EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

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11-09-2011, 10:40 AM
asankaran

Why is whatever metric they are using for set cut off date for "ROW" it is current but for India and China they have to make SFM and BTM ? On what basis ? Why do they need to biased towards us and why do all of us have to agree and accept the bias ? If they are following the law, they should follow it or if they are using some other data point they should share the same.

Quote:

Originally Posted by tackle

Please keep in mind that Demand of 0 on Demand-Data pdf doesn't mean that they don't have any demand. The numbers that show up on "Demand Data" are those that are pre-adjudicated and waiting for a Visa# to become available. If a visa# is available then the application will never show up on Demand-Data.

Having said that, I do believe that dates will move significantly (Mar 08) on Dec bulletin. But beyond that, I don't think we'll see any similar significant movements (there could be smaller movements) for the rest of current fiscal year.
11-09-2011, 10:50 AM
tackle

Quote:

Originally Posted by asankaran

Why is whatever metric they are using for set cut off date for "ROW" it is current but for India and China they have to make SFM and BTM ? On what basis ? Why do they need to biased towards us and why do all of us have to agree and accept the bias ? If they are following the law, they should follow it or if they are using some other data point they should share the same.

I don't think there is a bias. It's just that the number of people migrating from China and India is too high when compared to other countries. The total available visas is split equally across all countries. So, every country receives the same share. So, there is no bias. There are bills targeted towards removal of this per country limits(quota). But in my opinion, I don't think the current system is going to change any time soon. The people in congress can't even get together to do something good for their own people. The last thing they'll be worried about is immigration reform.
11-09-2011, 10:50 AM
vizcard

Quote:

Originally Posted by asankaran

Why is whatever metric they are using for set cut off date for "ROW" it is current but for India and China they have to make SFM and BTM ? On what basis ? Why do they need to biased towards us and why do all of us have to agree and accept the bias ? If they are following the law, they should follow it or if they are using some other data point they should share the same.

They are following the law. Their first order of business is to keep EB1 and EB2 ROW current. IF and only IF they can be kept current, the remaining visas move down to EB2 I/C... that's why its called "spill over". When demand is less than or very close to (base allocation+SO), then we can expect a SFM or BTM.
11-09-2011, 10:57 AM
sreddy

Thank you Teddy. Considering demand data is almost negligible, if CO wants inventory around 30-35k (as we earlier thought), date reaching 1st NOV 2008 by this summer is looking possible to me. What do you think?

Quote:

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

I believe that quarterly spillover is already happening so some cases may never show up. The newly filed cases are most likely not ready yet for approvals but they may get approved as soon as they are ready. So as long as the demand data remains low its a good sign.
11-09-2011, 11:11 AM
wantgcnow

Per Oct 2011 demand data EB2I Prior to Jan 2008 was 4875. Per Dec 2011 demand data EB2I Prior to Jan 2008 is 50. Does this mean they have issued 4825 visas just in Octobe
11-09-2011, 11:12 AM
sandeep11

No. It means that they are the ones that are Preadjudicated (All checks done) and ready to to be given a visa number when available.

Quote:

Originally Posted by polapragada

So you are saying demand data means Preadjudicated (or) applications validated for documents completeness (Say initial Review)? May be!
11-09-2011, 11:15 AM
tackle

Quote:

Originally Posted by wantgcnow

Per Oct 2011 demand data EB2I Prior to Jan 2008 was 4875. Per Dec 2011 demand data EB2I Prior to Jan 2008 is 50. Does this mean they have issued 4825 visas just in October

I believe so.
11-09-2011, 11:24 AM
yesman

Beyond Dec DD/VB?

When do you guys think the demand for EB2IC will go back up. The new inventory is only starting to build this month (Nov). Would the applications not have to be documentarily qualified to show up as demand. I'm guessing that will take another 2-3 months. If this is all true, would CO not have free reign in moving dates in the next 2-3 months until demand is up again? And, then retrogress?

