EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

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Originally Posted by suninphx

Yeah agree. You know why I hate you because most of the times you are right :)

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Thanks, I greatly appreciate your response. Actually unless we thrash all the assumptions we don't get to good figures. Lemme tell you your inputs were very helpful in a positive way. Once again thanks for all your time, this is a collective effort in every way. Lemme tell you something last year I was the most optimistic one in the beginning based on Trackitt, I will research this month's Trackitt and post. This thing keeps changing faster than the weather. Best wishes to you and good luck to all.

I just looked at pending inventory reports of October, 2010 and October 2011 and noticed that year 2010 started with pending inventory count of 168,846 (All country, all types) and year 2012 started with pending inventory count of 139,563. This means year 2012 started with significantly less number of pending I-485s as compared to year 2011. Will this have any impact on the priority dates movement for this year?

Additionally, I looked at trackitt numbers and noticed that there are 101 I-485 applications filed in October 2011 vs 125 applications filed in October 2010. This also suggests that Year 2012 started on a good note.

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Thanks, I greatly appreciate your response. Actually unless we thrash all the assumptions we don't get to good figures. Lemme tell you your inputs were very helpful in a positive way. Once again thanks for all your time, this is a collective effort in every way. Lemme tell you something last year I was the most optimistic one in the beginning based on Trackitt, I will research this month's Trackitt and post. This thing keeps changing faster than the weather. Best wishes to you and good luck to all.

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Teddy, So what is your conservative estimate for the movements in Dec, Jan and Feb bulletins (assuming that they would move forward based on CO's recent statements). Thanks in advance for your inputs.

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Originally Posted by vedu

I just looked at pending inventory reports of October, 2010 and October 2011 and noticed that year 2010 started with pending inventory count of 168,846 (All country, all types) and year 2012 started with pending inventory count of 139,563. This means year 2012 started with significantly less number of pending I-485s as compared to year 2011. Will this have any impact on the priority dates movement for this year?

Additionally, I looked at trackitt numbers and noticed that there are 101 I-485 applications filed in October 2011 vs 125 applications filed in October 2010. This also suggests that Year 2012 started on a good note.

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vedu,
Let's look at the inventory data from a different angle,since EB3&EW is not getting or yield any spillover and EB2IC movement purely depend on SOFAD let's exclude them for comparision.

------------- 2010 ------2011------ % Change(incr.)
EB1--------- 7,595 ------14,072 -----85.28%
EB2ROWMP 9,915 ------11,520------16.19%
EB3 ---------N/A --------N/A ---------N/A
EB4---------294----------643---------118.71%
EB5---------23-----------163---------608.70%
EW----------N/A --------N/A ---------N/A
Total--------17,827------26,398------48.08%

So FY2012 started with an increase of ~8.5K (or ~48%) compared to FY2011, which could impact total SOFAD for this year.

Veni,

I absolutely agree with your numbers, but what amazes me is the total number of applications (139,563). This number suggests that they do not even have a one year's worth of quota, which is 140,000. I am sure that new applications will keep coming. Going forward, it will be interesting to see the rate of new I-485s coming into the system.

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Originally Posted by veni001

vedu,
Let's look at the inventory data from a different angle,since EB3&EW is not getting or yield any spillover and EB2IC movement purely depend on SOFAD let's exclude them for comparision.

------------- 2010 ------2011------ % Change(incr.)
EB1--------- 7,595 ------14,072 -----85.28%
EB2ROWMP 9,915 ------11,520------16.19%
EB3 ---------N/A --------N/A ---------N/A
EB4---------294----------643---------118.71%
EB5---------23-----------163---------608.70%
EW----------N/A --------N/A ---------N/A
Total--------17,827------26,398------48.08%

So FY2012 started with an increase of ~8.5K (or ~48%) compared to FY2011, which could impact total SOFAD for this year.

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Originally Posted by ghav369

Hello, I have just registered to this site. Have been following this thread for the last two days and am impressed with the depth of the discussions regarding predictions about EB2, EB3 dates. Also noticed that quite a few members are active on the site. All the discussions interest me because I'm on EB2 and my PD is 02/10. Because of the positive moment in the last few months, I've been awaiting the Dec visa bulletin. According to the current trend, I think I would be eligible to apply for 485 in about a year. I know I'm being very optimistic, Any Comments or predictions about 02/10 PD?

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I think it's highly unlikely 2010s will file next year. Most of FY 2013 will be remainder of 2008 and some of 2009. But who knows what goes on in the mind of CO.

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Originally Posted by vedu

Veni,

I absolutely agree with your numbers, but what amazes me is the total number of applications (139,563). This number suggests that they do not even have a one year's worth of quota, which is 140,000. I am sure that new applications will keep coming. Going forward, it will be interesting to see the rate of new I-485s coming into the system.

