EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

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Originally Posted by gc_usa

They have assigned 5.6k quota to EB2 IC. they can do legally but can't go more than 28.6 % of total EB2 in Q1. so Nov will hold them back marching forward. Either DEC or JAN (depend where they can allocate Qtr spillover visas , either in last month or first month of next qtr ) they will make a one shot final big move. I predict it will go all the way up to June - Sep 2008 then.

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You are correct about the rules, but what is happening is interesting. Right now the only way to gauge how many numbers they have actually allocated is by the number of people who became current in Oct and are being approved. I just saw 2 approvals on IV. If we see approvals for those who are current it’s an indicator that that part of the law has been condoned and they have allocated the entire cap in October itself. Lets wait and watch, the VB should be out by Friday.

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Originally Posted by ChampU

I called my lawyer about the possibility of my PD (02/22/2008) becoming current this month. The paralegal said that they discussed the Demand Data in their meeting this morning. Her advice was along the lines of what gc_usa has stated. There is a very slim chance of it becoming current this month but it would be current by the end of Q2-2012, for sure, thereby allowing enough time the processing of the GC by the end of the FY.
Based on what I have read on this forum, I already (sort of) knew that. I felt reassured by her "professional advice" but then she dropped the bomb of uncertainty "You never know".
Back to square one.. Visa bulletin time.. keep your hopes high but be prepared for a heart break..

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Thanks Champu for confirming.

I am much more confident now. We heard from some site other day , one of top lawyer also mentioned same, I got news from other resource too that date are not moving much in Nov. In DEC and JAN it will. DEC is 6th month for people who got NVC fee notices up to Jan - Mar 2008. Chances are almost 100% for Jan - March 2008 for DEC unless EB1 demand spike up and DOS can allocate only 2k spillover from EB5. They need at least 1.5k from EB1 after Q1 spillover.

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Originally Posted by bieber

Is it possible that many of the labor substituions filed with June-July2007 time frame got rejected?

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On the labor substitutions people would retain their old PD, but even I believe that the number of denials or abandonment is high and part of the reduction can be attributed to data cleanup. Some people may have also upgraded to EB1 or been approved through their spouses.

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Originally Posted by waitingEB2

I hope dates move fast. The check list that I got from my attorney to file I-485 do not require any pay stubs or W2s. I checked with them and they say it is not necessary and they do not want to provide any thing more than required. is it ok to apply for
I-485 without pay stubs and two years of W2 ???

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Look at the official instructions for filing 485 to clarify your doubts. I checked and it didn't look like they ask us to submit paystubs or w2s. But don't take my word for it. Go check it yourself.

Hi gc_usa,

I do not think this number belongs to 2012 quota and the reason is if that would have been the case then China demand would have been much less. since China demand is not reduced significantly so seems like this might be from fy2011 as sofad or as someone mentioned due to rejections filed in that period. your thoughts..

Thanks

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Originally Posted by gc_usa

DOS allocated all 5.6k visas on OCT , legally they can do it but they cannot assign more than 28.6 % for EB2 total in Q1, so DOS now has some 4-5k left visas and they cannot assign any or all of those to EB2 IC otherwise EB2 will get cutoff date for Dec month.

So DOS will wait for DEC month or Jan ( I don't know if they can assign in last month of qtr or first month of next qtr ) to get some spill over from EB5 and EB1 to satisfy remaining 3k demand. It will be up to DOS to go where ever they want to go. They might have got I 140 data from USCIS or they can go based on past demand data they have and move forward.

Since we know that each month have average 1.5-2.5 k demand for EB2 I/C for 2006,2007 they will go with 2k per month and move at least 10-12 month from July 2007. Even I think if single instance of NVC receipt for Sep 2008 case was right then date will go up to Sep 2008.

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Originally Posted by RRRRRR

Hi gc_usa,

I do not think this number belongs to 2012 quota and the reason is if that would have been the case then China demand would have been much less. since China demand is not reduced significantly so seems like this might be from fy2011 as sofad or as someone mentioned due to rejections filed in that period. your thoughts..

