EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

Gurus, do we have any data which shows spillover from eb2 row (to eb 2IC) over the past 5 years.

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Originally Posted by leo07

100% I feel the same here...with MS in pocket, I was not willing to spend a penny for any of these Desi-shops who were willing to file GC for me. Many of my friends who went that way have Citizenship now.
So, fresh MS grads who are out there, if you are wise enough to read this--take it from me: Don't wait 13 years...get through Cognizant/INFY or a desi body shop next to seven-eleven, if you have to.

Best!!

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--> I guess there are quite a few in my bucket. I was eligible to file under EB2 way back in 2002 with company's expenses. I didnt thinking that I want to go back.

Then got laid off and the new employer wanted to file within 6 months, but I wasnt sure if I'd stick around with him. I eventually woke up from slumber (and inorder to get eligibility for 7th year extension) I filed in '07.

I still kick myself for not acting when I could...

Anyways, lets hope all of us will sail through this quicker than expected.

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Originally Posted by leo07

Welcome.

if it helps any my PD is June 08th 2007, missed the opportunity to file EAD and had to pay huge price as rolling consequences.

Only Atlanta was taking 3-4 months then, Chicago was taking less than a week in 2007. More over, lot of people took chances of sending 485 out anyways, that worked out for some.

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Thanks Leo. That makes sense, my perm was also approved from Atlanta. Hope we get a chance to file I485 this year.

Same case here...

Been in US for 6 years. Had oppurtunity to file GC in 2006 and 2008 with two different employers (full time positions)... did not file in 2006.. since i was not sure if I wanted to stay in US. In 2008, I was not sure if I would have continued with the same employer for that long.

Now I have a PD of Dec 2010 with a new employer (full time position) and really got serious with GC to get the 7th year extension.

I was not active in these kind of forums and am facing the consequences. I wish I had filed in 2006 and done the PD porting now. Would have had GC in hand by now.

As it appears, I will have to wait atleast until 2014 even to get the EAD. God knows about GC.. may be in 2015 or 2016. Not sure if I want to stay in US that long.. but atleast my PD is locked... just in case...

Anyways... Best of luck to all you folks!
S

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Originally Posted by pravara

--> I guess there are quite a few in my bucket. I was eligible to file under EB2 way back in 2002 with company's expenses. I didnt thinking that I want to go back.

Then got laid off and the new employer wanted to file within 6 months, but I wasnt sure if I'd stick around with him. I eventually woke up from slumber (and inorder to get eligibility for 7th year extension) I filed in '07.

I still kick myself for not acting when I could...

Anyways, lets hope all of us will sail through this quicker than expected.

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Originally Posted by vishnu

Gurus, do we have any data which shows spillover from eb2 row (to eb 2IC) over the past 5 years.

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vishnu,
See below table for Total EB numbers approved for last 5 years and overall SOFAD to EB2I&C

-FY ---- EB2I ---- EB2C ------ SOFAD --- Total EB
2005 --16,687 -----9,346 -----20,427 ----242,335
2006 ---3,719 -----3,344 ------1,457 ----133,322
2007 ---6,203 -----6,797 ------7,349 ----154,137
2008 --14,806 -----6,955 -----16,155 ----162,949
2009 --10,106 -----3,045 ------7,545 ----140,047
2010 --19,961 -----6,505 -----20,860 ----150,262
Total -71,482 -----35,992 ----73,838 ----938,052

Hi Q
Question on the comment you made, can you explain what happens if it cannot b processed this year do PWMB will have to wait till may/ June next year for getting the visa number?

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

i must say that soggadu really brought a very good point forward that PWMB can't be prcessed this year. There is no chance for them now.

So that creates an upside of 4K (approx) and make mar-apr 2007 a much more certainty than before. So even if ROW delivers zero. There is a very good possibility that the dates could move into early 2007 regardless of ROW EB2 SOFAD.

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ifaith, the dates could move in a jerky manner between now and Oct 2011. But after that the date will settle and stay there until Q4 in 2012. As of now my guess is that the dates should move upto Mar-Apr 2007. Now assuming that's what happens. Then while the dates are settled, the PWMBs that have their date current will be processed. However the processing will take its usual time of around 3-9 months after filing 485.

