EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

We saw that in May visa bulletin the EB2-India dates moved forward because of the fact that EB1 consumption is low and there might be 12 K spillover from EB1.

So I wondered why is EB1 consumption low? What has changed? Well it happens that TSC is sitting on a pile of 25K pending I-140s - from USCIS dashboard. Even if 3K of those are EB1s, then that would be about 7.5K visas that are waiting to be consumed.

So I would be cautious about assuming the so called 12K spillover from EB1. We have been burned last couple of years.

Should TSC get its act together, quite a large chunk of those 12K will get consumed.

Just being contrarily and a devil's advocate!

Spec

You are the man.Awesome link . Also to add to what kd2008 has posted below .I glanced at the I-829 apps (final stage of conditions removal for EB5 when the 2 yrs is done and 500K is vested and 10 jobs created ) .The apps filings and approvals are climbing very rapidly.There will be very very minimal spillover from EB5 atleast from this data.EB5 has an almost 99% approval rate and looks atleast half of those filings will be granted this year itself.

Also EB1 spillover might have been overestimated.......as kd said we have been burned a few times.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

For anyone interested, the USCIS Dashboard has been upadated with figures for February 2011.

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/

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Not sure about 829. The pending are climbing fast but they are still only 2000. The monthly receipts are 200 but approval rate is very low. Wonder if you could recheck and if you still believe you are right then please explain.

On another note - I-140 completions show a consistent decreasing trend which is a good sign.
I would be worried about increase in pending 485 by 43K between oct-Feb. But remember this increase includes both family and employment. On the other hand preadj 485 are showing decrease first time this year.

However the data here doesn't tell us whether the 12K in EB1 is real. Wonder if anyone has any ideas to decipher :-)

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Originally Posted by gcseeker

Spec

You are the man.Awesome link . Also to add to what kd2008 has posted below .I glanced at the I-829 apps (final stage of conditions removal for EB5 when the 2 yrs is done and 500K is vested and 10 jobs created ) .The apps filings and approvals are climbing very rapidly.There will be very very minimal spillover from EB5 atleast from this data.EB5 has an almost 99% approval rate and looks atleast half of those filings will be granted this year itself.

Also EB1 spillover might have been overestimated.......as kd said we have been burned a few times.

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I-140 receipts jumped in Feb.

Based on trackitt there haven't been any PERM approvals since March so I-140 numbers will eventually drop significantly for a few months.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Not sure about 829. The pending are climbing fast but they are still only 2000. The monthly receipts are 200 but approval rate is very low. Wonder if you could recheck and if you still believe you are right then please explain.

On another note - I-140 receipts show a consistent decreasing trend which is a good sign.
I would be worried about increase in pending 485 by 43K between oct-Feb. But remember this increase includes both family and employment. On the other hand preadj 485 are showing decrease first time this year.

However the data here doesn't tell us whether the 12K in EB1 is real. Wonder if anyone has any ideas to decipher :-)

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I have been in the Immigration process for the last 5 years and in my opinion, Charlie Oppenhiem does not open his mouth unless he is 1000% confident of what he is saying.

When he metioned 12K spillover from EB1, it can be taken as granted and at the minimum. Further after Kazarian vs USCIS case, all EB1A and EB1B are closely scrutinized.

2. 829 shows already approved GC for the EB-5 holders. It is just removal of the condition.

3. I am seeing change of attitude in recent H1-Bs from India. Many don't bother about staying back in USA.They want to move back to India happily. Many of my Mumbai and Delhi based friends worked in USA for few years and they went back to India. Almost most of them had PERM approval.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

I know some people believe that ROW may provide much higher fall across this year.

I am a little more guarded on the prospect, although I don't rule it out.

A run rate of 60% of last year's approvals is often quoted, but I don't see any evidence that this remains true.

Analyzing the cumulative ROW primary approvals (adjusted for CofC) for FY2010 and FY2011 shows the following:

----------------All Months ------------
------ Cum FY10 - Cum FY11 - % 11 of 10
October-- 115 ----- 70 ------- 60.87%
November- 149 ----- 98 ------- 65.77%
December- 189 ---- 130 ------- 68.78%
January-- 214 ---- 179 ------- 83.64%
February- 237 ---- 204 ------- 86.08%
March---- 268 ---- 243 ------- 90.67%

Whilst the % was originally 60%, it has risen since.

There is always the problem with knowing exactly what October approvals represent. There always has to be a suspicion that some of them represent cases where the visa was actually allocated from the previous year's quota.

