EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

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05-15-2011, 03:34 PM
Spectator

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

Check it out. The difference is not insignificant.
If true, what it means is DoS issues visas at limit for FB. But DHS only used 214.5K towards FB.

As a consequence DoS should incresae the EB 2011 limit by 10.5K. (of course that ain't gonna happen unless a pressure group brings this to notice).

Q,

Remember, we are talking about the Department of Homeland Security here - possible the most inept department of all.

They couldn't organize the proverbial piss up in a brewery!

It is far more likely that their figures are just incorrect or they have not included some for reasons of their own. They certainly do not report all visas in all sub-categories.

The figures also include Consular Processed cases, so they could have just misreported those.

In any case, the Department of State is the final authority on the number of visas issued, so no amount of pressure is going to change the lack of spillover.

Time to take the tin-foil hat off. :D

Let's not forget, it usually takes USCIS until July or August to provide DOS with the final figures to set the annual limits, so maybe it will change, but I doubt it.

The DHS Report is usually published much later than this - now I understand why!

PS Q, It really isn't worth disagreeing over. I do get frustrated at the amount and quality of data presented. Read my comments with that in mind. :)
05-15-2011, 07:48 PM
qesehmk

Spec there is nothing really to disagree about. I don't know the truth. So I only have doubts. 10.5K is a serious discrepancy. My gut feel is that DOS issued 226K but USCIS wasted 10.5K.

But I could be wrong.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

Q,

PS Q, It really isn't worth disagreeing over. I do get frustrated at the amount and quality of data presented. Read my comments with that in mind. :)
05-15-2011, 09:26 PM
ifaith

EAD - GreenCard
Hi Guys
Not related but trying to understand one more thing, since the PD moved till OCT 15th Does that mean people whose PD is before that and who became current they will get the GC within 30-90 days or they still have to go through EAD and all. The meaning of PD becoming current is that USCIS has actual numbers to give and hence the people whose PD became current will get card soon?
Is that correct?
Thanks
05-15-2011, 09:31 PM
anuran

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

Spec

Did you notice an outrageous thing. The FB "PREFERENCE" visas issued in 2010 were well under 226K limit (214.5K issued). And yet they didn't spill them over to EB in 2011. Beats me. Also another thing I never understood is that these numbers don't match with the numbers DoS published at http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/sta...tics_5240.html

We still do not know all about the 2011 spillover. Could it be that there is another 11.5k that will eventually spillover and could that be one of the reasons for earlier movement of dates? CO talked about the 12k from EB1 but tat does not mean CO has to talk about the 11.5k too. We may get this info after Sep'11.
05-15-2011, 10:12 PM
qesehmk

I thought last year they had declared the annual limit right at the beginning of the year. Didn't they?

Quote:

Originally Posted by anuran

We still do not know all about the 2011 spillover. Could it be that there is another 11.5k that will eventually spillover and could that be one of the reasons for earlier movement of dates? CO talked about the 12k from EB1 but tat does not mean CO has to talk about the 11.5k too. We may get this info after Sep'11.
05-16-2011, 07:23 AM
Spectator

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

I thought last year they had declared the annual limit right at the beginning of the year. Didn't they?

Q,

If you look at last year's VBs you will see the figure was given as at least 140,000 until the August VB, when it was announced as 150,657.

The August VB contained the following paragraph:

Quote:

F. DETERMINATION OF THE NUMERICAL LIMITS ON IMMIGRANTS REQUIRED UNDER THE TERMS OF THE IMMIGRATION AND NATIONALITY ACT (INA)

The State Department is required to make a determination of the worldwide numerical limitations, as outlined in Section 201(c) and (d) of the INA, on an annual basis. These calculations are based in part on data provided by U.S. Citizen and Immigration Services (CIS) regarding the number of immediate relative adjustments in the preceding year and the number of aliens paroled into the United States under Section 212(d)(5) in the second preceding year. Without this information, it is impossible to make an official determination of the annual limits. To avoid delays in processing while waiting for the CIS data, the Visa Office (VO) bases allocations on the minimum annual limits outlined in Section 201 of the INA. On July 7th, CIS provided the required data to VO.