Thanks

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China has higher demand in July 2007 , almost three time than any other month

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Originally Posted by gc_usa

China has higher demand in July 2007 , almost three time than any other month

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Interesting...does chinese know that it is going to be current at that time in 2007? or r they labor substitutions?

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

You are correct about the rules, but what is happening is interesting. Right now the only way to gauge how many numbers they have actually allocated is by the number of people who became current in Oct and are being approved. I just saw 2 approvals on IV. If we see approvals for those who are current it’s an indicator that that part of the law has been condoned and they have allocated the entire cap in October itself. Lets wait and watch, the VB should be out by Friday.

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What is the approval trend on trackitt?

I asked a question of this kind last month itself, like what if there are some leftout visas from 2011 with no Row demand ready to go in hand . But Veni replied me, it is not possible to assign them to PDs which are not current.

This scenario of Dos Vs USCIS game is like people selling cattle in village market , closing both the parties' hands with a cloth and counting fingers (seen in movies). Nobody knows what is happening whatever it is .

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Originally Posted by tackle

Look at the official instructions for filing 485 to clarify your doubts. I checked and it didn't look like they ask us to submit paystubs or w2s. But don't take my word for it. Go check it yourself.

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Lawyers ask for it to show that you have been continuously employed. At least that is what my lawyer said.

A lot Chinese did NIW then.

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Originally Posted by soggadu

Interesting...does chinese know that it is going to be current at that time in 2007? or r they labor substitutions?

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The reason for that is there are a huge number of NIW EB2 for China. Many post docs filed EB2 in that month. As what I said before, there are tons of post docs from China.These guys were not qualified for EB1, so they rushed into NIW. For Indian EB2, most of them are working professionals in companies.

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Originally Posted by soggadu

Interesting...does chinese know that it is going to be current at that time in 2007? or r they labor substitutions?

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Originally Posted by Feb2008

A lot Chinese did NIW then.

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hmm...unfortunately/fortunately without post doc most of us are not allowed to do them....NIW... keeping india numbers low...

Yes, Mr.CO is totally unpredictable.

When he says there is no movement, then we will see huge movement.

When he says there will be some movement, then we will see no movement.

What he says is usually contrary to the reality. Reverse his words, we will get the truth.

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Originally Posted by gchopeful123

Lol... qblogfan, I really love the way you are constantly after Mr. CO :)

Good luck to you and us all for the Nov VB.

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Originally Posted by qblogfan

Yes, Mr.CO is totally unpredictable.

When he says there is no movement, then we will see huge movement.

When he says there will be some movement, then we will see no movement.

What he says is usually contrary to the reality. Reverse his words, we will get the truth.

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Qblogfan...looks like you can write a biography on CO... lol...

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Originally Posted by qblogfan

Yes, Mr.CO is totally unpredictable.

When he says there is no movement, then we will see huge movement.

When he says there will be some movement, then we will see no movement.

What he says is usually contrary to the reality. Reverse his words, we will get the truth.

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Sounds like the classic puzzle.. At a fork on a village road, there are two people standing.. both named CO.. you can ask only 2 questions and find out which way would the VB would go..What should your questions be.. :-)

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Originally Posted by ChampU

Sounds like the classic puzzle.. At a fork on a village road, there are two people standing.. both named CO.. you can ask only 2 questions and find out which way would the VB would go..What should your questions be.. :-)

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reminds me of this paradox - Schrödinger's cat [http://physicsworld.com/cws/article/news/2815 ]

So Qblogfan as per your logic, CO said in AILA conference that there is a zero chance of repeating 2007 scenario , making the COD current is impossible , Is the reverse going to be true?

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Originally Posted by qblogfan

Yes, Mr.CO is totally unpredictable.

When he says there is no movement, then we will see huge movement.

When he says there will be some movement, then we will see no movement.

What he says is usually contrary to the reality. Reverse his words, we will get the truth.

