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Porting is high due to the heavy EB2 forward movement we saw last year. They are already reflected in Inventory/ Demand but it is unclear which category they show up in. Most folks think that they remain in the original category (EB3). There is a possibility that there is double counting but I don't know for sure.Quote:
Originally Posted by geeaarpee
Viz- I agree but that wasn't my question. By Cross-Chargeability, I meant primary being charged against India and spouse in ROW there by both (+ any dependents) using EB2/3ROW visas.Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
I'm sorry, my question was not very clear earlier.
Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
your analysis is perhaps the most reliable and logical one ,
here is my question about EB5 SO, don't you think EB2I might receive atleast 1-2 K SO as their quota has increased with FB spillover and also the demand has not increased in the latter part of the year.
In other words 11218- 9000 = 2218.
why I chose 9K is; if it were to be much higher we would have seen EB5C cutoff date before FB spillover added
Spec - if the people's conditional permanent residency is not made permanent, those issued visas go wasted or will (or can) it be recaptured in the current (or future) fiscal?Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Once someone applies for porting with approved 140 and existing 485 from Eb3I, how long will it take to adjudicate their application?
How many new porters might be there who might apply with PD until the end of 2007
As with all Conditional Residency, if conditions are not removed, the visas are not recaptured.Quote:
Originally Posted by geeaarpee
My feeling is that if in the July bulletin dates moves into 2007 then dates will end up in Q1 of 2008. If on the other hand dates move into 2006 only then we need to forget about dates moving into 2008. I believe that CO will not move the dates in sept bulletin. He will make it U or retrogress in sept.
Does anybody think because of CIR and its restrictive policies on companies like Infosys and Wipro can there be a increases EB1C demand?
I consider porting and cross-chargeability as two distinct and separate categories. Very few people use both porting and cross-chargeability at the same time.Quote:
Originally Posted by geeaarpee
An analysis of EB2-ROW Trackitt approvals from FY2011 through to present suggests that about 10% (8.4-12.0%) of approvals are due to applicants with Indian Nationality (mainly charged to the Gulf States).
The % for porting in EB2-ROW appears to be similar (7.5-11.9%).
There is not enough data to analyze Mexico and Philippines, although I suspect cross-chargeability from India is very low.
As ever, there is no official data on the subject (that I have found).
Yes I believe EB5 will provide spillover.Quote:
Originally Posted by indiani
Before the FB visas (and the problems with EB5 became apparent), CO was talking about having to retrogress EB5-C towards the end of the year. Since EB5 had 9,940 visas at that time, clearly he thought numbers were going to exceed that number when he made the comments in the VB. A lot has changed since then.
Unfortunately, all bar one fairly early number for EB5 visas used, a very tight lid has been kept on EB5 visa usage this year. It's a big contrast to previous years.
Thanks Spec - the reason I asked, I personally know a few cases that are using this route with Nepal Chargeability, but not sure how their I-140s will be approved as their EB3 Priority dates are in the 2010s and how they got qualified for EB2 (the experience route, not the masters route) in these 3 years is doubtful, probably they are trying to recapture their old experience, not sure.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
In general I have the same feeling that for the dates to go into 2008, jan 2007 should be the minumum movement in july bulletin but once again things are so unpredictable with uscis that there could be little movement in july bulletin with major movement in august bulletin.Quote:
Originally Posted by druvraj
I just wouldnt even think about CIR until there is a house bill that is passed and which is close to senate bill.
almost everyone agrees that senate bill will pass by july.
There is not even a bill in the house yet , so I dont think CIR will become law by this yr ending and once it goes into next year, odds of passing are slim.
Tea party is emboldened with all the scandals and Tea Party 2.0 will start next yr and they will come back with vengence as they feel that they have been oprressed in last election cycle.
