Good going Veni. Thanks.
Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
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Good going Veni. Thanks.
Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Friends ... header updated. I am reasonably confident that the most likely date will be in Apr 2007 for EB2IC with a 1.5 months margin on either side (So the range would be mar-jun 2007. Pls check the top of the thread.
kd,Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
Thanks for the heads up.
There have only been more completions than receipts in a month once in the last 13 months.
The backlog (All Other Pending) has consequently risen from 11k to nearly 34k.
That is not a particularly enviable record.
Veni,Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
I have the actual I-140 Dashboard data for October and November 2008 which you are estimating.
The full figures are:
--------- All Other ----- Awaiting
---------- Pending -- Cust Action -- Completions -- Receipts
Oct08 ----- 95,749 -------- 3,638 --------- 12,363 ----- 5,633
Nov08 ----- 92,106 -------- 2,927 --------- 10,811 ----- 4,664
although I think you only need the Receipt numbers.
Hope that helps.
Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
So guys.... Is it bad news for expected Sofad ?? Any comments on where we stand with this new data??
soggadu,Quote:
Originally Posted by soggadu
Not for the original prediction, but any additional we are counting since May VB is out.
I am positive still EB1+EB2ROW could yield up to 10.0k and EB5 about 8.0k
Thanks for updating the thread. With closeby PD, I am anxious every minute :rolleyes:Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Earlier I used to feel that the work and stay in US is temp and lived in a way that I was ready to move back to India in short notice. These days I am buying many things and have the sense of settling down in work and place.
with PD Oct 22 07, my hopes of applying for EAD during this FY are going down with every bit of new data that is emerging out..... hey god... thoda lift karadee...mujhe nahi, spillover ko....Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
V,Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
While I concur with your estimate of EB1+EB2ROW would provide around 10K, I would believe that EB5 would provide about 5800 visas. Total spillover would be 16K on the 'realistic side' for the last quarter. Pessimistic 14K, Realistic 16K, Optismistic 18K.
@soggadu i have the same priority date. Hope we can atleast get the EAD. Cannot stand my current job anymore.Quote:
Originally Posted by soggadu
awesome...lets hope for the best... hey keep in touch going forward....Quote:
Originally Posted by ssvp22
my priority date is 3rd week of June. what are the chances of getting atleast EAD. I missed the boat in July by 2 weeks.I hope history doesn't repeat this time.
GCW ..you are not alone. It happens with most of us. I can certainly say for myself.
Hoping to get a GC this year and wife and I are planning that she will go back immediately with Kids for a semester to see how things work out there. If not I guess we will settle here.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gcwait2007
Since trackitt is the best data source we have, here are some interesting insights from trackitt.
Of all 140s filed during Aug10-till date, 75% are EB2 & 25% are EB2-ROW. Only 15% are EB1.
Looking at USCIS dashboard for comparable time period, it tells us that for full year the absolute number will be 70K completions.
Of that 70K 15% EB1 would translated to approx 23.5K EB1 485 approvals for full year. => 16.5K SOFAD from EB1 for full year.
However ROW is not as much rosy. Looked at from I-140 perspective, ROW seems to consume 34K this year as opposed to 27K last year. There are two ways to arrive at 34K. 1) take EB2ROW as a % based on trackitt. That is 25%. Apply that to projected full year I-140 receipts (approx at 70K). Multiple result by 2 to account for dependents. 2) Method 2 - look at trackitt. Last year ROWMP had 360 I-140 applications. This year for 8 months we have 308. Project full year for this year. And then apply to 27.5K (which was full year approvals for ROWMP EB2). Interesting both methods give 34K.
In the projection in header though we have used PERM data which gave us 80% run rate of last year.
So you see? PERM data tells positive picture. I-140 negative. Which one is it going to be? We don't know. This is like classic supply chain issues. While inventory in one place is being cleared.... it builds up in another place thereby reducing throughput. Or the other way round - throughput can increase even when new receipts are low because the inventory is being cleared at some place.
That's the difficulty in prediction... That's why I say there are so many different levers that USCIS can pull to SERVE THEIR POLICY OBJECTIVES.
Our best bet and hope is whats mentioned in the header! Lets cross the fingers!
Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Q, thanks for the insight. Based on the deluge of PERM approvals at the start of fiscal year, I had said that I don't see a spillover from EB2ROW. But the lack of I-140 and I-485 approvals made me think that we may get some but at best not more than last year.