The Department of State has determined the Family and Employment preference numerical limits for FY-2010 in accordance with the terms of Section 201 of the INA. These numerical limitations for FY-2010 are as follows:

Worldwide Family-Sponsored preference limit: 226,000
Worldwide Employment-Based preference limit: 150,657

Under INA Section 202(A), the per-country limit is fixed at 7% of the family and employment annual limits. For FY-2010 the per-country limit is 26,366. The dependent area annual limit is 2%, or 7,533.

I'm sure DOS knew what the figure was roughly, but not exactly.

In FY2009 USCIS the numbers were also finally fixed in August and in FY2008 it was in the September VB.

What is different this year is that DOS published the figures as 140,000 very early in this document http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Web_...cal_Limits.pdf

Whilst we can't entirely rule out any change, the previous number of available visas from FB has always been very close to the number that can be calculated from looking at the previous year's DOS report, the difference presumably being the Parolees mentions above.

Since FB is reported as being several hundred over the 226,000 limit last year, DOS are probably confident that no numbers that USCIS provide will alter the calculations.
05-16-2011, 09:05 AM
TeddyKoochu

@spec - Thanks for the find on the VB I believe they had declared this is little earlier on the demand data.
@q - If I remember correctly it was mid year in the demand data.

If we get family spillover this year I believe that the chances of crossing the Jul - Aug 2007 line are greatly increased.
05-16-2011, 09:19 AM
qesehmk

Thanks guys for checking out when FB spillover was made available.

For CY 2009, DoS issued 215K and DHS used 212K. So there too is a 3K discrepancy. However when the spillover was applied it seems DoS numbers were used as the truth and hence the Spillover was 10K as opposed to 13K.

So while I wouldn't rule out a spillover, I wouldn't have extraordinarily high hopes on it.

p.s. - If these 10K become available then July 2007 is a certainty.
05-16-2011, 09:41 AM
anuran

Approvals & Admittance

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

Thanks guys for checking out when FB spillover was made available.
For CY 2009, DoS issued 215K and DHS used 212K. So there too is a 3K discrepancy. However when the spillover was applied it seems DoS numbers were used as the truth and hence the Spillover was 10K as opposed to 13K.
So while I wouldn't rule out a spillover, I wouldn't have extraordinarily high hopes on it.
p.s. - If these 10K become available then July 2007 is a certainty.

I may be wrong, but I think DHS data is by admittance while DOS/CIS data is by approvals. That might explain the discrepancy in DHS and DOS data.
But I am still not sure about the DHS data. 10k discrepancy in data transmittance between DHS and DOS is better explained by them.
05-16-2011, 10:27 AM
qesehmk

very astute observation. Thanks. That probably clarifies it.

p.s. DHS includes CIS. DoS is a peer org of DHS. Right?

Quote:

Originally Posted by anuran

I may be wrong, but I think DHS data is by admittance while DOS/CIS data is by approvals. That might explain the discrepancy in DHS and DOS data.
But I am still not sure about the DHS data. 10k discrepancy in data transmittance between DHS and DOS is better explained by them.
05-16-2011, 10:41 AM
kd2008

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

very astute observation. Thanks. That probably clarifies it.

p.s. DHS includes CIS. DoS is a peer org of DHS. Right?

Yup, Q that is correct. Remember many/most Family-based cases are consular processed. So a visa may be approved but the person may not enter the U.S. for whatever reason.
05-16-2011, 11:01 AM
anuran

"qesehmk: DHS includes CIS. DoS is a peer org of DHS. Right?"
Yes. Guess it is such that DoS as a dept. of foreign policy administration has to have a role in immigration. And DHS being responsible for national security also has to have a role in immigration. CIS is stuck in the middle with them although their boss is DHS. I remember reading Ron (imminfo) noting that DoS punished CIS for wasting visas in 2007 by making the dates current. Imagine Railway minister in India punishing Foreign ministry because the train between India and Pak is traveling empty.
05-16-2011, 11:59 AM
soggadu

please comment

all,

Please comment on this guys predictions... What do you guys think??? Is he right/wrong??