I have been following politics in this country for 13 yrs and my prediction is CIR has about 10% chances of passing that too like obamacare with very slim margin and barely making it to finish line that too early spring next yr
Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
some thoughts about the EB1 numbers -
1. Last year as you have repeatedly mentioned EB1 I came in at 24% of all approvals. Why do you think that is - is it cause Kazarian has made approvals for other countries lengthy v/s India as India applies mostly in certain EB1 categories that are not impacted by kazarian?
2. In Jan CO mentioned that EB 1 I had crossed 2800. I know we should not prorate and I can see in your data that after Jan Eb1 I approvals have reduced. But lets say if we prorate and so annually EB1I would be - 2800 * 3 = 8400. Now if EB1 I approvals revert to the historical percentage of total approvals that would be trouble for EB1 right? Have you taken that into consideration in your calculations?
July bulletin cut off date for EB2I prediction is like predicting land fall of a hurricane, there is a wide range of possible areas where they can land.
having said that I would like to throw in my prediction at jan to august 2007 , i encourage everyone to do so, we all know the SO numbers to the best that can be extrapolated
My prediction(wish) is that the cutoff will move to August 2008 :)
I agree with you that there is slim chance of CIR passing. What it does is that big companies like Wipro, TCS and Infosys do not want to take risks and they are the ones who have abused EB1-C category(Not EB1-China). Mind you I am not against these companies for if I was the executive I would have done the same. As a result we have high EB1 usage and the FA as a result is small if not none. In fact when I first heard the FB visas are going to used in EB category I was under the impression that all the 18K or so would be used by EB2/3 - I. None by EB1/4/5. EB2WW also panicked last year as result of HR3012.Quote:
Originally Posted by indiani
What also bothers me is the unpredictability of this bulletin. In this day and age numbers should be made available and if at all there has to be a movement it has to be about the transparency. Let us hope for the best!!!
My prediction: 1st month : Dec 2007 and 2nd Month somewhere in 2008 (most probably Dec 2008) and 3rd month go up or down??
May I jump in with my numbers too?
SO can range I think from 12K to 32K depending on what the real numbers are and what the pending demand translates into.
As far as date movement for EB2I is concerned, I am not too optimistic on it making it to 2008. If my recollection of past history is correct, then CO will move first to 2006 and then tackle 2007 in the next month. This means a bunch of porters will join the line stalling the date movement further.
July movement is not a done deal either. If CO feels there are too many clouds hanging around on the horizon esp. with EB5 and EB1 usage, then he will be trigger shy and hold off movement.
I'll play the game for a bit of fun, but it is a guess.
July VB - 01JAN07 - depending on his confidence level it could be pushed further, but that is less likely IMO.
August VB - 01AUG07 to 01JAN08 depending on what the numbers look like.
September VB - balance to expected available numbers (with a contingency to cover unexpected low use by other Categories) - maybe March/April 2008 at best.
CO has visibility of the numbers in other Categories, which we don't. Depending on what they look like, it might make a big difference.
Historical movement has been a bit confusing and what happened previously may not apply now.
In FY2008 and FY2009, there was no movement until the August VB. In FY2008, most of the movement was in August, while in FY2009 there was good movement in both August and September.
In FY2010, there was good movement in July/August and relatively little in September.
In FY2011, movement started in May, but most movement was in June/July. August showed little movement and there was no movement in September.
We know what happened last year.
Any guess can be made to look stupid when we see the actual VBs.
My Guess:
No movement for July, Aug. There will be a move to 2008 more likely towards the end... this kind limits additional backlog via porting and might offer CO the best chance the clear the maximum from pre adjudicated. That being said I hope I am wrong... personally perfer steady movement to random jumps.
Here you go... The spectator turns in to a speculator! What if you lose spec, will you stop predicting (rather calculating)?Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Of course, just for fun - nothing personal please!
Movement could be July/August and no movement sept, as USCIS will have load of EB3ROW apps to work on starting August
I don't want him to stop calculating, even though I desperately want him to lose, who would like April 2008 as closing COD for Fy'13? :-) How many of us turn into DHS/DoS/USCIS websites for previous years' numbers ? The Facts and Data Section of this forum is a mini handbook needless to say his hard work behind (Thanks to Veni too). Spec, keep going!
