EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

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10-09-2015, 07:22 PM
asaxena2

Quote:

Originally Posted by YTeleven

See the VB section A. It clearly shows that the broken ties between USCIS & DOS after the Oct15 fiasco.
DOS has published the acceptance dates but they are asking to go to USCIS website to actually use those dates and file the 485.
The language looks like unless USCIS authorizes those dates in their website then only one should use the acceptance dates:
--------------
Unless otherwise indicated on the USCIS website at www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo, individuals seeking to file applications for adjustment of status with U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) in the Department of Homeland Security must use the “Application Final Action Dates” charts below for determining when they can file such applications. When USCIS determines that there are more immigrant visas available for the fiscal year than there are known applicants for such visas, USCIS will state on its website that applicants may instead use the "Dates for Filing Visa Applications" charts in this Bulletin.
--------------

Are you still sure about your eb2 and eb 3 predictions for 2016 ?
10-09-2015, 07:35 PM
Ramsen

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

Spec - I always thought DoS is much more in tune with EB immigration while USCIS is almost anti-immigrant.

The whole idea of accepting 485 or not based on Visa Bulletin dates is purely a discretionary policy by USCIS that can be done away with in a heartbeat. It has no basis in any law as far as I know. Correct me if I am wrong.

So USCIS is a significant reason why all the backlogged candidates are in pain.

When there is not enough demand to process the GC then DOS/USCIS can make all the categories current theoretically. But in practical that is not feasible. I would tell one example.For Eb2-I I think they moved up to 2010 April. That means persons with EB2 are processed with finger print and other process and waiting just for visa numbers. So when visa number is availablethey are going to get GC within a few months and some times as early as a few weeks as all of the other processing was completed including FP and medicals. So till PD of April 2010 it willmove slowly. For example when PD April 2010 hits then at that time no one will be available to process. So DOS/USCIS do not have a demand and they can move the date very fast similar to 2012 or 2007The movement will happen until enough persons are done with FP and medicals. So PD could move fast for 3 to 6 months. In that case there might be 300k persons could file I485. But that is a scenariowill play out once in 5 years. That does not mean that they have to move PD arbitarily to give EAD to many thousands. Regarding the October VB they could have moved AD for 2009 on Sept 9th itself.But they might have made a mistake (I am sure many were upset because just they showed the cake and then got back. Instead they would not have give the cake) by time pressure and later they might have realized. We cannot say whether they are correct by legally( That will be decided by court in a few months). But it was very big mistake and thousands were impacted emotionally
10-09-2015, 07:49 PM
Spectator

USCIS are still at it!

I just noticed a small change to the USCIS Filing dates page http://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo

Earlier today, it said:

Quote:

Note: The Department of State (DOS) normally posts the new Visa Bulletin the second week of the month before it will take effect. The DOS Visa Bulletin is the official source of these charts. For ease of reference, below is the current chart (posted within two days of DOS’ new Visa Bulletin).

Currently you can check that for yourself by looking at the cached page http://webcache.googleusercontent.co...&ct=clnk&gl=us (that will change over time)

Even though USCIS have not yet updated the figures to the November ones, sometime today, that section was changed to:

Quote:

Note: The Department of State (DOS) normally posts the new Visa Bulletin the second week of the month before it will take effect. The DOS Visa Bulletin is the official source of these charts. For ease of reference, below is the current chart (posted within two days of DOS’ new Visa Bulletin).

USCIS will determine which chart is effective for the following month approximately one week after DOS publishes the Visa Bulletin and we will post that chart on this page.

It appears they forgot to take out the previous reference to two days.

Sneaky [redacted comment]!!!
10-09-2015, 08:15 PM
asaxena2

EB 3 AN EB 2 PREDICTIONS for 2016 .How good they are after this visa bulletin?
10-09-2015, 08:47 PM
gcvijay

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

I just noticed a small change to the USCIS Filing dates page http://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo

Earlier today, it said:

Currently you can check that for yourself by looking at the cached page http://webcache.googleusercontent.co...&ct=clnk&gl=us (that will change over time)

Even though USCIS have not yet updated the figures to the November ones, sometime today, that section was changed to:

It appears they forgot to take out the previous reference to two days.

