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Based mainly on Trackitt numbers and some educated guesses, here is what I think happened in October.
Generally, a few late updates will increase the figure slightly.
EB1 ---- 2,300
EB2-WW - 3,900
EB2-I ---- 800
EB2-C ---- 250
EB3 ---- 3,000
EB4 ------ 850
EB5 ---- 1,000
Total - 12,100
Max Allowed in month (9%) - 12,600
The figures appear to be at least sensible, but I make no claims to their accuracy.
Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Nice to see some numbers after along time, especially with 485-Inventory delay.
If EB2I used 800 in October itself, then for December also EB2I is going to stay at 2004. Monthly allocation is 250 and in one month EB2I used 3 months numbers.
sportsfan,Quote:
Originally Posted by sportsfan33
You're welcome.
I would caution at taking the figures to literally. They are only meant to be indicative.Quote:
How do you deduce EB2-I used 800 numbers? I thought they were going by a monthly allocation. Does this mean we can expect a fair jump in the December bulletin (that seems contrary to the last word from CO).
For EB2-I, I am looking at the historical % between Trackitt approvals and actual numbers. I have to look at both EB2 and EB3 because most porters already had an I-485 pending in EB3. Fortunately they are quite similar. This gives a spread of 750 - 825.
I only look at Primary approvals in Trackitt and calculate from that baseline.
In October, to date, there are 37 EB2-I Trackitt approvals (corrected for those that still show in EB3 etc).
The breakdown by PD for the EB2-I approvals is:
PD --- No.
2001 --- 2
2002 --- 2
2003 -- 19
2004 -- 14
Total - 37
If there were only 250 approvals, then Trackitt would have to represent about 15% of all approved EB2-I cases, which is far higher than the historical number over several years. It is possible the % has risen slightly and I will amend the numbers if better info becomes available.
I don't think there is any way it is as low as 250. Given the numbers, there may be no further movement in the December VB either. That said, CO works in mysterious ways!
That's true, but it is a constrained backlog to January 1, 2012.Quote:
EB2-WW is mostly backlog, so if we subtract that from the equation, then both EB1 and EB2-WW point to a fairly large spillover later this year. What's your take on that?
November will also release more substantial EB2-WW backlog.
I think it is too early to say anything about EB2-WW, given the unusual circumstances.
I also think it is too early to talk about EB1. The approvals can be quite "lumpy". The numbers are also dominated by Indian EB1C approvals, so most EB1 approvals are quite poorly represented, especially EB1-WW in general.
The October EB1 approvals are slightly higher than the same period last year.
CO said that 10% of EB5 would be used in October. That is 940, so I have rounded up slightly.Quote:
EB5 number is absolutely crazy. How did you arrive at that number? Looks like there is not going to be any spillover whatsoever from EB5 this year.
EB4 is a pure guess based on maximum usage. I need to see what happened in FY2012. FY2011 was low, but it might have been a blip.
You can find more detail here.
Hope that helps.
from trackitt, murthy's article :http://www.murthy.com/2012/11/02/pri...ions-for-fy13/
Excess Visa Numbers Estimated for EB2 India and China
Overall, the expectations are that EB2 India and China will benefit from some excess visa numbers shifting from EB1 and EB2 ROW. However, the volume of such excess is expected to be even less in FY13 than it was in FY12. In FY12, EB2 India and China each received approximately 19,000 visa numbers. The vast majority of these were due to shifting excess numbers into EB2 India and China. At this time, the DOS estimates that a total of 13,000 visa numbers will be available to EB2 India and China in FY13. This is subject to change - either up or down - depending upon the usage in the other categories, as explained here.
In FY12, EB2 India and China each received approximately 19,000 visa numbers.
38k total to EB2IC in FY2012 WOW really:confused:
At this time, the DOS estimates that a total of 13,000 visa numbers will be available to EB2 India and China in FY13.
which is 10k to EB2I that should take EB2I to Jan2008 assuming porting is <=3k
Friends - sorry to steal attention from this thread. But can you please suggest charities for November donations using this site's ad revenues please? We will have about $100 to donate.
please reply HERE http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...-We-Made/page3
Thanks for sharing openaccount. Two more interesting things from the article
1. The estimate given as a best case scenario is that, by the end of FY13, EB2 India's cutoff date will advance to a new cutoff date, set at some point in early 2008.
2. Each month, the DOS reports receiving thousands of these requests connected to upgraded cases. Since EB3 is oversubscribed, regardless of country of chargeability, many of these cases are filed by those in EB3 ROW. .... The increase in cases shifting from EB3 to EB2 ROW increases demand in that category. The result is fewer excess numbers that can be shifted out of EB2 ROW to EB2 India and China.