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vedu,
USCIS dash board show significant backlog in i40 (EB1, EB2ROW-M-P) and i526(EB5), in-addition to significant increase in PERM filings/approvals in FY2011(Q1-Q3).

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Originally Posted by ghav369

Hello, I have just registered to this site. Have been following this thread for the last two days and am impressed with the depth of the discussions regarding predictions about EB2, EB3 dates. Also noticed that quite a few members are active on the site. All the discussions interest me because I'm on EB2 and my PD is 02/10. Because of the positive moment in the last few months, I've been awaiting the Dec visa bulletin. According to the current trend, I think I would be eligible to apply for 485 in about a year. I know I'm being very optimistic, Any Comments or predictions about 02/10 PD?

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Originally Posted by vizcard

I think it's highly unlikely 2010s will file next year. Most of FY 2013 will be remainder of 2008 and some of 2009. But who knows what goes on in the mind of CO.

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Agree, If we look at Calender Year totals for INDIA, CY2008 got more PERM approvals compared to CY2007.

The USCIS dashboard has two months lag. Also, in case of ROW, I-140 and I-485 are allowed to be filed concurrently. So, hopefully, the significant I-140 backlog showing up on the dashboard is already counted in the October, 2011 inventory report (?) Regarding significant increase in PERM filing/approvals, that itself may have caused significant I-140 backlog, which again hopefully is already counted in the October, 2011 inventory report. Thus, the 48% increase in I-485s you calculated makes sense.

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Originally Posted by veni001

vedu,
USCIS dash board show significant backlog in i40 (EB1, EB2ROW-M-P) and i526(EB5), in-addition to significant increase in PERM filings/approvals.

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Friends following are the Trackitt comparisons for 2011.
EB2 ROW 2010 - 25
EB2 ROW 2011 - 63
EB1 (A+B+C) - 2010: 8 + 6 + 5 = 19
EB1 (A+B+C) - 2011: 3 + 2 + 20 = 25
Last year’s SOFAD was 30K lets split it as EB1 - 12K, EB5 - 6K, Regular Cap - 5.5K, EB2 ROW 6.5
- EB2 ROW usage is drastically down by 60%. This could really be good for SOFAD. If this trend continues
Then EB2 could well be providing very significant SOFAD.
Let’s assume decline to be 30% instead of 60%. As smaller figures do not mean smaller scale down literally they should be factored.
EB2 ROW SOFAD will be - (40-5.5) - 70/100 (40-5.5-6.5) = 34.5 - 19.6 = 15K.
- EB1 is overall in the same range down by 25%, however looking at the figures looks like the Kazarian memo is playing havoc with EB1 A & B diminishing and EB1C growing 4 fold.
Looks like EB1 should maintain the 12K SOFAD. It’s a must that the Kazarian trend is maintained or ROW decline should compensate it.
Despite high 485 inventory and high 140 figures the Trackitt trend for October is highly encouraging. This is very early days however last year this early lead was very correct. With this early trend I believe that last year’s SOFAD level may well be maintained but let’s make note that it’s an early trend and Trackitt represents only a small sample of data but the great advantage is that its well organized. For October yet another explanation could be that CO is giving away EB1, EB2 ROW and EB5 excess to EB2 I/C on a monthly basis if it is literally true.
If last year’s SOFAD level is maintained then everyone in 2007 will have GC in hand by Sep 2012, however the other indicators suggest lesser movement than this. To take the Trackitt trend concrete another 2 months of observation is required. The agencies IMHO must maintain 2 months as a buffer. Let’s all hope the Trackitt trend holds.

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Originally Posted by yesman

Teddy, So what is your conservative estimate for the movements in Dec, Jan and Feb bulletins (assuming that they would move forward based on CO's recent statements). Thanks in advance for your inputs.

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These are just my personal beliefs. The movement will happen only in the Dec bulletin because definitely a wave is coming by I140 and I485.
The date range could be 01-JAN-2008 to 01-MAR-2008 (Date From CO).
Actual approvals i.e. GC in hand will range from 01-NOV-2007 to 31st Dec 2007 . The Trackitt trend indicates the higher end for now otherwise with the wave of I140 and I485 it may well be the lower end.

