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Don't miss the numbers from 12th October 2009 to 15th January 2010. We have about 3300 total applicants who were the part of the forgotten lot. If USCIS is capable of processing these 3000+ souls in March, then there is a high probability of the Eb2 final dates beyond May 1st 2010 in the next bulletin or 2. But again RFE's and responses in time would be another crucial factor.Quote:
Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly
Quote:
Originally Posted by Moveon
It is funny to people give credit to new admin for the date movement in VB. It is Trump admin which restricted new family and DV GCs last year to protect American citizens and legal immigrants which resulted VB date movement. Dems do not care of about legal immigrants, they want illegals for their vote bank. I am sad to see how brainwashed people are.
Attachment 1776Quote:
Originally Posted by prabakarb
Not taking that....
Yep, that's true. Hopefully we will start seeing sign of more GCs being issued now that the crush of the applications has hopefully subsided. I know a lot are still waiting for receipts. Would not be a bad time to have a Check-in with Charlie to get a feel for what their outlook is for the rest of the fiscal is since we are done with Q1-Q2.Quote:
Originally Posted by AceMan
For any politically(left , right, center or whatever) motivated post we have a separate thread now. Please use that.
LOL! I thought that too.Quote:
Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly
Turbulent_Dragonfly/vsivarama: I expected the mocking but, you would have disputed what I said if I said something wrong, you cannot do that as those were the facts, it is not a bait. You can mock all you want, but if you want to me ignorant, that is your prerogative.Quote:
Originally Posted by vsivarama
suninphx: You are right, we can use the different forum for these conversation, but someone started in this forum so I replied.
Quote:
Originally Posted by vsivarama
thank you.Quote:
Originally Posted by Transformer
I digress but want to comment anyway: It's shameful that people still use this guys services; he's clearly one who wanted us to be stuck in backlogs so he and his cabal can continue to milk us for decades. We desis have a very short memory and that's a dangerous thing - no one should use his services.Quote:
Originally Posted by idliman
sorry for the rant, back to the topic.
I have the same impression about him. I don't think one needs to file another 485. Looks like he wants to earn his filing fees.Quote:
Originally Posted by smuggymba
Idliman - Maverick's PD is Sep'2010 so with a EB2 filing there may be no EAD / AP yet, just in case you want to present a alternate path.Quote:
Originally Posted by idliman
Few questions related to SSN. Can you please explain and advise based on your experience?
So we opted for SSN when applying for EAD in Oct 2020.
1. When do dependents receive SSN? Let's say EAD is approved sometime in March, when we can expect SSN?
2. Once EAD is approved, is there any action item pertaining to SSN on us? Do we need to go to SSN office?
3. Can SSN be used for tax filing right away? To be specific, if SSN is issued in March 2021 then can it be used for Tax year 2020 filing? (PS: used ITIN in prior years).
4. Again to use SSN on tax filing (instead of ITIN)... what do we need to do?
5. If let's say, we use SSN for Tax Year 2020 and that somehow put us in an income threshold that provides benefit from Covid stimulus.... would that harm from public charge perspective?
Great News from March Bulletin.
Folks considering all the lock boxes are not opened and not all applications are not receipted yet, how many months of additional processing time it will add once your FAD is current, since USCIS is still backlogged receipting the applications.
Also what abt mandatory interview how much time it will add to get GC once FAD is current.
I would still wait for the magic word from CO to understand the movement. With EB1I moving 7 months, they are setting it to be current in the next 2 bulletins. Once EB1I is current EB2I should zoom ahead. When will it happen? May or later. If it is much later, where is USCIS going to get capacity to process GCs? Already most interviews are cancelled for EB. But some higherup from JB admin should demand results from USCIS for it to change its mentality from enforcement to benefits/service mindset. It is definitely possible, looking at how fast they issued GCs in 2012 or so.Quote:
Originally Posted by srimurthy
If you remember, the DF was set at 15MAY11 in Oct for EB2I. You can guess the number of people from May2010 who have down-ported to EB3I. So anyone before that time has a good chance. EB3I is a sure bet for Sep2010 (EB3I is already at 01JUL2010). But will down-porting help? In the worst case for EB2I, lets say Sep2010 waits till next year to be FA current (with another huge spillover from FB). You may want to look at the current trends to decide.