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Originally Posted by ifaith

Hi Q
Question on the comment you made, can you explain what happens if it cannot b processed this year do PWMB will have to wait till may/ June next year for getting the visa number?

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Originally Posted by veni001

vishnu,
See below table for Total EB numbers approved for last 5 years and overall SOFAD to EB2I&C

-FY ---- EB2I ---- EB2C ------ SOFAD --- Total EB
2005 --16,687 -----9,346 -----20,427 ----242,335
2006 ---3,719 -----3,344 ------1,457 ----133,322
2007 ---6,203 -----6,797 ------7,349 ----154,137
2008 --14,806 -----6,955 -----16,155 ----162,949
2009 --10,106 -----3,045 ------7,545 ----140,047
2010 --19,961 -----6,505 -----20,860 ----150,262
Total -71,482 -----35,992 ----73,838 ----938,052

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Veni,

I don't quite agree with those figures.

SOFAD includes the normal allocation.
The 7% varies with the total EB allocation.
DOS reports FY2009 total approvals as 140,987.

It doesn't make sense to go prior to FY2008, since the Spillover interpretation was completely different.

My figures are :

-FY ----- EB2I ------ EB2C ------ SOFAD ---- 2 * 7% ----- S/Over --- Total EB
2008 -- 14,806 ----- 6,955 ----- 21,761 ----- 6,514 ----- 15,247 ---- 162,949
2009 -- 10,106 ----- 3,045 ----- 13,151 ----- 5,606 ------ 7,545 ---- 140,987
2010 -- 19,961 ----- 6,505 ----- 26,466 ----- 6,032 ----- 20,434 ---- 150,262

I am new member here. Q, your comments are very impressive. My PD is around June 2008. What you guys think, when it will become current.
Any chance of happening this year? Or when should I expect some movements?

I read on trackitt that a guy with PD 2007 June has got mail from NVC to pay $$ for CP... Looks like the dates might move further than our assumptions...

one more instance by EB3 ROW monica on trackitt....

"Dear friends, one of our acquaintances and his attorney with late PD October 2007 under EB2-India has received mail from NVC on submitting fees. As we mentioned in one of our article, in general NVC would send such notices to the beneficiary atleast 8-9 month before when they think their PD will be current so that beneficiary can be documnetarily qualified when dates will become current. This is postive news that atleast NVC is thinking that EB2-India with PD Oct 2007 has potential to become current in 8-9 months.If this is true chances are that we can reach 01 June 2007 by FY 2011. "

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Originally Posted by soggadu

one more instance by EB3 ROW monica on trackitt....

"Dear friends, one of our acquaintances and his attorney with late PD October 2007 under EB2-India has received mail from NVC on submitting fees. As we mentioned in one of our article, in general NVC would send such notices to the beneficiary atleast 8-9 month before when they think their PD will be current so that beneficiary can be documnetarily qualified when dates will become current. This is postive news that atleast NVC is thinking that EB2-India with PD Oct 2007 has potential to become current in 8-9 months.If this is true chances are that we can reach 01 June 2007 by FY 2011. "

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8-9 months of wait is with present estimate of demand. by dates moving further forward not sure how demand data will be, for sure most of the forums and analysis expect it should move to Apr-May 2007 by FY 2011. we can all expect and better analyze after July VB is released, coz it can give better picture of Spillover.

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Originally Posted by soggadu

one more instance by EB3 ROW monica on trackitt....

"Dear friends, one of our acquaintances and his attorney with late PD October 2007 under EB2-India has received mail from NVC on submitting fees. As we mentioned in one of our article, in general NVC would send such notices to the beneficiary atleast 8-9 month before when they think their PD will be current so that beneficiary can be documnetarily qualified when dates will become current. This is postive news that atleast NVC is thinking that EB2-India with PD Oct 2007 has potential to become current in 8-9 months.If this is true chances are that we can reach 01 June 2007 by FY 2011. "

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From the same site that quotes above, it also says

"Please note that NVC sending mail is solely based on the assumption that projected demand would reap in 8-9 months. It does not guarantee that projected demand will be representative of actual demand"

Just adding this for completeness. This can come true as long as USCIS will not see PWMB demand. Once they will see that demand things might slow down little. I just hope that EB2I/C should make as big leap as possible in September 2011.

