Thank you!
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Thank you!
What is more interesting to see is the EB2ROW vs the EB3ROW inventory. The EB2ROW inventory has actually gone up from 18.8k to 22.4k while the EB3ROW inventory decreased from 12k to 9.6k. If we compare the last few months of pending inventory, EB3ROW has around 600 per month while EB2ROW is anywhere from 1100 to 1500 per month. The data clearly points to higher EB2ROW filings than EB3ROW.
CO continues to be bias waiting for the EB3ROW demand to "show up".
Exactly my thoughts which I posted in the other thread.
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...pprovals/page2
May be EB2 is the new EB3 where employees can be held hostage for longer periods of time on H1Bs. So most company HRs are piling in everyone into EB2.Think in that way.
On a separate note , I hope Eb3 I clears 2005/2006 this FY.
Gurus here, really appreciate any thoughts on EB3 I future this year. Please throw some light.
I was hoping to see some reduction in EB2I inventory whereas it has gone up by 700! In other words, the porting continues unabated and is expected to continue until some thing dramatic happens. Given these circumstances, I have a few questions,
1. What will be the EB3I situation at the end of FY? Can we expect to get some spillover from EB3ROW?
2. What will be effect of processing times of EB2ROW on EB2I
3. If the Trump administration cracks down on illegal immigration, would it have an effect on EB4?
Spec mentioned in a prior post that EB4 (under the Special Immigrant Juvenile) quota is showing high demand, so I am guessing that any impact from increased deportations will be hard to come by for at least one year.
Regards
Iatiam
In the coming years we are going to see an intresting dynamic. This is my take. Because of ultra nationalism that is appearing and the incoming President using twitter to shame companies and take credit for keeping jobs , we might see similar behavior when it comes to companies using large number of H1 in the yearly quota.
So for example if TCS uses large nuber of H1b they will get called out on twitter and that will huge PR disaster for them and any company .
As a result we might see companies not file for new H1B and they might see similar dynamics on L1. I dont think companies want to get bad PR and then have the new attorney general come behind them . I think they will adopt a long view and stay away from filing H1 and L1 visas. It might be wait and watch for them.
I know TCS has started to recruit only GC and citizens. I truly belive this will happen. This might lead to more spill over. What we see as a negative might turn into a positive for backlogged folks.
I know my company a big financial firm is unwilling to do even H1 transfers. I know of an airline company which has stopped H1 in response to the election as a wait and watch. I think we will see this wholesale.
We will also see OPT extensions going away. The incentives for students to come here will go down as well as companies will be unwilling to do H1. That will dry up the F1 to H1 pipeline. I do believe we will start seeing this in the coming years. The dynamics which held during Obama years will not hold now due to the rise of nationalism and america first strain. Republicans were free market and competition oriented they are not anymore. Ppl dont trust big corporations they dont belive they create jobs . So faith in free markt captilasim is dwindling and we are seeing a shift towards nationalism and a closed society. This is a result part of the financial crisis , slow growing wages , automation etc.
Can't agree more. In comparison to 2015 October pending inventory, not only EB3ROW but also EB3 P/M/C pending inventory numbers are lesser (though less significant) in October 2016 pending inventory. I hope there is a decent spill over to EB3I and the backlog reduces/clears in 2017.
Spec / YTEleven and Other Guru's - can you please post your thoughts on EB3I for 2017. What would be an approximate timeframe for EB3I inventory up to 2007 Aug to clear?
Who are those in the inventory, filled in EB2I and EB3I from 2011 to 2016?
Thank you for all the time you put into analyzing USCIS data. my PD is June23rd2010 EB2 India, do you see any possibility my dates would be current for an EAD in Year 2017 ?. I have a full time offer to get into sr.management role with my current client , but worried to restart GC process and loosing EAD opportunity if dates become current this year.
DOS has started to publish the FY2016 Visa Statistics, although not the most interesting ones as of yet. It may be several weeks before they are published.
We can observe some trends in Consular Processing from the Tables published to date.
Immigrant and Nonimmigrant Visas Issued at Foreign Service Posts Fiscal Years 2012 - 2016
Immigrant Categories ------------- FY2012 ---- FY2013 ---- FY2014 ---- FY2015 ---- FY2016
Immediate Relatives ------------- 235,616 --- 205,435 --- 185,130 --- 243,432 --- 315,352
Special Immigrants ---------------- 5,219 ----- 6,424 ---- 12,084 ----- 9,468 ---- 16,176
Vietnam Amerasian Immigrants --------- 75 -------- 12 -------- 13 -------- 13 --------- 6
Family Sponsored Preference ----- 189,128 --- 189,020 --- 197,760 --- 208,840 --- 215,498
Employment-Based Preference ------ 19,137 ---- 21,144 ---- 21,365 ---- 21,613 ---- 25,056
Armed Forces Special Immigrants ------- 0 --------- 0 --------- 0 --------- 0 --------- 0
Diversity Immigrants ------------- 33,125 ---- 51,080 ---- 51,018 ---- 48,097 ---- 45,664
Total --------------------------- 482,300 --- 473,115 --- 467,370 --- 531,463 --- 617,752
Both FB and EB preference category CP approvals have increased.
