EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

Hi Guys,

Just thought of sharing this story...I hope it's ok to post here. If not, please delete it.

http://www.cnn.com/2011/11/07/health...html?hpt=hp_c2

http://newmomnewcancer.blogspot.com

-Tom

this is cruel, they should have a set date for the VB to come out, this coming soon thing is on for 7 days, i am refreshing the webpage every 3 mins..

maybe we shd take turns instead of everyone doing F5 :)

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Originally Posted by venkimakthal

I agree, couple of days back i written the same. Not just you every body is doing F5

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Originally Posted by venkimakthal

one of my friend visa is denied, welcome back.

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Care to explain why your friend's visa was denied?

Well the day i went for visa many people even from consulting firms got there visa's...

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Originally Posted by tackle

Care to explain why your friend's visa was denied?

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Thank you Teddy!!..waiting for VB to come thru..my PD is Nov 1 2007 :-(

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Originally Posted by venkimakthal

That sounds good, :), looks like no VB today either.

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May be we need to check Mumbai consulate website tonight.

Damn. I was sure we would see it today. What's the deal? Thought it was pretty cut and dry for this month from what we heard. Q, your insider has any news? If not, can you hit him up and see what gives.

Guys,

Is there anyway to get notification or forwards new posts from a thread to email address? I know there is thread subscription, but it requires you to visit thread after a notification.

Thanks.

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Originally Posted by tanu_75

Damn. I was sure we would see it today. What's the deal? Thought it was pretty cut and dry for this month from what we heard. Q, your insider has any news? If not, can you hit him up and see what gives.

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My brain says today.. My heart says tomorrow.. Lets wait and see.. We will see good news tomorrow .

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Originally Posted by mesan123

Been Away for a while...had a nice india trip...got visa stamped with no issues in chennai...dates did move last month...so many pages to catch up ha...congrats to my friends who became current...Soggadu bhai congrats...hoping nishanth will become current this bulletin :)

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hey mesan...welcome back...

tackle

I was going though trackitt trend.. For example during April to Sep 2011, we have a total of 959 cases in trackitt with status updated as approved. In the mean time we have seen a reduction of 13715 cases (result of October Pending case minus June pending cases from pending inventory). This ratio is approximately 7%. I do agree that accuracy of this kind of prediction depends much on the accuracy of sample data..

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Originally Posted by Sudheer

tackle

I was going though trackitt trend.. For example during April to Sep 2011, we have a total of 959 cases in trackitt with status updated as approved. In the mean time we have seen a reduction of 13715 cases (result of October Pending case minus June pending cases from pending inventory). This ratio is approximately 7%. I do agree that accuracy of this kind of prediction depends much on the accuracy of sample data..

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It makes more sense now. Thanks for the clarification.

Folks,
Obvious answer, :) Read the first page of this very same thread. IMHO, you have chances to file 485 between July through October 2012.

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Originally Posted by geevikram

Hi Guru's,
Asking the obvious question again, any rough estimate on when 07/08 will become current? Thank you so much for your response.
-Vik

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I know it's nervous time. Hang in there buddy!

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Originally Posted by doctorp

this is cruel, they should have a set date for the VB to come out, this coming soon thing is on for 7 days, i am refreshing the webpage every 3 mins..

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Nishant - Bummer today....I was refreshing the VB page every 5 minutes (could not leave the old habit !). Funny, I didnt do it when my date got current in September...My friend had to call me to convey the unexpected good news ! Didnt want to raise your BP more than what you might be experiencing ! Hang in there .....There is a good vibe on this bulletin.

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Originally Posted by Trident

Nishant - Bummer today....I was refreshing the VB page every 5 minutes (could not leave the old habit !). Funny, I didnt do it when my date got current in September...My friend had to call me to convey the unexpected good news ! Didnt want to raise your BP more than what you might be experiencing ! Hang in there .....There is a good vibe on this bulletin.

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Thank you :)

good vibes certainly needed. God bless CO, may he grace us all!

Nishanth, I'm sure you'd be through this vb. Just have to see it on official vb:)

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

Thank you :)

good vibes certainly needed. God bless CO, may he grace us all!

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This delay is giving a reason for concern . I hope the move is as predicted by CO and really hope he keeps his word .
Gurus if he is taking long to ponder the movement this bulletin , it is definitely not a very good sign for the following months.
Also , with in my friends network a lot of people i know have initiated eb3 to eb2 porting through other consulting companies . their eb3 dates are in the range between 2005 thr 2007. Not sure how big of an impact porting will have .