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Let's start the refresh game now.:D

http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabull...vember2011.pdf

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

On the labor substitutions people would retain their old PD, but even I believe that the number of denials or abandonment is high and part of the reduction can be attributed to data cleanup. Some people may have also upgraded to EB1 or been approved through their spouses.

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Also I think they might have sent out employment verification letter requests to some applicants since these PDs are so old, and on failure of getting a response, finally sent a NOID or denial.

The request for an employment verification letter for old pre-adjudicated 485s might be compared to a ping call to check if the interface is still active.

Just a theory, since we are wondering on the data cleanup idea.

Can this be some FB visas spilled over...

That surely reminds me of the saying (no offence) "Geek shall inherit the earth".

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Originally Posted by belmontboy

reminds me of this paradox - Schrödinger's cat [http://physicsworld.com/cws/article/news/2815 ]

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Originally Posted by belmontboy

reminds me of this paradox - Schrödinger's cat [http://physicsworld.com/cws/article/news/2815 ]

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:D

let me throw in one of my favorites fellow physics lover.

In VB mechanics, the Heisenberg uncertainty principle states a fundamental limit on the accuracy with which certain pairs of physical properties of a particle, such as SOFAD and movement, can be simultaneously known. In other words, the more precisely one property is measured, the less precisely the other can be controlled, determined, or known.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncertainty_principle

There is one more: The more closer to equilibrium one gets, the more unstable the system becomes. It's like balance of the pen on its point or the nib. If it does get balanced exactly, it's perfect equilibrium, but even the infinitesimally small deviation from it, it's highly unstable.

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Originally Posted by sha_kus

Can this be some FB visas spilled over...

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None of the FB categories were current. If it is FB visas, then I think someone will have to answer an angry ombudsman or immigration organization etc, because it means some agency messed up and did not utilize FB properly. This would be my interpretation.

Thanks....

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

Use the one on your I-140 approval notice, that would be my advise.

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one of the post in other forum
if 2+2 = 4 then VB date should move into 2008, but if 2+2 = -3.412, then what? CO has his own math...

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Originally Posted by evoori

Thanks....

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Ideally a person only gets one A # ever. If there are more than one, what they do is at the time of finalizing GC, they merge all your different "identities" and give you a final A #, which is based on the I-140.

For eg: I have a A# on my OPT card after my studies here, and a different A # on my I-140 approval notice. My lawyer is going to use/already uses (used it on my H1 extension), the A # on the I-140 approval.

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

:D

let me throw in one of my favorites fellow physics lover.

In VB mechanics, the Heisenberg uncertainty principle states a fundamental limit on the accuracy with which certain pairs of physical properties of a particle, such as SOFAD and movement, can be simultaneously known. In other words, the more precisely one property is measured, the less precisely the other can be controlled, determined, or known.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncertainty_principle

There is one more: The more closer to equilibrium one gets, the more unstable the system becomes. It's like balance of the pen on its point or the nib. If it does get balanced exactly, it's perfect equilibrium, but even the infinitesimally small deviation from it, it's highly unstable.

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Some how your post reminded me of BigB physics:

"You See. The Coefficient of the Linear, is juxtapositioned, by the haemoglobin of the atmospheric pressure in the country".

This is CM's analysis from US non-immgrant blogspot, credit to CM:

"Interesting? …may be not!!! In order to justify movement in r October VB of about 5100, DOS had to remove those numbers from the demand data. That does not mean in reality those visa are already allocated to the application. My perspective about this is nothing but number game. In order to move dates for next VBs, they have to reduce these numbers; and more surprisingly these numbers will reappear again to justify retrogression in January demand data (as long as DOS wants to intake new demand in 2 months) .
If they will really end up using 5600 annual quota for approving October cases then this would mean movement for rest of the year will only based on available quarterly spillover. This may not be good because then this mean that next movement will only happen as our friend suggested i.e. two big movement in Dec and Jan & then retrogression until July-August.
We will know in few weeks what DOS strategy is.
a) If these visa numbers were really allocated for Oct approvals then we should expect no movement next VB and we have to wait when qtrly spillover will be available.
b) If numbers where just removed to justify the movement for intake for FY 2012 and those numbers will reappear in next few demand data, then we should expect some big leap-ass movement in Nov VB."