http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...ent-based.html
05-16-2011, 12:07 PM
zenmaster

Quote:

Originally Posted by soggadu

all,

Please comment on this guys predictions... What do you guys think??? Is he right/wrong??

http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...ent-based.html

Right or Wrong kuch nahi hota.
Jiske pas power hai, uska wrong bhi right ho jata hai ! :)

Soggadu, i think, all we can do is hope that our math matches with dos math. However, i do feel we will be closing in on JULY2007 :)
05-16-2011, 12:14 PM
soggadu

Quote:

Originally Posted by ravi.shah

Right or Wrong kuch nahi hota.
Jiske pas power hai, uska wrong bhi right ho jata hai ! :)

Soggadu, i think, all we can do is hope that our math matches with dos math. However, i do feel we will be closing in on JULY2007 :)

I agree, but my main concern is would i be able to file 485 with PD being Oct 22 07. I was of the opinion that DOS will move dates till end of 2007 and then retrogress... abb pata nahi kya hoga....
05-16-2011, 12:51 PM
bieber

Soggadu

I think DOS will be aggressive in July/Aug and adjust in Sept (unless they see huge supply) which is opposite to what the blog says
05-16-2011, 12:55 PM
soggadu

Quote:

Originally Posted by bieber

Soggadu

I think DOS will be aggressive in July/Aug and adjust in Sept (unless they see huge supply) which is opposite to what the blog says

I am hoping for the same B.... Even though i try not to link immigration with any of the important decisions in life... it kinds of pushes me in the corner with respect to options available pre EAD/GC and Post EAD/GC.... Hoping to see good movement....
05-16-2011, 01:01 PM
qesehmk

So true for all of us. And that's the reason we are doing what we are doing here. Information/knowledge doesnt necessarily give anybody GC. But it sure frees people from mood swings based on hypes.

Quote:

Originally Posted by soggadu

Even though i try not to link immigration with any of the important decisions in life... it kinds of pushes me in the corner with respect to options available pre EAD/GC and Post EAD/GC....
05-16-2011, 01:10 PM
soggadu

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

So true for all of us. And that's the reason we are doing what we are doing here. Information/knowledge doesnt necessarily give anybody GC. But it sure frees people from mood swings based on hypes.

100% agree with you...
05-16-2011, 02:02 PM
ChampU

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

So true for all of us. And that's the reason we are doing what we are doing here. Information/knowledge doesnt necessarily give anybody GC. But it sure frees people from mood swings based on hypes.

Well said, Q!
05-16-2011, 02:19 PM
ChampU

Quote:

Originally Posted by soggadu

I agree, but my main concern is would i be able to file 485 with PD being Oct 22 07. I was of the opinion that DOS will move dates till end of 2007 and then retrogress... abb pata nahi kya hoga....

I guess the "Pending I-485 inventory report" holds answers to a lot of questions. We still are awaiting the report that is supposed to come out in April. If this report becomes available before the Q4 spillover season begins, it would help determine the projected demand and would have an impact on the final PD for the fiscal year.
05-16-2011, 02:29 PM
ChampU

Question about the data posted in the Facts and Data forum:

Based on Teddy's analysis, the net spillover would be around 33k.
Does that mean that 33k more visas would be made available in Q4 or does the 33k include the visas that were made available in May and June?
05-16-2011, 02:57 PM
bieber

soggadu

many of us are in the same situation, completely understand.
05-16-2011, 03:06 PM
qesehmk

Although its Teddy's number I am quite sure 33K is the full year number.

p.s. - All of us are predicting the full year SOFAD nearly in the same range.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChampU

Question about the data posted in the Facts and Data forum:

Based on Teddy's analysis, the net spillover would be around 33k.
Does that mean that 33k more visas would be made available in Q4 or does the 33k include the visas that were made available in May and June?
05-16-2011, 03:32 PM
mpurna77

Is Pending Inventory report as of Jan 5 2011 numbers only primary 485 inclusive of dependents too?. Mine Dec 22nd 2006. Is this PD gonna be current in July VB?
05-16-2011, 03:44 PM
soggadu

Quote:

Originally Posted by mpurna77

Is Pending Inventory report as of Jan 5 2011 numbers only primary 485 inclusive of dependents too?. Mine Dec 22nd 2006. Is this PD gonna be current in July VB?

purna... you will be current in July...IMO...at 485 stage each primary and dependent has their own applications...so it is inclusive...
05-16-2011, 03:46 PM
qesehmk

That report includes primary and dependents. That report doesn't contain counselar processing candidates.

