EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

I think with the fast improving I 485 processing times, most porters will also get greened when the flood gates open up. From past data what we can understand is that FBI background check doesnt take that long anymore unless they decide to further screen the individual.

btw folks have to understand that most porters have been in this country for around 10 years or longer, have been thru the worst , compared to folks who graduated in 2008 or later and had an eb2 to start with. So it is actually very fair to allow porting when those individuals qualify for EB2. Everyone wants to beat the queue and get it done with (especially when the get a masters degree), but Im happy with the way it is. 80 to 90 % of EB2 India folks are in software jobs which doesnt require masters degree or a lot of academic skills and hence if very strict qualification rules are set in place those PERMs should have never been approved. (currently everyone is gaming the system and hence no point in crying foul)

Its strange to see EB3 china advance to 01/2009 and EB2 China stuck at 08/2008.

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Originally Posted by irdabb6

Its strange to see EB3 china advance to 01/2009 and EB2 China stuck at 08/2008.

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Is just an application build up as EB2 China had last year when they were May 2010. EB2 China how is 8/2008 it well get his GC next month because they are pre adjucated, EB3 China
8/2008 probably it will take them at least another year until they get the GC.

Some time back on this thread if people remember I had posted the conversation I had with attorney David Ware. It seems what he said then was correct. He had told me movement would be late in the year. The Only part where he seems to have been wrong was he had said movement would be only a few weeks. Looks like in April that was the projection from DOS and now last week it seems with better understanding of visa usage they seem confident of moving to 2008. Hopefully dates move in august though I would bet on sept as that is a safer move for CO to make.

BTW - Spec - you had promised us a prediction after the bulletin. Do you have one for us? Atleast I am waiting to hear your thoughts and analysis

Somehow CO always manages to press the right buttons to annoy the beep out of me even when he has good news. His choice of words!!! I feel so restless and frustrated that there was no movement for eb2i in July bulletin.

I have a late 2008 eb2i pd and I used to have some false confidence that I will get my GC by the end of FY2014. But reality hit me yesterday and I dont think so anymore, I think it will be more like a scary movie titled "FY2014: The Wrath of EB3I Porters." And it kept me up last night. Porting numbers from pre-july 2007 eb3i may be something but its a completely different ball game when porters from post-July 2007 enter the field.

Spec - Loved your post; I haven't heard anyone use "obtuse" in a sentence since Shawshank Redemption.

Spec/Q - for a novice like me, estimating the number of porters or overall new applicants in August/September once the dates advance is just a wild shoot. But you guys can probably guesstimate those numbers from some known data/trend and sheer intuition. So, please indulge me...if the dates for Eb2i are to forward to march 1 2008 this August no more no less, stay there till the end of September and retrogress back to say Jan1 2005 in October....what do you think will be the cumulative number of pending eb2 i485s until the end of feb2008 that we will see in the pending inventory released in jan 2014? I would really appreciate anything you can give me on this.

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Originally Posted by willywonka

Somehow CO always manages to press the right buttons to annoy the beep out of me even when he has good news. His choice of words!!! I feel so restless and frustrated that there was no movement for eb2i in July bulletin.

I have a late 2008 eb2i pd and I used to have some false confidence that I will get my GC by the end of FY2014. But reality hit me yesterday and I dont think so anymore, I think it will be more like a scary movie titled "FY2014: The Wrath of EB3I Porters." And it kept me up last night. Porting numbers from pre-july 2007 eb3i may be something but its a completely different ball game when porters from post-July 2007 enter the field.

Spec - Loved your post; I haven't heard anyone use "obtuse" in a sentence since Shawshank Redemption.

Spec/Q - for a novice like me, estimating the number of porters or overall new applicants in August/September once the dates advance is just a wild shoot. But you guys can probably guesstimate those numbers from some known data/trend and sheer intuition. So, please indulge me...if the dates for Eb2i are to forward to march 1 2008 this August no more no less, stay there till the end of September and retrogress back to say Jan1 2005 in October....what do you think will be the cumulative number of pending eb2 i485s until the end of feb2008 that we will see in the pending inventory released in jan 2014? I would really appreciate anything you can give me on this.

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I am neither spec/Q but have been in this journey for a while and followed the movements etc.,
I have a piece of advice for whatever its worth.