I received SSN for my daughter as soon as EAD received (After 5 days) .I called SSN office and they told me , no need to come to SSN office( you can call nearby SSN office and check). Used for tax filing for 2020 and got refund also.Quote:
Originally Posted by aGCHopefull
Not claimed Covid stimulus which is eligible for new SSN
Take expert advise on public charge
I want to present a story which I am sure lot of you must have heard.Quote:
Originally Posted by idliman
As a sociological experiment, 10 monkeys were placed in a large cage. High up at the top of the cage, beyond the reach of the monkeys, were a bunch of bananas. Underneath the bananas was a ladder leading to the bananas. The monkeys hadn?t been fed for 12 hours and were extremely hungry. The monkeys immediately spot the bananas and the strongest begins to climb the ladder. As he does, however, a slight electric shock keeps him from ascending the ladder. At the same time that the monkey climbing the ladder gets a shock, the other monkeys on the floor are sprayed with water. The monkey on the ladder scrambles off and all 10 hungry monkeys sit for a time on the floor. Soon, the temptation of the bananas is too great and another monkey begins to climb the ladder. Again, the monkey is met with a slight electric shock as well as the other monkeys being sprayed. Over time, the monkeys learn not to go up the ladder. Now one monkey is removed and a new monkey is introduced to the cage. Spotting the bananas, he heads towards the ladder. The other monkeys, knowing his intention, cut him off and beat him. A second monkey is removed; he is one of the original 10 monkeys and is replaced with a new monkey. Again, the new monkey heads towards the ladder and, again, the other monkeys cut him off and beat him ? including the monkey who had never been up the ladder.
By the end of the experiment, none of the original monkeys were left. Despite none of them ever experiencing the slight shock, they had all learned not to climb up the ladder for the bananas.
I still don't know. That's how things are done around here.
But you cannot fault anyone. No one in the right frame of mind would have guessed that the some of the 2012 folks (15JAN2010+) would still be waiting for their FA dates to be current after 9 years. Before you blink, you lose quite a few years in backlog. Had it been DT admin, I would have honestly told everyone to try porting.
Was just catching up since yday. This is perfect. Let's not entertain trolls here. Complete waste of time. Those ppl. have trackitt just for that!Quote:
Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly
Thanks idliman for your insights!
I think folks who have PD in 2010 are going to live with this confusion until they get greened one way or other. May be the next April visa bulletin will provide trend on forward movement and give us better idea on how things going to pan out this year.
Filing Date is not being accepted for March, only FAD. Some may have missed out unfortunately, but positive news for those who got in to be honest because it would mean that they will have more processing capacity to approve I-485s rather than be stuck on initial receipting forever. This could be what they do for the rest of the fiscal which will portend well for spillover visa usage.
Lot of people who are FD current in EB3 from April to June 30th are yet to get their receipts. It is going to be interesting to watch how things work for them.Quote:
Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly
I need your opinion, My PD is EB-2 28 Feb 2011 and filed 485 on Oct 23, 2020. Still no fingerprints.
With the current date movement for EB3, would it be wise to start the downgrade process from EB2-EB3? Or wait for a few more VB to see how the trend is for EB3 and then start the process? My company's attorney mentioned that if the PD in EB3 becomes current, then we can start the downgrade process, but I feel waiting for that to happen may cost me faster GC if EB2 does not catch up to my PD and EB3 retrogresses and 140 approval takes longer these days. I would like to hear all of your opinions, Yes or No!
Would appreciate your responses.
