EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

USCIS is about to be hit with millions of new applications - expanded DACA will happen in 3 months, Deferred Action for Parents will happen in 6 months. DAP will be several million applications - and would coincide with the summer spillover season. Given this, it would make sense for USCIS to take care of some of its priorities right now when the load is low. For example - making EB3ROW current and building inventory - do it now rather than in summer. Clearing EB2I until 01NOV2009 - do it now rather than waiting for summer and then also run the risk of sending new medical RFEs for many folks. If inventory building for EB2I is going to happen in FY2014 (big if, I know) then do it now rather than wait until deep in summer - and so on.

It's a good idea. Not likely to happen. But would be nice if it did.

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Originally Posted by imdeng

USCIS is about to be hit with millions of new applications - expanded DACA will happen in 3 months, Deferred Action for Parents will happen in 6 months. DAP will be several million applications - and would coincide with the summer spillover season. Given this, it would make sense for USCIS to take care of some of its priorities right now when the load is low. For example - making EB3ROW current and building inventory - do it now rather than in summer. Clearing EB2I until 01NOV2009 - do it now rather than waiting for summer and then also run the risk of sending new medical RFEs for many folks. If inventory building for EB2I is going to happen in FY2014 (big if, I know) then do it now rather than wait until deep in summer - and so on.

It's a good idea. Not likely to happen. But would be nice if it did.

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It would be too much to expect that kind of strategic planning and competency from this organization. Nothing is going to happen as you said it in your last sentence. I see that one year from now, I would still be here writing the same stuff not being able to file for EAD and you will be awaiting your GC as they would be clearing backlogs till May 1, 2009. Sorry, if I sound too pessimistic.

Web Annual Numerical Limits For FY2015 Has Been Published.

It seems EB will receive around 4k extra visas from FB in FY2015.

Assuming EB1 (28.6%), EB5 (7.1%) (in addition to EB3 (28.6%)) use their extra allotment from the 4k, around 1.4k extra visas might be available to EB2-I.

That kind of number is not going to make a significant difference.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Web Annual Numerical Limits For FY2015 Has Been Published.

It seems EB will receive around 4k extra visas from FB in FY2015.

Assuming EB1 (28.6%), EB5 (7.1%) (in addition to EB3 (28.6%)) use their extra allotment from the 4k, around 1.4k extra visas might be available to EB2-I.

That kind of number is not going to make a significant difference.

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Thanks for the update Spec. With these extra's do you still believe its going to be worst\normal\best case scenario you have listed? What is your assumption on what EB2I might end up during July 2015 if they start moving and how far it will move by end of FY 2015? Appreciate your inputs.

I don't have any changes from my earlier predictions on EB2-I and it still holds good: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...3828#post53828

Header updated for Immigration Executive Order.

Agree with Spec and YT that the new limit of 144K for year 2015 won't make tangible difference to most backlogged folks. 4K extra is still good though.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Web Annual Numerical Limits For FY2015 Has Been Published.

It seems EB will receive around 4k extra visas from FB in FY2015.

Assuming EB1 (28.6%), EB5 (7.1%) (in addition to EB3 (28.6%)) use their extra allotment from the 4k, around 1.4k extra visas might be available to EB2-I.

That kind of number is not going to make a significant difference.

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Thanks Spec!

I will be more optimistic and hope that EB2-I gets more than 1.4K visas (i..e. EB1 and EB5 do not use all of these extra visas allocated to them.). In any case, any number above zero is welcome and I will take it.

Guru's,

Have you looked at this report? It shows immigrant visas issued (not sure if it means GC's or H1's) for India as 745 and for the same category for China as 10K+, didn't make sense...
http://www.travel.state.gov/content/...t-TableIII.pdf

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Originally Posted by cool_guy_2004

Guru's,

Have you looked at this report? It shows immigrant visas issued (not sure if it means GC's or H1's) for India as 745 and for the same category for China as 10K+, didn't make sense...
http://www.travel.state.gov/content/...t-TableIII.pdf

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H1's are not immigrant visas. You are right China's count shows 10K+. I am not sure how to read that.

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Originally Posted by nbk1976

H1's are not immigrant visas. You are right China's count shows 10K+. I am not sure how to read that.

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Worldwide emp visa shows 21,365!

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Originally Posted by cool_guy_2004

Guru's,

Have you looked at this report? It shows immigrant visas issued (not sure if it means GC's or H1's) for India as 745 and for the same category for China as 10K+, didn't make sense...
http://www.travel.state.gov/content/...t-TableIII.pdf

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Originally Posted by nbk1976

H1's are not immigrant visas. You are right China's count shows 10K+. I am not sure how to read that.

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Originally Posted by kkruna

Worldwide emp visa shows 21,365!

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Friends - They do not include adj of status numbers. In other words they only represent CP cases.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Friends - They do not include adj of status numbers. In other words they only represent CP cases.

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Quick question: My PD is 03/15/2010. An hour ago i got an email, status changed from Intial Review to Acceptance. whats going on? Is this system glitch?
please move this to appropriate thread.