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Friends following are the Trackitt comparisons for 2011.
EB2 ROW 2010 - 25
EB2 ROW 2011 - 63
EB1 (A+B+C) - 2010: 8 + 6 + 5 = 19
EB1 (A+B+C) - 2011: 3 + 2 + 20 = 25
Last year’s SOFAD was 30K lets split it as EB1 - 12K, EB5 - 6K, Regular Cap - 5.5K, EB2 ROW 6.5
- EB2 ROW usage is drastically down by 60%. This could really be good for SOFAD. If this trend continues
Then EB2 could well be providing very significant SOFAD.
Let’s assume decline to be 30% instead of 60%. As smaller figures do not mean smaller scale down literally they should be factored.
EB2 ROW SOFAD will be - (40-5.5) - 70/100 (40-5.5-6.5) = 34.5 - 19.6 = 15K.
- EB1 is overall in the same range down by 25%, however looking at the figures looks like the Kazarian memo is playing havoc with EB1 A & B diminishing and EB1C growing 4 fold.
Looks like EB1 should maintain the 12K SOFAD. It’s a must that the Kazarian trend is maintained or ROW decline should compensate it.
Despite high 485 inventory and high 140 figures the Trackitt trend for October is highly encouraging. This is very early days however last year this early lead was very correct. With this early trend I believe that last year’s SOFAD level may well be maintained but let’s make note that it’s an early trend and Trackitt represents only a small sample of data but the great advantage is that its well organized. For October yet another explanation could be that CO is giving away EB1, EB2 ROW and EB5 excess to EB2 I/C on a monthly basis if it is literally true.
If last year’s SOFAD level is maintained then everyone in 2007 will have GC in hand by Sep 2012, however the other indicators suggest lesser movement than this. To take the Trackitt trend concrete another 2 months of observation is required. The agencies IMHO must maintain 2 months as a buffer. Let’s all hope the Trackitt trend holds.

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Thanks Teddy for this wonderful calculations. I really hope hr3012 becomes law someday. It's frustrating to be at mercy of someone else even if we have same/better skillset.

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

These are just my personal beliefs. The movement will happen only in the Dec bulletin because definitely a wave is coming by I140 and I485.
The date range could be 01-JAN-2008 to 01-MAR-2008 (Date From CO).
Actual approvals i.e. GC in hand will range from 01-NOV-2007 to 31st Dec 2007. The Trackitt trend indicates the higher end for now otherwise with the wave of I140 and I485 it may well be the lower end.

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I have a feeling u r right. I do believe we move to mar2008 but thats it till Q4.

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

These are just my personal beliefs. The movement will happen only in the Dec bulletin because definitely a wave is coming by I140 and I485.
The date range could be 01-JAN-2008 to 01-MAR-2008 (Date From CO).
Actual approvals i.e. GC in hand will range from 01-NOV-2007 to 31st Dec 2007. The Trackitt trend indicates the higher end for now otherwise with the wave of I140 and I485 it may well be the lower end.

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Teddy, so i couldbe on an edge to get gc in this year's quota? Pd dec31, 2007. My lawyer was working hard before new years eve :)

I might not share the frustrations of some of you on this forum. But most here are on the right side of the spectrum as far as applications are concerned. But CO/VO have to deal with myriad cases with multitude of challenges, unique at times. So they approach with caution. And don't forget USCIS, DOS et.al. are federal organizations with no urge to compete or be efficient like private organizations. I haven't forgotten where I come from and how well the govt. organizations function, pun intended..:)
I'm only trying to reason.

Btw can't help but sound trite when I say how much I appreciate this forum and people behind it.

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Originally Posted by asankaran

I think there is nothing wrong in criticizing CO, USCIS et.al. These individuals and organizations have been created to be inefficient so that potential immigrants could be frustrated to their wits end. How else could the wastage of visas, delays in processing H1B, ripping of employers by premium processing could be explained ?

BTW on a happier note, Wish all of Q Blog readers Happy and Prosperous Diwali. Thanks Q for creating this wonderful ecosystem that brings clarity to the whole immigration process. Congratulations to all those who have become current and pray that by next Diwali we are in a better state than we are currently.

Thanks,
Arun

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Hi,
I am new to this thread but continuously following the thread for some time. great work by all moderators on the calculations.
Just want to share something that came in my mind.
If we look at the recent 485 pending inventory release dates they are consistent last year and this year,based on that can we expect next inventory report on Jan first week of 2012. does that mean the EB2 dates will move around 3 months each for Dec, Jan Bulletin and decide the dates for Feb bulletin based on inventory report that releases on Jan first week. this matches with the recent CO statement on Eb2 dates.

My PD is Jun 13 2008, hoping my PD getting current in FY 2012.

Sorry for cluttering the forum - Q - please remove this later to appropriate location.

As I had posted, I am in India with my wife for Diwali. We went to New Delhi Embassy for our H1B stamping - our interview was fine and quick (I work for a large Univ in Business School and she works for a large bank). We got our visas back in 3-4 days - all fine - except - they had printed our Employer Names wrong - wrong campus in my case and National Association in her case instead of North America (for HSBC N A). They asked her to submit the passports back for visa correction to VFS with a cover letter. We did that. No response for a week and finally today we got an email saying that the passport is for 221(g) administrative processing.

