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Guys,
A quick question...
What happens when there is a slight EB2-ROW backlog for certain countries, which exceeds their per country quota?
Does this countries remain current or will retrogress. Is it possible for them to get spill over before EB2 I & C?
nayekal
Since 7% is calculated across FB and EB the only countries where this happens ever are India and China (as far as EB2 goes). For all other countries they will continue to get visas until they hit 7% across FB and EB.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nayekal
I thought spillover happens only in last Q. spillover before last quarter might be indication of something big in store.
This is an interesting thing.... The spillover was never issued before July but this time they did it before.... So what is the reason for this and what can we expect going forward??Quote:
Originally Posted by manipur
Spec,Q,V,T,gcwait and others please let me know your take on this and why it happened....
Soggadu - I know the V you referred to was Veni but let me give my 2 cents too :)
EB1 usage is extremely low (CO words) and hence they have tons of spare visas left already. It is so low that even if demand picks up in Q4, they would have plenty of spare visas left. These guys are super conservative, so if they had 12k to spill over as of April, I'm guessing they likely would have at least 18k for the FY. They obviously want to maintain a cushion in case demand picks up and hence the 12k. Hence the movement. The next few months should see the remaining EB1 spill down + EB5 + EB2 ROW.
Hey Vishnu.... I understand that EB1 usage is low then why is it projected to have only 18K if the usage is extremely low? Also in previous Years even though we had low usage from others like family based, the sofas was applied only during last quarter... So we expect a huge rally going forward ??
soggadu,Quote:
Originally Posted by soggadu
The projection is based on trackitt , i140 receipts and EB1 inventory as of 10-01-2010.
soggadu,Quote:
Originally Posted by soggadu
The reason for spillover early is due to very low EB1 demand. Please note that this is the first time since FY 2007 that EB1 demand is less than its regular quota!
vishnu,Quote:
Originally Posted by vishnu
Based on our estimates EB1 is at about 60% of its regular annual quota, and i agree there is a strong possibility for EB1 to yield another 6k by end of FY.
Vishnu is pointed out the 12k availability. Based on EB1 usage, CO seemed to be certain that 12k will be definitely available. Of course they will not be careless and not keep a buffer. But with respect to - 'since 12k is going to be available and let us start using it in May itself scenario', I am not sure what CO's thinking is. It could be let us do something extraordinary this year. Or, in addition to a spillover like last year (~19k), now that we have 12k more (total of 32k), we may not be able to use it all in the last quarter. Hence to avoid wastage let us use the 12k starting in May. All the same, there seems to be more than what was available this year excluding the EB1. That is the estimation here by all of the number crunchers (32-39k). They go by perm data and trackitt data as well. I have very little to doubt the estimates by Q and others. That is because trackitt data is probably more precise this year compared to the last due to increased usage. But I am sure of one thing - there is 1.5 to 2 times more visas this year than the last.Quote:
Originally Posted by manipur
Hi,
Do you still think this year also we gonna get same spillover from EB2Row like last year, even though there are so many porting EB3-Eb2.
I am thinking this year spillover (other than 12k) will be less than last year, coz the way EB3-Eb2 porting happening in each country.
What is your take on this, anyone?
Assuming ROW demand stays same YoY .... its really ROW porting that would reduce ROW spillover (I should really say Fall Across) YoY.
Nobody seems to believe ROW porting is such a big issue since ROW EB3 is not in as dire situation as EB3IC.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mpurna77
Q, do you honestly think YoY demand is going to remain same? Given the number of pending cases in trackitt, it hardly seems sensible in my opinion.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
KD
trackitt trend suggests 5-10% reduction in YoY demand. So if we take it to bank, then that would be offset by the 10K FB spillover that has vanished from last year. So its a wash.
However you are right that ... if USCIS wants to adjudicate they have sufficient demand in pipeline that can exhaust entire ROW quota. But my gut feel is .. ROW will probably provide decent SOFAD 4-8K.
Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
Also, the May visa bulletin referred to unused first AND SECOND preference visas. So there will be some fall across from EB2 ROW. Again would highlight the significance of how conservative they are - if they do say there will be some spillover, there will be spillover :)
Q
Is there any change in projections that will make it to the front page? Still says will be updated by the end of the week. Last week?
Sorry .... have been extremely busy with personal and business stuff. Will certainly do it by tomorrow morning.
Quote:
Originally Posted by angryclubs
vishnu,Quote:
Originally Posted by vishnu
I don't think DOS mentioned SECOND preference...