You PD will become current this year. Whether it will happen next month - I think 70% probability says yes.

p.s. - DoS demand data contains both 485 inventory as well as CP but only the cases where they are preadj OR are current.

Quote:

Originally Posted by mpurna77

Is Pending Inventory report as of Jan 5 2011 numbers only primary 485 inclusive of dependents too?. Mine Dec 22nd 2006. Is this PD gonna be current in July VB?
05-16-2011, 03:48 PM
TeddyKoochu

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

Although its Teddy's number I am quite sure 33K is the full year number.

p.s. - All of us are predicting the full year SOFAD nearly in the same range.

Guys its full year but lets see we may actually exceed that, the Jun bulletin has given great hope. The biggest variable still is EB1.
05-16-2011, 03:52 PM
Spectator

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

That report includes primary and dependents. That report also includes 485 as well as counselor processing candidates.

You PD will become current this year. Whether it will happen next month - I think 70% probability says yes.

Q,

Are you sure it includes CP cases? I assume the OP is referring to the USCIS Inventory Report dated January 5, 2011.

The explanation on the USCIS site says the Inventory does NOT include CP cases, only those at the Service Centers.

Quote:

Q: What does this pending inventory report contain?

A: This report contains principal and dependent I-485s pending at the Nebraska Service Center and the Texas Service Center. It also includes the pre-adjudicated cases for which a visa number is not available and cases for which visa numbers are current but are still in process. In other words, it contains all I-485 currently pending at the two service centers as of October 1, 2010. However, there is a small population of cases within the jurisdiction of the Field Offices that are not included in this report, nor does it includes cases that are pending consular process at the overseas posts.

It wouldn't be a huge difference, because EB2-IC only has very low CP numbers.

The Demand Data includes CP, but only those that are "documentarily qualified".
05-16-2011, 04:05 PM
mpurna77

EB3-EB2 Upgrade Data

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

That report includes primary and dependents. That report also includes 485 as well as counselor processing candidates.

You PD will become current this year. Whether it will happen next month - I think 70% probability says yes.

I did download perm approval data from site and filtered on class of admission parolee.

I just got 360 from Oct 2010 - March 31.

Are these EB3-Eb2 upgrades. where can we get how many really upgrading any data point?
05-16-2011, 05:20 PM
qesehmk

There has been extensive discussion on porting on this forum. Please check out by searching.

Regarding 485 inventory, I am afraid I made a mistake. Its teh DoS demand data that includes CP. 485 inventory doesn't.

Thanks Spec for pointing it out.

Quote:

Originally Posted by mpurna77

I did download perm approval data from site and filtered on class of admission parolee.

I just got 360 from Oct 2010 - March 31.

Are these EB3-Eb2 upgrades. where can we get how many really upgrading any data point?
05-16-2011, 05:45 PM
gcwait2007

Estimated monthly demand data for July 2011

I hope that the following would be monthly demand data for July 2011 for EB2 category:

Prior to China India ROW GT
1/1/2007 2000 5000 0 7000
1/1/2008 7725 14800 0 22525
1/1/2011 7800 15000 200 23000
05-16-2011, 08:09 PM
veni001

Quote:

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Guys its full year but lets see we may actually exceed that, the Jun bulletin has given great hope. The biggest variable still is EB1.

Teddy,
I would add EB2ROW-M-P too!
And also 33k SOFAD includes EB2I&C annual quota (~6k)?
05-16-2011, 08:13 PM
veni001

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

Q,

Are you sure it includes CP cases? I assume the OP is referring to the USCIS Inventory Report dated January 5, 2011.

