP might have significant advantages in some situations.
This might be a stupid question..but I was wondering...
If the PD becomes current, for eg. in September and there is retrogression in October. What happens then? Will they definitely process the GC or is the processing delayed because of retrogression in the following months?
The reason I ask is because I'm EB2 I , PD April 30, 2007, I-140 approved, have filed I-485 and hoping I am current in September....
monica welcome.
Teddy had few months back talked about this scenario. We have good reasons to believe that they will assign view in September but the actual approval might arrive in Oct.
As per retrogression, the best guess today is that if the dates move at 3 months per month for next 3 months then there won't be any retrogression. If they move faster there will be retro..
Quote:
Originally Posted by Monica12
If the dates move for 3 months in the next 3 months, then EB2-I PD will reach July'07. Do you think there is a possibility for that? I personally will be very happy if that happens (since my PD is July'07) but that might be stretching things a bit. But, who knows what the scenario will be if there are still more spillover left from EB1!
Our prediction is Mar-Apr 2007. So even if it moves to Jul 07... it will not retrogress in Oct since in Oct there will be another 3K available towards 2012.Quote:
Originally Posted by pch053
Thanks Q, the reason I got confused was because of Spectator's explaination. I always assumed that once PD becomes current, the GC was a done deal. I didn't think AOS processing takes upto a year if the case is not pre-adjucated ( I mean there's no real way of knowing if it is or not).
So, once PD becomes current and even if there is retrogression in later months, it won't delay the GC. Correct?
BTW, I really hope it moves for 3 months in the next 3 months :)
So, with PD April 30, 2007, even if I can't make it this fiscal year, I might have a chance in Q1 of 2012.....Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I have been reading so much on this and was under the impression that things might stall and the next movement for EB2 I is likely only in Q4 of 2012.
Thanks again!
No GC is not a done deal ever until you have it in your hand.
Having said that in your particular case, more than likely you are preadj. Only the PWMBs will have to wait until the case moves through all checks.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Monica12
If you miss it by a week then yes. But if you miss it even by a month ... that's diffuclt to say since there will also be pwmbs and portings plus aprox 500 cases per week between India and China. And since the annual quota is only3K and spillover doesn't start until Q4 ...it could be an excruciating wait. But lets hope not!Quote:
Originally Posted by Monica12
Crystal clear now! Thanks Q.
Hoping and praying it's this year :):)
If you miss it by a week then yes. But if you miss it even by a month ... that's diffuclt to say since there will also be pwmbs and portings plus aprox 500 cases per week between India and China. And since the annual quota is only3K and spillover doesn't start until Q4 ...it could be an excruciating wait. But lets hope not![/QUOTE]
Monica,Quote:
Originally Posted by Monica12
Sorry if I confused you.
It is not that the I-485 adjudication takes a year (although it may take several months).
The Cut Off Date in the VB has to be later than your PD for 2 crucial parts of the process:
a) To be able to submit the I-485 and have it accepted by USCIS.
b) For the I-485 to be approved when it is adjudicated.
As we have seen before, dates can be Current to allow (a), but then retrogress. The final approval cannot happen until the dates are Current again. For July 2007 filers, this has been several years already.
The (rare) exception to this is if the visa number was allocated when the PD was Current, but the approval date is shortly after the dates have retrogressed.
So, yes, subsequent retrogression can delay the GC, if the Cut Off Dates retrogress to a date equal to or earlier than your PD.
Especially for new filers, if the dates are retrogressed shortly after the filing date, they may well find that they can submit their I-485, but it can't be approved until much later in the year, because EB2-I only has 2.8k visas initially in any FY. Only when sufficient spillover numbers become available, can the I-485 be approved.
Especially if DOS want to build a pipeline of future cases, this is a distinct possibility for many filers with later PDs.
I hope that hasn't confused you even more. :)
Thanks for the clarification Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
No, you didn't confuse me. I get it now :)
I filed my I-485 last minute in the 2007 fiasco, so according to Q , I'm most likely already pre-adjudicated (my online case status shows a SLUD in 2010 too, hoping that's what it is). This means when my PD becomes current, the GC will be approved(fingers crossed).
The retrogression is more of a problem for new I-485 filers ( that's what happened to me in 2007)
Thanks again!!!
Kanmani
The perm number includes EB2 and EB3
So in 2006, the EB2 : 3 ratio for India was closer to 50% huh. 25703 Perm approvals x 90% (10% rejection at I-140) *50% x 2 to include dependents gets us to the 20k for EB2 I485. Now, it appears the ratio is closer to 80%.