Sneaky [redacted comment]!!!

Does this mean CO will move the Filing Dates for EB2 China and INDIA and republish the VISA bulletin? This shows a clear politics of fight b\w Govt Agencies.
10-09-2015, 09:12 PM
Spectator

Has Anyone Read Greg Siskind's Theory?

http://blog.ilw.com/gregsiskind/2015...ning-visagate/

I'm not going to comment because I think I'll get into a lot of trouble if I do so.
10-09-2015, 09:16 PM
Spectator

Quote:

Originally Posted by gcvijay

Does this mean CO will move the Filing Dates for EB2 China and INDIA and republish the VISA bulletin? This shows a clear politics of fight b\w Govt Agencies.

gcvijay,

No, it means AOS applicants won't know whether they can use the Filing Date for up to a week after the VB is published because only USCIS can provide that information.
10-09-2015, 09:27 PM
mesan123

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

http://blog.ilw.com/gregsiskind/2015...ning-visagate/

I'm not going to comment because I think I'll get into a lot of trouble if I do so.

Spec, no one would get it wrong, people like you should enlighten us if you understand what that means... Well damage already done to us by USCIS ... So please go ahead nd explain us... Even if it is harsh truth..:)
10-09-2015, 09:52 PM
qesehmk

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

http://blog.ilw.com/gregsiskind/2015...ning-visagate/

I'm not going to comment because I think I'll get into a lot of trouble if I do so.

Why would you get into trouble Spec. Greg is calculating demand upto Jun 2011 correctly. But I have no idea where he is getting the idea that in 2016 almost 30K visas are going to be available for EB2IC !!

Either he is confusing something or we are missing something huge. Did family under utilize by 30-50K this year?

Quote:

Our own number crunching Visa Bulletin wonk has come up with a number just over 29,000 as the number of EB-2 India and EB-2 China numbers that will be available in Fiscal Year 2016
10-09-2015, 10:50 PM
Spectator

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

http://blog.ilw.com/gregsiskind/2015...ning-visagate/

I'm not going to comment because I think I'll get into a lot of trouble if I do so.

Why would you get into trouble Spec. Greg is calculating demand upto Jun 2011 correctly. But I have no idea where he is getting the idea that in 2016 almost 30K visas are going to be available for EB2IC !!

Either he doesn't know what he is talking about. Or we are missing something huge. Did family under utilize by 30-50K this year?

Quote:

Our own number crunching Visa Bulletin wonk has come up with a number just over 29,000 as the number of EB-2 India and EB-2 China numbers that will be available in Fiscal Year 2016

Q,

I'll sleep on it. I wrote a post, but I don't hold back. I don't really like to completely trash an opinion in that way. I quite like Greg and appreciate what he has done. Win or lose, it had to be done and even a loss accomplishes something significant.

You have mentioned most of the important points. Clearly you don't believe 29k for EB2-IC is remotely possible either.

29k for EB2-IC in FY2016 implies around 26k SOFAD for EB2-I, which implies 23k SO.

To reach that level, I think it would require in excess of 25k extra visas from FB assuming EB2-I have access to all the FB visas allotted to EB1, EB2, EB4 and EB5 (28.6% are allotted to EB3 and unavailable to EB2).

That would be a complete failure on CO's part in FY2015 - especially since the majority of FB use Consular Processing which is completely controlled by DOS.

When asked by USCIS to calculate the COD that EB2-I might reach in FY2016 (12 months), he stated 01JUL09. That must include his best estimate for SO, since 2.8k approvals could not possibly reach that date.

By this time, CO should have a pretty good idea of the FB use in FY2015 and therefore how many extra visas might be available to EB in FY2016. At the very least, he would know the usage up to August 11, 2015. That's stated in the September 2015 VB and he would need that information to set the September 2015 VB COD for FB. The FB COD were advanced slightly more for FB1 and FB2A than normal in the September 2015 VB, but not enough to suggest that approvals were so significantly short of the preference limit for FB.