Here is a post on Imminfo..A NVC email for someone with a PD for 04/15/2008 for CP..

Hi Ron

Today I've received an email from NVCAttorney@state.gov stating that I need to pay $794 for each applicant in the immigration petition. I have applied for CP and priority date is 15 APR 2008 (EB2). I-140 approved with CP option during Sep 2008.

Is this a genuine email? Shall I go ahead and pay the money. Please suggest.

Does this notification in any way means, my PD is getting closer to the Current?

thanks
rk_2010

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Originally Posted by ChampU

Here is a post on Imminfo..A NVC email for someone with a PD for 04/15/2008 for CP..

Hi Ron

Today I've received an email from NVCAttorney@state.gov stating that I need to pay $794 for each applicant in the immigration petition. I have applied for CP and priority date is 15 APR 2008 (EB2). I-140 approved with CP option during Sep 2008.

Is this a genuine email? Shall I go ahead and pay the money. Please suggest.

Does this notification in any way means, my PD is getting closer to the Current?

thanks
rk_2010

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As I hear from friends, NVC takes about a year from the time it asks for AOS fee. In that case, we can guess that EB2 PD 15 APR 2008 would become current by May 2012.

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Originally Posted by gcwait2007

As I hear from friends, NVC takes about a year from the time it asks for AOS fee. In that case, we can guess that EB2 PD 15 APR 2008 would become current by May 2012.

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This correlates verry well to the actual predictions, thanks for the details and posting.

Q, Veni, Teddy, Spec and others..

I know the chances of EB2 - I becoming current by Sept 2011 (to build demand) is 1 in million....

However a wierd thought/Question has been lingering in my brain...

Is there any scenario/situation where DOS will not have any other option and be forced to make EB2-I current.

One possible scenario is say in Sep VB (released in August), they realize they have more number of visas than the demand/backlog. To avoid Visa wastage, they may try to give some left over Visa numbers to EB3. They cannot do this unless EB2 all countries are 'Current'.

What do you think gurus? Any other scenarios you can think of.

Thanks!
S

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

This correlates verry well to the actual predictions, thanks for the details and posting.

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Terrific Job all the gurus. I have been following this thread to educate myself regarding one of the important things in my life AKA GC.
While we are on this topic, my PD is FEB 2008 and I got an email yesterday from NVC to pay the AOS fees. I checked with my attorney and she said it is because we did leave the option open for CP in case we had to use it while filing I-140. I am not sure what to make out of this as VB date is in OCT 2006, almost 1.5 years to from FEB 2008.

Thats the kind of news I am looking for.. :-) I called my paralegal to check if they received any such email..

Q,Teddy,Veni, Spec .. what to make of this info?

Teddy: Could you please provide more details on the actual predictions??

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Originally Posted by ChampU

Thats the kind of news I am looking for.. :-) I called my paralegal to check if they received any such email..

Q,Teddy,Veni, Spec .. what to make of this info?

Teddy: Could you please provide more details on the actual predictions??

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Almost everyone has been predicting that the dates should reach atleast April 2007. You can refer to the facts and data section and also post # 1 from qesehmk for details.

FAQ on the Dept of State website say that NVC asks for payment when the date is current or they think it will be in next SEVERAL months.... would assume that several means around a year I guess...
http://travel.state.gov/visa/immigra...ml#beneficiary

Quote:

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Originally Posted by leo07

100% I feel the same here...with MS in pocket, I was not willing to spend a penny for any of these Desi-shops who were willing to file GC for me. Many of my friends who went that way have Citizenship now.
So, fresh MS grads who are out there, if you are wise enough to read this--take it from me: Don't wait 13 years...get through Cognizant/INFY or a desi body shop next to seven-eleven, if you have to.

Best!!