I have ruined my life more or less depending on possible movements and making almost every plan in life based on that and it is in fact intricately involved with movements and GC.

my sister rarely worries as she isn't even considering ever getting GC thorugh EB3I as she planned assuming she would never get GC ( even though at some point when her kids become 21 she will ).

Only after september and also especially after 1st Q of 2014 will anyone have even a clue of where things are especially with CIR in horizon for next fiscal yr onwards.

Historically EB2I has received every year several thousands and EB2WW demand will go down next yr but may be most of the new porters will just apply and fill DD so these two will balance out., now you canmake your own estimations and of course you might hear from the greatest expert of our time spec.

I just hope no one would end up in the rather pathetic situation like mine., stay on the forum and lets help each other out but only piece of advice is the unpredictability factor is very very high.

There is an interesting pattern on EB2 ROW approvals this year which may explain why there was no advancement in EB2 I/C dates. This is from Trackitt EB2 ROW approvals primary only.
Oct 2012 to May 2013 - 754
Oct 2011 to May 2012 - 588
This represents 28% extra consumption.
Now we do know that last year due to high volume approvals for EB2 I/C in feb / mar 2012 these were far more than the numbers could support so ROW cases approval did move to the next year.
So we should filter out Oct and Nov 2012 and then compare over the corresponding periods.
Dec 2012 to May 2013 - 527
Dec 2011 to May 2013 - 489
If we compare these time durations then the numbers are comparable.
EB2 Mexico and Philippines normally do not consume much in EB2, EB2 I/C would take their share. Easily we can see that ROW would take 8- 10K extra visa this year when compared to last year.
With this most likely Eb2 Row would not give any SOFAD, however the numbers do indicate that it would not take any SOFAD away either that would come from EB5 / EB1 including 12K out of 18K extra FB spillover. So even if EB1 does not give anything there is still 12K to apply. But seems like extreme caution is being exercised to use that. Overall EB2 would be SOFAD neutral this year. Kudos to Spec for saying this very early in the year.

Do we think the CO will be cautious in August also and move dates by just few months and then go straight into 2008 in September?

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Originally Posted by vizcard

This is a move to limit porters consuming visas which personally I'm all for. The fundamentals are still the same. The COD date range for me is still Apr to Jun 2008. Of course it could now well be June - Sep 2008 as porting impact will be reduced slightly.

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Viz,

IMHO - any benefits to limit porters filing new I-485 and getting approved in FY'13 is nullified with the more and more porters (who have an existing I-485) getting pre-adjudicated or their EB2 I-140s getting approved during this extra one or two month period from now until Aug/Sep.

I would even say new porters (before 2007 without an I-485) filing new I-485 will be less than the new porters (before 2007 with an I-485) who are documentarly getting qualified day by day.

As Spec clearly explained in one of his posts, CO is not sure about how many more visas he may need in the other categories in the next few months (so again there is no strategy from CO, just the lack of data).

Also it looks like he doesn't want to put an "U" against any other category other than EB2I which he cannot becos it should be "U" by now if there are no "otherwise unused visas".

Even with additional 18k FB SO visas, EB2I had such a rough year, think about FY'14 if there are no FB SO and more and more porters from summer'07 and beyond. REALLY SCARY!

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Originally Posted by geeaarpee

Viz,

IMHO - any benefits to limit porters filing new I-485 and getting approved in FY'13 is nullified with the more and more porters (who have an existing I-485) getting pre-adjudicated or their EB2 I-140s getting approved during this extra one or two month period from now until Aug/Sep.

I would even say new porters (before 2007 without an I-485) filing new I-485 will be less than the new porters (before 2007 with an I-485) who are documentarly getting qualified day by day.

As Spec clearly explained in one of his posts, CO is not sure about how many more visas he may need in the other categories in the next few months (so again there is no strategy from CO, just the lack of data).

Also it looks like he doesn't want to put an "U" against any other category other than EB2I which he cannot becos it should be "U" by now if there are no "otherwise unused visas".

Even with additional 18k FB SO visas, EB2I had such a rough year, think about FY'14 if there are no FB SO and more and more porters from summer'07 and beyond. REALLY SCARY!

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It terms of supply, I think FY14 should be similar to FY13 because EB2 WW is going to provide SO which they have done historically (barring this year which was an anomaly)

However the demand might change depending on how far the dates moves.