So, it strikes me that people all the way into second half of 2008 have a HIGH probability of filing 485 within the next 2-3 months. Or at least, the demand for visa numbers is NOT going to tie CO's hands. Thoughts?
11-09-2011, 11:26 AM
bieber

The demand data won't spike up atleast till another 2 months, looks like Dec, Jan, Feb bulletins will have significant movement as forecasted
11-09-2011, 11:28 AM
krishnav

Gurus,

Could be a naive question...sorry not an expert with the demand data stuff.
Assuming that the demand is less, how would it work for people who applied for EAD and GC in on Nov 1.
Would this only be pertaining to Priority dates movement or also getting GC faster aswell??

Please shed some light.
11-09-2011, 11:29 AM
veni001

Quote:

Originally Posted by leo4ever

Demand data is released.

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

Leo,
Wake-up.
11-09-2011, 11:30 AM
kd2008

Based on the new demand data technically they should make EB2 current for all. Lets see what happens.
11-09-2011, 11:32 AM
veni001

Quote:

Originally Posted by krishnav

Gurus,

Could be a naive question...sorry not an expert with the demand data stuff.
Assuming that the demand is less, how would it work for people who applied for EAD and GC in on Nov 1.
Would this only be pertaining to Priority dates movement or also getting GC faster aswell??

Please shed some light.

Faster GC for cases already pre-adjudicated, for new filers it mainly depends on processing time as well any case specific issues (Example: RFE)
11-09-2011, 11:36 AM
veni001

Quote:

Originally Posted by kd2008

Based on the new demand data technically they should make EB2 current for all. Lets see what happens.

Theoretically that's correct but we will see the game plan in next few hours.

Remember DOS/USCIS doesn't have to move dates based on estimated SOFAD, assuming that EB2IC already received their regular FY2012 allocation.
11-09-2011, 11:38 AM
krishnav

Quote:

Originally Posted by veni001

Faster GC for cases already pre-adjudicated, for new filers it mainly depends on processing time as well any case specific issues (Example: RFE)

Thanks Veni,

But that exactly was my question. When demand is less, does that mean the processing times get faster becasue there are less applications than they can handle assuming they work at the same pace as they normally do??
11-09-2011, 11:40 AM
kd2008

Quote:

Originally Posted by veni001

Theoretically that's correct but we will see the game plan in next few hours.

Remember DOS/USCIS doesn't have to move dates based on estimated SOFAD, assuming that EB2IC already received their regular FY2012 allocation.

You are right Veni. May be that is why they moved the dates and approved so many cases. If India and China have already consumed their annual quota then DOS won't be obliged to make them current. Aha! Very smart CO, very smart!
11-09-2011, 11:41 AM
veni001

Quote:

Originally Posted by krishnav

Thanks Veni,

But that exactly was my question. When demand is less, does that mean the processing times get faster becasue there are less applications than they can handle assuming they work at the same pace as they normally do??

Krishnav,
Want to re-iterate that EB2IC demand is only a fraction of the workload for USCIS, may not have any impact at-all on service center 485 processing times!
11-09-2011, 11:43 AM
veni001

Quote:

Originally Posted by kd2008

You are right Veni. May be that is why they moved the dates and approved so many cases. If India and China have already consumed their annual quota then DOS won't be obliged to make them current. Aha! Very smart CO, very smart!

I believe DOS/USCIS learned their lesson in 2007, not using enough(81%) EB visas before Q4!
11-09-2011, 11:44 AM
vizcard

Quote:

Originally Posted by krishnav

Thanks Veni,

But that exactly was my question. When demand is less, does that mean the processing times get faster becasue there are less applications than they can handle assuming they work at the same pace as they normally do??

depends on where you are in teh queue and how you define processing time. If you are closer to the front it won't make a difference. If you at the back then yes, you would get it sooner with lower demand.
11-09-2011, 11:46 AM
krishnav

Quote:

Originally Posted by veni001

Krishnav,
Want to re-iterate that EB2IC demand is only a fraction of the workload for USCIS, may not have any impact at-all on service center 485 processing times!

Thanks for the clarification Veni.
11-09-2011, 11:48 AM
ChampU

Quote:

Originally Posted by veni001

Faster GC for cases already pre-adjudicated, for new filers it mainly depends on processing time as well any case specific issues (Example: RFE)

I am not sure what 'Pre-Adjudicated" would mean in the current scenario.