Yes, The Facts and Data Section gives us a lot of information. I am definitely sure Spec do put much time and effort into it. Kudos to Spec!Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
Regarding dates moving beyond March/April 2008, if it happens, will be an added bonus!!
It is bonus season at my company. I'd gladly forego my work bonus if I get my GC this year :) Unfortunately that's not likely.Quote:
Originally Posted by MATT2012
me too....nothing can be more valuable than one's professional freedom. Once we have the GC, I'm sure we can recoup these bonuses in our future work lives!
Matt, I knew April 2008 is the halting point agreed by many, but 2009-ers would like to stretch little more beyond that.Quote:
Originally Posted by MATT2012
All Gurus,
There was a practice of second finger printing until FY 2008, once the validity of first FP expires in 15 months. I know it did not happen in many cases last FY. Is there any official memo about when is second FP required/ circumstances of second FP waiver?
Thanks,
Matt
The only way 2009 PD could get GC this last Q is if CO will move dates until 2009 or later and skip most of the 2007/2008 PD applicants and give randomly like a lottery.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
As there is very little accountability and their own lives won't get affected in anyway, they will do whatever they feel like, even though I suspect with so many pre-adjudicated cases its extremely unlikely that will happen.
Its almost impossible that there is enough spillover to cover 2009, b'cos lets say there was enough spillover then CO might have started moving in 3rd Q and not wait until 4th Q.
My intention is not to kill anyone's hopes but want to give realistic picture so they could make sound judgements based on more accuarate information
indiani, You made my day !!Quote:
Originally Posted by indiani
There are atleast 36k regular applications ahead of me excluding porting, how could I even dream of that happening?
If suppose FY-13 halts at Apr 2008, May-Dec 2008 inventory plus porting will cover the entire FY-14 which would push 2009-ers to wait few more years.
My intention to stretch dates little more was atleast to september 2008, which will give a good start for the rest of 2008 + some 2009 ers.
I agree, my post was not clear, I could bring only 10% of my thoughts into print, my bad.
The logical answer is NO because many 2007 PD applicants who applied in 2012 jan or before should have gotten repeat Finger print notice by now. We did'nt so they just wouldn't ask anyone to re-submit , as far as memo I don't know how to locate one.Quote:
Originally Posted by MATT2012
Quote:
Originally Posted by MATT2012
1. Multiple biometric data requests.
Many commenters pointed to the fact that applicants or petitioners must provide biometric data more than once. Some commenters considered the expiration of fingerprints submissions to be inefficient. Others suggested that it was inefficient for USCIS to again request fingerprints when they apply for sequential benefit applications. USCIS agrees that an applicant should not be required to provide biometric data multiple times for a single application. USCIS is developing the Biometrics Storage System (BSS) w hich will allow the re-use of fingerprints and, if an application or petition has not been adjudicated within the fifteen month validity period, USCIS will be able to simply re-submit the stored fingerprints to the FBI, without any involvement of the applicant or petitioner. See 72 FR 17172 (Apr. 6, 2007) (establishing a new system of records). Also, as a matter of policy, when an application remains pending, USCIS does not charge the applicant the biometric fee again because of a processing delay at USCIS.
http://www.uscis.gov/ilink/docView/F...-0-139156.html
2. Question: What can be done to avoid repeated requests for fingerprints when it has already been established in connection with a previous application that the person's fingerprints are non-readable.
Individuals who have physical conditions which make it difficult to obtain readable prints are continually sent back for fingerprints, which delays the final adjudication of the application. This is a hardship for individuals to repeatedly have to return for a procedure which has already been shown to be unobtainable. What is the procedure in a case like this?
Response: USCIS policy establishes the validity period for one set of readable fingerprint results as 15 months.
