EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

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Originally Posted by natvyas

Spec - Is there any data out there which suggests that EB1 is equal to or more than last year? In essence what I'm asking is if you are holding your predictions/calculations on page 1?

Regards
Nat

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Nat,

One of the difficulties is that there is a complete absence of any data about EB1, other than Trackitt.

As I said in a post earlier today, I am finding it very difficult to say exactly what EB1 is doing.

Depending on how the calculation is done, I would put the projected number in the 34-39k range. The difference has a big impact.

My page one figures are based on a figure of 35k for EB1 and EB2-WW using their full allocation, but no more.

In general, my prediction would be getting slightly worse, rather than better, but I would like to see a couple more months data.

I would describe my thoughts as "quite fluid" at the moment. :)

I just hope people realize that. I did think the EB2-WW subject was worth discussing and it has generated a good conversation.

Roll on the next Demand Data and VB.

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Originally Posted by MATT2012

My thought, the controller is still within the quarterly limits or slightly exceeded. There is a possibility that more(% wise) EB2ROW registered in trackitt, due to retrogression last year. There is no way to quantify the weightage of that. Does that make sense?

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I know of many people from EB2-ROW who got engaged with trackitt last year based on 1)Retrogression and 2)HR 3012.

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Originally Posted by gc_soon

vizcard,
In your guess when you say "won't get any FA from EB2ROW" - do you consider EB2ROW quota before FB spillover or adjusted figure with FB spillover?

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Originally Posted by Spectator

vizcard,

To be fair, at the moment, that is what I am expecting as well, though it is subject to change.

gc_soon,

I can't speak for vizcard, but I am basing that on the revised allocation to EB2-WW of 38.9k. If they only had the normal 34.4k, they would exceed it comfortably.

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Spec -You are correct. I was assuming regular quota + FB extra.

At this point, we are getting into wait and watch mode. I would be happy to see atleast some guidance as part of the May visa bulletin, EB2-I is almost one year into retrogression.

So based on regular quota plus fb extra, what is the expected PD movement by fy2013?

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Originally Posted by Vkkpnm

So based on regular quota plus fb extra, what is the expected PD movement by fy2013?

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Go to page 1 where Q, Spec and others have (and update) their projections.

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Originally Posted by vizcard

Go to page 1 where Q, Spec and others have (and update) their projections.

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So the prediction on page 1 still holds good after seeing no spillover from EB2 WW, and rather they may take some of EB1 spillover, and all other data that came up thereafter?

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Originally Posted by Spectator

This year to date = 9 months worth of approvals in 6 months.

6 months of year remains.

9 + 6 = 15

Overall, over 2 FY there are still 24 months of approvals in 24 months, just split asymmetrically.

The numbers pending are rolling numbers. As the old pending cases are approved, new ones take their place. There is no question of having zero pending cases, because that would require zero processing time.

USCIS have just processed the (artificially) higher number of pending cases that built up at the end of FY2012 and the beginning of FY2013 in much the same way as they processed large numbers of EB2-I cases last year.

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Spectator,

I still dont get it. May be because I dont believe the 'realization' of demand will sustained as high as seen till date. Or may be I am hung up on your predictions that July 2009 PD wont be reached even in FY 2015 and hence unable to comprehend anything further :).

As always, thanks for all the numbers and detailed explainations.

Most of us have become more conservative as we approached half year point. There will be changes in predictions as we get more data. At this point, I do not think that EB1 Spillover is required for EB2WW to stay current.

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Originally Posted by Vkkpnm

So the prediction on page 1 still holds good after seeing no spillover from EB2 WW, and rather they may take some of EB1 spillover, and all other data that came up thereafter?

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Just trying to add an example to specs explanation.
Let us assume that every month EB2WW demand is 10. So the demand for 3 months from 2012 fiscal(July, August, September) is 10+10+ 10 = 30. For the new fiscal there are 12 months(Ocotber to September) , 12 x 10= 120. So the total demand for this fiscal is 30+120= 150, considering the retrogression last year.

First six months of this fiscal will have 30+ 60 = 90, 30 from last fiscal and 60 form this fiscal. 90 divided by 9 months = 10, which is the monthly demand and 10 multiplied into 15 will give 150, which is the demand for this fiscal. The assumption is it took six months of this fiscal to absorb 3 months of retrogression.

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Originally Posted by suninphx

Spectator,

I still dont get it. May be because I dont believe the 'realization' of demand will sustained as high as seen till date. Or may be I am hung up on your predictions of that July 2009 PD wont be reached even in FY 2015 and not able to comprehend anything further :).

As always, thanks for all the numbers and detailed explainations.

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We see the prediction of Spec updated on first page as Feb/March 2008. Is it min,max for average date for EB2I?

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Originally Posted by mailmvr

We see the prediction of Spec updated on first page as Feb/March 2008. Is it min,max for average date for EB2I?

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I believe, and Spec - keep me honest, that is "min".

Reasoning is -
1. Everyone has been very conservative in the consumption assumptions. There is potential upside here.
2. Not everyone gets approved and hence dates move further in to the future.