The term made perfect sense for the folks who turned in their applications in July 2007. The USCIS had almost 4 years to work on those documents and complete the pre-adjudication process and just wait for the visa numbers to be available.

Most of the applicants who would get their GCs in FY2012 would have filed in late FY2011 or in FY2012. Going by current trends/predictions, the dates would move in Q1 and possibly Q2 and then would halt or retrogress for the remainder of the year, unless demand is exhausted.
The 2007 model was "Allow every1, hold and process (Pre-Adjudicate),approve GCs based on visa number availability".
The current model seems more like a "Generate Manageable Demand - Hold and Process - Approve - Repeat process for next FY".
11-09-2011, 11:58 AM
veni001

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChampU

I am not sure what 'Pre-Adjudicated" would mean in the current scenario.

The term made perfect sense for the folks who turned in their applications in July 2007. The USCIS had almost 4 years to work on those documents and complete the pre-adjudication process and just wait for the visa numbers to be available.

Most of the applicants who would get their GCs in FY2012 would have filed in late FY2011 or in FY2012. Going by current trends/predictions, the dates would move in Q1 and possibly Q2 and then would halt or retrogress for the remainder of the year, unless demand is exhausted.
The 2007 model was "Allow every1, hold and process (Pre-Adjudicate),approve GCs based on visa number availability".
The current model seems more like a "Generate Manageable Demand - Hold and Process - Approve - Repeat process for next FY".

ChampU,

In current scenario pre-adjudication depends on # of new EB2IC applications received Vs processed Vs visas allocated on a monthly basis.

Remember once regular FY2012 quota for EB2IC is consumed, then EB2IC is at the mercy of SOFAD which will depends on several factors! (Ex: Monthly/Quarterly limits/allocations)
11-09-2011, 12:19 PM
ChampU

Quote:

Originally Posted by veni001

ChampU,

In current scenario pre-adjudication depends on # of new EB2IC applications received Vs processed Vs visas allocated on a monthly basis.

Remember once regular FY2012 quota for EB2IC is consumed, then EB2IC is at the mercy of SOFAD which will depends on several factors! (Ex: Monthly/Quarterly limits/allocations)

Veni,

Thanks for the clarification.

Going by the ball part estimate of about 2.5k applications per month and current per country max of about 3k, folks with PDs within 30-45 days of 07/15/2007 (the cut-off date at the begining of FY2012) would get their visas as a part of regular FY2012 quota. So folks with PDs after 08/15/2007 are dependent on the SOFAD for their visa numbers.

Is that a rational assumption?

Assuming a SOFAD of about 30k:

If QSP is happening, 7.5k applications would get their visas at the end of each Quarter. So, by the end of Q1-2012, the applications before 15th Nov would be pre-adjudicated (3 months from 08/15). The dates would be 02/15/2008 at end of Q2, 05/15/2008 at the end of Q3 and 08/15/2008 at the end of Q4.

If QSP is not happening, all the applications would be "pre-adjudicated" and when the SO season hits, the dates would jump around mid-Q3 and Q4.

I know there are a lot of variables that could blow this model away.. but it kind of makes sense to me.

Thanks again!
11-09-2011, 12:43 PM
sha_kus

Does QSP give more numbers to IC or the Year End Spillover?
11-09-2011, 12:51 PM
mysati

Significance of Zero Demand Data - EB2-I/C

I think this FY's spillover model is significant from the following perspective:

From what I remember/ read somewhere, during the 2007 fiasco, USCIS/DoS-CO had assured the ombudsman that no new GCs (for EB2-I/C) beyond the 2007 cut off date will be issued until the backlog accumulated during the fiasco is cleared. That is the reason we are seeing QSP or Monthly SP or whatever model that is being followed now.

Now that the demand data shows zero, it will technically prove that they have kept up their word. Please note that PWMB anyway will not be counted towards this demand.