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Originally Posted by natvyas

It terms of supply, I think FY14 should be similar to FY13 because EB2 WW is going to provide SO which they have done historically (barring this year which was an anomaly)

However the demand might change depending on how far the dates moves.

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Again IMHO - EB2 ROW porting and Cross-Chargeability are growing too.

As immigration attorneys say 20-30% of their GC cases are porting cases of some sort, which is a huge #, gonna reduce SO.

Port to EB1 or try NIW if you can.

Otherwise since you have an EAD (most EB2I), play the EB1-C game by finding a good employer, go to India (or any other country), work there for a year as some kinda manager at their offshore shop, come back and apply as a Multi-National manager.

Hi guys, I needed your opinion on something. I apologize if I am posting in the wrong thread but if someone could give suggestions on my case it will be very helpful.

I am currently EB3-I with a priority date of Feb 2012 my I-140 is approved and like everyone from India chargeability am waiting for that fateful day when my priority date will be current. In the July visa bulletin CO has indicated that the F2A category could become current at some point during the coming months and this is where I might be lucky. So I got married in the US in March of 2009 to someone who is 6 years older than me and the marriage is registered in the state of Iowa. My wife is a legal permanent resident since Dec of 2008. Our marriage was very low key with just my wife’s mother attending the wedding and no one else. We do not have a joint account and since 2009 have been filing our taxes as married filing separately. Our lease agreement has both our names on it and she is on my health insurance plan. My question to the gurus are the following:

1. If I file a new petition in the next few weeks under F2A category (basically file my I-130 and if I am lucky I-485) will my EB3-I petition get affected by any chance?
2. If the F2A dates become current say in the August visa bulletin can I file for I-485 under F2A assuming that I send out my I-130 petition by end of June and is there any chance that it might somehow effect my I-485 on EB3-I in the future?
3. Given my circumstance considering we don’t have a joint account and we file our taxes as married filing separately will that be an issue when I submit my I-130?
4. I was wondering if anybody has any opinion about me self filing I-130 and I-485 instead of hiring a lawyer and can anyone provide a guidance to the document list that I should be sending with my petition?

I would like to thank anyone who can provide some insight with this regards, it will be very helpful.

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Originally Posted by geeaarpee

Viz,

IMHO - any benefits to limit porters filing new I-485 and getting approved in FY'13 is nullified with the more and more porters (who have an existing I-485) getting pre-adjudicated or their EB2 I-140s getting approved during this extra one or two month period from now until Aug/Sep.

I would even say new porters (before 2007 without an I-485) filing new I-485 will be less than the new porters (before 2007 with an I-485) who are documentarly getting qualified day by day.

As Spec clearly explained in one of his posts, CO is not sure about how many more visas he may need in the other categories in the next few months (so again there is no strategy from CO, just the lack of data).

Also it looks like he doesn't want to put an "U" against any other category other than EB2I which he cannot becos it should be "U" by now if there are no "otherwise unused visas".

Even with additional 18k FB SO visas, EB2I had such a rough year, think about FY'14 if there are no FB SO and more and more porters from summer'07 and beyond. REALLY SCARY!

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Porting can come from post July 2007 too when the dates move. Giving new filers 2 months vs 3 months limits the impact new filers given processing times. It will impact FY14 but this is the new normal. The only ways things for EB2I significantly improve is CIR or porting to EB1.

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Originally Posted by vizcard

Porting can come from post July 2007 too when the dates move. Giving new filers 2 months vs 3 months limits the impact new filers given processing times. It will impact FY14 but this is the new normal. The only ways things for EB2I significantly improve is CIR or porting to EB1.

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"F2A: Could become “Current” at some point during the coming months."

Zero to Very little chance of any FB SO next year. EB2I using SO and getting GCs this year can get married before Sep'13 and their spouses can apply for GCs immediately on F2A.

Employment Third:

Worldwide:

No additional movement. This cut-off date has advanced 18 months during the past three months. Such rapid movement can be expected to generate a significant amount of new demand, with the impact not being felt for three to five months. Therefore, the cut-off date will be held until it can be determined what level of demand is to be expected, and whether it is likely to be sustained.

More EADs to EB3 causing easier employment changes next year and more and more EB2 ROW porting.