"Employment-based: At this time the amount of demand being received in the Employment First preference is extremely low compared with that of recent years. Absent an immediate and dramatic increase in demand, this category will remain “Current” for all countries. It also appears unlikely that a Second preference cut-off date will be imposed for any countries other than China and India, where demand is extremely high. Based on current indications of demand, the best case scenarios for cut-off date movement each month during the coming months are as follows:
Employment Second: Demand by applicants who are “upgrading” their status from Employment Third to Employment Second preference is very high, but the exact amount is not known. Such “upgrades” are in addition to the known demand already reported, and make it very difficult to predict ultimate demand based on forward movement of the China and India cut-off dates. While thousands of “otherwise unused” numbers will be available for potential use without regard to the China and India Employment Second preference per-country annual limits, it is not known how the “upgrades” will ultimately impact the cut-offs for those two countries."
unless we want to take it as both EB1 and EB2ROW the "otherwise unused" numbers should be from EB1!
Veni - from May bulletin:
Allocation of “otherwise unused” numbers in accordance with Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) Section 202(a)(5)
INA Section 202(a)(5) provides that if total demand in a calendar quarter will be insufficient to use all available numbers in an Employment preference, then the unused numbers may be made available without regard to the annual per-country limits. Based on current levels of demand, there will be otherwise unused numbers in the Employment First and Second preferences.
"INA Section 202(a)(5) provides that if total demand in a calendar quarter will be insufficient to use all available numbers in an Employment preference, then the unused numbers may be made available without regard to the annual per-country limits. Based on current levels of demand, there will be otherwise unused numbers in the Employment First and Second preferences. "Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
shaumack,Quote:
Originally Posted by shaumack
DOS is quotingINA Section 202(a)(5) which allows them to allocate "otherwise unused" numbers, when ever they quote this section the language remain same.
But when they mentioned VISA availability they only mentioned that EB1 demand is extremely low and no mention of EB2ROW demand.
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I agree, not sure how many of the ~33.0k i140 pending at USCIS as of Feb 2011 are EB2ROW!
These days I140 approval is taking 8 months most companies would file in regular some do give the employee the option to file in premium however the employee has to pay then. I think the slow rate of I140 approval will definitely help us. According to the Trackitt model EB2 ROW usage had reached almost 89% when comparing with last year. This more or less is offsetted by the loss of the 2.8K numbers from the 10K. Now if we use the effectiveness factor to inflate the lower Trackitt numbers the calculated SOFAD is 7K which is in your range. I do agree that there will be an all out effort to approve every possible ROW case that will deprive us of some numbers but I do not see any evidence of the perm surge that was discussed 3-4 months back.Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Teddy,not entirely true ...my EB2-I friend's I140 approval filed on Feb 7,2011 got approved on May 10,2011 ..in about 3 months ....if this trend is true for EB2ROW I140 approvals then I guess we will have lesser spillover from EB2ROW.
Thanks for the correction I was quoting from the current processing times if real examples as you have quoted do not conform to that in general then really we should go by the real examples.Quote:
Originally Posted by whereismygclost
Friends I just found the following on Ron Gotchers blog there will be no FB spillover.
- http://www.immigration-information.c...us-year-13533/
Teddy, just look at the number of EB2-ROW cases pending since Oct 2010 in the I-485 tracker on trackitt.Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
whereismygclost,Quote:
Originally Posted by whereismygclost
Agree there are exceptions.
Teddy,Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Slow rate of i140 approvals is only going to help us in the short run. EB2I&C should continue to advance at the same rate( as FY2010) to clear the backlogs.
Agree we did not see ROW PERM surge but as Q pointed, will be a washout between no FB spillover and possible higher % of EB2 filings this year.
I am hoping to see at-least a hint of EB2ROW demand in July VB from DOS/USCIS!
Hi Veni :Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
I would disagree with you on this. Please see similar excerpt from April 2008 VB. In general when DOS mention statement INA Section 202(a)(5), they will also mention why they think current demand level is low. In excerpt below it clearly states unused visa numbers in Employment Second Preference only. This year it says EB1 and EB2. I believe when May visa bulletin was released, EB2 ROW demand was low. This could have changed as we will progress in the year. But I take above statement some what encoraging.
"Section 202(a)(5) of the Immigration and Nationality Act provides that if total demand will be insufficient to use all available numbers in a particular Employment preference category in a calendar quarter, then the unused numbers may be made available without regard to the annual “per-country” limit. It has been determined that based on the current level of demand being received, primarily by Citizenship and Immigration Services Offices, there would be otherwise unused numbers in the Employment Second preference category. As a result, numbers have once again become available to the India Employment Second preference category. The rate of number use in the Employment Second preference category will continue to be monitored, and it may be necessary to make adjustments should the level of demand increase substantially."
shaumack,Quote:
Originally Posted by shaumack
I agree, What they quoted with INA Section 202(a)(5) is contracting (or I should say not supporting) what they mentioned under VISA Availability Section in May 2011VB.
Since our approach is conservative, we are just waiting for more concrete info to bet on EB2ROW spillover.
Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
1. Guys I did the following query on Trackitt.Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Country of Chargeability = ROW
Category = EB2
Application filed date Jan 2011 - Apr 2011 = 151
Application filed date Jan 2010 - Apr 2010 = 199
This indicates a 25% drop from the same duration last year.
However if we look at things overall.
Application filed date Oct 2010 - Apr 2011 = 280
Application filed date Oct 2009 - Apr 2010 = 257
This indicates a 10% rise. Looks like things slowed down in 2011. As spec also pointed out earlier there was a peak in approval in Q1 CY 2011 corresponding to high filing in Q4 CY 2010 but looks likes its subsiding now. I think its still fair to say that we will get around 7K from EB2 ROW compared to 11.5K last year with the utilizations being same unfortunately we have lower cap this year.
Last year EB2IC received 26K with almost 0 from EB1 and 8k from EB2ROW.
Now even if EB2ROW gives 0, we know EB1 for sure giving 12k, so that makes a minimum of 30K sofad this year.
If EB1 gives anymore in Q3and Q4 and Eb2 yields even smaller number inventory should be cleared (understood that PWMB applications will fill to some level)
Thanks, Teddy. Yup, This was the data I was looking at.Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
biber,Quote:
Originally Posted by bieber
You are missing 10.0k FB spillover last year out of which about 7.0k filtered down to EB2I&C at the end.
Teddy,Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
If you look in the FACTS & DATA section you will find that data compiled month by month and corrected for C of C etc for Primary applicants. Contrary to your post, it shows an increasing trend, although I think it possible that this will stabilize or fall back during the remainder of the year.
It also includes two types of Corrections for October figures, which may include approvals where the visa was allocated from the previous year's quota. That is particularly pertinent, as there were major differences between FY2010 and FY2011 October approvals.
Look at the EB2-India figures first to see the effect. I don't think anyone can believe that EB2-I had only reached 69% of last year's figure at the end of April 2011.
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...ad-projections
Hi Guys how to find that our case is pre-adjudicated. is there any way. I did take info pass two times to ask what is the status they said they waiting for number. But not said exactly its got pre-adjudicated.
Any way to find this?
mine PD 12/22/2006, is it going to be current in July VB?
Infopass is the only way to know. The phrase, "waiting for visa number", appears to suggest that you have been pre-adjudicated. Do I have a guarantee, NO.Quote:
Originally Posted by mpurna77
Another way to find, with very less guarantee is monitoring SLUDs on your I-485. If you see a recent SLUD which you did not cause (like you did not change address), you may assume that some activity was happening and that the activity could have been pre-adjucation.
The thing with SLUDs though, if someone is swinging your file to get more air because the room was not cold enough, it can generate SLUDs :)
I did the following query on Trackitt, I get diffferent figures than what you have tabulated.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
I did the following query.
Country of Chargeability = ROW
Category = EB2.
Type = Primary
Status = Approved
I485 Approval / Denial Date - Oct 2009 to Apr 2010 = 285
I485 Approval / Denial Date - Oct 2009 to Apr 2010 = 264
This shows a decline of ~ 10%. Please advise if your figures for ROW also include NIW, Mex & Phl normally on Trackitt they follow the same trend. I think for ROW we should include Oct because there is nothing to stop ROW approvals unlike I/C so their approvals in Oct should be from the new years cap unlike I/C where there would be some residual approvals in Oct but the cap number came from the last years cap.
Teddy,Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Include NIW
Do not include M & P, but EB2-ALL obviously does.
I have kept these figures on a daily basis since the beginning of the year and they are reported on a consistent basis. For instance, currently the EB2-I figures contains over 30 cases that are still reported as EB3 approvals on Trackitt.
There is every likelihood of all Categories and Countries leaking into October. USCIS is so busy dealing with EB2-IC spillover, it is almost inevitable. For instance, there were only 21 Trackitt approvals for EB2-ROW in September 2010, followed by 70 in October 2010.
If only ROW showed the trend, I would likely agree with you, but that is not the case.
PS For reference EB2-ROW currently stands at 268 EB2 & 34 EB2-NIW by Country of Nationality, plus 22 from India with a ROW Chargeability, plus 4 from China with a ROW Chargeability minus 2 with Indian Chargeability plus 1 Porting cases still shown as EB3-ROW minus one duplicate plus 3 that have been removed from Trackitt since approval. Hopefully I've described that correctly. The net figure is 329.
USCIS dashboard has been updated:
http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm...=5&charttype=1
March saw quite the surge in I-140 filings. Approvals/completions also increased considerably.
kd2008,Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
Thanks for the update.
That's right not only receipts, completions also increased in March 2011(50% more compared to Feb 2011)
Now pending i140 at USCIS as of March is about 36k
I have updated i140 trending under FACTS AND DATA section, EB1 demand saw 20% jump based on March i140 data.