My personal opinion is this month's demand data is very significant from that perspective. It is also why we are seeing this new/ wierd spillover and GC issue pattern this past two months. Please feel to tear this apart :)

P.S. EB2-I/C total demand of 75 before 01/01/2008 is very insignificant and can be approximated to zero
11-09-2011, 12:59 PM
shaumack

I just want to add that since Demand Data is from November 7th, CO has no interest in gauging demand for applications filed and firm date of 01 March 2008 will be seen in the Visa Bulletin. He will stick to his words, I believe.
11-09-2011, 01:14 PM
nishant2200

Hello everyone. I went through the posts. Thanks to all my friends who mentioned me.

Yes, the demand data is close to 0 as many of us here were already thinking of. But to actually see it in the document is another thing.

The VB release is inevitable now. Prudence suggests the VB should be released before end of business day today for DOS. Since the DD was released before 6 AM PST, it seems to me that their day began at 8 AM EST not like 9 AM EST. Must be 8 to 5 kind of office hours, that also explains why sometimes VB have been released around 2 PM PST, which is 5 PM EST. Many times VB has been released while I am on lunch here, around 12.30 to 12.50 PST. Not that we can derive any conclusions from this, like the coming soon googly, they can do anything at anytime.

I sincerely hope they don't wait till tomorrow. The DD generation date is 7th of November, he already waited like two days after the data collection and tabulation. It does not take rocket scientist to say that if not today, tomorrow VB release is 100% sure.

As far as what we can analyse from DD, it's pretty much the same. CO does have the leeway I believe to make it to his so called prediction of 1st March 2008 or beyond. It all depends now on few decision makers in the DOS/VO/USCIS, whoever they are. Our fate is in their hands. Hopefully they learnt lesson from July 2007 fiasco where suddenly they had to apply more than 70k extra EB visas in around last quarter and were caught with pants down. We can always speculate what the SOFAD will be like, what porting will be like, but that is all speculation and prediction of future, no one has seen future, so prudence suggests CO should prepare for worst case by looking at last two years trend, and the last years trend at the very least.
11-09-2011, 01:17 PM
nishant2200

http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co....html#comments

Our friend CM boldly predicts now that :
EB2-IC will move to 1 Mar 2008 or more.

in comments area.
11-09-2011, 01:41 PM
red2green

Quote:

Originally Posted by veni001

ChampU,

In current scenario pre-adjudication depends on # of new EB2IC applications received Vs processed Vs visas allocated on a monthly basis.

Remember once regular FY2012 quota for EB2IC is consumed, then EB2IC is at the mercy of SOFAD which will depends on several factors! (Ex: Monthly/Quarterly limits/allocations)

Veni & other Gurus,

I was going through this pdf(THE OPERATION OF THE IMMIGRANT NUMERICAL CONTROL SYSTEM) on USCIS website and can you please help me understand the below statement applies for the current scenario.

The American Competitiveness in the Twenty-First Century Act (AC21) removed the per-country limit in any calendar quarter in which overall applicant demand for Employment-based visa numbers is less than the total of such numbers available.
11-09-2011, 01:47 PM
yesman

Quote:

Originally Posted by red2green

Veni & other Gurus,

I was going through this pdf(THE OPERATION OF THE IMMIGRANT NUMERICAL CONTROL SYSTEM) on USCIS website and can you please help me understand the below statement applies for the current scenario.

The American Competitiveness in the Twenty-First Century Act (AC21) removed the per-country limit in any calendar quarter in which overall applicant demand for Employment-based visa numbers is less than the total of such numbers available.

I think this is a great find. It would explain how the SO has been happening so freely in the last month or so. But if it were true, it would also limit the benefit of such movement to the next 2-3 months before demand starts building up for EB2IC
11-09-2011, 01:51 PM
bieber

red2green

that explains the recent approval surge, thanks
11-09-2011, 02:28 PM
nishant2200

Quote:

Originally Posted by red2green

Veni & other Gurus,

I was going through this pdf(THE OPERATION OF THE IMMIGRANT NUMERICAL CONTROL SYSTEM) on USCIS website and can you please help me understand the below statement applies for the current scenario.

The American Competitiveness in the Twenty-First Century Act (AC21) removed the per-country limit in any calendar quarter in which overall applicant demand for Employment-based visa numbers is less than the total of such numbers available.