This is such a shock to us. We are on H1B for more than 3 years and this was just a reissue of the visa. There is nothing in our background that will inspire suspicion. We even had the visa - it was their mistake that they printed our employer name wrong (BOTH OF THEM!) - and now we are stuck.

PLEASE if anyone has any thoughts on the way forward - please let me know. This is the first time I have ever had any immigration problem and don't know what to do. Please help.

imdeng very sorry to hear that.

Guys if anybody has gone through similar experience please share.

imdeng lets hope this is only administrative check with your employer or they might ask you some additional document and gets resolved quickly.

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Originally Posted by imdeng

Sorry for cluttering the forum - Q - please remove this later to appropriate location.

As I had posted, I am in India with my wife for Diwali. We went to New Delhi Embassy for our H1B stamping - our interview was fine and quick (I work for a large Univ in Business School and she works for a large bank). We got our visas back in 3-4 days - all fine - except - they had printed our Employer Names wrong - wrong campus in my case and National Association in her case instead of North America (for HSBC N A). They asked her to submit the passports back for visa correction to VFS with a cover letter. We did that. No response for a week and finally today we got an email saying that the passport is for 221(g) administrative processing.

This is such a shock to us. We are on H1B for more than 3 years and this was just a reissue of the visa. There is nothing in our background that will inspire suspicion. We even had the visa - it was their mistake that they printed our employer name wrong (BOTH OF THEM!) - and now we are stuck.

PLEASE if anyone has any thoughts on the way forward - please let me know. This is the first time I have ever had any immigration problem and don't know what to do. Please help.

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Please excuse me if this is the wrong forum and please direct me to the correct one.

During our recent visit to home country both me and my spouse were able to recieve duplicate copy of our birth certificates ( a pleasent surprise).

Below is my querry. On my wifes BC the city and district of birth are correct. However on the passport the birth place is listed as the district instead of the city. Would that be a problem.

for instance the BC list place of birth as City of (Name of City), District( name of district). On passport place of birth (name of district) same as the district on birth certificate.

Please let me know if someone has similar experience and/or if gurus have some insight.

thanks,

I quick question may be silly, if my priority date is April 8, 2008 and VB cut of date is also April 8, 2008, am I eligible to apply the 485 or I need to wait VB cut of date becomes April 15, 2008 or later.

Imdeng, sorry to hear about your situation. I went through 221(g) processing 3-4 years back (I guess it was name check, since they didn't ask me to submit any additional documents). It took ~3 months to get my Visa. Not sure if things have improved since then in terms of processing time. My employer was kind enough to wait for me and helped in every way possible. I suggest you contact your employer and explain the situation. Also you can talk to your company lawyer. They might be familiar with similar cases and associated processing times.

You have to wait till VB cut off date move past April 8, 2008

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Originally Posted by venkimakthal

I quick question may be silly, if my priority date is April 8, 2008 and VB cut of date is also April 8, 2008, am I eligible to apply the 485 or I need to wait VB cut of date becomes April 15, 2008 or later.

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Originally Posted by rdsingh79

You have to wait till VB cut off date move past April 8, 2008

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Thank you, I need to pray VB cut of date need to minimum of April 15, 2008 :)

I am having a similar issue. In my case, the birth certificate has the correct place where the hospital is located, but the passport has incorrect city which is the very next city where she lived. My attorney is suggesting to initiate the process to correct the place of birth in the passport through a court order and have it completed by the time (if) there is a query for this discrepancy. While submitting the 485 documents, he is going to submit them as it is and use the city from the BC in the 485 application since that is the actual place of birth.

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Originally Posted by sam96_77

Please excuse me if this is the wrong forum and please direct me to the correct one.

During our recent visit to home country both me and my spouse were able to recieve duplicate copy of our birth certificates ( a pleasent surprise).

Below is my querry. On my wifes BC the city and district of birth are correct. However on the passport the birth place is listed as the district instead of the city. Would that be a problem.

for instance the BC list place of birth as City of (Name of City), District( name of district). On passport place of birth (name of district) same as the district on birth certificate.

Please let me know if someone has similar experience and/or if gurus have some insight.

thanks,

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Originally Posted by venkimakthal

I quick question may be silly, if my priority date is April 8, 2008 and VB cut of date is also April 8, 2008, am I eligible to apply the 485 or I need to wait VB cut of date becomes April 15, 2008 or later.

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If the date moves to Apr. 9th 2008 then you are eligible to apply for 485.:o