I think the VB will be released sometime this week. There will not be any movement in November VB. By next month they will have better idea of how many more applications are pending before July 15, 2007 which will include PWMB. There will be BTM in December VB based on that data.

Why would be CO so kind to move dates first to July and then justify it with false information when he infact did nothing in August bulletin

that blog analysis seems unreal

Cumulative All Other
Demand Prior To China India Countries Grand Total
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January 1, 2007 0 25 0 25
January 1, 2008 1,525 1,150 0 2,675
January1, 2011 1,600 1,275 125 3,000
================================================== ===

What this 3,000 number represent?
Does it means that DOS only have 3K application pre-approved and ready to assign a GC number?
OR It means something else...

The whole scenario where china demand is lower than India is fishy. I can't buy into it. Something is wrong here.

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Originally Posted by skpanda

Possible but i can't explain why would India get 4K+ and China get 1.5K+?

This is not spillover that they would go by PD unless ofcourse this came out of FY 2011.

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Spec this is agreeable, provided that between 1st and 4th October, DoS has set aside those many numbers from 2012 quota towards backlog. An unusual step to say the least.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

The difference between the November DD and October DD shows the movement expected to happen in October.

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This is quite sensible explanation. If they move dates based on qly spillover (a first for DoS!!) then they don't have to make the category current. They can simply move the dates by the amount of spillover. Secondly it would also mean they can wait november and december out and then move dates in January or February. And then again in April or May.

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Originally Posted by gc_usa

DOS allocated all 5.6k visas on OCT , legally they can do it but they cannot assign more than 28.6 % for EB2 total in Q1, so DOS now has some 4-5k left visas and they cannot assign any or all of those to EB2 IC otherwise EB2 will get cutoff date for Dec month.

So DOS will wait for DEC month or Jan ( I don't know if they can assign in last month of qtr or first month of next qtr ) to get some spill over from EB5 and EB1 to satisfy remaining 3k demand. It will be up to DOS to go where ever they want to go. They might have got I 140 data from USCIS or they can go based on past demand data they have and move forward.

Since we know that each month have average 1.5-2.5 k demand for EB2 I/C for 2006,2007 they will go with 2k per month and move at least 10-12 month from July 2007. Even I think if single instance of NVC receipt for Sep 2008 case was right then date will go up to Sep 2008.

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Well ... if the demand data is dated Oct 4th, then they must have applied significant number (can somebody have prior month demand data and calculate exact number please?) in 4 days or at least set aside that much. Or otherwise basically the SOFAD was bigger in 2011 coupled with the fact that many people simply left GC and DoS could cancel those applications. Depending on how the demand data was reduced (2012 or 2011 numbers) the possibility of making it current can't be denied. At the least we know for sure that DoS recognizes what we have said over and over that by Q2 2012 the dates must move to Jan 2008. But looking at demand data I too got excited! Lets see if CO's VB bulletin pulls the Shrodinger CAT. On another physics side note - i think chaos theory could be quite useful in predicting VB movement and catastrophe theory will useful in explaining events like 2007 fiasco!!

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Originally Posted by soggadu

wow wow wow...Q... r u serious? BTM or MKCK ( maa ki!!!!...current kardo)?????

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Can we expect the bulletin released today evening around 3.45 EST, just like last month's same day DD-VB release?

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Spec this is agreeable, provided that between 1st and 4th October, DoS has set aside those many numbers from 2012 quota towards backlog. An unusual step to say the least.

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Q,

I think it is more an estimate of what will happen over the whole of the month, rather than the situation when it is published. The same was true for the large movements last year and we suspect not all those cases were actually approved.

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This is quite sensible explanation. If they move dates based on qly spillover (a first for DoS!!) then they don't have to make the category current. They can simply move the dates by the amount of spillover. Secondly it would also mean they can wait november and december out and then move dates in January or February. And then again in April or May.

