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I think people started to analyze only in the last couple of days because VB didn't show up as expected. I think before that people took CO's( +Murthy's ) statement for granted. Historically, there would have been huge discussion on the inventory data, we didn't see that either :)
To some extent I guess it is understandable given the hype that CO himself has created and secondly the odd fact that it's been on "Coming Soon" for the past week.Quote:
Originally Posted by RMS_V13
But sometimes I can't follow the new calculations lead nor understand if it makes more than a few basis points impact. All power to the folks going at it, but for me I think that over-analysis fatigue has set in and I just go to Spec's matrix sheet and plug in based on a consensus update every now and then. Spec's sheet is truly awesome and brings great clarity.
Demand data released
here we go... just 300 pending...
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf
Quote:
Originally Posted by shreyasai2004
Dates would surely have to move significantly forward - Nishant get ready to open the bubbly
is that numbers includes PWMB?
I believe the VB will release with significant date movement in 3 hrs.
I think the reason for releasing the VB a little late is clear... CO wants to clear as many pending applications as possible so that demand data looks empty... this will help him to advance dates significantly...
fella's prepare for a big movement :)
The Dec demand data bodes well for upcoming VB. This is perfect stage for CO to move dates significantly in next few VBs. Good luck to everyone waiting to be current
Since the Demand is zero, I wish CO makes the dates current.. but then I know I am day dreaming.
Seems PWMB's and Aug17th-Sep 30th filers did not get counted in this demand? How come???Quote:
Originally Posted by familyguy
So demand data means preadjudicated (ready to approve) in that case only 75 ROW? WTH!!! May be CP applications counted in this?
This CO and USCIS data is clear as Mud!
Those would not be documentarily qualified as yet. no?Quote:
Originally Posted by polapragada
Demand Data is the numbers which are ready, on the mark get set go to pick Visa numbers ( race is from USCIS to Dos), which is Officially called Pre-adjudicated cases.
PWMB's and Aug17th-Sep 30th are getting ready in the Green room for the next race schedule.
On the other note , are we not selfish and mean ?
you are correct Yesman
So you are saying demand data means Preadjudicated (or) applications validated for documents completeness (Say initial Review)? May be!Quote:
Originally Posted by yesman
75 is not ROW, but the cumulative worldwide (India+China+ROW)Quote:
Originally Posted by polapragada
[QUOTE=Kanmani;13151]Demand Data is the numbers which are ready, on the mark get set go to pick Visa numbers ( race is from USCIS to Dos), which is Officially called Pre-adjudicated cases.
PWMB's and Aug17th-Sep 30th are getting ready in the Green room for the next race schedule.
On the other note , are we not selfish and mean ?[/QUOTE]
Are you asking me??
PWMB's - When become qualfied for visa will receive visa allocation in that month itself and will be approved immediately, sowill never make it to the demand data.Quote:
Originally Posted by polapragada
Aug17th-Sep 30th filers - They are still not qualified for visas, so will not be counted.
NO! it is ROW see the 3rd columnQuote:
Originally Posted by yesman
I believe this demand data generated as of 1st November. As we already know all cases as of 15th July are cleared, and no surprise demand data shows clean.
Quote:
Originally Posted by polapragada
Yay, I graduated my freshman year today :)
Demand of only 50 numbers before Jan08 for EB2I
To me it seems like they have not taken into account the filings from the previous 2 months... ie Oct and Nov Filings....
on the other note another 100 people have got a opportunity to file for I 485 because filings before Jan 11 is 150
Does any one know who gets that opportunity to file for 485 before becoming current?
Quote:
Originally Posted by shaumack
In this way of counting does they ever know what they are doing...? No wonder why CO is always so confused
Anyway thanks for explaining to me
Ah, didn't realize you were talking about the 3rd column. But I'm not too surprised at that either. This is the first time I'm looking @ demand data., pardon my ignorance here. My guess would be that the approval cycle for ROW is so quick that there are only 75 people at any given point in time that are perceived as demand. Several thousands of applicants that applied between Jan 08 and Jan 11 (under ROW) have already been approved.Quote:
Originally Posted by polapragada
The demand data published is certainly excellent news. What it means is that all preadjudicated cases are completely taken care of. The PWMB cases as Shaumack has remarked may in a fair number of cases may never actually make it to the demand data, they will get approved as soon as they are adjudicated. we might start to see PWMB case approvals for the batch Apr 15th - Jul 15th by the end of this month and definitely by early next month. I sincerely hope that the news of 01-MAR-2008 turns out to be true.
I think per month allocation of visa number to EB2 category is more than 300. So now demand is less than supply. I am missing something????
I think those are consular processing applications.Quote:
Originally Posted by girishgkulkarni
I think CO is going to stick to his promise of mar,08Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
So if the approvals for the newly filed cases gets stopped for a while until yearly SO...this demand data would start showing up the numbers again correct?
If demand is less than supply, should they not make it current ? Looks like it is ridiculously under subscribed. I think bulls need to take over from here.
Quote:
Originally Posted by username
I believe that quarterly spillover is already happening so some cases may never show up. The newly filed cases are most likely not ready yet for approvals but they may get approved as soon as they are ready. So as long as the demand data remains low its a good sign.Quote:
Originally Posted by polapragada
Theoretically correct, since we are in Q1 only USCUS doesn't have to worry about visa wastage and con monitor demand by SFM EB2IC dates.Quote:
Originally Posted by asankaran
Agree, Demand Data publshed for last three months hinting that.Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
They are not going to have much work if they don't dates farther and eventually by May/June everyone would be putting extreme pressure burning out USCIS. So typical hurry and wait approach!!
Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Based on the demand data My prediction is it will go substantially beyond Mar 1 08
Most likely the VB will settle down at June 1 2008. We just need to wait for official VB to come
CO is conservative when there is a enough pipeline. He became aggressive when pipeline was drying in 2007 but that was once in a life time event and USCIS learned lesson.
Since then they do talk and now CO will be little aggressive when its running out of pre adjudicated cases, will do QSP as long as pipeline is not that big , if he build 2 years worth of pipeline then he may not do QSP for first year but will do for second.
QSP is not required as per INA so it up to CO.
If he builds buffer more than 8k then it will be tough for him to move in beginning of next year.
Guys please tone down the expectations . I think it is definitely great news for folks in 2008 . Let's hope they get in as many people as possible .
Don't think so, the demand EB2IC generate is only a fraction of 485's processed by USCIS.Quote:
Originally Posted by asankaran
Assuming our demand estimates based on PERM/i-140 are not far-off from actual and also based on what CO hinted in Nov'11 VB (forward movement for few more months), USCIS should be able to generate enough EB2IC demand to consume SOFAD.
Gurus,
Can you add definitions to the Acronyms list on Page 1. I still struggle with the difference between Demand data and Inventory data. Please explain that to me.
Demand = 485 documentarily qualified but not adjudicated?
Inventory = 485 applied but not yet processed?
Demand = 485 documentarily qualified/ pre-adjudicatedQuote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
Inventory = i140 approved and 485 applied (in-processing/pre-adjudicated)
Please keep in mind that Demand of 0 on Demand-Data pdf doesn't mean that they don't have any demand. The numbers that show up on "Demand Data" are those that are pre-adjudicated and waiting for a Visa# to become available. If a visa# is available then the application will never show up on Demand-Data.Quote:
Originally Posted by asankaran
Having said that, I do believe that dates will move significantly (Mar 08) on Dec bulletin. But beyond that, I don't think we'll see any similar significant movements (there could be smaller movements) for the rest of current fiscal year.