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Leo, I was wearing the same shoes as you did back then....After Masters, first 5 years on H1 - 2 fulltime positions - Life was easy...near the end of H1 got processing done with desi shop.
I agree 100% with your suggestion to MS grads, If someone gave me the suggestion back then...there would be a 0% chance that I would agree.....
My Labor was also stuck in Atlanta on 07. Bunch of approvals on trackitt on Aug 15 07, none on Aug 16 and few more+mine on Aug 17 07...will never forget Aug 17!

I finished masters in 2005 and waited till 2007 to start GC process..I should have started in 2005 and would have been greened by now..Alas as everyone suggests its never late to start..atleast get GC process going...

Hi Guys,
Just one quick question. My PD is 17th May 2007 with approved I140. What are the implications if i leave my current employer and join a full time firm on h1. Can i retain my PD or what will be my PD date. Awaiting for you response thanks in advance....

Yes, you can retain your PD from your earlier approved I140. I am assuming that you haven't submitted your I485 yet (else you could have ported to another similar job using AC21 provisions); in that case, you have to redo your PERM + I140 with your new employer.

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Originally Posted by cotes_ashish

Hi Guys,
Just one quick question. My PD is 17th May 2007 with approved I140. What are the implications if i leave my current employer and join a full time firm on h1. Can i retain my PD or what will be my PD date. Awaiting for you response thanks in advance....

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With a PD which is so close to being current, I would wait until my PD is current or at least Sept. 2011 (whichever is earlier).

Thanks you guys for all your inputs. Yes I haven't filed I-485. One last question so employer files h1+labour+i140 and i can used the current i-140 and port it to i-140 applied/approval date ?

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Originally Posted by cotes_ashish

Thanks you guys for all your inputs. Yes I haven't filed I-485. One last question so employer files h1+labour+i140 and i can used the current i-140 and port it to i-140 applied/approval date ?

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Yes.. you will port your new PERM-I140 to your 2007 PD. In my opinion, if you go this route, your GC-in-hand will be delayed by about 1 year (due to new application).
All the best!

Roughly, this is your scenario: if EB2-I movement is sufficient enough during this year, May'07 PD might be approved by Sep'11; else May'07 PD will be approved sometime during first half of 2012 (also consider that you will need ~4 months from I485 submission). If you join a new job and they start your PERM application right away, then your time line might look like: preparing the PERM application, incl. job ad, etc (4 months); PERM approval (2 - 6 months); I140 approval (15 days w/Premium Processing). So, overall it will take around a year or slightly more than that. In the above scenario, you might also concurrently file for I140 and I485 as it is more likely that your PD will be current by then.

cotes_ashish, I know I'm digressing from the purpose of this thread. But, I could not resist posting this suggestion for you--Given an option in your situation, I would not venture such a risk at least until I see all of July,Aug & September 2011 bulletins. Since we are so close. I honestly think folks until August 1st 2007 will be able to file for EAD by September 2011.

Good Luck to all of us.

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Originally Posted by cotes_ashish

Hi Guys,
Just one quick question. My PD is 17th May 2007 with approved I140. What are the implications if i leave my current employer and join a full time firm on h1. Can i retain my PD or what will be my PD date. Awaiting for you response thanks in advance....

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Over at IV lot of people are reporting NVC invoice messages on the automated line. Just saw one with a PD of Dec 2007 EB2-I

@soggadu: Dude, if this comes true, sabke mooh me halidiraam ki mithayi aur tumhare mooh me halidraam ka dukaan...:) (courtesy: Q's quote from an earlier post)

@Q: Sorry, I stole your quote from earlier :)

@ angryclubs: Thanks for this info, hope we move into 2008 by Sep, 2011 :).

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Originally Posted by angryclubs

Over at IV lot of people are reporting NVC invoice messages on the automated line. Just saw one with a PD of Dec 2007 EB2-I

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by angryclubs

Over at IV lot of people are reporting NVC invoice messages on the automated line. Just saw one with a PD of Dec 2007 EB2-I

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Angryclubs: what is the automated line? Do you have the IV links?
This is great news guys.. hope to file for I485 at least.

This guy has a PD of Feb 2008 http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/fo...ml#post2611476

NVC Details:
24-Hour Information
An automated recorded message system is available twenty-four hours a day, seven days a week to answer case status inquiries (603) 334-0700.