I think most of the people who filed in October got receipts but there is a huge backlog for biometrics. It's definitely interesting to watch if USCIS continue to move the FA dates despite not many approvable cases after April 2010. Unless they speed up biometrics, waive interviews and increase processing speed, I think they will waste lot of visas.Quote:
Originally Posted by AceMan
Maybe those people will directly get their GC instead of EAD/AP once they do their biometrics :)Quote:
Originally Posted by AceMan
prabakarb , please be more informed before making a comment. The Extra 120K was an unintended consequence of the order to close down the consulates. After the first VB, the trump administration quickly throttled the movement of dates and in its last VB allowed only a 2 day movement. Many of us mailed our members of congress and I got a response from two of them saying that they will look into it . Give credit when its due and plz do your research. Yes, democrats have leaned towards undocumented workers while republicans before Trump did more for EB. The previous admin hated most immigrants . Just look at the EAD/AP renewal times quadrupling under Trump . My AP is pending for the last 8 months. The current VB does makes me current, so will hope for the best.Quote:
Originally Posted by prabakarb
DOS moved the EB1 filing date to current for all countries this bulletin. What is the point of advancing the filing date when USCIS is not going to accept it?:confused:Quote:
Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly
Yeah, pretty good observation. If they were confident that there are not many numbers between Aug 2020 and now in EB1, they could have simply made it current in FAD. I don't know if EB1 to EB2 spillover is immediately triggered and *has* to be implemented as soon as EB1 is current in FAD, so maybe they are trying to control that?Quote:
Originally Posted by iamdeb
I understand that Vertical spillovers will be more for EB2 and EB3 will only Horizontal spillover.
But the number of applicants in EB2-I and EB3-I queue between January 2010 and May 2011 also have a ratio of 4:1 at least
So why do experts think EB2-I will race past EB3-I in the near future ?
Worst/Best case scenario is EB2-I and EB3-I will keep moving ahead at same pace.
Am I missing something here?
Honestly, I won't even bother replying mate. It was a troll at best!Quote:
Originally Posted by Moveon
I don't think the ratio is 4:1. Its probably lesser than that due to downgrading.Quote:
Originally Posted by inspired_p
inspired - I have done this for a living and I can tell you with certainty that modelling this has been incredibly difficult because of the sensitivity of the forecasting model.Quote:
Originally Posted by inspired_p
Ever heard of chaos theory - the proverbial butterfly in pacific causing storm half way across the world?
The forecasting of backlog reduction is - although not as bad - but is quite bad. The reason is very simple - the demand and is huge and supply is limited. So any tiny variations on the demand side can make one queue move faster than other quite easily.
I know this does not help you get exact answer you are looking for. But at least it tells you that any answer you get from anybody is going to be unreliable.
Yeah it looks like they will keep pace with each other with EB3 running a few months ahead until May 2011. After May 2011, there are going to be thousands of downgrades to EB3 until Jan 1-2015, so it's going to be a muddled mess with people jumping back and forth between queues depending on what is more advantageous at that point of time. But at least people through the end of 2014 will be free agents in a couple of months and will no longer be tied to their employers and situations. They will happily take that compared to the 2009-2010 folks who have waited an agonizingly long time.Quote:
Originally Posted by inspired_p
Hello All,
Sorry to hijack a very lively thread, but I have question and wasnt sure which thread to post to:
Situation: Wife, who is on H1, is coming off long term disability, is putting in her papers and applying for H4 COS this week.
Since she has been getting disability checks, would it become a problem when these checks are submitted to USCIS along with I-539 application (as proof of employment)?
My GC attorney suggested we dont submit them and see what happens! In any other situation I would have said lol, but this is a bit pressing. Maybe he makes sense? what do you guys think?
Really appreciate your thoughts and do move this post where you deem fit. Thanks!
I don't see any reason whatsoever to mention the LTD checks. Why? Because they are NOT government assistance. You have paid for that LTD through your paycheck. And when the event happened you cashed your benefit. So I think your lawyer is right.Quote:
Originally Posted by bangaloreboy
Thanks Q for your response,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I-539 has a section that asks if you were employed since last admitted or granted an extension or CoS and to provide weekly income details and such.
