EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

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Originally Posted by geeaarpee

I agree. One thing that doesn't make sense is there is a 4-6 months wait (processing) time for 485 applications and I don't know how USCIS finds time to issue RFE on a case that is not current!

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In the specific example you quoted, the OP said that their EB2-I-140 had recently been approved.

It could be, that when the A-file was updated, the IO noticed there was no written request to interfile the new EB2 I-140 with the existing I-485 and the RFE was issued to ask the person whether they wished to do so (when the PD becomes Current).

More generally, USCIS are quite aware that EB2-I dates are likely to move forward in the near future.

While pro-activity is not a term I generally associate with USCIS, it is entirely possible that they are pulling files likely to become Current and pre-processing them to the point of approval (including issuing any necessary RFE), rather than waiting for them to become actually Current to begin that process.

The IBIS checks have to be not more than 6 months old at the time of approval, so these have to be updated at some point, otherwise they will have no approvable cases.

USCIS work in mysterious ways - best just to accept that fact.

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Originally Posted by vizcard

it depends

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Originally Posted by Spectator

In the specific example you quoted, the OP said that their EB2-I-140 had recently been approved.

It could be, that when the A-file was updated, the IO noticed there was no written request to interfile the new EB2 I-140 with the existing I-485 and the RFE was issued to ask the person whether they wished to do so (when the PD becomes Current).

More generally, USCIS are quite aware that EB2-I dates are likely to move forward in the near future.

While pro-activity is not a term I generally associate with USCIS, it is entirely possible that they are pulling files likely to become Current and pre-processing them to the point of approval (including issuing any necessary RFE), rather than waiting for them to become actually Current to begin that process.

The IBIS checks have to be not more than 6 months old at the time of approval, so these have to be updated at some point, otherwise they will have no approvable cases.

USCIS work in mysterious ways - best just to accept that fact.

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Perfect explanation. Again proactiveness sometime vary by the personnel handling the case. In this case, he may have acted proactively.

First of all, great site guys. Keep up the good work.
Now the question: EB-2I with PD June 19, 2008, what are the chances for filing I-485 this year? I have never been able to file so far due to being in EB-3I.
I know it could be on the border for FY 2013, but I am hoping to at least get EAD/AP and not too worried about GC right now. If I miss in FY 2013, is there a chance they will do pipeline building again early FY 2014?

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Originally Posted by civilengineer

First of all, great site guys. Keep up the good work.
Now the question: EB-2I with PD June 19, 2008, what are the chances for filing I-485 this year? I have never been able to file so far due to being in EB-3I.
I know it could be on the border for FY 2013, but I am hoping to at least get EAD/AP and not too worried about GC right now. If I miss in FY 2013, is there a chance they will do pipeline building again early FY 2014?

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You may slide in to file 485 this year. Keep your docs ready including affidavits, etc.

No chance they'll build pipeline (without CIR) in 2014.

Just some random thoughts about various topics discussed recently -

1. Will EB2I retrogress in May ? CO had mentioned this in February . What are the chances of that happening now?

2. I looked at some Trackitt numbers for EB2 ROW. Except for FY 2009 all past year approvals for the same time period- oct to april have been in the 200-300 range and lower than FY 2013. For FY 2009 it was 444 and for the year ended at 774. The actual allocation that year was ~33000.

3. Just playing devils advocate - what if the last predictions provided by CO in feb were made taking into account the extra FB visas. If we consider that then some of our assumptions about SOFAD may be completely wrong. What if theres no need for EB5 cutoff cause of 11000 allocation rather than 9900. Its rather surprising that CO did not know that USCIS was going to provide info abt extra FB visas the next day.

thoughts comment?

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Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000

1. Will EB2I retrogress in May ? CO had mentioned this in February . What are the chances of that happening now?

3. Just playing devils advocate - what if the last predictions provided by CO in feb were made taking into account the extra FB visas. If we consider that then some of our assumptions about SOFAD may be completely wrong. What if theres no need for EB5 cutoff cause of 11000 allocation rather than 9900. Its rather surprising that CO did not know that USCIS was going to provide info abt extra FB visas the next day.

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This year was special for EB2-ROW in that there was a wave of applications that needed to be approved due to retrogression last year. Also trackitt as a site wasn't that active back then, so not sure about the accuracy of trackitt data.
Hope the SOFAD numbers predicted are not too far off.
CO did "fix" the demand data after the release of VB. So, I hope he wasn't aware of the FB numbers when the VB was released.
EB5 has some issues related to tenants' rent or something, that's delaying approvals. Not very sure about that.

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Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000

Just some random thoughts about various topics discussed recently -

1. Will EB2I retrogress in May ? CO had mentioned this in February . What are the chances of that happening now?

2. I looked at some Trackitt numbers for EB2 ROW. Except for FY 2009 all past year approvals for the same time period- oct to april have been in the 200-300 range and lower than FY 2013. For FY 2009 it was 444 and for the year ended at 774. The actual allocation that year was ~33000.