Quote:
Originally Posted by openaccount
openaccount,Quote:
Originally Posted by openaccount
Thanks for that. Unfortunately , some of the language is quite ambiguous. I very much doubt that EB2-C received 19k last year. I think they mean EB2-IC received 19k between them. If so, that is quite a bit lower than I was expecting. 19k + 5.8k would have made sense.
At a 13k SOFAD level, EB2-C wouldn't use any spillover, so EB2-I would have 10.2k available. That is pretty much what I have been using to date.
That might leave EB2-I in Q4 2007, possibly very early 2008, depending on porting levels.
If the number is talking about 13k spillover then dates could move to April 2008 for EB2-I. At the moment, 13k SO seems a little optimistic.
Porting has become CO's [and everyone trying to predict PD movement]'s greatest headache. It seems pretty clear by now he has no idea how much is out there. This is surprising to me, and it all goes back to USCIS not compiling ANY statistics on I-140 approvals.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
There haven't been any Inventory updates either...
I have seen here and other forums that many enquiring with PDs of 2004/2005 are majority porters. But very few porters with PDs of 2006/7/8. If at all , will all these cases be added to demand at any time in future?
Quote:
Originally Posted by justvisiting
I think the focus has been off the correct type of porting. If the Murthy article is accurate then bulk of the porting is EB3-ROW porting. If we take what they call "thousands of upgrade applications per month" as just 1K per month that is 12K porting per year. If EB3-I porting is 3K per year that still leaves room for 9K EB3-ROW porting. This actually also explains what we were discussing couple of pages ago i.e. why does low PERM applications for ROW not reconcile with high number of EB2-ROW I-485s. I think high EB3-ROW porting explains that anomaly. PD for EB3-ROW has been between 2004-2006 last couple of years. Post 2007 EB3-ROWers (without EADs) would have been porting over this time and since EB2-ROW has been mostly current they would never have shown up in the demand data.
Since details for porting are not available this is just a theory and could be wrong but i do think that low ROW PERM numbers but high EB2-ROW usage does make it seem possible. So EB2-I could have been losing much more potential spillover to EB3-ROW (and not to EB3-I).
Quote:
Originally Posted by bvsamrat
GhostWriter,Quote:
Originally Posted by GhostWriter
That is not how I read the article.
I believe the bulk of porting comes from India, at a level much higher than you have indicated, for several reasons. I won't discuss that.
There certainly is ROW-M-P porting, but I think it is (currently) at a lower level.
Remember that CO really doesn't have any idea of the numbers.
For EB2-ROW / EB2-NIW-ROW (doesn't include M or P) adjusted Trackitt approvals to date, here is the PD year breakdown:
2007 -- 3
2008 -- 1
2009 -- 4
2010 -- 6
2011 - 61
2012 - 22
Total - 97
Some of the 2007 numbers (2) relate to Indians with Cross Chargeability to their spouse.
A further 7 of the cases 2007 through 2010 appear to be porting. Other cases appear to be caused by the long time it took to get PERM and I-140 approval. For some cases,it is not possible to tell due to lack of information.
The 2011 and 2012 PD cases are quite expected.
Hope the figures help.
Spec, below are the EB-WW (EB-ROW-MP) PERM numbers, expected I-485s using these numbers and actual EB2-WW approvals. The difference should be an indicator of porting. While all the PERMs filed in one year don't get GC issued in the same year, but since EB2-WW is current it should be within two years from PD in most cases. The average over years should even out the timing issue.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
I have assumed 70% of PERMs filed in EB-WW to be for EB2, 90% approval for I-140 (vs. 80% you assume for EB2-IC analysis) and dependent factor of 2. Also assumed zero demand destruction. This gives an overall factor of 1.26. Even with this factor there is a high gap in expected and actual approvals in EB2-WW for 2011 and 2012. So there is a possibility that there is high EB3-WW to EB2-WW porting at least since last two years.
(Rounded to nearest 1000)
Year---PERM-------Exp.485-----Approvals----Porting
2009---23K---------29K---------33K---------4K (~3.7K)
2010---19K---------24K---------27K---------4K (~3.8K)
2011---18K---------23K---------35K---------12K (~11.6K)
2012---22K---------27K---------34K*---------7K (~7.3K)
Avg.---20K---------26K---------32K---------7K (~6.6K)
* For 2012 approvals number is an estimate assuming no cut-off date were imposed on EB-WW. For 2009-2011 the approvals are actual numbers from the DOS visa reports (link).