The explanation on the USCIS site says the Inventory does NOT include CP cases, only those at the Service Centers.

It wouldn't be a huge difference, because EB2-IC only has very low CP numbers.

The Demand Data includes CP, but only those that are "documentarily qualified".

Spec,
Does NVC waiting list include all CP cases or only "documentarily qualified"?
05-16-2011, 09:12 PM
Spectator

Quote:

Originally Posted by veni001

Spec,
Does NVC waiting list include all CP cases or only "documentarily qualified"?

Veni,

It contains all primary and dependants listed on approved I-140s received from USCIS up to November 2010.

The case does not have to be documentarily qualified to appear in the totals and I would be surprised if many of them are, since most will be far beyond the current Cut Off Dates for those Countries that are retrogressed.
05-16-2011, 09:21 PM
veni001

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

Veni,

It contains all primary and dependents listed on approved I-140s received from USCIS up to November 2010.

The case does not have to be documentarily qualified to appear in the totals and I would be surprised if many of them are, since most will be far beyond the current Cut Off Dates for those Countries that are retrogressed.

Thanks Spec,
Even if all are qualified ROW is less than 2.5k.
05-16-2011, 09:49 PM
Spectator

Quote:

Originally Posted by veni001

Thanks Spec,
Even if all are qualified ROW is less than 2.5k.

Veni,

I totally agree that the EB2 numbers for ROW are inconsequential and will be dealt with quickly since they are Current. EB2 has very low CP usage, so the same is true in general for all Countries.

Although more appropriate for the EB3 forum, it is the numbers of EB3 cases that is staggering.

ROW appear to have around 34.5k, Philippines 46.6k, China 11.9k, India 21.5k and Mexico 4.7k. In total EB3 represent nearly 120k cases awaiting Consular Processing as a result of I-140s approved and received by NVC up to November 2010.

Add on the cases awaiting AOS with USCIS and the true number must be enormous.

It really is a shame there is no breakdown by PD.
05-16-2011, 09:51 PM
soggadu

sofad

guys...

Is there any change in our SOFAD projections?

1.I read some where in page 75 or 74 that we may get some family visa spillover too?
2. ROW is consuming less, can we expect more here
3. Does EB1 provide more visa numbers than previously calculated?
4. what do you guys think in the scenario where 12K from EB1 is already used up till June 2011....
05-16-2011, 10:18 PM
veni001

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

Veni,

I totally agree that the EB2 numbers for ROW are inconsequential and will be dealt with quickly since they are Current. EB2 has very low CP usage, so the same is true in general for all Countries.

Although more appropriate for the EB3 forum, it is the numbers of EB3 cases that is staggering.

ROW appear to have around 34.5k, Philippines 46.6k, China 11.9k, India 21.5k and Mexico 4.7k. In total EB3 represent nearly 120k cases awaiting Consular Processing as a result of I-140s approved and received by NVC up to November 2010.

Add on the cases awaiting AOS with USCIS and the true number must be enormous.

It really is a shame there is no breakdown by PD.

Spec,
That's right. With the current wait time for EB3, not sure how many out of the 120k actually going to make it to end of the tunnel.
05-16-2011, 10:25 PM
veni001

Quote:

Originally Posted by soggadu

guys...

Is there any change in our SOFAD projections?

1.I read some where in page 75 or 74 that we may get some family visa spillover too? Probably not, there is data discrepancy between DOS & USCIS, unless otherwise mentioned in VB this number is zero for FY 2011
2. ROW is consuming less, can we expect more here I don't think so, check PERM and Trackitt trends +pending inventory as of 10-01-2010
3. Does EB1 provide more visa numbers than previously calculated? Most likely, based on todate EB1 trending (both i140 & trackitt)
4. what do you guys think in the scenario where 12K from EB1 is already used up till June 2011.... Our assumption is that USCIS only applied EB1 spillover until June VB, and remaining SOFAD will kick in July VB

soggadu,
Please see my responses above.

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