3. Just playing devils advocate - what if the last predictions provided by CO in feb were made taking into account the extra FB visas. If we consider that then some of our assumptions about SOFAD may be completely wrong. What if theres no need for EB5 cutoff cause of 11000 allocation rather than 9900. Its rather surprising that CO did not know that USCIS was going to provide info abt extra FB visas the next day.

thoughts comment?

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1. Unlikely. But even if he does, it'll move ahead in July.
2. ~33k is the norm for EB2ROW. However, this year they are dealing with the backlog due to the retrogression from last year.
3. I don't think he knew about the FB extras. The indicator is the reissue of the demand data 2-3 days after the VB for that month with the additional visas.

I know it's a little nervewracking due to all the what-ifs and lack of info. But seriously just wait for a couple more months. Everyone will have much better line of sight.

Demand Data for May bulletin out!

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

EB2C 6125
EB2I 42,625

Changes for EB2-I

Jan 1st 2005 --> +50
Jan 1st 2006 --> +125 (Net +75)
Jan 1st 2007 --> +200 (Net +75)
Jan 1st 2008 --> +350 (Net +150)
Jan 1st 2009 --> +450 (Net +100)
Jan 1st 2010 --> +600 (Net + 150)

No major change expected in this bulletin.. Moving on to the next bulletin..

Spec/ Q -
was there a month by month analysis of 2008 receipts vs approvals on trackitt? I expect the 2008 demand (in the demand data) to be skewed to the later half of the year due to the recession and approvals that already took place (I remember seeing a lot of people with RDs up to Jan 15, 2012 got approved). In other words, its not a flat 1500 per month. Its a curve increasing over time in 2008. Thoughts?

This will drive how far the dates move in to 2008.

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Originally Posted by vizcard

Spec/ Q -
was there a month by month analysis of 2008 receipts vs approvals on trackitt? I expect the 2008 demand (in the demand data) to be skewed to the later half of the year due to the recession and approvals that already took place (I remember seeing a lot of people with RDs up to Jan 15, 2012 got approved). In other words, its not a flat 1500 per month. Its a curve increasing over time in 2008. Thoughts?

This will drive how far the dates move in to 2008.

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vizcard,

Is this the sort of analysis you were after?

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Originally Posted by vizcard

Spec/ Q -
was there a month by month analysis of 2008 receipts vs approvals on trackitt? I expect the 2008 demand (in the demand data) to be skewed to the later half of the year due to the recession and approvals that already took place (I remember seeing a lot of people with RDs up to Jan 15, 2012 got approved). In other words, its not a flat 1500 per month. Its a curve increasing over time in 2008. Thoughts?

This will drive how far the dates move in to 2008.

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My predictions on where dates will reach based on available SOFAD

Attachment 392

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Originally Posted by Spectator

vizcard,

Is this the sort of analysis you were after?

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I was looking for monthly receipts/ approvals by Receipt Date Month as opposed to VB month. But nevermind. I found that on Trackitt.

Is a typo in the EB3 PH . I think and hope that the 150 should be at EB3ROW :)
If not that means that more than 4000 new application have been filed for EB3ROW before July 2007. :(

The EB-3-ROW numbers must be wrong. You just don;t see such a huge jump without seeing the same jump in The EB-3-M numbers.

How are the number of cases after Sep 2004 increasing with every DD?
It's hard to imagine that these are old cases(few hundreds every month) with 485 filed last year that are being pre-adjucated now.
Is it possible that CO is including the porting numbers as well? (based on interfiling requests received). I understand that interfiling can't be done when cases are not current, but recieving an interfiling
request will help CO with porting demand.

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Originally Posted by ChampU

Changes for EB2-I

Jan 1st 2005 --> +50
Jan 1st 2006 --> +125 (Net +75)
Jan 1st 2007 --> +200 (Net +75)
Jan 1st 2008 --> +350 (Net +150)
Jan 1st 2009 --> +450 (Net +100)
Jan 1st 2010 --> +600 (Net + 150)

No major change expected in this bulletin.. Moving on to the next bulletin..

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Originally Posted by justvisiting

The EB-3-ROW numbers must be wrong. You just don;t see such a huge jump without seeing the same jump in The EB-3-M numbers.

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justvisiting,

I don't understand them either. A figure of 1,825 rather than 7,825 would have made sense.

The only possible reason would be a huge number of CP cases beyond the current COD suddenly becoming Documentarily Qualified. I don't really believe that.

The EB3-Philippines figures ARE just plain incorrect. Prior to Jan 1, 2007 is 3,700. The number prior to Jan 1 , 2012 is shown as 150, which is impossible.

I do wish they would take a little more care checking the figures before publishing them.

Spec,

It looks like EB3-P numbers got mixed up with EB3-all other countries.

MATT

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Originally Posted by Spectator

justvisiting,

I don't understand them either. A figure of 1,825 rather than 7,825 would have made sense.

The only possible reason would be a huge number of CP cases beyond the current COD suddenly becoming Documentarily Qualified. I don't really believe that.