The numbers for October in FY2010 and FY2011 were very different. Excluding October from the statistics gives the following figures:

------------Excluding October ---------
------ Cum FY10 - Cum FY11 - % 11 of 10
November-- 34 ----- 28 ------- 82.35%
December-- 74 ----- 60 ------- 81.08%
January--- 99 ---- 109 ------ 110.10%
February- 122 ---- 134 ------ 109.84%
March --- 153 ---- 173 ------ 113.07%

The apparent run rate is higher for the period Nov - Mar. It may mean nothing, but I do think it is interesting, so I have made the information available.

There are still virtually 6 months left and much may change either way. The period June-Aug saw higher ROW approvals in FY2010. That may not be the case this year and approval % would drop accordingly. From memory, the pipeline for further approvals in Trackitt is not huge at this point.

As ever, Mexico and Philippines approval progress is virtually impossible to predict.

Again, I am not saying that ROW fall across will not increase, only that it is perhaps too early to bank it. Personally, at this point, I still think it will be a modest increase of 1-2k.

A linear projection suggests 22k approvals for the year, which would be 2k less than last year.

For clarity and so people don't have to go hunting for the figures, EB2-ROW (excluding M & P) contributed 6.6k to the 9.7k total fall across in EB2 for FY2010. That was based on allocation of 31k. The ROW (excl M&P) allocation for FY2011 is 28.8k.

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I did a query on Trackitt using the following parameters
Country of Chargeability - ROW
Status - Approved
485 Approval date -(Oct - Mar) Repective years.

The 60% trend is definitely broken we are now at 85%.

EB2 ROW 6 Monthly Calculations (Oct - Mar)
Year 2010- 423
Year 2011 -362

Last Year EB2 ROW gave 11K as SOFAD.
consumption last year = 43K-11K-6K = 26K.

This year the consumption is 85% of last year ~ 22K.
However we must note that we are back to normal cap so ROW allocation
would be 40-6 ~ 34K.

So Nett ROW SOFAD would be 34-22 = 12K pretty similar to last year. However as Spec points out the trend of EB2 ROW rate increasing seems to be very real.

Thanks to everyone for their contributions - you guys are great! I ooked through the 2008, 2009 and 2010 PERM data and EB india filings dropped a lot in 08, dropped further in 09 and recovered well in 10. Of course these statistics have already been discussed extensively in this thread. But I also noticed that China EB applications are down big, including in 2010. So once we clear 07 dates, I genuinely think dates will move fast (ish) because China will not consume much EB visas. Even if porting is in excess of the 6k which is already in most of your models (Q, Veni etc), I think the extra 3-4k (in pessimistic scenario), can be met by the lack of China demand hence keeping overall potential spillover to India at levels predicted by the 'bullish' models. It is not that everyone in EB3 can port too. It is either Master or BS 4 + 4 years work ex - a lot of people came with a BSc Comp Science which is a 3 year degree and although they have tons of works ex, they are unlikely to be able to port to EB2. Just my thoughts...

gcwait2007:
EB1A and EB1B numbers are always very low. I believe it is in the range of 2-3K per annum. Plus since 2008 many universities as well as corporate research facilities are not hiring due to university level budget deficit and corporate profit situation within the US. That much I know being connected to an University. I think it is EB1C that consumes a huge proportion of EB1 visas. May seem to be assuming that EB1C is under a crackdown. This part, I do not know.

vishnu:
Falling China numbers is a good point and many estimates seem to be not taking that into account.

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Originally Posted by gcwait2007

2. 829 shows already approved GC for the EB-5 holders. It is just removal of the condition. THANKS. SO WHERE TO LOOK FOR APPROVAL? DO THESE GUYS FILE 485?

3. I am seeing change of attitude in recent H1-Bs from India. Many don't bother about staying back in USA.They want to move back to India happily. SO TRUE.

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Originally Posted by vishnu

It is not that everyone in EB3 can port too.

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Exactly. Then add the fact that porting involves essentially a duplicate and more complicated GC application. Now why would any US employer would want to do that - especially in this recession when attrition is extremely low.

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Originally Posted by gcwait2007

When he metioned 12K spillover from EB1, it can be taken as granted and at the minimum. Further after Kazarian vs USCIS case, all EB1A and EB1B are closely scrutinized.

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gcwait2007 I fully agree with you that we should take the 12K as the minimum from EB1 in the absence of any other good way to calculate EB1.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

SO WHERE TO LOOK FOR APPROVAL? DO THESE GUYS FILE 485?

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Yes Q.
Step 1of3 is I526.
Step 2of3 is I485 or CP.
Step 3of3 is I829.

Source : USCIS EB5 Filing Procedure

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Originally Posted by gcwait2007

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2. 829 shows already approved GC for the EB-5 holders. It is just removal of the condition.

............

