Just to clarify ... this house bill will conference with its senate version not with CIR. They are two separate things.
(This is a good reading on how conferences work. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_...ence_committee)
This has zero chance of passing senate. Absolutely Zero because Obamacare is a bigger cornerstone of democratic future when compared with CIR.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jackbrown_890
oh yes, i am aware of the house passed budget and senate version of the budget, i was just saying "What IF" dems do that. I understand, Dems don't need to attach anything and just pass the budget and it will still go to the conference..and possibly conference will remove "Defund obamacare" and pass it...OR shutdown for few days/weeks.
House can again attach keystone pipeline and it will be a never ending story in each side attaching their pet projects and it is not the way to negotiate..Quote:
Originally Posted by jackbrown_890
The reason dems won't do such thing is because they want to clearly isolate the republicans that any negotiation holding "shutdown of govt" as hostage is not the right way to negotiate.. as Obama said it is similar to "extortion"
well, yes i agree with you, both sides are not going to add everything they want to this but as GOP voted 41st time to defund obamacare (including this budget) to mainly please their conservative base(even though they know it is not going to pass in the senate), Dems have a chance to energize their base (mainly latino) by attaching CIR to the budget to get back to GOP if shutdown down is unavoidable (from GOP side) for few days/weeks. This move may help keep immigration supporters energized for few more weeks till they reach agreement on the budget and come back to immigration issue. The problem right now is the CIR proponents' enthusiasm is fading away and as many have mentioned, CIR may head towards a slow death..
Jack - I suggest you read that link I provided earlier. The very first line says ...Quote:
A conference committee is a committee of the Congress appointed by the House of Representatives and Senate to resolve disagreements on a particular bill.
So first this committee is Ad Hoc i.e. formed as needed. Secondly the focus is a particular bill.
Now as idiotic says - yes indeed any pet projects can be inserted into it. But they are generally what is considered "pork barrel" projects that a senator or congressman is basically bought with in return for his vote on that bill.
CIR is an entirely different bill and there is Zero chance that democrats would like to sneak in its provisions in bills where focus is not immigration.
Unfortunately this is exactly what I tried to explain to Rupen the other day and it seems there is this misconception (or propaganda) out there that CIR can conference with any other bill. While technically true - practically I do not know any major bill like CIR findings its way into a conference of any other bill.
Sorry I didn't mean to say you are wrong. But just wanted to clarify this misconception that exists out there.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jackbrown_890
My view is this gang of 7 bill closely resembles senate version and will serve as "Trojan horse" bill evolving out of final conference committee which will have critical mass of votes to pass in both senate and house finally..Quote:
Originally Posted by geterdone
The reason of leaving and timing is very dubious.. Let us see how these two senators vote in the final bill if it gets to that stage :)
Also, even if they ended up finishing it, Goodlatte will send it to dustbin publicly by never bringing it to house judiciary committee as he is already going the piecemeal way publicly..
Quote:
Originally Posted by jackbrown_890
CIR is a priority for sure.. but budget battle is not the right place to do this.. Best and easiest way for democrats to win the budget battle is make the republicans look like "smugglers demanding extortion".. If we tie multiple issues then it will only muddle the water in front of public..Quote:
Originally Posted by jackbrown_890
Too early to declare.. October is an interesting month and Goodlatte has publicly agreed he will bring 4 more bills and they will come to house floor as a vote.. Antiimmigrant groups are already resigned to this fact and now fighting for #noconference :)Quote:
Originally Posted by jackbrown_890
both of you are right, as i said it was "Wild thought", and Dems most probably won't do that.
plus i know it is easy for GOP to include "defund Obamacare" in the budget since there is a funding for it in the budget; thn to attach CIR provisions (not impossible).
i guess i should say this is more of my wishful thinking to re-energize the CIR debate..(has close to 0% chances of happening)
on the related issue,, any thoughts on possible govt. shut-down and effect of it on Spillover...
btw, sorry if you have already discussed it, (i ll check last few days' posts later in the evening) again I have been out of loop for awhile...with a new baby, not getting much time to sit back and read/enjoy/enlighten myself; all u gurus' analysis and discussions..