Now your analysis makes me think again that it might be zero. Sorry to be such a pessimist. After being burnt in past couple of years, I am still reluctant to imagine a more positive outcome of predictions.
I am new to this forum, On first page prediction EB3 India still shows under section 'Dates Movement Guesstimate Below' is March 02. As of June VB it is already 22APR02.
So what dates movement we are talking about. I didn't get clear.
Sorry if I am asking stupid question.
sorry I only updated EB2 since this is EB2 thread. I didn't look at EB3.
However March 02 was old estimate. The movement till Apr 02 indicates the significance of porting.Will update later today. Thanks.
And no question is stupid!
Quote:
Originally Posted by mpurna77
March I-140 Completions are similar to previous year. The receipts are increased by 1213, due to PERM clearance.
2010 -> Completions - 7343, Receipts - 7526
2011 -> Completions - 7316, Receipts - 8739
We all from all forums know that EB3-EB2 porting is prime driving force of EB2IC movement. Is there any place to get accurate data how many applications PERM/I-140 filled and how many got approved from Jan 2011.? we are predicting all these movements on assumptions or can we have real data from DHS or USCIS by requesting them. is it possible?
the movement for EB2 I - Apr 07, is this up to Sep 2011 VB or next month only?
mpurna77,
please read through all the pages of this thread. if you want just the data, check the facts & data section
where is FACTS and DATA section I don't see it in forum. can you provide me link.ThanksQuote:
Originally Posted by bieber
mpurna77,Quote:
Originally Posted by mpurna77
Please check the following links...
i-140 Data and Calculations
i-485 Data and Calculations
mpurna77,Quote:
Originally Posted by mpurna77
It is by end of FY, which is Sept 2011
kd2008,Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
I agree, even though they are only averaging about 6.0k i-140 completions per month for the last year and half, I am still still reluctant to bet on EB2ROW spillover.
So far the highest i-140 completions in a month, since data was made available, is 18,881 in Feb 2009, which means they have the capability to process all pending to-date in about two months.
Hello All,
Can anyone shed light on how the movement of dates could be after sept 2011. Assuming our predictions are accurante and we stop at Apr 2007, any idea how long it would take for the dates to reach around Sept - Oct 2007 time frame with the current data.
Sorry if this has already been answered.
It all depends how much we move until Sep 2011. :)Quote:
Originally Posted by krishnav
Gotta wait and watch...
I still don't understand why NVC has sent emails till Oct07 askIng to pay fees for CP... It is usually done in cases where DOS thinks the PD will be current in coming months... Damn... So many ifs and when's attached to all these calculations and numbers... Just wish it was more simple... But one point for all those waiting for getting current after 07 07 ... Don't keep any hopes for this year.... Go on with ur lives.... My 2 cents..prove me wrong CIS/DOS....Quote:
Originally Posted by ravi.shah
I think it will reach Sep - Oct'07 in a year's time, i.e. anywhere around June - July'12.Quote:
Originally Posted by krishnav
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
You lost me at i-140 projections based on USCIS dash board. As per the data Aug-10 to Mar-11 there are 58.6k i-140 receipts or averaging about 7.3 k per month, which translates to 88k demand for FY2011. This is about 14% higher compared to FY2010. FY2010 total i-140 receipts = 77.3k
As far as EB1 demand, i-140 trending shows about 6.9k application from Q1 and Q2 adding Q3 estimate will bring it to 10.4k, apply 20% denial rate and 2.4 dependent factor gives 19.9k demand for the three quarters, now add EB1 pending(7.6k) as of 10-01-2010 this translates to 27.5k known demand until 07-01-2011.
The key for any additional SOFAD is how many EB1&EB2ROW i140's are going to be cleared/pending by 07-01-2011
Veni
I looked at the completion rate not receipt. So even if the completions proceed as they are now, 70K will be the full year completions.
There is a risk that the completions could accelerate.
Regarding your date Jul-1-2011 as kind of application deadline for obtaining visa this year, since all of this is concurrent, theoretically even 1st sep would be an ok date.
However 485 is a bit tricky thing. It does need some cycle time to ensure all the checks. So I think any receipts post 1st Jul probably wont' matter for this year.
Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Most likely true because based on latest TSC processing dates, I-485 processing timeframe is now "September 6, 2010". Of course, TSC does not have a nice breakup of EB-1, EB-2, etc,. like NSC for instance.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Thanks for clarification.
Does this point us to more SOFAD than expected?Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Instead of focussing on "how much" SOFAD, we should be contended with the fact that Dates will not progress beyond March/April 2007. Math around SOFAD is mind-boggling at best, exacerbated by lack of bare-minimum inputs.Quote:
Originally Posted by soggadu
Definitely NOT.
To be a bit technical - the lagging indicators are positive (i.e. trackitt approvals / dashboard approvals). But the leading indicators (I-140 / 485 receipts) are -ve. PERM data which is another leading indicator is +ve.
So all in all - it could go eitherway. So what we present on this forum is really an "EDUCATED GUESS". At the end of teh day it is still a "Guess". But an "Educated" one though!
Quote:
Originally Posted by soggadu
I support qesehmk. By not calculating and hence not knowing the numbers, we are open to situations where visa numbers can get wasted 'cause the dates were never moved as required, as it has happened in the past. Let's say if our calculations were to show 10k visa number wastage, we can get media involved and make sure it does not happen. Otherwise we are open to exploitation where American companies will keep fleecing us for as long as possible.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Friends many of you have asked on when your specific dates will be current. For now on the strength of numbers following is the current situation.
- The current cap consumed is 6K of regular I/C cap and around 9K of the 12K visas that came up at the time of the May bulletin this would make it ~ 15K consumption. We should be cognizant to the fact that last year SOFAD which includes I/C regular cap was 26K and this year the cap itself is les due to lack of family spillover by 10K.
- Now the next critical fact is how of much of SOFAD is left and how much is required to effectively cross the 01-Aug-2007 line, something like having the next batch of intake can only happen if there is a chance of coming really close to this point. For this calculation we should exclude the PWMB's for now, I believe last VB saw an additional 6.5 cases being current so the revised demand data should show ~ 24K. Following is what we can expect.
a) 8K from EB5 appears to be almost certain.
b) 7-8K from EB2 ROW appears to be quite likely this is based on the rate of approvals on Trackitt, however a note of caution that the USCIS dashboard was recently updated an it shows a surge of applications in March it was a similar trend last year but it does not augur well because it could mean that there will be more EB2 ROW applications and even if they file in regular processing they have a decent chance of approval in September. EB2 ROW spillover calculations is one area where everyone has different opinions.
c) EB1 – I believe that we did not receive 3K out of the 12K figure from May and we can possibly get another 5K.
All in all if all of a), b) & c) add up then totaling upto 24K is possible and we may come very close to the 01-Aug-2007 line. But realistically we will likely end up 5-6K short of this mark and the dates might be somewhere between late April and early May lets put it as 01-May-2011.
If the 01-Aug 2007 mark has to be reached he is how he VB’s must progress we should see ~ 8K movement every time if any of the bulletins does not show sufficient progress we will miss the mark
Jul - 15th Jan 2007
Aug - 15th Apr 2007
Sep - 1st Aug 2007
Now coming to next year. I think a very important thing will be how much SOFAD happens this year. In the most optimistic case it will be 40K. So the next intake should be able to safely cover 40K. However we should consider the fact if we reach say 01-May 2007 then ~10K of preadjudicated cases + pwmb’s will be left and we can expect another 6K of porting. So what is left really is an intake of 24K. This is I believe will be very easily satisfied by moving the dates barely into 2008, the chances for anyone in Q2 2008 for next year are a little optimistic as of now it might take Sep 2012 to clear ot the heavy demand from year 2007. I would say that the fresh intake would peg the date somewhere between 01-Jan-2008 to 28th Feb 2008 as all they need is a maximum of 24K cases beyond 01-Aug-2007 to cover a contingency of 40K. However if there is a grand gate opening that is completely hypothetical and their discretion it could be a great news to everyone waiting.
Teddy so when do you think they will move dates between 01-Jan-2008 to 28th Feb 2008? Is it Oct'11 to Dec'11 or is it the 2012 spillover season of July-Sep'12?
This pertains to the 2012 season, I believe that 01-Jan-2008 to 28th Feb 2008 will be the maximum we can hope for because for a 40K buffer thy just require a 24K intake. In the 2011 season we will likely settle around 01-May-2007.Quote:
Originally Posted by whereismygclost