That strongly hints that the number of FB visas available to EB in FY2016 are quite low, or I am mistaken in thinking he has any idea of the number yet. If he doesn't have any idea yet, which I think is unlikely, he can't assume any number from FB when calculating the likely date. Nor should Greg's "numbers man" without explicitly stating it.

PS:- I think his estimate of demand up to 01JUL11 for EB2-I is quite low.
10-10-2015, 05:45 AM
qesehmk

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

I don't really like to completely trash an opinion in that way. I quite like Greg and appreciate what he has done. Win or lose, it had to be done and even a loss accomplishes something significant.

I really didn't mean to trash his opinion but my words indeed came across that way. I do appreciate what he has done. We are on the same page that win-or-lose he and his plaintiffs did something immensely meaningful. I also think CO is trying to do his part.

Anyway ... so as per the numbers yes - I don't see a path to Jun 2011 for EB2I. There is one more probability - I wonder if CO is going to implement the suggestion to NOT count dependents. If implemented that has the potential to simply clear most if not all backlog in EB.
10-10-2015, 08:32 AM
Spectator

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

I really didn't mean to trash his opinion but my words indeed came across that way. I do appreciate what he has done. We are on the same page that win-or-lose he and his plaintiffs did something immensely meaningful. I also think CO is trying to do his part.

Anyway ... so as per the numbers yes - I don't see a path to Jun 2011 for EB2I. There is one more probability - I wonder if CO is going to implement the suggestion to NOT count dependents. If implemented that has the potential to simply clear most if not all backlog in EB.

Q,

I was referring to my (unpublished) analysis.

I don't think you were trashing him at all. It was quite considered.
10-10-2015, 08:42 AM
YTeleven

Quote:

Originally Posted by asaxena2

Are you still sure about your eb2 and eb 3 predictions for 2016 ?

From my side no changes to my earlier predictions both for EB2-I & EB3-I.
Here I said what we can expect in next 18 months: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...6028#post56028
10-10-2015, 09:58 AM
asaxena2

Quote:

Originally Posted by YTeleven

From my side no changes to my earlier predictions both for EB2-I & EB3-I.
Here I said what we can expect in next 18 months: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...6028#post56028

Thanks YTEleven
10-10-2015, 08:38 PM
delguy

Quote:

Originally Posted by YTeleven

From my side no changes to my earlier predictions both for EB2-I & EB3-I.
Here I said what we can expect in next 18 months: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...6028#post56028

Hi YT, When do you think June 2010 could be current? I am so frustrated by missing it twice so close :(
10-11-2015, 04:22 PM
YTeleven

Quote:

Originally Posted by delguy

Hi YT, When do you think June 2010 could be current? I am so frustrated by missing it twice so close :(

The answer is already in there in my previous posts, its FY17.
Here is more explanation to it:
Policies have changed post 25-Sep-2015. Now CO can't move dates to build inventory as he did in 2012 that's when you missed your first opportunity for filing EAD.
This is evident from how he corrected the VB on 25-Sep-2015 that is when you missed your second opportunity.
It seems CO is allowed to move the dates only for those applicants who can get their GC in next 8 to 12 months time frame.
This is the new initiative from DHS under the VISA modernization of VB, the benefit of filing the EAD earlier(8 to 12 months earlier than expected GC timeframe)
So, I believe if CO/USCIS correctly estimates then you should be able to file your EAD in Jul'16 and can safely expect your GC in 8-12 months from that filing date i.e. in FY17 quota.
Now, question is can EB2-I get that much spillover. Yes. I believe it so. We will get more clarity on this as more data pointers gets released in future.
10-11-2015, 08:48 PM
4WatItsWorth

Quote:

Originally Posted by YTeleven

From my side no changes to my earlier predictions both for EB2-I & EB3-I.
Here I said what we can expect in next 18 months: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...6028#post56028

that post talks about inventory build up etc. Not sure how true that is anymore? My PD is 30Oct2009 EB2-I. In light of new 2-date process, not sure when I should expect to get current to file AoS and eventually get GC. What is your estimate for this date?

