The inventory is out, and the numbers are going as per your prediction
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The inventory is out, and the numbers are going as per your prediction
Yes. Look at this chart and the EB3-I inventory on 1stOct2015.Quote:
Originally Posted by asaxena2
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B89...SmM/edit?pli=1
Its precisely following the prediction chart for last 1 year and the question is can it follow for current year too.
I strongly say YES and we will see the wipeout of EB3-I backlogs by 1stOct2016 and EB3-I dates moving beyond Jul2007 for the first time after 9 years of waiting.
All good signs for EB3-I.
Do you have a forecast for EB2-I too?Quote:
Originally Posted by YTeleven
YT
Wow !!! Really impressive. Your chart has been making rounds across many forums.
I am EB3 I with PD in Mar2005. Hope it will be current in May as you have predicted.
Just one point - do you feel there will be quarterly SO. Your are showing a drop in EB3 in Jan 2016 & another big drop in Jul 2016.
For USCIS purposes, Oct XX to Sep XX+1 falls under FY XX+1. So you will be FY14. I don't know whats the relevance of that though.
Quote:
Originally Posted by LeoAugust
So essentially no reduction in EB2I inventory in one whole year. All the visas in this category was taken by porting? Am I missing something here??
Any idea how many visas EB2-I got last year? 7K?Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
Your PD says that your PERM was submitted to DOL in FY2014.Quote:
Originally Posted by LeoAugust
For all other purposes (e.g. Cut Off Dates, Inventory), the more important fact is that your PD comes under CY2013.
The processing time for a PERM, I-140 and I-485 is on average at least a year, even if all goes fairly smoothly, so that shouldn't be too surprising IMO.Quote:
Originally Posted by sstest
Given PERM certifications have only recently reached April 2005 cases, the majority of 2015 cases are likely to be NIW and Schedule A, where no PERM is required.
YT,Quote:
Originally Posted by YTeleven
I too had an estimate of 20k for EB3-I Inventory (and 18.5k for EB2-I), yet I am having difficulty reconciling that figure with wiping out the EB3-I Inventory in FY2016.
I understand that due to removals associated porting, 20k approvals aren't required to bring the Inventory to zero. Let's say it only requires 15k because 5k (as an example only) will be reductions due to porting, denials etc.
If China and Mexico use 3k each, Philippines uses 5-6k and India uses 15k then that totals 26-27k. That only leaves 13-14k available for ROW approvals.
The demand pipeline for ROW appears to be a fair bit higher than that.
What's your breakdown of where the numbers for EB3-I are coming from?
I agree with Spec. Not sure how EB3 inventory would be fully cleared.
One other question I have is EB-SouthKorea usage. As per the report below South Korea (EB1+EB2+Eb3+EB4) usage for 2014 was 11561 though their limit was 9100 (130,000 * .07). How is that possible? EB3-SouthKorea used 6000 visas last year.
http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/...leV-PartII.pdf
Thanks
Thanks for your response.
Hi Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Can you please provide your conservative estimate for EB3 I for FY2016? Is there a chance for it to touch 2006?
Thank you very much
Amul
Quote:
Originally Posted by YTeleven
Hi
India eb 3 will need around 20000 numbers,to clear it ?
Eb 3 row PIPELINE IS AROUND 11000.What is your calculation behind clearing of eb 3 india backlog.?
thanks
Another thing to consider will be EB3P cases which go through CP. They do not show up in the pending I-485 inventory but shows up in the DOS data. EB3P CP cases have been very high and reducing spillover to EB3I. Ironically EB3P has moved ahead to 2011 too so not sure why some say there are EB3P CP cases with old PDs which take the spillover. Why are they not filing AOS when their PDs get current? EB3P has moved to 2011 very recently. Why did they not apply then?Quote:
Originally Posted by asaxena2
EB3P CP cases are the thorn to EB3I movement.
EB3Iwaiting,Quote:
Originally Posted by EB3Iwaiting
Firstly, it's incorrect to say EB3-P are using any spillover - they're not. They are using numbers within the overall 7% limit.
The majority of EB3-P applicants applicants are nurses. Many are RNs, which USCIS generally deems the qualification needed is the foreign equivalent of an Associate degree. This means most cannot use the H1B visa, then AOS, but must elect Consular Processing.