Where a set of fingerprints are readable, the fingerprint result remains on record with USCIS and may be used to satisfy the fingerprint requirement associated with each and every additional form submitted by, and processed for, the same applicant during the 15 month validity period.
Where an applicant submits a set of fingerprints that quality assurance review suggests is likely to be rejected by the FBI as unable to classify, standard practice in the field is to take a second set of fingerprints on a card using the manual ink method. This card is submitted if and when the first submission is returned as rejected thus alleviating the need for a return visit by the applicant.
If fingerprints are deemed unclassifiable by two sets of rejected prints, applicants shall not be rescheduled for additional fingerprints to be taken, provided either reject notice is less than 15 months old. In extreme cases, where a biometrics technician cannot capture any fingerprints due to a physical impairment, a fingerprint waiver may be issued at the discretion of the Application Support Center manager. In all cases, whether the two sets of fingerprints are rejected or the applicant has been granted a fingerprint waiver, the applicant must complete a Police Clearance Notice and return it to the Application Support Center where s/he originally had her/his appointment.
If you have confirmed cases of individuals with unclassifiable prints being repeatedly rescheduled for biometric collection in association with an application or petition for immigration benefits, please bring those cases to our attention.
http://www.uscis.gov/files/nativedocuments/MARCBOQA.pdf
isantem, In continuation of your posts in EB3 thread, below information could be helpful in the travel context.
"If I file Form I-131 for a reentry permit while I am in the
United States, can I submit my biometrics while I am
outside the United States?
No. When you file your Form I-131 to obtain a reentry permit, USCIS will notify you when to appear at a designated Application Support Center (ASC) to obtain your biometrics. You must provide your biometrics at the ASC while you are in the United States. If you leave the United States before you provide your biometrics, USCIS may deny your application."
http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/B5en.pdf
Thank you for sharing the above info. I think based on what I will see in the VB on July 10th I will decide if I travel or not. If I do, I will file for I-485 just at the end of August when I will be back in country to avoid any problems.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
Thank you Kanmani for the documents, I got exactly what I wanted from the links you provided. You have a great treasure of document links, truly amazing!!Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
Hi Spec,
Did you happen to see I-526 statistics until March 31st,2013. I am not sure whether somebody shared already.
http://iiusablog.org/wp-content/uplo...ling-stats.pdf
Thanks,
Matt
only 1526 approvals in first 2 Q's and if there are total 3K approvals for entire year, does it mean rest of the spillover comes to EB2I.Quote:
Originally Posted by MATT2012
I believe I do not understand this scenario completely but MATT or anyone else pls correct me and share any further details
I526 to GC conversion ratio is close to 3 times, if I am not wrong.Quote:
Originally Posted by indiani
sorry , I didn't understand, can you elaborate it bit more.Quote:
Originally Posted by MATT2012
How is the conversion 3 times when 526 approval itself means conditional GC in EB5.
i thought 1526 are total EB5 conditional GC in 1st half
I-526 is very similar to our I-140, meaning it is the stage to prove eligibility for GC with an investment. As many EB-5 cases are CP cases, once it reaches that stage dependents are added to it. So for every I-526, the approx. conversion is 3 times. My understanding is very limited, Spec or somebody else can pitch in to provide more clarity.Quote:
Originally Posted by indiani
Matt,Quote:
Originally Posted by MATT2012
Thanks, that is very useful information. I already had the Receipt (and Completion info) from the USCIS Dashboard. The Approval numbers are the last piece of information I needed.
The corresponding period last year had 2,100 I-526 approvals compared to the 1,526 shown in the report for this year.
Overall for the YTD, the approval % for I-526 is 76%, slightly down from FY2012 (79%).
Visa usage per approved I-526 has remained fairly constant at 2.9 according to the DHS Handbook. A simple prorating of the H1 approvals would result in 8,851 visa usage in EB5, but I do think that may be too simplistic.