EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

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10-05-2020, 01:04 PM
bones20

Just checking if anyone here is filing through Fragomen? have you received the AOS toolkit questionnaire yet?
10-05-2020, 01:10 PM
srimurthy

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chilli19

Job duties remains same. company nature of their business remains same. But the issues was that the previous owner of the company was convicted in the visa fraud and had a sentence too. Now the company is suggesting to file an I-140 amendment along with 485 now, which they haven't said anything since 2012.

when did the employers tell anything ahead and before hand, never! Good Luck to you.
10-05-2020, 01:17 PM
longwaitgigu

Quote:

Originally Posted by bones20

Just checking if anyone here is filing through Fragomen? have you received the AOS toolkit questionnaire yet?

No, we were told we will get by this friday, we will update then
We r filing with fragomen with my spouse
My company is using klasko and main lawyer said they r expecting filing dates open till December
10-05-2020, 01:18 PM
bones20

Quote:

Originally Posted by longwaitgigu

No, we were told we will get by this friday, we will update then
We r filing with fragomen with my spouse
My company is using klasko and main lawyer said they r expecting filing dates open till December

thanks! We were told the same, then they said today but nothing yet.
10-05-2020, 01:23 PM
longwaitgigu

Expect by this week may be Thursday or Friday
They r extremely slow
10-05-2020, 01:31 PM
bones20

Quote:

Originally Posted by longwaitgigu

Expect by this week may be Thursday or Friday
They r extremely slow

Its going to be today - rep confirmed.
10-05-2020, 01:52 PM
Zenzone

Quote:

Originally Posted by longwaitgigu

Question about heroes act which we were talking about taking spillover back
Greg siskind has answered in one of his tweets

The language was written before the new fiscal year started so I'm guessing it will be scrapped or altered of the Senate takes up the bill (and not looking great for that).

Ahh...I might have missed it. Did he opine on that saying the SO language for fiscal 2021 will likely be scrapped as the year has started?
10-05-2020, 01:54 PM
iamdeb

Quote:

Originally Posted by montyp80

I am in the same boat and per my discussion with my lawyer,

1. You can travel while AOS and EAD/AP pending. USCIS will reject your AP (I131) application if you're out of the country when I131 is being processed. Your EAD and AOS application remains unaffected. In this scenario you must have a valid H1b stamp to enter the country again.
2. You can file AOS and EAD application right now and apply for AP once you return to US (again you must have a valid H1b stamp to enter US)

In my case, I asked my laywer to file AOS/EAD/AP and I will take a chance with my AP application (in case I am out of the country when it is being processed). I have H1b extension approved till 2023 and I will be eligible for drop box for visa stamping until October 2021 so I am planning to re-enter us on H1B status.

Hope this helps.

Thanks a ton Monty! This really helps a lot as my scenario is very similar.
10-05-2020, 02:08 PM
longwaitgigu

It's under his countdown day for election on todays Twitter page
10-05-2020, 02:19 PM
Zenzone

Quote:

Originally Posted by longwaitgigu

It's under his countdown day for election on todays Twitter page

Got it! Seeing it.
10-05-2020, 02:57 PM
rohanvus

Hi Experts,

Clarification required if you can weigh in

While filing 485 the employer address has to be the one that was mentioned in PERM (say location A)- right ?
If so , lets say one is working on H1 in another location (say B) different from PERM location - What are the risks in such cases ?

a) When ppl say PERM location is for future employment then can current H1 location be different from PERM location ?
b) Do we need to file H1 amendment to match PERM location before filing 485 ?

Please guide
10-05-2020, 03:21 PM
monsieur

Quote:

Originally Posted by rohanvus

a) When ppl say PERM location is for future employment then can current H1 location be different from PERM location ?
b) Do we need to file H1 amendment to match PERM location before filing 485 ?

Please guide

H1 location amendment is needed if address changes to different metropolitan statistical area (MSA). Lets say you are in Bay Area which (mostly) comes in 1 single MSA, moving form Menlo Park to Sunnyvale will not trigger this. But if you move to Seattle or Portland then yes you have to update your address.
10-05-2020, 03:21 PM
inspired_p

Quote:

Originally Posted by AlmostThere

Well as per the data from below, since 11/2010, 16 times(out of 120) EB3's PD was "ahead" of EB2 PD, so historically speaking - good chance that EB 2 PD will be ahead of EB3 PD in future - of course on an average. [ For 4 months EB2 PD was U, so technically its just 12 times] i.e. 10% chance that EB3 PD can remain "ahead" of EB3 PD .

https://www.immihelp.com/visa-bulletin-tracker/#

Sorry focussing on PD rather than FAD, as that what really is critical in the long run. Thanks!