The EB3-Philippines figures ARE just plain incorrect. Prior to Jan 1, 2007 is 3,700. The number prior to Jan 1 , 2012 is shown as 150, which is impossible.

I do wish they would take a little more care checking the figures before publishing them.

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How can demand data increase in EB2I, all belong to preadjudicated cases. So that means even after one year, pre-2005 cases are getting preadjudicated in the tune of 50 cases per month. In past 5 months demand data has increased by 50, 0, 25, 75 and 50 for pre-2005 cases.

Trackitt data does not confirm this information that more than a year ported-pending I-485 cases have been approved very recently. It may be possible that demand data includes current I-485 also for pre-Oct 2004. Then it is a worrying sign that cutoff date may retrogress further.

If these pre-2005 are not all pre-adjudicated numbers then it means same is also not true for pre-2008 demand data numbers.

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Originally Posted by MATT2012

Spec,

It looks like EB3-P numbers got mixed up with EB3-all other countries.

MATT

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Yup, I agree. If you switch EB3-P and EB3-ROW for Jan 2012 row, you get close to reality. I am expecting a strong movement forward for EB3-ROW in upcoming bulletin.

Kd2008,
In case CO actually used these published numbers, what do you thing the cut off date for EB3 ROW will be? My PD is 07/15 and I hope I will be current.
Thanks.

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Originally Posted by kd2008

Yup, I agree. If you switch EB3-P and EB3-ROW for Jan 2012 row, you get close to reality. I am expecting a strong movement forward for EB3-ROW in upcoming bulletin.

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kd,

I am also expecting considerable movement for EB3-ROW in the forthcoming VB.

I'm not convinced the number swap between EB3-ROW and EB3-P works entirely.

For EB3-ROW to have reduced to 150 would mean that they used 3,400 from the Demand last month. That's more than double normal usage, which isn't borne out by Trackitt EB3-ROW approval numbers.

EB3-P numbers post 2006 would increase 1,825 or about 80% compared to the previous month. Given the high CP % for EB3-P that's not impossible, but still seems unlikely at this stage, given how slowly they are currently moving.

KD/Spec,
Let me explain what I meant, there were 6275 pending EB3-P cases as per April Demand data. 225 visa's issued. So the total demand will be 6050.In the May demand data for EB3-other countries there is a demand of 7825. 7825 - 6050 = 1775. So 1775 is the possible demand for EB3-ROW.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

kd,

I am also expecting considerable movement for EB3-ROW in the forthcoming VB.

I'm not convinced the number swap between EB3-ROW and EB3-P works entirely.

For EB3-ROW to have reduced to 150 would mean that they used 3,400 from the Demand last month. That's more than double normal usage, which isn't borne out by Trackitt EB3-ROW approval numbers.

EB3-P numbers post 2006 would increase 1,825 or about 80% compared to the previous month. Given the high CP % for EB3-P that's not impossible, but still seems unlikely at this stage, given how slowly they are currently moving.

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Originally Posted by MATT2012

KD/Spec,
Let me explain what I meant, there were 6275 pending EB3-P cases as per April Demand data. 225 visa's issued. So the total demand will be 6050.In the May demand data for EB3-other countries there is a demand of 7825. 7825 - 6050 = 1775. So 1775 is the possible demand for EB3-ROW.

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Matt,

Thank you for the explanation.

I agree that EB3-P should be about 6k and EB2-All Other Countries should be about 2k.

Thinking about it further in the way you have framed it, I think the 150 was copied from EB3-M by mistake and suspect that (since the PDF was created from Excel 2007) that the number for EB3-All Other Countries may be derived from a formula

i.e. EB3-All Other Countries = EB3(Total) minus EB3-C minus EB3-I minus EB3-M minus EB3-P

So the mistaken low figure in EB3-P caused EB3-All Other Countries to increase.

That assumes that the EB3(Total) figure of 51,200 is correct.

If EB3-P had no increase in 2007 cases, it would be 6,000 and that would make EB3-All Other Countries 1,975.

I think that is exactly what you are saying as well, albeit using very slightly different numbers. In any case, they are close enough to make no difference.

That brings another question, if our analysis is correct, nobody verifies the demand data before publishing?!!

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Matt,

Thank you for the explanation.

I agree that EB3-P should be about 6k and EB2-All Other Countries should be about 2k.

Thinking about it further in the way you have framed it, I think the 150 was copied from EB3-M by mistake and suspect that (since the PDF was created from Excel 2007) that the number for EB3-All Other Countries is actually a formula

i.e. EB3-All Other Countries = EB3(Total) minus EB3-C minus EB3-I minus EB3-M minus EB3-P

So the mistaken low figure in EB3-P caused EB3-All Other Countries to increase.

That assumes that the EB3(Total) figure of 51,200 is correct.

If EB3-P had no increase in 2007 cases, it would be 6,000 and that would make EB3-All Other Countries 1,975.

I think that is exactly what you are saying as well, albeit using very slightly different numbers. In any case, they are close enough to make no difference.

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