I think declaring house gang of 7 as dead is the best way to reenergize the public to participate in the marches already well scheduled in October in various cities.. Let us see..Quote:
Originally Posted by jackbrown_890
Welcome to Parenthood :) CIR debate is not worth anywhere close to spending time with your precious :)Quote:
Originally Posted by jackbrown_890
Big news jack! Nothing is worth more. Stay awake and give the new mom some rest. Something I regretted not having done with our first baby. Many many congratulations and wish the new baby all the health wealth and wisdom.Quote:
Originally Posted by jackbrown_890
Thank you Q & Idiotic
Cat is out of the bag..Quote:
Originally Posted by idiotic
http://gutierrez.house.gov/press-rel...gration-reform
The strategy was detailed at a meeting hosted by Pelosi last week with top House Democrats and several immigration-rights advocates, the sources said. The plan would be to publicly release the bill timed to the Oct. 5 National Day of Action that is meant to mobilize grass-roots support and pressure the House Republican leadership to take up immigration reform that includes a pathway to citizenship.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2013/0...#ixzz2flN1CmKE
http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/the-a...=BrookingsInst
Nice summarization of facts happened last week
http://judiciary.house.gov/hearings/..._10012013.html
Another hearing.. Hopefully we will have markups on actual bills soon
If I am Obama, I would take this Shutdown discussion and bargain with GOP on Immigration in House... I will give a 6 months to 1 year time delayfor ObamaCare to take effect, but will bargain for Senate Immigration bill to be introduce in House, which will then pass as is with the 20 or so republican support. Won't this be a great win for both Dems and GOP?
Wishful thinking though... :)
Obamacare is far more important for Obama's legacy than Immigration reform. I mean Obama would love to get Immi reform passed as well but if it comes down to protecting his legacy ...Obama care by far will outweigh anything else. Also it is a big deal for the Democractic party.Quote:
Originally Posted by GCSeekerIndia
I personally do not beleive CIR in any form or piecemeal bills being touted by the Repubs have any chance of passing in late October. Rep Goodlatte and Rep Mike Mccaul head the House Judiciary and Homeland security committes respectively. However rest of the Repub party is in no mood to compromise on the heart of Immigration reform which is border security ( according to them )
http://www.latintimes.com/articles/8...m#.UknadT_-vIg
Quote:
A spokesman for Eric Cantor, the House Majority Leader and Republican from Virginia, told the AP that moving forward on immigration reform "remains a priority" but added that "right now there's no firm timetable". And the bills which Goodlatte seeks to bring up first don't address the question which Democrats consider to be at the heart of immigration reform: what sort of legal status to extend to the estimated 11 million undocumented immigrants living in the United States. Cantor and Goodlatte are planning to sponsor a bill which would partially address the question by making some undocumented immigrants brought to the US as children eligible for citizenship.
There is still the shutdown...Many thought even the shutdown would not come to pass.This is the first shutdown in 17 yrs and the Repubs are not conceding anything ..The debt ceiling fight is upcoming on Oct 17th and there is no reason to think at this point that it will be any easier......
The GOP has long forecast that Obamacare will fail when it is implemented, and that it will result in a landslide victory for the GOP in the 2014 elections. Now that initial data indicates that the trainwreck don't seem to be coming to bear (regardless of hitches with the websites) and prices are actually coming out to be quite reasonable, some in the GOP are worried that the law might actually become popular. When half of the country realize they like this thing they've been told was going to be awful, they might sour on the senators and congressmen that have been leading a crusade against it thusfar, and hand the GOP an electoral defeat in 2014. That may be the onus for the 1 year delay strategy the GOP is orchestrating in the House.
Anyway if Obamacare endures, and is successful, this will be one of the biggest political ironies ever. Obama and the Dems getting credit for bringing healthcare costs under control using a plan written by conservatives and first implemented by a GOP Governor, that leads to Democrat control over both houses of government, thereby permitting Obama to pass immigration reform, gay right laws, gun control and every other liberal fantasy legislation in his final 2 years in power. How's that for wishful thinking!
Anyway, I agree with gcseeker. Obamacare is far more important to the democrats right now than immigration overhaul. They won't trade one for the other.