Thank you ! But given that there are almost 30K more visas to be had in every category ( EB1/EB2/EB3) this year, and with 15K applications already in waiting for EB2-I, EB3-I FAD should move ahead of EB2-I for this year at least.
there is very good chance of May 2011 PD becoming current( FAD) under EB3-I than EB2-I and hence chance of getting your I-485 processed in time before the dates retrogress (oct 2021) are higher under EB3-I. Am I missing something in this prediction? Why would EB3-I not forge ahead if there is relatively very low demand compared to EB2-I ( even considering Downgrade and or multiple EB filings)
10-05-2020, 03:30 PM
rohanvus

Quote:

Originally Posted by monsieur

H1 location amendment is needed if address changes to different metropolitan statistical area (MSA). Lets say you are in Bay Area which (mostly) comes in 1 single MSA, moving form Menlo Park to Sunnyvale will not trigger this. But if you move to Seattle or Portland then yes you have to update your address.

Thats right for H1 amendment where work location must match the H1/LCA location . However , the PERM for Green Card is tied to Head quarter office in another state (different from the current work location). In such case chances for I-485 denial is high because the employee is currently working in a different branch office (of same employer) ?
10-05-2020, 03:55 PM
cool_dude

Finally my employer agreed to downgrade to EB3.. My priority date is May 25 2011.Any chance of getting GC in 12 months?
10-05-2020, 04:03 PM
texas_

Hi Guys,
I am first timer for AOS filing.

When filing AOS do attorney must have to file 485 J along with I 485 ?

My attorney is only filing I 485 , I 944 and Biometrics
Is it okay if they file without I 485 J. They say they have prepared my I140 and my employer is same for past 14 years it's not needed right now

Is this true?
10-05-2020, 04:38 PM
android09

Quote:

Originally Posted by texas_

Hi Guys,
I am first timer for AOS filing.

When filing AOS do attorney must have to file 485 J along with I 485 ?

My attorney is only filing I 485 , I 944 and Biometrics
Is it okay if they file without I 485 J. They say they have prepared my I140 and my employer is same for past 14 years it's not needed right now

Is this true?

My employer is also only filing I-485, I-765, I-131 and I-944. They will not be sending I-485J with the initial package since they're processing I-485 for over 40 individuals and their families. They mentioned that is not their Standard Operating Procedure to send I-485 J with the initial submission. They will send the I-485J when the RFE for it comes from USCIS. Are you filing I-140 and I-485 together? If that's the case, you dont need I-485 J.
10-05-2020, 05:24 PM
user017

Quote:

Originally Posted by bones20

Just checking if anyone here is filing through Fragomen? have you received the AOS toolkit questionnaire yet?

Just received from them
10-05-2020, 05:46 PM
bones20

Quote:

Originally Posted by user017

Just received from them

Same here. They are asking all physical documents/forms from us - effectively, we are preparing the application packet. Hope my printer holds up.
10-05-2020, 06:27 PM
longwaitgigu

Quote:

Originally Posted by bones20

Same here. They are asking all physical documents/forms from us - effectively, we are preparing the application packet. Hope my printer holds up.

We have still not got
Probably by Friday
Just getting tensed up
Everyone is preparing and we are left behind
10-05-2020, 06:28 PM
longwaitgigu

So r u filing for AP and ead
What is ur priority date
When we receive our docs from lawyer, we r planning to skip ap and ead
As they can be filed later
Just doing i485, medicals and i944
We r eb2 oct 2010
10-05-2020, 07:10 PM
bones20

Quote:

Originally Posted by longwaitgigu

So r u filing for AP and ead
What is ur priority date
When we receive our docs from lawyer, we r planning to skip ap and ead
As they can be filed later
Just doing i485, medicals and i944
We r eb2 oct 2010

Why medicals now?
10-05-2020, 07:12 PM
bones20

Quote:

Originally Posted by longwaitgigu

We have still not got
Probably by Friday
Just getting tensed up
Everyone is preparing and we are left behind

Well, I can imagine they are overwhelmed being a big firm with mega clients. I know folks who have hired private attorneys and not using the company lawyers.
10-05-2020, 08:00 PM
longwaitgigu

Quote:

Originally Posted by bones20

Why medicals now?