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That's right, if some one files 829 now means he got his GC at least 20 months back. Most of 2k 829 pending now got GC's in FY 2009, there are 3,222 EB5 approvals in FY 2009.
FY 2010 got only 1,139 EB5 approvals.

Going back to what I mentioned earlier, China EB2 + 3 in 2010 as per PERM data (inlcuded certified and certified-expired) was only 3314 ! So EB2 is probably 50% (1657). Remember also that 2010 is a recovery year, so it's NOT like the 08 situation. So all fall-downs and fall-across go straight to EB2 India (once of course we cross 2007). This is great for EB2 I and even if you aren't that optimistic, at the very least you've got to assume that the reduction in China should somewhat offset the 'additional porting' that some as assuming, to leave India porting deduction no greater than 6000. Am I missing something?

Q

Looks like Ravi and Gcwait chipped in with the answer to your question. I had the same idea that 829 is essentially the last stage,conditional gc is granted after 485 ... and if the graphs reflects an huge pending number and EB5 has an almost 99% approval ,would it not mean those visas will be granted this year especially when the turnaround time in EB5 is minimal...at any rate spillover from EB5 should be at minimal in the model.

I know conditional GC is granted but is that reflected in the Visa numbers ..have no idea...was under the assumption only after the conditons are removed it will be counted as normal gc.....might be wrong.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by ravi.shah

Yes Q.
Step 1of3 is I526.
Step 2of3 is I485 or CP.
Step 3of3 is I829.

Source : USCIS EB5 Filing Procedure

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Thanks. Looks like 829 has no bearing on SOFAD. Because once 485 is adjudicated the number is used.

Now if 829 is not fulfilled then GC is possibly revoked but doesn't mean that the numbers return to the pool at all.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by gcseeker

Q

Looks like Ravi and Gcwait chipped in with the answer to your question. I had the same idea that 829 is essentially the last stage,conditional gc is granted after 485 ... and if the graphs reflects an huge pending number and EB5 has an almost 99% approval ,would it not mean those visas will be granted this year especially when the turnaround time in EB5 is minimal...at any rate spillover from EB5 should be at minimal in the model.

I know conditional GC is granted but is that reflected in the Visa numbers ..have no idea...was under the assumption only after the conditons are removed it will be counted as normal gc.....might be wrong.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by gcseeker

Q

Looks like Ravi and Gcwait chipped in with the answer to your question. I had the same idea that 829 is essentially the last stage,conditional gc is granted after 485 ... and if the graphs reflects an huge pending number and EB5 has an almost 99% approval ,would it not mean those visas will be granted this year especially when the turnaround time in EB5 is minimal...at any rate spillover from EB5 should be at minimal in the model.

I know conditional GC is granted but is that reflected in the Visa numbers ..have no idea...was under the assumption only after the conditons are removed it will be counted as normal gc.....might be wrong.

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gcseeker,

First, I must congratulate you on your lateral thinking to try to achieve some understanding of EB5.

I think veni is correct about when the GC is issued. From the link provided by ravi.shah:

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Acquiring lawful permanent residence (“Green Card”) through the EB-5 category is a three step self-petitioning process.

First the successful applicant must obtain approval of his or her Form I-526 Petition for an Alien Entrepreneur.

Second, he or she must either file an I-485 application to adjust status to lawful permanent resident, or apply for an immigrant visa at a U.S. consulate or embassy outside of the United States.

The EB-5 applicant (and he or her derivative family members) are granted conditional permanent residence for a two year period upon the approval of the I-485 application or upon entry into the United States with an EB-5 immigrant visa.

Third, a a Form I-829 Petition by an Entrepreneur to Remove Conditions must be filed 90 days prior to the two year anniversary of the granting of the EB-5 applicant’s conditional Green Card. If this petition is approved by CIS then the EB-5 applicant will be issued a new Green Card without any further conditions attached to it, and will be allowed to permanently live and work in the United States.

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EB5 is analogous to a Marriage based GC, which is initially issued for 2 years.

In that case, an I-130 is approved, followed by an I-485 or Consular Processing. If approved, a conditional GC is issued for 2 years. Finally an I-751 is submitted to remove those conditions.

For EB5, just substitute the I-130 and I-751 with I-526 and I-829.

If large numbers of previous EB5 applicants are asking for removal of conditions, it tends to say that the success rate has been quite high, even in difficult times. That will encourage others as the economic outlook improves. I'm not sure how long that will take to manifest itself - probably not this FY.

I do remember that USCIS have been criticised by both the Ombudsman and lawyers for the length of time it takes to complete EB5 processing, so I don't believe it is a particularly quick process.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

On another note - I-140 receipts show a consistent decreasing trend which is a good sign.