Porting:

If the update from Fragomen is correct and the dates move to Feb'08 that would mean 10K would be consumed, and per the calculations from Guru's here we were expecting about 15K visa, which means that Porting is 5K.

Year after year we have been paranoid about porting and it always turned out to be in 4-6K range.

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Originally Posted by natvyas

Porting:

If the update from Fragomen is correct and the dates move to Feb'08 that would mean 10K would be consumed, and per the calculations from Guru's here we were expecting about 15K visa, which means that Porting is 5K.

Year after year we have been paranoid about porting and it always turned out to be in 4-6K range.

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I believe current demand data already has porting demand included. As far as I know the only demand that CO does not have demand data for EB3I porting applicants with Priority date After July 2007, who have not filed 485 yet. Having said that this remaining 5K will move dates further(to Mid 2008). If CO thinks he is going to waste VISAs due to processing delays(like RFEs, finger printing etc..), he will move dates further than Mid 2008. This is my opinion feel free to comment.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by natvyas

Porting:

If the update from Fragomen is correct and the dates move to Feb'08 that would mean 10K would be consumed, and per the calculations from Guru's here we were expecting about 15K visa, which means that Porting is 5K.

Year after year we have been paranoid about porting and it always turned out to be in 4-6K range.

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I believe current demand data already has porting demand included. As far as I know the only demand that CO does not have demand data for EB3I porting applicants with Priority date After July 2007, who have not filed 485 yet. Having said that this remaining 5K will move dates further(to Mid 2008). If CO thinks he is going to waste VISAs due to processing delays(like RFEs, finger printing etc..), he will move dates further than Mid 2008. This is my opinion feel free to comment.

Here are my interpretations of VB bulletin:

1- No new EB3 porters post July 2007 will be able to get GC number. EB2I demand data numbers till July 2007 (~4000) and the porters who already have I-1485 from EB3-I can get GC in 2 months period. So August 13 bulletin cutoff date should be July 2007. (around 8-9K total)

2- After above cutoff date, CO do not need to consider EB3I porters in September visa bulletin, as new porters post July 2007 and without I-485 cannot get GC number in just one month. So last cutoff date will depend on total spillovers and CO can definitely use only demand data to set final cutoff date.

With 18K spillover CO may set cutoff date sometime in May 2008.

my 2 cents

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Originally Posted by pdmay2008

I believe current demand data already has porting demand included. As far as I know the only demand that CO does not have demand data for EB3I porting applicants with Priority date After July 2007, who have not filed 485 yet. Having said that this remaining 5K will move dates further(to Mid 2008). If CO thinks he is going to waste VISAs due to processing delays(like RFEs, finger printing etc..), he will move dates further than Mid 2008. This is my opinion feel free to comment.

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With I-485 already pending, conversion of category from EB3 to EB2 is just matter of seconds, but it cannot be done until the priority date in EB2 is current.

Eventhough USCIS has converted the porters to EB2, it is ofcourse not official , so at this point of time they cannot request for a visa number from DoS, considering the above fact, current demand does not include the porters. Opinions may differ :).

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

With I-485 already pending, conversion of category from EB3 to EB2 is just matter of seconds, but it cannot be done until the priority date in EB2 is current.

Eventhough USCIS has converted the porters to EB2, it is ofcourse not official , so at this point of time they cannot request for a visa number from DoS, considering the above fact, current demand does not include the porters. Opinions may differ :).

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So current demand data does not include EB3 Porters? Are we sure about this fact, if that is true with 15000 SO it can move the date to Feb 08. If the SOFAD is more than 15000 it moves further than Feb-08.

I wish CO would have given few more clues in this VB to understand his thought process.

Based on Last week DD even if CO applies 8000 from SO, the dates will move into 2008JAN in JULY2013 VB. He cann't apply less than 9000 from SO for July2013VB. And in AUG2013VB he will definitely apply all the remaining SO and this will ensure PD will move to atleast APR2008. And I believe QESEH theory where in CO cann't retrogress in SEPT2013VB since annual monthly quota of 232 visas will be available. May be in the worst scenario he might retrogress in OCT2013VB. Otherwise as Qeseh said in his earlier post it will be in DEC2013 we can see dates getting retrogressed.

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

With I-485 already pending, conversion of category from EB3 to EB2 is just matter of seconds, but it cannot be done until the priority date in EB2 is current.