The average porting estimate then for EB3-WW is 6.6K over last four years and it is 9.5K over last two years !!! Do you have any other explanation for the gap in the above table. 2008 did have a high number of (38K) PERMs for EB-WW but they would have been approved by the end of 2010 (at the latest).
The 100 sample points from Trackitt that you provided are giving us a range of +/- 3500. So if we take 11 cases (out of 9 certain and 5 suspects) as porting cases in your sample of 100 then it is telling us that actual porting number will be contained in the interval 350 to 7350 in total of 35000 approvals (with a fairly high level of certainity). The 7.3K number for 2012 in the table above does fall in your range estimate from Trackitt.
What would be your estimate of EB3-WW porting ?
EB2WW got 34K visas in 2012? Really? The SOFAD number for EB2IC do not match with above numbers IMO.Quote:
Originally Posted by GhostWriter
From initial reactions, your theory is wrong. For each and every porting case a new PERM is needed. Since, the PERM #s are consistently low, your theory does not hold. Also, EB3-ROW should show proportional lowering of demand - which it has not. One reason might be NIWs and an Indian interfiling for a different country of chargeability due to marriage to a non-Indian - which could result in larger demand for ROWs, and would bake in some factor of demand destruction for India.Quote:
Originally Posted by GhostWriter
Suninphx, For 2012 EB2WW got about 27K approvals in 9 months (as per Spec's estimate) before a cut off date was imposed. Prorated that would have easily crossed 34K. Alternatively you can add the 4K from the demand data and add another 3K for the people who were not able to file in last three months. Either way if a cut off date was not imposed EB2WW would have used entire 34K allotment. I will edit the post to note this point.Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
For 2011 the approvals are actual and can be found from the visa report (link). Total of 67K EB2 approvals of which 32K went to Eb2-IC and 35K to EB2-ROW. EB2-ROW actually used a little spillover in 2011. I haven't even added the CP cases in these approvals but they won't be a lot.
kd, i am only trying to understand the big gap between PERM and I485 for ROW. Can you explain the 19K gap in 2011 and 2012. I agree with you on PERM but the porting cases will not necessarily reduce EB3-WW demand. If these cases are post 2007 then they would not have filed I-485 yet in EB3. Is your alternate theory an increase in inter-country marriages in last two years ?Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
PERM and I-485 are not necessarily approved or adjudicated in the same calendar year or fiscal year they are filed. 2010 and 2011 saw faster PERM approvals and subsequently reduction in PERM backlogs. This resulted in higher visa demand and I-485 approvals for 2011 and 2012. The ripples just continue on. End of fiscal year 2012 saw retrogression for EB2-ROW so there will be higher demand in fiscal year 2013. And so it goes on.Quote:
Originally Posted by GhostWriter
If we get a full 2 years of consistent PERM processing, quick I485 approvals and no retrogression for EB2-ROW with low PERM numbers to begin with and if we still see high demand then something is up.
Is out!
http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_5803.html
No change for EB2-I
EB2-C advances to 22OCT07.
No forecasts in the VB, unfortunately.
UPDATE:
A forecast has now been added.
D. VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS
FAMILY-sponsored categories (monthly)
Worldwide dates:
F1: three or four weeks
F2A: four to six weeks
F2B: three to five weeks
F3: one or two weeks
F4: one or two weeks
EMPLOYMENT-based categories (monthly)
Employment First: Current
Employment Second:
Worldwide: Current
China: five to eight weeks
India: no movement
Employment Third:
Worldwide: three to five weeks
China: one to two months
India: up to two weeks
Mexico: three to five weeks
Philippines: one to three weeks
Employment Fourth: Current
Employment Fifth: Current*
*The following advisory is based strictly on the current demand situation. Since demand patterns can (and sometimes do) change over time, this should be considered a worst case scenario at this point.
It appears likely that a cut-off date will need to be established for the China Employment Fifth preference category at some point during second half of fiscal year 2013. Such action would be delayed as long as possible, since while number use may be excessive over a 1 to 5 month period, it could average out to an acceptable level over a longer (e.g., 4 to 9 month) period. This would be the first time a cut-off date has been established in this category, which is why readers are being provided with the maximum amount of advance notice regarding the possibility.
The above projections for the Family and Employment categories are for what could happen during each of the next few months based on current applicant demand patterns. The determination of the actual monthly cut-off dates is subject to fluctuations in applicant demand and a number of other variables which can change at any time. Those categories with a “Current” projection will remain so for the foreseeable future, with the possible exception of the China Employment Fifth preference category mentioned above.