I got two lawyers saying same thing
Klasko which is my company lawyer and fragomen my spouse company
With PD of my spouse being in oct
It's better to complete the application then later having rfe and delay process
Not apply ap and ead that's what advice I got from this forum
10-05-2020, 08:01 PM
longwaitgigu

No private attorney
That's not option with hr as they r not comfortable working with outside attorney
It's one if giant corporations so I can expect that reply
10-05-2020, 08:27 PM
texas_

Quote:

Originally Posted by android09

My employer is also only filing I-485, I-765, I-131 and I-944. They will not be sending I-485J with the initial package since they're processing I-485 for over 40 individuals and their families. They mentioned that is not their Standard Operating Procedure to send I-485 J with the initial submission. They will send the I-485J when the RFE for it comes from USCIS. Are you filing I-140 and I-485 together? If that's the case, you dont need I-485 J.

No i140 is approved already
10-05-2020, 10:10 PM
bones20

Quote:

Originally Posted by longwaitgigu

I got two lawyers saying same thing
Klasko which is my company lawyer and fragomen my spouse company
With PD of my spouse being in oct
It's better to complete the application then later having rfe and delay process
Not apply ap and ead that's what advice I got from this forum

My PD is April 2010 and Fragomen has advised me otherwise (to wait for an rfe and do medicals i693 later)
10-05-2020, 10:44 PM
JoinedToAsk

Quote:

Originally Posted by longwaitgigu

Question about heroes act which we were talking about taking spillover back
Greg siskind has answered in one of his tweets

The language was written before the new fiscal year started so I'm guessing it will be scrapped or altered of the Senate takes up the bill (and not looking great for that).

Can you please share his tweet?
10-06-2020, 09:31 AM
Turbulent_Dragonfly

Quote:

Originally Posted by JoinedToAsk

Can you please share his tweet?

https://twitter.com/gsiskind/status/1313127722755948544
10-06-2020, 10:12 AM
idliman

Quote:

Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly

https://twitter.com/gsiskind/status/1313127722755948544

Could someone please share the text for those of us sitting behind a firewall where access to everything is banned? Thanks.
10-06-2020, 10:14 AM
drop2ocean

medicals

My PD is June 15 2010, EB3I. what are the pros and cons of doing medicals now ?
10-06-2020, 10:18 AM
Turbulent_Dragonfly

Quote:

Originally Posted by idliman

Could someone please share the text for those of us sitting behind a firewall where access to everything is banned? Thanks.

(((Greg Siskind)))
@gsiskind
·
Oct 5
The language was written before the new fiscal year started so I'm guessing it will be scrapped or altered of the Senate takes up the bill (and not looking great for that).
10-06-2020, 10:34 AM
idliman

Quote:

Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly

(((Greg Siskind)))
@gsiskind
·
Oct 5
The language was written before the new fiscal year started so I'm guessing it will be scrapped or altered of the Senate takes up the bill (and not looking great for that).

Thank You.
Mnuchin and Pelosi spke yesterday for an hour and they plan to talk today also. I don't think Rep. Grace Meng's SO killer amendment will be included. My guess is only the bare minimum accepted by both sides will be in the bill. So we can calm down about the SO killer language.
10-06-2020, 10:51 AM
srimurthy

Quote:

Originally Posted by drop2ocean

My PD is June 15 2010, EB3I. what are the pros and cons of doing medicals now ?

It is a no brainer to me. I am doing medical with Sep'2010 in EB2. EB3 Final Action dates are in Jan 2010, so they will definitely move and the medicals are valid for two years.
So not sure why you are even thinking.
10-06-2020, 10:52 AM
qesehmk

Quote:

Originally Posted by idliman

Thank You.
Mnuchin and Pelosi spke yesterday for an hour and they plan to talk today also. I don't think Rep. Grace Meng's SO killer amendment will be included. My guess is only the bare minimum accepted by both sides will be in the bill. So we can calm down about the SO killer language.