Tired of being on stangnant immi life now.
10-12-2015, 11:14 AM
delguy

Thanks YT, I will be happy with just getting EAD than the actual GC. Waiting with EAD in hand is less of pain than doing that on H1.

Quote:

Originally Posted by YTeleven

The answer is already in there in my previous posts, its FY17.
Here is more explanation to it:
Policies have changed post 25-Sep-2015. Now CO can't move dates to build inventory as he did in 2012 that's when you missed your first opportunity for filing EAD.
This is evident from how he corrected the VB on 25-Sep-2015 that is when you missed your second opportunity.
It seems CO is allowed to move the dates only for those applicants who can get their GC in next 8 to 12 months time frame.
This is the new initiative from DHS under the VISA modernization of VB, the benefit of filing the EAD earlier(8 to 12 months earlier than expected GC timeframe)
So, I believe if CO/USCIS correctly estimates then you should be able to file your EAD in Jul'16 and can safely expect your GC in 8-12 months from that filing date i.e. in FY17 quota.
Now, question is can EB2-I get that much spillover. Yes. I believe it so. We will get more clarity on this as more data pointers gets released in future.
10-12-2015, 12:45 PM
harapatha

Quote:

Originally Posted by YTeleven

The answer is already in there in my previous posts, its FY17.
Here is more explanation to it:
Policies have changed post 25-Sep-2015. Now CO can't move dates to build inventory as he did in 2012 that's when you missed your first opportunity for filing EAD.
This is evident from how he corrected the VB on 25-Sep-2015 that is when you missed your second opportunity.
It seems CO is allowed to move the dates only for those applicants who can get their GC in next 8 to 12 months time frame.
This is the new initiative from DHS under the VISA modernization of VB, the benefit of filing the EAD earlier(8 to 12 months earlier than expected GC timeframe)
So, I believe if CO/USCIS correctly estimates then you should be able to file your EAD in Jul'16 and can safely expect your GC in 8-12 months from that filing date i.e. in FY17 quota.
Now, question is can EB2-I get that much spillover. Yes. I believe it so. We will get more clarity on this as more data pointers gets released in future.

Thanks YT. I am EB3I Jul 09. Hopefully, I can file for AOS during CY 16 based on your forecast. Glad to know that you are still sticking to your forecast, even after the recent fiasco..
10-12-2015, 08:36 PM
GCwaiting

Thanks a lot YT.

I am new to this forum. Your explanation and analysis of EB3 I was really good.
My date is 23 Mar 2005 (EB3 I).
Do you still think I should be current in May 2016 ?
10-14-2015, 10:58 AM
srimurthy

From OH Law Firm.... Looks like we are going to get USCIS to post dates from Nov. What Spec highlighted earlier...

**************
10/14/2015: Effective November 2015, USCIS Will Post Separate I-485 Filing Availability Date, Separate from State Department Visa Bulletin
•USCIS announces that beginning with the November 2015 Department of State (DOS) Visa Bulletin, if USCIS determines that there are more immigrant visas available for a fiscal year than there are known applicants for such visas, USCIS will state on www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo that applicants may use the Dates for Filing Visa Applications chart. Unless otherwise stated on our website, the Application Final Action Date chart will be used to determine when individuals may file their adjustment of status applications. USCIS anticipates making this determination each month and posting the relevant chart on our website within one week of DOS' publication of the Visa Bulletin. USCIS November 2015 Chart has yet to be released.
•What does it mean? When it comes to filing of I-485 applications based on the "Filing Available" track cut-off date in each Visa Bulletin, I-485 should not rely on the monthly Visa Bulletin. They should rely on the USCIS separate posting of the USCIS chart for availability of filing track acceptance cut-off dates for the purpose of the USCIS each month. The dates can be either same or different from the Visa Bulletin Filing Acceptance chart.
•
*********

Quote:

Originally Posted by GCwaiting

Thanks a lot YT.

I am new to this forum. Your explanation and analysis of EB3 I was really good.
My date is 23 Mar 2005 (EB3 I).
Do you still think I should be current in May 2016 ?
10-14-2015, 11:01 AM
Spectator
Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

I just noticed a small change to the USCIS Filing dates page http://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo

.......