This has been true for a while, and others might have pointed out this idiosyncrasy before, but EB2I is now behind EB3-ROW. Just wonderful...
Looks like this year CO is going to err on the side of caution and waste some visa #'s.
Err on the side of caution - yes. Waste visas - unlikely.Quote:
Originally Posted by bookworm
CO experimented with releasing spillover early last year (perhaps prompted by the need to move the COD forward) and it was an abysmal failure.
He seems to have returned to the normal pattern of releasing spillover relatively late in the FY.
Judging by USCIS ability to process cases last year, they seem quite capable of approving all potential spillover visas in a single month if required, especially as they are now pretty much all pre-adjudicated.
I missed the pre-adjudicated part in my thought process. Keeping my fingers crossed for the last qtr of this fiscal.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
They did not release the demand data. Any reason you think why that would be the case? Isint demand data released every month
There has been the odd month when it hasn't been published.Quote:
Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000
It's very annoying.
I have been trying to think about EB2-WW.
I just wanted to talk out loud, since it seems we're going to see quite uneven approvals through the FY.
To date we have seen the effect of retrogression for July through September 2012.
In October and November, those cases already submitted and adjudicated are now being approved. To date, that backlog looks to be about 7k and approvals seem to be slowing.
The other aspect is that for July through October, nobody has had a chance to submit an EB2-WW I-485, if we say that all pre 2012 PD cases had already submitted an I-485.
So, when the backlog is dealt with, there is likely to be a few months when there won't be many EB2-WW approvals.
Normally, assuming a 4-6 month adjudication time, cases that would normally have been submitted in July - October 2012 should be approved in the November 2012 - April 2013 period.
However, the earliest these could be submitted was actually November 2012, so they will likely be approved from March 2013 onwards. At this time, the number of approvals are likely to be very large, but it does seem to leave the possibility of a very slow period from December 2012 through February 2013.
It leaves approvals front and back loaded.
Possibly USCIS will try to adjudicate them faster, as they did for EB2-IC last year. However, 3 months seemed to be the quickest they could generally be dealt with.
Alternatively, USCIS may try to concentrate on other Categories during this "slack" period.
Knowing this, it may make it even more difficult for CO to consider releasing spillover early.
Thats good analysis makes sense. To add to that I think and correct me if I am wrong - In that same time period where EB2 WW is going to go up I think EB2 I approvals would be less than what they are today as they would have worked through the demand that they could not clear from 2012 for applications before sept 2004. At that time it would be the normal monthly intefiling requests and not what we have today which is - Normal interfiling requests + those that were not worked on when the dates were U. So may be just may be dates for EB2 I may move some in second quarter.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
The Visa bulletin is also out and no change in dates:
http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_5803.html
So the total EB2I inventory (from Demand Data) increased by 2100. Following is the breakdown in the increase:
PD in 2006 and before: +200
PD in 2007 and before: +600, -Differential for 2007 PDs: +400
PD in 2008 and before: +1100, Differential for 2008 PDs: +500
PD in 2009 and before: +1775, Differential for 2009 PDs: +675
PD in 2010 and before: +2100, Differential for 2010 PDs: +325
So, assuming that any changes in PDs in 2008 onwards is because of Pre-Adj - then it tells us that the increase of 1500 is due to Pre-Adj. Anything before PD in 2007 is surely a porting case - thats 200. Parts of 2007 PD can be porting as well - lets say half of it. Then we have 400 additions due to porting and 1700 due to new Pre-Adj. Now, we don't know whether any visas were issued during the month. If yes - then all of that would have gone to porting applications. If, for example, the monthly quota of 250 was issued - then we get total additions due to porting to 650 and due to Pre-Adj to 1700.
No movement in Dec VB is sad (what a difference an year makes - we were all flying high this time last year) and disappointing. The potential porting numbers are quite problematic. But, at least, we can take heart in the fact that EB1 and EB2ROW is current - so I guess we are accumulating spillovers every month - which will be available to us later in the FY barring an increase in EB1/EB2WW demand.
Doing the similar analysis for EB3I Demand Data - this time looking at reduction in numbers:
PD in 2002 or before: -250
PD in 2003 or before: -425, Differential for 2003 PDs: -175
PD in 2004 or before: -575, Differential for 2004 PDs: -150
PD in 2005 or before: -650, Differential for 2005 PDs: -75
PD in 2006 or before: -800, Differential for 2006 PDs: -150
PD in 2007 or before: -850, Differential for 2007 PDs: -50
Assuming that the 250 reduction in 2002 PD is due to regular visa issue, the rest (600) can be chalked up to porting. This compares well to the 650 estimate we have for porting using EB2I Demand Data. So may be 600-650 is a good estimate for monthly porting volume?