I had said this same thing a few weeks back that come Oct 1st, spillover will become real and congress will not harm EB nor override something that took place according to another law that it passed years back. Not impossible but quite improbable.

However what concerns me is that - in this whole discussion, we can see at least some FB interests are trying to push for their own interests. But from EB side, the only thing that may protect its interest is congress' own tendency to not do harm. This is walking on very thin ice for EB.
10-06-2020, 10:58 AM
idliman

This forum is unusually quite on predictions now a days. Congratulations to all who had the ability to file based on "DF". Here's are my predictions.
I don't see "DF" moving anymore (unless the FA dates move drastically).

From the Oct 2020 VB:

Quote:

EMPLOYMENT-based categories (potential monthly movement)

Employment First:
India: Rapid forward movement

Employment Second:
India: Rapid forward movement

Employment Third:
India: Rapid forward movement

The above final action date projections for the Family and Employment categories indicate what is likely to happen on a monthly basis through January. The determination of the actual monthly final action dates is subject to fluctuations in applicant demand and a number of other variables.

I think, it will be two months per bulletin for EB2I FA dates (Nov, Dec, Jan). By January 2021, EB2I FA should have advanced 6 months from Sept 1st 2009 to March 01, 2010. For EB3I, it should be at least 3 months per bulletin. By January 2021, EB3I FA should be around 15 October 2010. What will be interesting is that they will not see immediate demand in EB3I after 01APR2010 (The FA was current only this month for the first time). So do they start doing crazy movements in EB3I FA after it crosses 01APR2010? I have not seen check in report with CO for last month. Is he keeping a low profile till the elections ?
10-06-2020, 11:12 AM
mcmilers

Finally we are getting back to predictions in the predictions and calculations thread. I agree with your prediction on FA dates for EB2. Have we started seeing RFEs for EB2 folks whose FA date is current in this Oct?
10-06-2020, 11:36 AM
bones20

Quote:

Originally Posted by srimurthy

It is a no brainer to me. I am doing medical with Sep'2010 in EB2. EB3 Final Action dates are in Jan 2010, so they will definitely move and the medicals are valid for two years.
So not sure why you are even thinking.

what if (and it is near certain to happen), that they revoke the spill over? In my opinion (though I am quite novice), unless your PD is less than 6 months from current FAD, you are better off not doing medical.
10-06-2020, 11:49 AM
srimurthy

Quote:

Originally Posted by idliman

This forum is unusually quite on predictions now a days. Congratulations to all who had the ability to file based on "DF". Here's are my predictions.
I don't see "DF" moving anymore (unless the FA dates move drastically).

From the Oct 2020 VB:

I think, it will be two months per bulletin for EB2I FA dates (Nov, Dec, Jan). By January 2021, EB2I FA should have advanced 6 months from Sept 1st 2009 to March 01, 2010. For EB3I, it should be at least 3 months per bulletin. By January 2021, EB3I FA should be around 15 October 2010. What will be interesting is that they will not see immediate demand in EB3I after 01APR2010 (The FA was current only this month for the first time). So do they start doing crazy movements in EB3I FA after it crosses 01APR2010? I have not seen check in report with CO for last month. Is he keeping a low profile till the elections ?

EB2I I agree the rate of movement. But why do we think we will not see an immediate demand post APR2010 for EBI. We have these three months when PDs upto Jan/2015 can file for 485s assuming the filing dates remain the same till that period and that will show up in the demand. My guess would be come Jan the filing dates for EB3 will be rolled back with many porting numbers, and may be around 2012 or just they may stop honoring the filing dates and just take Final Action dates as eligible for Filing.
10-06-2020, 11:54 AM
srimurthy

Quote:

Originally Posted by bones20

what if (and it is near certain to happen), that they revoke the spill over? In my opinion (though I am quite novice), unless your PD is less than 6 months from current FAD, you are better off not doing medical.

Everything is a speculation. Ask people who files in 2012 and have done multiple medicals. We just reach out to our wallets if the medicals need to be redone. We shelled out so much, a few more hundreds is hardly worth the worry. What if the dates move and then will you wait for a RFE or do the paper work again? If we expect the EBI dates to not clear by 2021 then all this movement to Jan/2015 is to just ensure that we do multiple EADs, APs and Medicals and get the funding rolling.

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