Hello EB2, we should remember that visa bulletin is not just EB2 I... CO has to set dates for other categories and countries as well... lets just hope that this bulletin will bring good news...

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Originally Posted by Eb2_Dec07

This delay is giving a reason for concern . I hope the move is as predicted by CO and really hope he keeps his word .
Gurus if he is taking long to ponder the movement this bulletin , it is definitely not a very good sign for the following months.
Also , with in my friends network a lot of people i know have initiated eb3 to eb2 porting through other consulting companies . their eb3 dates are in the range between 2005 thr 2007. Not sure how big of an impact porting will have .

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Familyguy, I agree ...right now mind is playing devils workshop. Let's hope for the best :-)

What happen to Spec? Where is he?

Because of election?

Whats going on?

Hi,

I have seen the following approvals in trackitt.
Doesn't it mean the PD will more than expected?

rakesh76: 07/19/2007, NSC, ------------------Approved
dxg1739 : 07/26/2007, NSC, -----------------Approved
Babugc: 07/28/2007, EB2, NSC, -----------------Approved

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Originally Posted by RMS_V13

Because of election?

Whats going on?

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AFAIK, generally election time off is only around 2 hours paid.

The two main processes that might be involved, I believe are not affected by elections.

First is CO.

Second is the contractors who open application packets, arrange in file, encash money and receipt. This is cash cow time for them and will make hay while sun shines.

We might have to wait till thursday. Murthy as well as a guy on trackitt got info from his lawyer, DOS is monitoring incoming application count.

I am not saying I believe or dont believe in this. They can surprise us anytime, worst case does seem to be thursday.

Nishant, more than that CO is gauging the dependent demand. Even if you have a count of folks who might apply based on approved I-140, the dependent count is always difficult to guess. We can use a multiplier of 2.04 but CO cannot. So he will wait it out as far as he can to get a good count on the dependent load which will help him immensely going forward. I think he wants to be as accurate as possible and avoid retrogression in future.

Eb2_Dec07,

Technically this is not a delay at all. It's still 8th of the month. Even if it were to be released today, it's still an early release.
Hang in there. you will definitely hear good news.
Best!

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Originally Posted by Eb2_Dec07

This delay is giving a reason for concern . I hope the move is as predicted by CO and really hope he keeps his word .
Gurus if he is taking long to ponder the movement this bulletin , it is definitely not a very good sign for the following months.
Also , with in my friends network a lot of people i know have initiated eb3 to eb2 porting through other consulting companies . their eb3 dates are in the range between 2005 thr 2007. Not sure how big of an impact porting will have .

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Originally Posted by leo07

Eb2_Dec07,

Technically this is not a delay at all. It's still 8th of the month. Even if it were to be released today, it's still an early release.
Hang in there. you will definitely hear good news.
Best!

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Yes- I agree.

Delay may also mean that this VB dates will remain current for coming month.

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Immi...ation%20of.pdf

I read this several times. It is perfectly clear to me looking at the bunch load of approvals, CO has already made the visa allotment for the month, he is now only waiting to decide the cut off for EB2IC it seems.

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Originally Posted by meetasn

Hi,

I have seen the following approvals in trackitt.
Doesn't it mean the PD will more than expected?

rakesh76: 07/19/2007, NSC, ------------------Approved
dxg1739 : 07/26/2007, NSC, -----------------Approved
Babugc: 07/28/2007, EB2, NSC, -----------------Approved

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Yes, very possible. I agree.

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Originally Posted by kd2008

Nishant, more than that CO is gauging the dependent demand. Even if you have a count of folks who might apply based on approved I-140, the dependent count is always difficult to guess. We can use a multiplier of 2.04 but CO cannot. So he will wait it out as far as he can to get a good count on the dependent load which will help him immensely going forward. I think he wants to be as accurate as possible and avoid retrogression in future.

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Immi...ation%20of.pdf

I read this several times. It is perfectly clear to me looking at the bunch load of approvals, CO has already made the visa allotment for the month, he is now only waiting to decide the cut off for EB2IC it seems.

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Nishant bhai,

The VB has to come out today or max tomorro. Friday (11th) is Veterans day (fed holiday) and hence they cannot release anything on that day.. Its definitely either today or tomm. for sure.. You will get current and I pray so does QBF bhai :)

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Originally Posted by Jan2008

Nishant bhai,

The VB has to come out today or max tomorro. Friday (11th) is Veterans day (fed holiday) and hence they cannot release anything on that day.. Its definitely either today or tomm. for sure.. You will get current and I pray so does QBF bhai :)

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Friend, today is tuesday, so we have wednesday and thursday also.