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Originally Posted by gkjppp

Quick question: My PD is 03/15/2010. An hour ago i got an email, status changed from Intial Review to Acceptance. whats going on? Is this system glitch?
please move this to appropriate thread.

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I also got text from USCIS that they we be checking on my RFE response ( My PD 04/19/2010).

hope something good is coming

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Originally Posted by harapatta

I also got text from USCIS that they we be checking on my RFE response ( My PD 04/19/2010).

hope something good is coming

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Thanks for reply . when did you got your RFE? I got no RFE's. It says Finger Print Fees was received :-) thats weird though.

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Originally Posted by gkjppp

Thanks for reply . when did you got your RFE? I got no RFE's. It says Finger Print Fees was received :-) thats weird though.

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I replied to RFE in OCT 2012 and it says they will begin working on my case .

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Originally Posted by harapatta

I replied to RFE in OCT 2012 and it says they will begin working on my case .

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Got it, its a glitch. they would have worked on your case long back. mass update... hahaha....

I got the same email saying fee is received and now the status is "Accepted. my pd date is 12/15/2009.

given the text in these messages is the same as what people received back in 2012, looks like a system glitch (i saw more of these messages on trackitt)

that being said, my attorney designated my application as CP (not AoS), PD Sep 2010, so never filed 485. i did receive NVC notice in September to pay the relevant fees - that comes from the DoS, so not a system glitch there

taking both of these items together, perhaps there is a plan to move dates, particular with regards to one of the action points "to utilize all available visas"

anyway lets see what dates do over the next 3 months

Ok def just a system glitch
Ppl who've received greencard already have also been getting messages

I got an LUD on my I-485 with the status same as received your application in August 2007. Status not changed. looks like a mass update

http://travel.state.gov/content/visa...uary-2015.html

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Originally Posted by PD2008AUG25

http://travel.state.gov/content/visa...uary-2015.html

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This is so wrong... I hired a fresher out of college in 2011 and he will get his GC before me. He still wont have enough experience on the day he gets his GC than I had when I hired him.

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Originally Posted by PD2008AUG25

http://travel.state.gov/content/visa...uary-2015.html

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It is interesting to watch EB2-C on how aggressively they downgrade to EB3-C in next 3 quarters. Everybody thinks EB3-C will become current by the end of FY15 but they will never become current as there will be continuous downgrades from EB2-C which drags the EB3-C from becoming current. EB2-I need to learn from EB2-C downgrade experiences for next one year and get ready for FY17 when their turn comes to downgrades unless Congress makes legislation for increasing visas or recapturing visas.

that's very well said

Pending CP demand - link from Jan VB

http://www.travel.state.gov/content/...ngListItem.pdf

Hi YTeleven,
do you think the predictions you made in Sept. 2014 still hold true or there is any changes on the positive side, considering the new data points available now?
Gurus on this forum please let us know your views.

Thanks,
Madhuri

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Originally Posted by YTeleven

In few hours from now we will be in FY15, this will be my last post in FY14.
I've a very positive prediction for EB3-India folks who are waiting for more than 10 years in the GC Q.
Back in May'14 I was predicting that EB3-India will have bright future ahead in this post: here

After a thorough data analysis I could say that in FY16 we will see a complete wipe out of EB3-I I485 inventory as shown in this graph:EB3-I I485 inventory trends
Here I'm comparing the same graph with current EB3-ROW inventory trend:EB3-I I485 inventory trends comparing with EB3-ROW inventory trend

After seeing these graphs you might question why would we see 20k spillover to EB3-I in FY16. This is what I'm getting from all the available data pointers.
After FY15 there will not be any demand for EB3 to consume its yearly 40k visas and that gives a massive horizontal spillover to EB3-India.
So this means we will have inventory buildup for EB3-I also in FY16.

Already, this post predicts that there is a possibility for EB2-I inventory building in FY16.

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This is what we predicted back in April'14 that EB2-I will get at least 21,000 visas :
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...2317#post52317
and this is what the actual allocation of visas for EB2-I in FY14: 23,528 Visas
http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/...leV-PartII.pdf
our predictions were 90% accurate.

I've projections for FY2015...will disclose soon.

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Originally Posted by Madhuri Apte-Kulkarni

Hi YTeleven,
do you think the predictions you made in Sept. 2014 still hold true or there is any changes on the positive side, considering the new data points available now?
Gurus on this forum please let us know your views.

Thanks,
Madhuri

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Yes. Those predictions still hold good. In fact the recent I-485 data was inline to those predictions.

YTeleven, Thanks for posting EB2I forecast. Does this prediction take into account the increase in EB1 filings?

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Originally Posted by sstest

Pending CP demand - link from Jan VB

http://www.travel.state.gov/content/...ngListItem.pdf

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I was expecting a huge reduction in demand for EB3-P visas in this NVC waitlist data for FY2014. But I see a moderate reduction of around 5k applications.
Probably the EB3-P discussion in this link : http://www.forbes.com/sites/andyjsem...t-due-process/ gives some insight on why the EB3-P demand will not reduce.