Since your latest pay were all LTD checks, should we or shouldn’t submit them as proof of employment but on LTD?
If it’s part of your employment benefits, which it is, is there a harm in submitting them?
Attachment 1777Quote:
Originally Posted by inspired_p
The above is a tweet which I got from here and it was shared by David J Bier.
For calculation take the full year for 2010 and 2011. EB2 has about 45,000 applicants for this period and 11,500 for EB3. Since this list was released in March 2020, we can be sure all these numbers would have started to be greened only from FY 2021.
I have been a strong proponent of short term gain for EB2. Lot of people think that I do that to mislead people because my date is Feb 2011 in EB3. I have no intention to correct or change the way people think about my vested interest in this. I would rather put the analysis and my interpretation here.
The Eb1 movement over the last one year is a very key factor in me hedging the bet on EB2 for FY 21. EB1 India due to the backlog had their demand halved from April 2018 to March 2020. Eb1 ROW got current around same time when embassies closed and it resulted in spillover getting applied to EB1 India and China from last quarter of 2020.
Eb3-ROW had some huge demand at the start of FY 2020 and it was backlogged just before corona induced shutdown happened. It was backlogged for the entire FY 20 since then and returned to current only in the beginning of FY21.
EB2-ROW was having a good demand through out 2020 and it was expected to have cut off some time before Corona and it did not happen. However the high demand ensure EB2 I got only the bare minimum by looking at the date movement.
For 2021, unlike any previous years for the exception of 2005 we are getting about 262,000 for EB. The motivation factor is this should be a massive windfall to Indian backlog with the consular closings till March, and absolutely no demand from world wide. As we have seen so far for 6 months EB1 is now current and there is no demand in this FY for this category. We have already seen even with a 4:1 demand EB2 I moved more than EB3 I in the March bulletin.
This intensity is expected to continue for next 3-4 months at about 4 months movement where I am expecting EB2 in July bulletin to reach May 2011. This should be the motivation for the EB2 guys, instead of trying to jump to EB3 thinking you are going to get your GC an hour before. You already waited more than a decade so just wait it out instead of going to lawyers who are filing 2nd I-485 and looting more money out of you.
before downgrading it is 15308:6677 for eb2:eb3 in 2010 , 6500 approx falls under eb2 May 2010 who will not downport, rest 9000 people atleast 6000 moved to EB3 it becomes 10000:12000 for 2010 EB2:EB3
Ok - I thought you were thinking of volunteering the information. If there is a specific question asking you about your income then you should be truthful. Disability pay is considered income and so yes it should be included. Again it all depends how they have phrased the question. Are they asking for W2 income or generally any income?Quote:
Originally Posted by bangaloreboy
In either case - I don't see how this can in any way be harmful. I know your lawyer doesn't recommend. So I am puzzled honestly. Why would a lawyer knowingly ask you to not answer a question truthfully?
My take is - disability is not public burden. You or your employer has paid insurance premiums or social security for it.
p.s. - LTD is basically an insurance and there is a contract that binds the provider and the beneficiary. So this is classic old contract law. Immigration status does not affect contract law. Honestly you would be paid LTD even if you were an illegal immigrant.
So do you think EB2 FA dates will cross EB3 this year?Quote:
Originally Posted by H1b2006
I believe EB2 and EB3 would be always 4-6 months apart until they catch up May 2011 timeline and then will play TAG afterwards depending on no of individuals downport/interfile
Hello All,
Been a silent spectator for loong time now watching Q, spec, kanmani, idliman et all squaring off with civility and agreeing to disagree where they don't see eye to eye. This forum is worth its weight in gold. I lost my username/password and hence created a brand new one now. Hope to learn more and maybe share my 2 cents going forward. May we all be greened soon. Cheers!
I had a quick question to ask the gurus. My situation is as below:
EB2-I, Priority date: 2011/march/31.
485,131 765 - filed Oct 2020.
Any calculation when FA might reach 03/31/2011 ?
Thanks in advance! Mods - pls move to the appropriate forum once answered.