Positively speaking, he might be waiting so that he can extend even more than march 1st 2008, which he might be thinking a minimum. How much more he wants to think based on incoming application count or dependent factor. In fact the dependent factor sounds very plausible, theory by kd2008. You cant extrapolate incoming count that easily from few days, but dependent factor more reasonably.

The coming soon on the 1st of the month itself, cannot be relied on though. This is a bitter lesson I learnt.

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Originally Posted by Jan2008

Nishant bhai,

The VB has to come out today or max tomorro. Friday (11th) is Veterans day (fed holiday) and hence they cannot release anything on that day.. Its definitely either today or tomm. for sure.. You will get current and I pray so does QBF bhai :)

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Q any info from your source. I know I am not going to be current this month. I sincerely pray QBF gets current this month.

so does that mean he did not guage demand for Nov bulletin when he released it on the 5th?

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Originally Posted by kd2008

Nishant, more than that CO is gauging the dependent demand. Even if you have a count of folks who might apply based on approved I-140, the dependent count is always difficult to guess. We can use a multiplier of 2.04 but CO cannot. So he will wait it out as far as he can to get a good count on the dependent load which will help him immensely going forward. I think he wants to be as accurate as possible and avoid retrogression in future.

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I asked CM on http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...mber-2011.html and he replied, very good guy , always replies to such questions. his lawyer has been quite reliable in the recent past.

CM, if ever there was a time to know when the VB might be released, it this one :) please can your lawyer friend have some idea when he thinks VB may be released. of course its always with grain of salt, but begging to know if he has any idea at all, it would be very helpful.


CM_USNonImmigrants
Talked to him. He has no information on it but he believes it will be Thursday as DOS mentioned about getting some information on filings from last 2 bulletins before making any move.

Personally I do not know how they plan to figure this out. May be from number of incoming applications and all, but to segregate to specifics to EB2-IC level, it needs some intensive labor.

Personally I feel all the attorneys should file as little cases as possible in the 1st 10 Days so that CO hits a Panic button... Just a Dream...

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

I asked CM on http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...mber-2011.html and he replied, very good guy , always replies to such questions. his lawyer has been quite reliable in the recent past.

CM, if ever there was a time to know when the VB might be released, it this one :) please can your lawyer friend have some idea when he thinks VB may be released. of course its always with grain of salt, but begging to know if he has any idea at all, it would be very helpful.


CM_USNonImmigrants
Talked to him. He has no information on it but he believes it will be Thursday as DOS mentioned about getting some information on filings from last 2 bulletins before making any move.

Personally I do not know how they plan to figure this out. May be from number of incoming applications and all, but to segregate to specifics to EB2-IC level, it needs some intensive labor.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

I asked CM on http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...mber-2011.html and he replied, very good guy , always replies to such questions. his lawyer has been quite reliable in the recent past.

CM, if ever there was a time to know when the VB might be released, it this one :) please can your lawyer friend have some idea when he thinks VB may be released. of course its always with grain of salt, but begging to know if he has any idea at all, it would be very helpful.


CM_USNonImmigrants
Talked to him. He has no information on it but he believes it will be Thursday as DOS mentioned about getting some information on filings from last 2 bulletins before making any move.

Personally I do not know how they plan to figure this out. May be from number of incoming applications and all, but to segregate to specifics to EB2-IC level, it needs some intensive labor.

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AFAIK the lock box centers are now doing all the spadework.
- They would create receipts.
- Scan all contents and forward to the service centers.
- Encash the cheques.
Last month everyone seems to have received receipts within a week, this time the cheque enacshing or receipts have happened so far only for those cases filed on the 1st. My guess is even by the 10th only 50% of the cases would actually have been receipted; probably 90% of them would have been received by that time.
Good luck to everyone once again, especially to our good friend QBF.

my PD is Feb 27th 2008 :-).. Sitting right on the edge based on CO's predictions..

my destiny hinges on QBF's luck, I become current if he does :)

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

AFAIK the lock box centers are now doing all the spadework.
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Good luck to everyone once again, especially to our good friend QBF.

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Originally Posted by sha_kus

Personally I feel all the attorneys should file as little cases as possible in the 1st 10 Days so that CO hits a Panic button... Just a Dream...

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Well we should all hold filing our applications for a couple of months... that way CO will make EB2IC current.... and may be then since USCIS cannot process all these newly filed EB2IC cases, some visa numbers will be spilled to the EB3...:)