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I agree. Even with the COD movement to date, enough preadjudicated cases, let alone adding porting, are available to use the entire EB2-IC initial allocation.

Also CO said in the October VB that the forward movement was purely to generate demand:

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The rapid forward movement is intended to generate demand based on new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services offices, which currently accounts for over 85% of all Employment-based number use. Once the level of demand increases sufficiently, it may be necessary to slow or stop the cut-off movement, and a retrogression of the cut-offs at some point during the year is a distinct possibility.

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CO is aware that significant demand exists beyond the current backlog. If made Current, Retrogression would not be a "distinct possibility" - it would be a certainty!! "Slowing" or "stopping" doesn't even come into the equation. I think that means a controlled forward movement, as we have been discussing.

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Well ... if the demand data is dated Oct 4th, then they must have applied significant number (can somebody have prior month demand data and calculate exact number please?) in 4 days or at least set aside that much. Or otherwise basically the SOFAD was bigger in 2011 coupled with the fact that many people simply left GC and DoS could cancel those applications. Depending on how the demand data was reduced (2012 or 2011 numbers) the possibility of making it current can't be denied. At the least we know for sure that DoS recognizes what we have said over and over that by Q2 2012 the dates must move to Jan 2008. But looking at demand data I too got excited! Lets see if CO's VB bulletin pulls the Shrodinger CAT. On another physics side note - i think chaos theory could be quite useful in predicting VB movement and catastrophe theory will useful in explaining events like 2007 fiasco!!

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The changes between the October and November Demand Data Reports were:

China -- 1,650
India -- 3,725

Total -- 5,375

Current Trackitt Trend
EB1-C - 4
EB3 - 2
EB2 ROW - 5
EB2 - 9

Out of the 11 approvals 1 is a PWMB case, 4 are porting cases. This leaves 4 cases which became current in Oct and got approved. Overall the Eb2 approval trend seems to be good its split evenly between the newly current cases and older cases.

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Current Trackitt Trend
EB1-C - 4
EB3 - 2
EB2 ROW - 5
EB2 - 9

Out of the 11 approvals 1 is a PWMB case, 4 are porting cases. This leaves 4 cases which became current in Oct and got approved. Overall the Eb2 approval trend seems to be good its split evenly between the newly current cases and older cases.

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so what do you project for this bulletin from this?

Guys, I had a question regarding I-485 filing. I would appreciate any help.

I am EB2-I (PD: 10/10/2007) waiting to file I-485. I quit employer A (who filed my PERM/I-140) to join employer B in 2008. Last month employer B laid off 300 ppl and I was one of them, so I rejoined employer A. My H1-B transfer is still pending. If my PD becomes current, will I be able to file for I-485 through employer A (even though my h1b transfer is still pending). It would really suck if I had to wait till my h1b transfer was approved, which could take several months !!!

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Originally Posted by bhayzone

Guys, I had a question regarding I-485 filing. I would appreciate any help.

I am EB2-I (PD: 10/10/2007) waiting to file I-485. I quit employer A (who filed my PERM/I-140) to join employer B in 2008. Last month employer B laid off 300 ppl and I was one of them, so I rejoined employer A. My H1-B transfer is still pending. If my PD becomes current, will I be able to file for I-485 through employer A (even though my h1b transfer is still pending). It would really suck if I had to wait till my h1b transfer was approved, which could take several months !!!

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As far as I know, you can. Your GC is for future employment and hence you should be able to apply for 485. Double check with your lawyer.

Hey same PD for me too

Approval Notice of I-140, that you have, is all is needed to attach to I-485 application.

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Originally Posted by needid

one off topic question
Do we(Employee) receive original I-140 approval? I have only approval notice, Never saw the original I-140, according our admin guy they(Employer) would get only approval notice.It looks like for filing I-485,we don't need original I-140, if one exist, we just need,
--Approval notice for I-140, Immigrant Petition for Alien Worker;

Anybody thinks otherwise.

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