I'd say March 2008 to June 2008 is realistic and up to Sept 2008 is stretch.

But, if the monthly quota is only allotted for Eb2WW in each of month of the financial year 2013, then the all the outstanding cases of Jul/August/September -2012 got cleared in 1st month of FY2013 itself as it has been current afterwards and hence it would be normal demand only in later months and hence a good SO is expected from EB2WW.

Can this happen?

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Originally Posted by MATT2012

Just trying to add an example to specs explanation.
Let us assume that every month EB2WW demand is 10. So the demand for 3 months from 2012 fiscal(July, August, September) is 10+10+ 10 = 30. For the new fiscal there are 12 months(Ocotber to September) , 12 x 10= 120. So the total demand for this fiscal is 30+120= 150, considering the retrogression last year.

First six months of this fiscal will have 30+ 60 = 90, 30 from last fiscal and 60 form this fiscal. 90 divided by 9 months = 10, which is the monthly demand and 10 multiplied into 15 will give 150, which is the demand for this fiscal. The assumption is it took six months of this fiscal to absorb 3 months of retrogression.

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Originally Posted by vizcard

I believe, and Spec - keep me honest, that is "min".

Reasoning is -
1. Everyone has been very conservative in the consumption assumptions. There is potential upside here.
2. Not everyone gets approved and hence dates move further in to the future.

I'd say March 2008 to June 2008 is realistic and up to Sept 2008 is stretch.

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vizcard,

1. That is a mid point, based on there being potential upsides and downsides. Admittedly it does reflect a fairly conservative position.
2. I have assumed that not everyone gets approved.

At the moment, I think June 2008 might result from my high end figure. My low end figure is extremely unlikely, but not impossible.

March 2013 EB2 ROW approvals had roughly 20% representation of applications filed by October 2012. February 2013 approvals had roughly 33% representation of applications filed by October 2012. Hope I answered your question.

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Originally Posted by bvsamrat

But, if the monthly quota is only allotted for Eb2WW in each of month of the financial year 2013, then the all the outstanding cases of Jul/August/September -2012 got cleared in 1st month of FY2013 itself as it has been current afterwards and hence it would be normal demand only in later months and hence a good SO is expected from EB2WW.

Can this happen?

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For many people, they could only submit their I-485 in November 2012 when EB2-WW became Current again. It then took several months to adjudicate those cases.

Many people also seemed to anticipate retrogression (or acted quickly when the VB was published) and submitted their applications in June 2012. However, any with a 2012 PD had to wait until November 2012 at the earliest for them to be approved. It is likely that not all cases were even pre-adjudicated by that time.

All October 2012 approvals had to have a PD of 2011 or earlier.

Approvals for cases affected by retrogression have been spread over several months - in fact it was a legal impossibility to clear them in October 2012.

CO appears to have used under-use in other Categories to enable higher than normal EB2-WW approvals in the first two quarters. This seems to have enabled the approval of the increased backlog from retrogression plus the normal demand over the first six months of the year. Approvals dropped in December 2012, which suggests CO did not have sufficient visas available in Q1 to approve all the cases, and / or that insufficient cases submitted in November 2012 were ready to adjudicate.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Approvals dropped in December 2012, which suggests CO did not have sufficient visas available in Q1 to approve all the cases, and / or that insufficient cases submitted in November 2012 were ready to adjudicate.

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I would suggest the second is true. The absolute minimum an I-485 can take is probably one month, considering that on avergae biometric appointments are being given out with a one month wait.

As an aside, USCIS hired more adjudicators earlier this FY expecting a lot of DACA applicants. It turned out that there haven;t been nearly as many applicants as expected. This may account for the faster-than-normal prcoessing times. It now seems they shipped a bunch of pending DACA applications from California and Vermont to Texas/Nebraska, so we should expect EB I-485 processing times to go back to a more norma 4-6 months rather than the 2-4 seen in Jan/Feb.

Eb2i pd - 12/1/2012 ???

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Originally Posted by jrkpsp

Eb2i pd - 12/1/2012 ???

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it depends

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Originally Posted by vizcard

it depends

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:-) :-) :-).

This seems to be interesting - http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...page/last_page

His PD is Nov'04 EB2-I. Got an RFE now on his I-485 when the dates are not current. Does it mean they are reviewing future cases and we may see some movement for EB2-I in the next (May) bulletin?

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Originally Posted by geeaarpee

This seems to be interesting - http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...page/last_page

His PD is Nov'04 EB2-I. Got an RFE now on his I-485 when the dates are not current. Does it mean they are reviewing future cases and we may see some movement for EB2-I in the next (May) bulletin?

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May be or may not be. RFE can be issued any any stage of application review including pre-adjudication.

I agree. One thing that doesn't make sense is there is a 4-6 months wait (processing) time for 485 applications that are current and I don't know how USCIS finds time to issue RFE on a case that is not current!

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Originally Posted by geeaarpee

I agree. One thing that doesn't make sense is there is a 4-6 months wait (processing) time for 485 applications and I don't know how USCIS finds time to issue RFE on a case that is not current!

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I dont think its really 4-6 months like they publish. Last year they did quite a few within 2-3 months.