Exactly right.. If what they say(Obama care will fail on its own weight) is true, they can just let it fall and reap the benifits of it in next election..Quote:
Originally Posted by Pedro Gonzales
Tying immigration reform or other things to this debate is day dream.. I am not sure even Mr. Amnesty will think about it as an option :)
http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/...59.html?page=3
hopefully it is changing ---also saw in the news that some repubs are working in the background
I just signed the @FWD_us petition telling the House to pass #immigration reform. Add your name today: http://bit.ly/16Dj0uV
4 partisan bills(not so much except bits and pieces) from house judiciary committee are already passed and placed on house calender..Quote:
Originally Posted by geterdone
Also bipartisan border security bill(HR 1417) from homeland security committee is also in house calender..
KIDS act is the main bill which is remaining along with few others.. House judiciary committee is holding a hearing on entry exit system today.. Homeland security committee already held a similar hearing few days back.. Once actual bills are ready they will be marked up and will be placed on house calender in no time..
Things will turn to immigration once appropriations and debt ceiling fights are over..
Sit back and enjoy the political drama while doing the action items recommended by the lobbyist of your choice..
House Judiciary Cmte @HouseJudiciaryQuote:
Originally Posted by idiotic
Today's scheduled markup and hearing have been postponed.
House Democrats, frustrated by the lack of action by House leadership and fearing all hope of a bi-partisan comprehensive immigration reform bill is lost, are expected to introduce an immigration bill of their own today.
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/house...ry?id=20440034
Just an eyewash measure as the article itself states thisQuote:
Originally Posted by psychedelicNerd
Quote:
Sources say the bill's supporters realize that it has little chance of passing because there is still no indication that House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, would allow it to come to a vote.
Boehner has said repeatedly he has no plans to bring the bi-partisan Senate bill to the house floor.
Instead, sources acknowledge, the bill will receive predominantly Democratic support and languish in the House without ever coming to a vote.
Quote:
Originally Posted by idiotic
Rescheduled on 10/09 .. Is it an indication that House republicans are expecting the shutdown drama to be over before 10/09 internally? Good news!!
http://judiciary.house.gov/hearings/..._10092013.html
This is showing as cancelled now...Quote:
Originally Posted by idiotic
Yes.. started showing as cancelled again from today morning..Quote:
Originally Posted by seahawks2012
It seems to be caught in the hostages list for Obamacare ransom right now..
http://homeland.house.gov/markup/ful...41-and-hr-3202Quote:
Originally Posted by idiotic
Here is the actual bipartisan bill on the same topic.. This bill just requires some plan to be submitted by Napalitano's replacement..
So, totally house bills now total to 4 from House judiciary committee and 2 from House homeland security committee. I guess just amnesty piece(KIDS Act) is missing..
5 of them already in house calender ready to vote..
http://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/113/hr3141
98% chance of getting past committee :)
27% chance of being enacted..
Goodlatte is busy with Tea Party for an hearing on to impeach Obama instead of the immigration hearings :) http://www.codewit.com/north-america...hment-hearingsQuote:
Originally Posted by seahawks2012
IQ factor of Tea Party astounds me.. How much time is wasted on not doing real things and doing things like impeaching Obama / defunding Obamacare / repealing Obamacare 50+ times.. No wonder they are making into all the Late night comedy shows unedited..
As usual some sense prevails by Boehner doing the right thing at the end of every game .. http://thehill.com/blogs/on-the-mone...on-senate-deal Immigration game will be no different..
Tea party has the best IQ. They knew it is difficult to defund obama care. But by trying this they can block Obama's other legislative agendas including immigration. They successfully delayed many other items and also constantly weakened the presidency. For past 2 weeks they made Obama to sit just in WH and talk just about shut down. Also they successfully killed immigration reform by delaying it. Do you think tea party is that much stupid to add 30 million democrat votes in next 20 years? Now at most they will pass some piecemeal bills which will not be accepted by Senate.Quote:
Originally Posted by idiotic
Wild imagination.. They have given popularity to Obamacare among americans to know about their new entitlement..Quote:
Originally Posted by Ramsen
Also, Farm bill conference was setup amid all this Chaos.. Immigration debate is upcoming..