Eventhough USCIS has converted the porters to EB2, it is ofcourse not official , so at this point of time they cannot request for a visa number from DoS, considering the above fact, current demand does not include the porters. Opinions may differ :).

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But the porters are offcially considered as EB2 from 1st August 2013 and right away eligible for visa number allocation!

Porters do have a share in the spillover allocation.

As such it looks complicated , but my guess is there should be some understanding between the agencies in this matter.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

But the porters are offcially considered as EB2 from 1st August 2013 and right away eligible for visa number allocation!

Porters do have a share in the spillover allocation.

As such it looks complicated , but my guess is there should be some understanding between the agencies in this matter.

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Porters who already previous applied for 485 and finished fingerprinting etc. will get GC in few days to couple of weeks.

Porters who never have applied for 485 before will not get GC this fiscal year.

For example anyone who had PD of oct 2007 EB3 would never had a chance to apply for 485 .

Based on the visa bulletin language, it doesn't look like the expected porting demand is realized in the demand data and date movement will reflect that only after few months

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

With I-485 already pending, conversion of category from EB3 to EB2 is just matter of seconds, but it cannot be done until the priority date in EB2 is current.

Eventhough USCIS has converted the porters to EB2, it is ofcourse not official , so at this point of time they cannot request for a visa number from DoS, considering the above fact, current demand does not include the porters. Opinions may differ :).

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I agree completely the DD doesn't reflect additional 4-5K porters who will get GC immediately once dates are moved but there will be some porters who never applied for 485 before in any category will not get GC right away.

I think dates might not move too far from feb 2013, even now ( after fragomen news ) I am not 100% sure that Nov 2007 will be covered this fiscal year. But I have pinned all my hopes on it as it will be devastating blow if they don't even move that far.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

With I-485 already pending, conversion of category from EB3 to EB2 is just matter of seconds, but it cannot be done until the priority date in EB2 is current.

Eventhough USCIS has converted the porters to EB2, it is ofcourse not official , so at this point of time they cannot request for a visa number from DoS, considering the above fact, current demand does not include the porters. Opinions may differ :).

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I agree completely the DD doesn't reflect additional 4-5K porters who will get GC immediately once dates are moved but there will be some porters who never applied for 485 before in any category will not get GC right away.

I think dates might not move too far from feb 2013, even now ( after fragomen news ) I am not 100% sure that Nov 2007 will be covered this fiscal year. But I have pinned all my hopes on it as it will be devastating blow if they don't even move that far.

Hi Guys,

Sorry for reposting my question. I really do value your opinion here could someone who has had experience with this provide an insight to me. Please move this to an appropriate thread as I didn't find a thread pertaining to the following questions. Reposting it again I apologize for any inconvinience.

Hi guys, I needed your opinion on something. I apologize if I am posting in the wrong thread but if someone could give suggestions on my case it will be very helpful.

I am currently EB3-I with a priority date of Feb 2012 my I-140 is approved and like everyone from India chargeability am waiting for that fateful day when my priority date will be current. In the July visa bulletin CO has indicated that the F2A category could become current at some point during the coming months and this is where I might be lucky. So I got married in the US in March of 2009 to someone who is 6 years older than me and the marriage is registered in the state of Iowa. My wife is a legal permanent resident since Dec of 2008. Our marriage was very low key with just my wife’s mother attending the wedding and no one else. We do not have a joint account and since 2009 have been filing our taxes as married filing separately. Our lease agreement has both our names on it and she is on my health insurance plan. My question to the gurus are the following:

1. If I file a new petition in the next few weeks under F2A category (basically file my I-130 and if I am lucky I-485) will my EB3-I petition get affected by any chance?
2. If the F2A dates become current say in the August visa bulletin can I file for I-485 under F2A assuming that I send out my I-130 petition by end of June and is there any chance that it might somehow effect my I-485 on EB3-I in the future?
3. Given my circumstance considering we don’t have a joint account and we file our taxes as married filing separately will that be an issue when I submit my I-130?
4. I was wondering if anybody has any opinion about me self filing I-130 and I-485 instead of hiring a lawyer and can anyone provide a guidance to the document list that I should be sending with my petition?