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Q,

I suppose it depends how you look at the data. I don't really see that.

Yes, the figure is less than the beginning of the FY.

Year on Year, the figures remain higher than the corresponding period in FY2010.

Mth --- FY11 --- FY10

Oct -- 7,442 -- 4,566
Nov -- 7,839 -- 3,901
Dec -- 5,161 -- 4,337
Jan -- 6,056 -- 4,108
Feb -- 6,859 -- 4,969

Tot - 33,357 - 21,881

Spec

My mistake. I meant completions and wrote receipts.

Its the completions that are tracking to about 70K per annum. Of which significant would be EB2/3 IC and EB3ROW which are all retro categories.

So the EB1 EB2ROW will be very less (someone could do the math and figure out). This method will corroborate at least the magnitude of SOFAD.

p.s. original post corrected.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Q,

I suppose it depends how you look at the data. I don't really see that.

Yes, the figure is less than the beginning of the FY.

Year on Year, the figures remain higher than the corresponding period in FY2010.

Mth --- FY11 --- FY10

Oct -- 7,442 -- 4,566
Nov -- 7,839 -- 3,901
Dec -- 5,161 -- 4,337
Jan -- 6,056 -- 4,108
Feb -- 6,859 -- 4,969

Tot - 33,357 - 21,881

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by kd2008

Just look up trackitt data.

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I just did and you are right. Its really weird. I have not been on that site for a long time but I gave a search on All nationalities, all categories, approved perms and uptil end of Feb (i only saw Jan and Feb 2011)just about every working day has some entries and then from Mar 1 till today there are like 3 entries.

I don't even want to dare to guess over here because it could be anything. Obviously they are just sitting on them for some reason in all likelyhood to allow someone up the chain to clear their backlog.

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Originally Posted by Gclongwait

I just did and you are right. Its really weird. I have not been on that site for a long time but I gave a search on All nationalities, all categories, approved perms and uptil end of Feb (i only saw Jan and Feb 2011)just about every working day has some entries and then from Mar 1 till today there are like 3 entries.

I don't even want to dare to guess over here because it could be anything. Obviously they are just sitting on them for some reason in all likelyhood to allow someone up the chain to clear their backlog.

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Yes, it is wierd. Until Feb2011, PERM was being processed in as few as 3 days ! Come March 1st, and they stopped processing them completely ! I am not able to digest the reasoning of 'Govt Shutdown'. It is all planned. I am predicting that by September, the dates will move somewhere in 2008/2009 and then retrogress. This is what the fortune cookie told me: A LONG TIME GOAL WILL SOON BE ACHIEVED :D
Enjoy your life,guys !

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Originally Posted by vishnu

Going back to what I mentioned earlier, China EB2 + 3 in 2010 as per PERM data (inlcuded certified and certified-expired) was only 3314 ! So EB2 is probably 50% (1657). Remember also that 2010 is a recovery year, so it's NOT like the 08 situation. So all fall-downs and fall-across go straight to EB2 India (once of course we cross 2007). This is great for EB2 I and even if you aren't that optimistic, at the very least you've got to assume that the reduction in China should somewhat offset the 'additional porting' that some as assuming, to leave India porting deduction no greater than 6000. Am I missing something?

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vishnu,
Porting is a constant process and will have its peak and low points, assuming that FY 2011 will see its peak my guess would be porting will go back to normal(2-3k) in the coming year or two.

As a side note, most of the new EBI cases are trying their best get in EB2.

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Originally Posted by ravi.shah

This is what the fortune cookie told me: A LONG TIME GOAL WILL SOON BE ACHIEVED :D
Enjoy your life,guys !

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Ravi ... humour never fails to lighten up your mood. Thanks.

On your speculation / hunch about why PERM processing stopped ... I belong to your camp. I think things happen for a reason. And the immigration policy drives USCIS and DOS actions. So yes .... laws give them the framework but policy is at times equally or more important.

veni - i agree that porting likely drops. but do you (and the others) see my angle on the china eb demand drop, which would leave more spillover to eb2 I.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by ravi.shah

Yes, it is wierd. Until Feb2011, PERM was being processed in as few as 3 days ! Come March 1st, and they stopped processing them completely ! I am not able to digest the reasoning of 'Govt Shutdown'. It is all planned. I am predicting that by September, the dates will move somewhere in 2008/2009 and then retrogress. This is what the fortune cookie told me: A LONG TIME GOAL WILL SOON BE ACHIEVED :D
Enjoy your life,guys !

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If they want to restrict new I-485's in EB2 for some reason then thats the only way to do it. On a side note... as long as getting a GC is the only long time goal you have, I think we are good. Please suppress all you other goals for the time being.