They have hurt the republican party so much now that even some republicans are trying to disassociate themselves from the movement. Pro business groups vs Tea party groups fight will define the republican party in future.. For example, on today's vote, business is saying vote yes and tea party groups are saying vote no.. http://thehill.com/blogs/on-the-mone...es-senate-deal
leadership is urging yes.. http://thehill.com/homenews/house/32...ck-senate-deal
With the republicans party's rating drop and internal rifts, my personal opinion is that if the Democrats and/or President Obama play the cards right, they can get Boehner to put the Senate CIR bill on floor for voting. If I remember correctly, I think I read an article sometime in Aug. that there are just enough republicans votes in House to clear senate version of CIR.Quote:
Originally Posted by idiotic
Obama did say he will focus on immigration reform right after a deal is reached on the current Govt. shutdown. Maybe this shutdown will be a blessing for Immigration Reform? Only time will tell...
The way it will play out is house will pass piecemeal bills and then go into conference with senate.. boehner has to break the so called unconstitutional "hastert rule" to bring the compromised bill to the floor for a vote and it will pass with support of democrats and moderate republicans just like it did in senate.. there are approximately 18 odd republican senators and 80 odd house republicans (our high IQ tea party team) who will vote no for just about anything constructive including something like clean CR or debt ceiling or immigration reform.. they will hold 2 weeks of hearings to impeach obama and the same dead on arrival repeal obamacare bill 40+ times wasting everyone's time.. the only good thing they did was the "sequestration" in 2011.Quote:
Originally Posted by gten20
Though they are losing the people support Tea party was standing up for their policy. America will live with many issues due to Obama care. Each and every person in republican is opposing Obama Care. It was highly unusual that such a big socialism bill passed without a single republican vote. They disassociated with tea party not because of the policy of tea party but because they cannot win in this fight. Democrats played for their advantage than concentrating on resolving the issue. Immigration debate will come and go but no bill will go to President office after this big bitter fight.Quote:
Originally Posted by idiotic
For now they might hurt Republican party. Still this fight will be helpful for some especially Mcconnell to win the 2014 election. I still strongly believe GOP will take over the house again though with slim margin. Yes America is divided by policy. American rarely give all the powers to one party(read the history). Of course any party will attempt to have permanent President,house and Senate but rarely happens.
This is so true and is a good thing.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ramsen
Interesting read.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/1...n_4109716.htmlQuote:
"I think what he has done over the past two and a half weeks -- he's trying to destroy the Republican party," Labrador said of Obama. "I think that anything we do right now with this president on immigration will be with that same goal in mind, which is to destroy the Republican party and not to get good policies."
They have no policy on Obamacare. Their policy is to just to repeal it without any constructive alternatives. They are not party of ideas anymore (like the initial Heritage foundation). I did post many links in this forum before how Obamacare stemmed from original republican ideas(Heritage foundation initial volumes).Quote:
Originally Posted by Ramsen
The whole battle is a last ditch **whatever it takes** to stop Obamacare before people realize it is actually good. Truth is they are afraid it will succeed.
Look at history.. It is otherwise.. Romneycare rolled out in 2005 and is very successful. Nothing will be different for Obamacare.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ramsen
Its ok to disagree on policy but there has to be some sense on how to disagree. Even republicans agree that tea party just lacks the sense completely.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ramsen
Group insurance is not socialism.. Again it is a republican idea(original hertigage foundation)..Quote:
Originally Posted by Ramsen
The grown up repulicans disassociated because they wanted not to be seen as high school bullies.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ramsen
Again, telling Democrats their biggest ever legislative achivement is an **issue** itself is debatable. No wonder they wont get solution.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ramsen
No one knows.. Let us wait and see.. Main thing is debate will happen regardless of the fight.. you originally mentioned the whole fight is to avoid the debate.. On Immigration both moderate republicans(pro business) and democrats agree.. only the tea party republicans disagree.. It is the tail of the party not the head.. The head is the business..Quote:
Originally Posted by Ramsen
Like John McCain said, it is one of the worst chapters in american political history..Quote:
Originally Posted by Ramsen
If anyone used the whole thing for their personal gain, it is "Ted Cruz".. Atleast McConnell got "Kentucky kickback" for his constituents. What did Ted Cruz bring for this constituents apart from publicilty(both bad and good) for himself..Quote:
Originally Posted by Ramsen
It would be a good thing actually to keep the policies in check.. because right now America is divided country on policy and so should be the government too..Quote:
Originally Posted by Ramsen
Agreed. No one wants one rule monopoly.. there has to be healthy debate between moderate republicans and moderate democrats on policy.. the extermism should be punished and put on its place duly just like what will happen to Tea Party folks..Quote:
Originally Posted by Ramsen