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Originally Posted by angryclubs

This guy has a PD of Feb 2008 http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/fo...ml#post2611476

NVC Details:
24-Hour Information
An automated recorded message system is available twenty-four hours a day, seven days a week to answer case status inquiries (603) 334-0700.

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Thanks for the info.
I called them with my LIN number but the NVC didn't have my case in their system.The lady on the phone was very nice and she said that could because my attorney had opted for AOS and didn't opt for CP. She asked me to wait until i get anything from NVC (if at all).. and then call back for further information.

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Originally Posted by ChampU

Thanks for the info.
I called them with my LIN number but the NVC didn't have my case in their system.The lady on the phone was very nice and she said that could because my attorney had opted for AOS and didn't opt for CP. She asked me to wait until i get anything from NVC (if at all).. and then call back for further information.

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Gang of guru's...

Can we take all this news as a positive sign???? Did it happen anytime in the past that people receive these mails and they get current??

Please share ur exPeriences guys ..... All the full timers... Ask your respective lawyers what this is all about???

Friends,

Sometime late today we crossed 200,000 views. I must credit this to numerous people active on this forum who continue to provide valuable pieces of information, churn calculations and provide useful advice to others AND MOST IMPORTANTLY do so in a respectful and friendly manner.

I think that really is the spirit of this forum. Truly appreciate everybody's support. Earlier it was just one or two or three of us. Now I see quite a few doing their own work and contributing. So can't really name everybody and so I will just rest it at that.

Thanks and Hope for the best for this year!!

p.s. - I especially want to thanks 3 folks on this forum who act as administrators in addition to contributing to forums. But since some of them probably want to keep it private, I will not name them. But do want to thank them SPECIAL.

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Originally Posted by haripathhi

@soggadu: Dude, if this comes true, sabke mooh me halidiraam ki mithayi aur tumhare mooh me halidraam ka dukaan...:) (courtesy: Q's quote from an earlier post)

@Q: Sorry, I stole your quote from earlier :)

@ angryclubs: Thanks for this info, hope we move into 2008 by Sep, 2011 :).

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dude...i am waiting for the good news as much .... lets hope for the best and leave the rest...

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Veni,

I don't quite agree with those figures.

SOFAD includes the normal allocation.
The 7% varies with the total EB allocation.
DOS reports FY2009 total approvals as 140,987.

It doesn't make sense to go prior to FY2008, since the Spillover interpretation was completely different.

My figures are :

-FY ----- EB2I ------ EB2C ------ SOFAD ---- 2 * 7% ----- S/Over --- Total EB
2008 -- 14,806 ----- 6,955 ----- 21,761 ----- 6,514 ----- 15,247 ---- 162,949
2009 -- 10,106 ----- 3,045 ----- 13,151 ----- 5,606 ------ 7,545 ---- 140,987
2010 -- 19,961 ----- 6,505 ----- 26,466 ----- 6,032 ----- 20,434 ---- 150,262

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Spec,
Thanks for the clarification.

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Originally Posted by skpanda

Q, Veni, Teddy, Spec and others..

I know the chances of EB2 - I becoming current by Sept 2011 (to build demand) is 1 in million....

However a wierd thought/Question has been lingering in my brain...

Is there any scenario/situation where DOS will not have any other option and be forced to make EB2-I current.

One possible scenario is say in Sep VB (released in August), they realize they have more number of visas than the demand/backlog. To avoid Visa wastage, they may try to give some left over Visa numbers to EB3. They cannot do this unless EB2 all countries are 'Current'.

What do you think gurus? Any other scenarios you can think of.

Thanks!
S

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skpanda,
If USCIS/DOS would like to take have more applications at hand by making EB2I&C current,they can do it at any time! Since USCIS got more visibility into EB2I&C demand and also coordinating with DOS on a regular basis to set the cutoff dates, i don't think this is a possibility!

Coming to your VISA wastage question, i think as long as they have more VISAs available than pre-adjudicated cases(chances are minimal) on hand in Q4 they could spill those into EB3.