On the whole, comparing to last four years first time I'm seeing the cracking in NVC waitlist data and it got reduced to 18.5% in FY2014 in spite of huge EB5 demand: NVC_Waitlist_Data_Reduction_from_FY2011_to_FY2014

YT any quick insights on where the PD might land in FY2015 based on your insights ?

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Originally Posted by YTeleven

This is what we predicted back in April'14 that EB2-I will get at least 21,000 visas :
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...2317#post52317
and this is what the actual allocation of visas for EB2-I in FY14: 23,528 Visas
http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/...leV-PartII.pdf
our predictions were 90% accurate.

I've projections for FY2015...will disclose soon.

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As promised, here is the Projections for Visa allocations in FY2015 for EB-INDIA : FY2015_Projected_Visa_Allocations_For_EB2-India_and_EB3-India_Version1

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Originally Posted by arnab222

YT any quick insights on where the PD might land in FY2015 based on your insights ?

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As I said earlier in this post the I-485 inventory levels for EB2-India will drop below 8k by 30Sep2015 and the PD movements will be around Dec 2009.

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Originally Posted by YTeleven

As promised, here is the Projections for Visa allocations in FY2015 for EB-INDIA : FY2015_Projected_Visa_Allocations_For_EB2-India_and_EB3-India_Version1

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Hi YT,

Thank you very much for sharing your projection.
Sorry for a dumb question but does this mean Eb3 I might receive around 6000 SO from Eb3 Row?

Regards
Amul

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Originally Posted by amulchandra

Hi YT,

Thank you very much for sharing your projection.
Sorry for a dumb question but does this mean Eb3 I might receive around 6000 SO from Eb3 Row?

Regards
Amul

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Yes. That's true. I'm expecting around 5k of horizontal spillover from EB3-ROW in FY15.

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Originally Posted by YTeleven

As promised, here is the Projections for Visa allocations in FY2015 for EB-INDIA : FY2015_Projected_Visa_Allocations_For_EB2-India_and_EB3-India_Version1

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Thanks for the projection. So you think my PD July 2nd 2009 EB2I will get current around July 2015? If yes do I need to count on GC or EAD given the processing time for 485 being longer for FY2014.

Header updated.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Header updated.

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I am seeing new forecast on whereismygc.com and it does not look good but I need to take it with a grain of salt. All I know that Q doesn't provide any pessimistic or optimistic estimate but rather gives "common sense/realistic" one.

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Originally Posted by cancer24

I am seeing new forecast on whereismygc.com and it does not look good but I need to take it with a grain of salt. All I know that Q doesn't provide any pessimistic or optimistic estimate but rather gives "common sense/realistic" one.

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Thanks for your words cancer. WhereismyGC's forecast is not quite different than what Spec has been saying. I haven't quite followed YT's predictions but would be curious to hear his take on 2015.

As far as I am concerned - 2014 shows a picture of high usage coupled of high accumulation. It's a double whammy in 2015 - because in 2015 quite likely the demand may stay the same and then there will be a significant backlog that USCIS has to deal with.

Another thing I would be interested in hearing from others is their take on EB-I portings.

Although the usage for 2014 was 23.5K for EB2I - the inventory of EB2I went down only by ~12K. So the remaining 11.5K visas must go towards portings. But then if you look at EB3I inventory reduction - it only looks like 5K.

A) somebody needs to solve this
B) if this doesn't get solved - I think an immigrant group must raise this with Dept of State and ask an explanation because at a time when thousands are waiting in line - 6.5K visas is a big deal to not have an explanation for.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Thanks for your words cancer. WhereismyGC's forecast is not quite different than what Spec has been saying. I haven't quite followed YT's predictions but would be curious to hear his take on 2015.

As far as I am concerned - 2014 shows a picture of high usage coupled of high accumulation. It's a double whammy in 2015 - because in 2015 quite likely the demand may stay the same and then there will be a significant backlog that USCIS has to deal with.

Another thing I would be interested in hearing from others is their take on EB-I portings.

Although the usage for 2014 was 23.5K for EB2I - the inventory of EB2I went down only by ~12K. So the remaining 11.5K visas must go towards portings. But then if you look at EB3I inventory reduction - it only looks like 5K.

A) somebody needs to solve this
B) if this doesn't get solved - I think an immigrant group must raise this with Dept of State and ask an explanation because at a time when thousands are waiting in line - 6.5K visas is a big deal to not have an explanation for.

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Q,
Your concern is valid. I see there is 3.5 K reduction in NVC data this time for EB2-I. : Reduction in NVC Waiting List Data for EB2 from FY2011 to FY2014
Remaining unaccounted numbers may be due to the portings of EB3-I whose PDs between 2007 and 2009 and they may not reflect in inventory accurately.
This is the reason why I often say there will not be any demand when we clear all of the EB3-I inventory in FY16.