USCIS have now published a further statement under NEWS on their website http://www.uscis.gov/news/updated-in...-visa-bulletin
Quote:
Updated Instruction for Using the DOS Visa Bulletin

Beginning with the November 2015 Department of State (DOS) Visa Bulletin, if USCIS determines that there are more immigrant visas available for a fiscal year than there are known applicants for such visas, we will state on www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo that applicants may use the Dates for Filing Visa Applications chart. Unless otherwise stated on our website, the Application Final Action Date chart will be used to determine when individuals may file their adjustment of status applications.

We anticipate making this determination each month and posting the relevant chart on our website within one week of DOS’ publication of the Visa Bulletin.

About the Visa Bulletin

DOS publishes current immigrant visa availability information in a monthly Visa Bulletin. The Visa Bulletin indicates when statutorily limited visas are available to prospective immigrants based on their individual priority date.

The priority date is generally the date when the applicant’s relative or employer properly filed the immigrant visa petition on the applicant’s behalf with USCIS. If a labor certification is required to be filed with the applicant’s immigrant visa petition, then the priority date is when the labor certification application was accepted for processing by Department of Labor.
Availability of an immigrant visa means eligible applicants are able to take one of the final steps in the process of becoming U.S. permanent residents.

Learn more about adjustment of status and the Visa Bulletin on our website.

Last Reviewed/Updated: 10/14/2015
USCIS have still not updated their page to reflect the November VB.
10-14-2015, 11:43 AM
srimurthy

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

Unless otherwise stated on our website, the Application Final Action Date chart will be used to determine when individuals may file their adjustment of status applications..

Does the above statement mean incase they don't publish that they will consider the "Action Date Chart" for filing which can mean rollback or unavailable for India and China in EB2 / EB3? Is it introducing more complexity than making it simpler to ensure they can mess up anyway they want?
10-14-2015, 11:57 AM
Spectator

Quote:

Originally Posted by srimurthy

Does the above statement mean in case they don't publish that they will consider the "Action Date Chart" for filing which can mean rollback or unavailable for India and China in EB2 / EB3? Is it introducing more complexity than making it simpler to ensure they can mess up anyway they want?

It means that USCIS have two choices (and only two choices).

a) The Filing Dates published in the VB are for CP cases and relate to sending documentation to NVC.

USCIS can choose to also use the Filing Dates Chart in the VB to accept the AOS cases i.e allow an I-485 to be filed. They will do so IF:

Quote:

USCIS determines that there are more immigrant visas available for a fiscal year than there are known applicants for such visas

If that is the case, they will show the same Filing Chart as the VB on their website at http://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo

Otherwise,

b) USCIS can determine the Final Action Chart in the VB will also apply for the ability to file an I-485.

These are the only two choices available to USCIS. USCIS cannot independently publish a different Filing Date Chart on their website from that published in the VB.

This is no different to the situation when the original October VB was published. The only subtle difference, which may be noteworthy, is that USCIS have used the phrase

Quote:

more immigrant visas available for a fiscal year than there are known applicants for such visas

rather than within the next 8-12 months.
10-14-2015, 12:13 PM
CleanSock

But how can they determine whether more visas are available this fiscal year so early in the year? They couldn't do it so far and DoS had to resort to some calculation to determine it only in the 4th quarter. USCIS saying this so early on in the year doesn't smell right to me.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

It means that USCIS have two choices (and only two choices).

a) The Filing Dates published in the VB are for CP cases and relate to sending documentation to NVC.

USCIS can choose to also use the Filing Dates Chart in the VB to accept the AOS cases i.e allow an I-485 to be filed. They will do so IF:

If that is the case, they will show the same Filing Chart as the VB on their website at http://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo

Otherwise,

b) USCIS can determine the Final Action Chart in the VB will also apply for the ability to file an I-485.

These are the only two choices available to USCIS. USCIS cannot independently publish a different Filing Date Chart on their website from that published in the VB.

This is no different to the situation when the original October VB was published. The only subtle difference, which may be noteworthy, is that USCIS have used the phrase

rather than within the next 8-12 months.

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