This line coupled with the no more than 30% of total categories allocation in the first three quarters is what drives QSP.

If you see the DD, it shows EB2 allocation for year is 40,040. 30% of that is: 12,012, similarly for EB1, EB4, EB5 etc. Note EB4 and EB5 only have 9,940 total for year, so 30% of that is less.

Per country limit is 7%, EB2 India is limited to 2,803.

But if in the quarter, the demand from categories which can be spilled over onto EB2 India is deemed less than total of the max allowable in the quarter 30% minus normal India's allocation, for each such category, then we can be assigned those numbers from those categories.
11-09-2011, 02:47 PM
rockybaba

Quote:

Originally Posted by bobhope

Demand data out http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

Curious to know if the sun rise in the west, where you woke up? :D
11-09-2011, 02:48 PM
rockybaba

Quote:

Originally Posted by bobhope

Guess my first post did not add much value :-(

Sure did...brought a big grin to my face. We need some ice-breakers while we await the VB avec a lot of tension!!
11-09-2011, 04:16 PM
winsomelad

EB 2 Predictions

According to analysis from Guru's and Geeks. The prediction for this bulletin is either

Mar -2008 (100%)
June -2008 (80%)
Oct - 2008 (50%)

With in 2 hrs, we will be going to get the Visa Bulletin.
11-09-2011, 08:38 PM
qesehmk

Rules of the Forum

Friends,

I just want all of us to take a pause and seriously consider some of the core principles of our forum:

1. Freedom of speech
2. Attack ideas/opinions BUT never a person
3. Contribute to bring clarity to GC process
4. Empathize with All immigrant groups

So please consider these four principles that have made this forum successful. We have very tolerant. However whenever members have violated especially #1, #2 we haven't been tolerant of that. So please ensure that the spirit of this forum is kept alive.

Contribute to it. Benefit from it. Post freely. Let others post freely.

I thank you all for your interest in this forum and your contributions to this forum.

p.s. - I have closed the thread for now to ensure sufficient people see and read this. Will open the thread tomorrow 9 am EDT.
11-10-2011, 12:21 AM
nishant2200

Guys had to put this, even on closed thread. I think Q will forgive me and not fire me from admin/moderator position.

http://mumbai.usconsulate.gov/cut_off_dates.html

EB2 India 15th March 2008
11-10-2011, 07:54 AM
qesehmk

Congratulations!!! Terrific news for a ton of people.

Lets cross fingers for the actual bullletin to come out. But 99% it will be in line w Mumbai one.

This is a bad time to keep the thread closed :( Its all yours now.

Quote:

Originally Posted by nishant2200

Guys had to put this, even on closed thread. I think Q will forgive me and not fire me from admin/moderator position.

http://mumbai.usconsulate.gov/cut_off_dates.html

EB2 India 15th March 2008
11-10-2011, 08:00 AM
grnwtg

Hopefull this is true as Mumbai is not always correct.
Anyway as I and QBF were always telling, it will be stupidity on part of CO if he does not move dates atleast april'2008. Let us hope for good luck that it will be true.
Nishant and several other people like are waiting for this from last 10 years.
I currently dont have any reaction as i want to see news from uscis bulletin.

Quote:

Originally Posted by nishant2200

Guys had to put this, even on closed thread. I think Q will forgive me and not fire me from admin/moderator position.

http://mumbai.usconsulate.gov/cut_off_dates.html

EB2 India 15th March 2008
11-10-2011, 08:28 AM
imdeng

Congratulations! Nishant, QBF - hope you guys will continue contributing. QBF - you have shared your personal situation before and we are aware of the tough road you have traveled. Its great that the end is in sight for you.

Gurus: Considering that we went above and beyond the expectations, could it be that the incoming demand density post 07/07 is lower than feared? Could it be that the Demand Destruction that has been rumored is true and significant??

Q: Really bad timing to lock down the thread. Some like minded folks ended up expressing their delight in one of the other threads. :-)

PS> I came back to US last night. Immigration at ORD was a breeze. Stupid 40lbs per person baggage limit sucks hard especially when your Mom insists on sending big dabbas of achar!

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