The EB3-P Cut Off Dates advanced rapidly from 15JUN07 in April 2014 to a peak of 01JUN14 in March 2015.
When their PD became current, many found that the original job offer no longer existed. They have been frantically working to find another employer who will process a new I-140. This takes time. Since they come under Schedule A, no PERM is required.
These applicants, having had a previously approved I-140, retain the PD for any new I-140 approved, so there are (and will be) a lot of EB3-P applicants with quite early PDs.
Thanks Spec for explaining the story of EB3P.
The gist of Spec's post is that EB3I will not be significantly impacted by EB3P backlog because although theroretically EB3P may have older dates - various circumstances prevent assiging a visa to EB3P. DoS wouldn't want to waste visas and hence they might very well assign them to EB3I.
Now that's the theory. We will see how it plays out this year when a good amount of visas are going to become available in EB3. Whether EB3P gets a large share or EB3I - we will know for sure as year progresses.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Just so there's no misinterpretation.
I don't believe the rapid forward movement and job offer problems for many applicants will reduce the number of EB3-P approvals. I expect there to be 5-6k EB-P approvals. This group are quite driven and enterprising. Also, the COD reached a fairly recent date where the job offer is likely to still exist.
I think EB3-P will be bounded by reaching the overall 7% limit. At that point, EB3-I will have the earliest COD and receive any SO available.
EB3-P numbers are controlled by the number of EB2-P approvals (there aren't that many in other EB categories and they reach the limit within FB). If EB2-P have high approval numbers,then EB3-P can use less numbers before the overall 7% limit for Philippines is reached (and vice versa).
Thank you Spec for explaining me the EB3P scenario. This is the first time someone explained this to me clearly.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Coming to the quarterly SO issue, shouldn't that be done simply to reduce visa wastage? CO should have a good idea looking at trends of EB3ROW demand and knowing that they will not utilize their full quota can apply a quarterly SO to EB3I. If demand increased over the year, he can always retrogress the dates back. If all SO is applied in Q4, USCIS will not be able to process them in time and will end up wasting visas. Wasn't this the very reason to have a quarterly SO? If that happens, are we expecting around 4k?
Why are we not talking about EB3-SouthKorea. They are also taking 5-6k visas every year. I guess EB3-[Phili+SouthKorea] combined would take close to 14,000 visas in FY16 as South Korea's perm count has doubled in FY15. Would EB3I get any SO after all these.
Thanks
Suva,Quote:
Originally Posted by Suva2001
South Korea has been discussed many times on this forum.
As I have said previously, the damage caused by improved PERM certifications may be limited. Much of the increase seems to be attributable to cases that will be filed under EB3-Other Worker. This has a ceiling within EB3 of 5k of total approvals.
Looking at the PERM data for FY2014 and 2015, it's apparent that a few companies have filed a lot of EB3-EW cases for South Korea in FY2015. 21 companies have 10 or more certifications in FY2015 for South Korea with minimum educational qualifications that suggest EB3-Other Worker. They total 818 cases alone. 8 of those companies did not have a certification in FY2014. They represent 597 of the 818 cases.
Thanks Spec
The Annual report on the Immigrant Visa applications will be released next month. Can that provide a better approximation on the SO that EB3I can expect this year?
http://thinkprogress.org/immigration...reedom-caucus/
Looks like there is no relief even in the distant future.
I assume you are talking about the DOS Visa Statistics.Quote:
Originally Posted by EB3Iwaiting
I'll be ecstatic if they are published as early as next month.
Last year the FY2014 Visa Statistics were published very late and came out on March 24, 2015.
Generally, they are published in January/February e.g. the FY2013 Visa Statistics were published on January 15, 2014 and the FY2012 Visa Statistics were published on February 12, 2013.
More correctly, Tables V and VI have been published on those dates - some of the other tables were published earlier.
When they are published, it may well help, as we will get to see exactly how many visas each Country received in each Category. That's generally helpful for forward forecasting, since it confirms or denies the validity of the assumptions that were made for FY2015.
I'll use the opportunity to once again point out that DHS have still not published the 2014 Yearbook of Immigration Statistics - more than a year after the FY ended.