Only the 2006PD porting volume of 150 stands out as unusual. The rest of the numbers seem reasonable.
Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
Correct me if I'm wrong, but this doesn't count anyone with a post 2007 EB3 PD that would be porting, right?Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
There can't be any EB3I with PD beyond the 07/07 event in the Demand Data. EB3Is are not being pre-adjuducated like EB2I filings.
Quote:
Originally Posted by abcx13
Couldn't they directly show up in the EB2 demand data with a post-July 07 PD though?Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
AFAIK, Demand Data only shows cases that are Documentarily Qualified for a visa. So no - post-July'07 cases will not show in DD unless they have been Pre-Adj'ed.
Quote:
Originally Posted by abcx13
imdeng,Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
As you say, it is a net increase of 200 for cases before 2007.
By my calculations, about 700 porting cases were approved between the Demand Data publications.
That would put the gross increase at 900 cases for the month. I think the number is high because those cases with a pre September 2004 PD from when EB2-I was Unavailable are now having the final interfiling steps completed and a visa can be requested.
Currently there are 1,300 cases shown in the Demand data before 2007. My calculations show 900-950 porting cases already approved, so the total known about is therefore 2,200-2,250 at present.
Using Teddy's 500 cases per month for the remaining 10 months would add a further 5,000 and bring the total to around 7,250.
I really don't know what the true number will be, but I think it is in the right ball bark. There were about 1.3k cases already in previous figures. If that was normal backlog, the net number would be about 6k.
There will only be so many Porting cases per PD year, so to a certain extent, slow or no movement will constrain the numbers that can actually be approved. I have no idea what the number per PD year is.
Having said all the above, I could equally be totally wrong, but I thought I would share.
I don't understand - let's say you had an EB3 I140 approved post July 2007 but then didn't get to file I485. You then got a new PERM and had an EB2 I140 approved in 2008, 2009 or whenever. Now this EB2 application could be pre-adjudicated and would still show up in EB2 demand data but with a post-July 2007 PD. This would still be porting but I think your math is not counting this.Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
Spec if 6k is just for Pds prior to Sep2004, as dates move(when ever that happens) porting will be proportional for those years(post Sep2004). As interfiling does not take much time when PD is current they will be eventually added to DD which would pull PD further behind.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
I think your number of 900 may be high. The reason is this - When dates were U the interfiling requests made would have been added to the DD by USCIS. So when they released the DD for october the interfilings made in the months prior when dates were U should have been in the DD. The DD in october had 1350 as the number before 2007. If the number is 900 then the DD for october would have reflected that. It would have been a much bigger number than 1350. I think and this is just my guess - as they finish processing the interfiling requests made last fiscal that is - between june and sept 2012 - they will move the dates. That may be sometime next quarter.
bhagwat, Interfiling requests are not allowed if the dates are U/retrogressed. Priority Dates must be current .Quote:
Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000
Are you sure about it? Cause if you look at the trackitt trackers for interfiling I see interfiling letters to link cases being sent in august and sept and being acted upon by USCIS. If they are linking cases when dates are U then they must be added to the DD. Also if what you are saying is true then all increases before 2007 would be due to pre 2004 requests. is that correct? since post 2005 is not current.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
You may be right here - But I posed the same question to Ron Gotcher and he replied that cases between May and Sept when dates were U were interlinked then and added to DD -
Me - Hi Ron,
The upgrade cases that u are talking abt in the case where the applicant has a pending 485 I guess you are talking abt interfling right? On an average how fast are those cases added to the demand data. There must be lots of 485 interfiling requests backed up between May and October right? When do you expect to see them in the demand data. Also how much demand do you think will be consumed by porting cases pre 2007 and how much Spillover and fall down are you expecting this year considering that demand for EB1 and EB 2 WW has increased
Ron - When a case gets upgraded, the USCIS is supposed to report the new demand to the Visa Office and that number is added to the demand data. If there is a time lag, it is probably on the order of one or two months from the time the applicant makes the request until the time they do the upgrade. What is unknown presently is how quickly the USCIS takes the EB3 numbers off the board. Some of us suspect that they aren't doing this and the EB3 backlog is falsely inflated.
Me - Thanks for clarifying this. So this means that theoretically even if the dates were U between May and October most or at least some of the interfiling requests that have been made post May have been added to the demand data already. right?
Ron - Yes, that is correct.
bhagwat, Please refer to my earlier post in this context here ....http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...7904#post27904