Of the 226k available for the FB preference, CP accounted for 95% of approvals in FY2016.
EMPLOYMENT BASED CONSULAR PROCESSING
------------- FY2015 --- FY2016 ---- DIFF.
CHINA -------- 9,005 ---- 8,673 --- ( 332)
INDIA ---------- 682 ------ 676 ----- ( 6)
MEXICO --------- 266 ------ 241 ---- ( 25)
PHILIPPINES -- 3,981 ---- 5,664 --- 1,683
ROW ---------- 7,679 ---- 9,802 --- 2,123
TOTAL ------- 21,613 --- 25,056 --- 3,443
SOUTH KOREA -- 1,536 ---- 2,953 --- 1,417
Employment Based CP approvals increased 16% over FY2015 in FY2016. All of the increase came in either Philippines or ROW.
Within ROW, South Korea accounted for a large part of the rise. South Korea CP approvals increased 92% in FY2016 over FY2015.
Employment Categories ------------- FY2012 --- FY2013 --- FY2014 --- FY2015 --- FY2016
EB1 -------------------------------- 1,534 ---- 1,722 ---- 1,680 ---- 1,891 ---- 2,361
EB2 -------------------------------- 1,398 ---- 2,284 ---- 1,880 ---- 1,856 ---- 2,155
EB3 Professional/Skilled ----------- 6,290 ---- 6,903 ---- 6,246 ---- 6,226 ---- 7,961
EB3 Other Worker ------------------- 2,020 ---- 1,634 ------ 842 ---- 1,114 ---- 2,340
EB3 Total -------------------------- 8,310 ---- 8,537 ---- 7,088 ---- 7,340 --- 10,301
EB4 -------------------------------- 1,217 ---- 1,289 ---- 1,489 ---- 1,753 ---- 1,734
EB5 -------------------------------- 6,678 ---- 7,312 ---- 9,228 ---- 8,773 ---- 8,505
Employment-Based Preference Total - 19,137 --- 21,144 --- 21,365 --- 21,613 --- 25,056
EB3-Other Worker CP approvals have doubled in FY2016 over FY2015. Even EB3-Professional/Skilled CP approvals have increased 28%.
I was looking at pending inventory, EB3 RoW is very little inventory so there has to be good SO to EB3I. Then why the hell are dates for EB3I not moving rapidly, am i missing something?
Also can experts please comment on EB3I situation, Spec, YTEleven, anyone?
Feb 2017 Visa Bulletin has been published, and there is no movement for EB2-India, and a week forward for EB3-India. One month forward for EB China.
https://travel.state.gov/content/vis.../bulletin.html
Looking at the numbers used for EB3ROW in total for FY2015 were not numbers wasted?
Your comments seem to contradict each other. If you are saying EB3I 2005 will be cleared, then the RFE's have to start rolling out for <Apr2005 in the next month or 2 and those >Apr2005 folks at least by July 1 (like it happened 2 yrs ago). Otherwise, there is no hopes to clear 2005.Quote:
The dates will move for sure, but only during the last quarter of the year. EB3I will end up in a good spot by the year end. At the least, all 2005 cases will be cleared. The patience is key here!
Looks like lifting per-country limit with a rule making is not possible according to below: (per Employment-Based Immigration System Modernization Rule)
3. Limits on Employment-Based Immigration by Country Comment. Several commenters suggested that the per-country limits on available immigrant visas disproportionately iscriminate against individuals from India, China, the Philippines, and Mexico. Some commenters stated that the system should be changed so that the number of available mmigrant visas would be proportionate to the percentage of individuals from India and China working as professionals in the United States on H–1B visas. Commenters noted that the per-country limits fail to account for high population countries with larger numbers of well-educated and high-skilled professionals given that smaller countries have the same percentage of visas available to them. One commenter suggested that the percountry limits are not compatible with the equitable concept of responding to applicants on a first-come, first-served basis. Several commenters suggested that DHS increase the number of available immigrant visas or remove the per-country limits completely, both to speed up processing times and to lessen the adverse impact on Indian and Chinese nationals. Another commenter stated that the per-country limits are illogical, unfair and unpredictable, causing individuals from India and China to suffer unfairly. One commenter stated that merit should be the metric for retaining high-skilled workers, not country of birth.