I would like to thank anyone who can provide some insight with this regards, it will be very helpful.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by indiani

India: At this time it appears that the availability of “otherwise unused” Employment Second preference numbers will allow for movement of this cut-off date in August and/or September. It is expected that such movement will generate heavy new applicant demand, primarily by those who are upgrading their status from the Employment Third preference category. A sustained level of heavy demand could impact the cut-off date at some point during fiscal year 2014.

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So, Does this mean that the dates will move to 2008/2009?

One of the trackitt user reporting that he got RFE for wife vaccinations and his Priority date is July 2008. Does this indicate any thing for the date movement. He applied his I-485 back in Feb-2012.

I guess even if CO applies 9000 from SO,dates will move into DEC2007. And we are expecting SO atleast 13000. He cann't lessen SO in AUG2013VB to less than 9000 because CO will be left with one more month to apply all the remaining SO. I strongly feel all the SO will be applied in AUG2013VB and date will be moved to Mar2008. If not Date will be moved to JAN2008 in AUG2013VB and remaining SO will be applied in SEP2013VB and date will be set to APR2008(Higher end Jun2008). Another factor need to consider is, amount of work for USCIS when SO is applied.
If all SO is applied in AUG2013VB they will have 2 months time to work on applications, otherwise by splitting SO in the last 2 months of this FY, they cann't properly estimate amount of work load on each month. So am pretty confident date will move to atleast 2008JAN in the next bulletin.:D

Quote:

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Originally Posted by indiani

I agree completely the DD doesn't reflect additional 4-5K porters who will get GC immediately once dates are moved but there will be some porters who never applied for 485 before in any category will not get GC right away.

I think dates might not move too far from feb 2013, even now ( after fragomen news ) I am not 100% sure that Nov 2007 will be covered this fiscal year. But I have pinned all my hopes on it as it will be devastating blow if they don't even move that far.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

With I-485 already pending, conversion of category from EB3 to EB2 is just matter of seconds, but it cannot be done until the priority date in EB2 is current.

Eventhough USCIS has converted the porters to EB2, it is ofcourse not official , so at this point of time they cannot request for a visa number from DoS, considering the above fact, current demand does not include the porters. Opinions may differ :).

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I think the current DD has porters data. For example if you consider the DEC'12 DD and Current DD there is a increase of 500 applications for EB2I between the year 1/1/2005 to 1/1/2006. These 500 newly added applications are from the porters for last six months.
Like wise during other years we see there is a decrease in EB3I and an increase in EB2I.
Here is the yearly breakup of application reductions in EB3I so far in this fiscal year:
2002 | -2475
2003 | -1300
2004 | -1175
2005 | -550
2006 | -625
2007 | -250
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Total:| -6375
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Here is the yearly breakup of EB2I applications as of today:
2004 | 475
2005 | 800
2006 | 1200
2007 | 5575
2008 | 16150
2009 | 13850
2010 | 5050
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Total:| 43100
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if you compare the second table data against a Oct'12 inventory or Dec'12 DD you will recognize how are the Applications added to various years.

Also, the current USCIS systems are intelligent enough to detect if an applicant filed multiple I-140s to find the oldest PD from oldest I-140 for that applicant.
One of my friend filed a new I-140 with new employer and gave the Old PD and system has identified that person has got more than 2 I-140s and he even don't know some of them as the previous employers didn't gave him the info of those petitions and he was lucky to get an oldest PD from those unknown I-140s filed by previous employers to him.

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Originally Posted by Sirisha

So, Does this mean that the dates will move to 2008/2009?

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dates will definitely move in to early 2008 and definitely not move beyond Sept 2008. I'm not predicting a COD of Sept... I personally believe a max cut off of June 2008 but no movement in July VB gives some wiggle room now.

"If the case is not within the established cut-off date the request goes into our “pending” demand file, which also contains the demand which has been received from our overseas posts. That demand is then used as the basis for the establishment of future cut-off dates.

When a USCIS authorization is made from the “pending” demand file an e-mail message is sent to a single address which each CIS Office has provided to the Immigrant Control and Reporting Division. The first page(s) of the message provides a summary listing of the A-numbers which have been authorized, and the following pages contain an individual authorization page for each A-number. That listing would be the same type as received if the case had been authorized when the USCIS Officer had originally submitted the request. Such authorizations are assumed to have been processed to conclusion during the month of authorization. If not, USCIS must notify VO that the case was not processed, the case record would then be deleted, and the case would be resubmitted to VO once the reasons for the deletion have been resolved.