Response. DHS understands the frustration expressed by commenters who have begun the process to obtain lawful permanent residence, but who are subject to long waits efore their priority date becomes current as a result of the per-country visa limits applicable to their country of birth. However, DHS is unable to make immigrant visas available without regard to an individual’s country of birth as these are statutory requirements under the INA. See generally INA 202, 8 U.S.C. 1152. In particular, INA 202(a) (2), requires that, in any fiscal year, individuals born in any given country generally may be allocated no more than seven percent of the total number of immigrant visas. Thus, only Congress can change the percountry limitations in this statutory provision. DHS notes that this Administration supported lifting the per-country cap as a part of commonsense immigration reform legislation that has considered and passed the U.S. Senate in 2013.
Anyone heard about the new I-485 Schedule J form that needs to be filled out in place of an EVL? Can you please confirm if that's for AC21 or for EVL as well. Has that process changed recently.
https://www.uscis.gov/i-485supj
There are rumors that Trump would sign an EO that would cut the refugee visas by 50k. Since most refugees need to apply for a greencard within 1 year of entry, this would imply that there would be 50k fewer greencards. Would this result in spillover to EB2 and EB3? Is that legally even possible?
admercy,
I was in similar situation 5 yrs back. Had to reapply perm & 140. The law says if the employer moved more than 30mi (don't remember the exactly - but it is < 50mi) from current location, gc process has to start from perm again; ofcourse the pd will be ported. With the way things are currently changing, I suggest you check with your attorney and follow their advice.
Not sure about your other questions.
-Ragx
Hi Gurus
I have a business visit to India coming up later in February. I have a pending I-485 and approved EAD along with AP (approved till 2018). I have also traveled multiple times out of the country on AP in the last couple of years.
Is it safe to travel to India later this month, in the context of current political situation and return back on AP? Please note that I do not have either H or L Visa.
Thanks for quickly
Group ,
Glad to share that my GC was approved through consular processing on 30th December 2016. I had also planned to write a detailed blog for folks choosing consular processing because there exists so little information on it. Please feel free to share the blog with folks choosing consular processing.
Below is blog , just finished it today . Will update it with some more artifacts as soon as I have finished cleansing and securing the confidential information .
http://ebconsularprocessing.blogspot...-consular.html
Good question! Unfortunately, I have no idea what to do in this case. Technically, if you could move to a different job following certain process after filing I-485, you could do the same for this case as a worst case scenario. I'm sure there are better alternative which I'm not aware.
They normally begin issuing RFEs a few months in anticipation of the PD becoming current. By the way, even after you respond to the RFE in a timely manner, it is very likely that dates will retrogress. Many a folk has had this horrible experience, not once, not twice, but thrice or more.
On other note, does anyone has numbers for EB3-I inventory in March 2005 split week wise? I remember I saw this information somewhere on this blog and the OP said most of the ~2000 numbers are concentrated in last week of March. If someone has this information it will give us some guidance into how many months we will be stuck in March 2005.
I think what you recall is this post. I have reproduced the salient part below:
Quote:
As part of the Chinese EB3 lawsuit, CO released the IVAMS figures for EB3 as of July 19, 2010. That showed that EB3-I applications are not distributed evenly for March 2005 - the majority are in the last week.
Mar 1 to Mar 7 ------- 7.8% = FAD of 08MAR05
Mar 8 to Mar 14 ----- 10.7% = FAD of 15MAR05
Mar 15 to Mar 21 ---- 14.2% = FAD of 22MAR05
Mar 22 to Mar 31 ---- 67.3% = FAD of 01APR05
The % are likely to have remained similar over time.
The reason is almost certainly due to the RIR / PERM changeover for labor certification.
Thanks Spec. So there are about 1300-1400 after 22nd March based on latest inventory figure. Looks like EB3-I will remain in March 2005 till June at least.
Hi Incredible,
I just got back from India recently. While this whole mess is flip flopping, be prepared to answer extra questions even though right now that issue is on hold. I landed 28th with an AP at Newark NJ in the middle of all that sh!t storm and had to answer a lot more questions then I ever did for all my prior trips put together. The stories from other folks are similar even now.
Flew into Newark this morning. wife (secondary) and I (primary) are on EAD/AP, children are US citizens. First officer:
Q1 - How long were you out of US?
Q2 - What was the purpose of your trip?
Then went to standard secondary checking. Second officer:
Q1 - How long was your trip for?
Q2 - What are you adjusting status based on?
Stamped paperwork and we walked out. That was it for us.
Flew into JFK today. No ruder than normal. Standard boilerplate questions - where are you coming from, what do you do, etc.