The authorizations from the “pending” demand file are sent to a central address to ensure that they are seen by someone should the officer who originally requested the case not be there (e.g., reassigned, on leave, etc.). If authorization is immediately available at the time of request the response would be send to the requesting officer, not the central address."


Guys,

The backlog reduction using unused numbers is as systematic as described above. Each Alien number is allotted with a visa number as per the pending list and no lottery system !

All the best!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by YTeleven

I think the current DD has porters data. For example if you consider the DEC'12 DD and Current DD there is a increase of 500 applications for EB2I between the year 1/1/2005 to 1/1/2006. These 500 newly added applications are from the porters for last six months.
Like wise during other years we see there is a decrease in EB3I and an increase in EB2I.
Here is the yearly breakup of application reductions in EB3I so far in this fiscal year:
2002 | -2475
2003 | -1300
2004 | -1175
2005 | -550
2006 | -625
2007 | -250
---------------
Total:| -6375
---------------

Here is the yearly breakup of EB2I applications as of today:
2004 | 475
2005 | 800
2006 | 1200
2007 | 5575
2008 | 16150
2009 | 13850
2010 | 5050
----------------
Total:| 43100
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if you compare the second table data against a Oct'12 inventory or Dec'12 DD you will recognize how are the Applications added to various years.

Also, the current USCIS systems are intelligent enough to detect if an applicant filed multiple I-140s to find the oldest PD from oldest I-140 for that applicant.
One of my friend filed a new I-140 with new employer and gave the Old PD and system has identified that person has got more than 2 I-140s and he even don't know some of them as the previous employers didn't gave him the info of those petitions and he was lucky to get an oldest PD from those unknown I-140s filed by previous employers to him.

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I think what you are describing is true for someone who has existing I-485 in EB-3 category .

there are some porters who just have old I-140 in EB3 with PD ( but not I-485, people who missed the 2007 fiasco) before summer 2007 and almost everyone after summer 2007 ( I mean porters) do not have existing i-485. these kind of applicants won't consume GC this fiscal year.

i think CO might have just 10K or so spillover but not 14-15 like some of us were hopeful of.
Thats why he is planning to move upto Feb 2008.
( he might do in 2 steps now or just one step in august and keep it the same for sept )

Spec - Any updates to your prediction?

cbordu_111,

It seems many of us are unfamiliar with FB details, I have very little information.

Your EB3 I-140 is valid as long as the job is available to you. You can have multiple immigrant visa petitions approved under different category, but only one visa number is allotted per Alien Number.

I read in one attorney's website that, USCIS avoids multiple I-485 filings and asks to withdraw them except one. If it is true then, whenever F2A is current, you may need to file only I-130 , upon approval send a request to consider your pending I-485 case under family based.

Overall, your case needs a knowledgeable attorney.

I have compared DD and also inventories; Porters have been added consistently over the last 9 months.

New porters ( folks who never filed 485 before ) will not consume any GC's ( unless some lucky ones get within 60 days ) so no one has to worry about the unknown number of porters suddenly appearing.( folks who are anticipating their GC in next fiscal year need to worry about them)

The SO will be applied completely to india . China won't get the 7% ( I believe someone said they might, my recollection might be poor about this ). CO's ( courtesy Fragomen) prediction that China dates move only few weeks is the reason.

The total SO available appears to be roughly 10K ( as 10K is needed to clear till Feb 2008.)

Anyone who want to contradict , please explain why ?

I know Fragomen's statement gave us the Feb 2008 movement detail but any chance the dates move a little bit more to end of March 2008

Hi,

My PD is Dec 2007. I could not file my i485 so far. Are there chances that I receive my GC this year or I have to settle with EAD ONLY. In that scenario, when can I expect my GC?

Thanks

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Vkkpnm

Hi,

My PD is Dec 2007. I could not file my i485 so far. Are there chances that I receive my GC this year or I have to settle with EAD ONLY. In that scenario, when can I expect my GC?

Thanks

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You will get EAD for sure, but hard to make predictions on your GC becuase processing 485 takes overt 60 days that I have seen. And no one knows where the dates are going to be after porters start hitting inventory. With CO making so cautious moves, I doubt you have a chance this year (sorry if I put cold water on your hopes).