EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Dec 2007 - the current retrogression is purely technical. Fundamentally if the dates move to Q1 2008 - then that's where they will stay after Sep 2013.
So you don't have to worrry about retrogression. Retro should happen if we see dates in later part of 2008.

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Q,

Perhaps I am being dense, or I don't fully understand what you are saying. Perhaps you can expand on your argument.

As I see it, retrogression to date in FY2013 is a function of CO only using the initial allocation available to EB2-I. That has allowed between 250-285 visas to be allocated to EB2-I each month to date.

Since there have been sufficient cases with a PD before September 2004 to use the numbers available, the Cut Off Date has remained at 01SEP04.

Cut Off Dates will accelerate rapidly when spillover is released, hopefully into 2008.

Won't the same initial conditions be true when FY2014 starts in October 2013?

CO will revert to only using the initial allocation of 2,803 visas, or 252 per month.

Even leaving new porting demand aside, there will be more applicants ready for approval, whose cases were not picked up when they became Current at the end of FY2013 or have replied to a RFE issued towards the end of FY2013, than visas available.

To only use 252 per month, the Cut Off Date will have to retrogress substantially from whatever it reaches at the end of FY2013. How far will depend on porting demand from earlier PD years.

The only way I see the Cut Off Date can be sustained in 2008 is if potential spillover numbers for FY2014 are applied from October 2013 itself. I don't think anyone believes that will happen.

I am confused.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Yes .... but there is no way they will move forward in august and then backward in sep. If at all they will move back in October.

And in this particular situation - if the dates move upto Q1 2008 - I don't think they will retro at all.

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Q,

I think part of the confusion lies in that dec2007 is using the date when the VB is published, not when it becomes effective. So, when dec2007 talks about August, they actually mean the September VB and September refers to the October VB.

dec2007, please correct me if I am wrong.

Spec - you need to consider the source of the numbers from 2004. They are no longer original EB2. They are all portings now. And of course that is not a perennial source.
But granted - your logic is that then instead of 2004 - it should move to 2005.

If so - I would agree .. but then that's what I call not based on fundamentals and holding dates back purely on technicality of 2800 quota. The reality is EB2I consistently receives over 10K visas (even in a bad year) and so holding dates so back in history only serves to bring people's morale down. I think VO is insensitive stupid and callous in doing so. Callous because then they are not doing quarterly spillovers as required by law. With those quarterly spillovers - EB2I dates would not linger so back.

Anyway .. but that could be a philosophical difference between us. I guess I get source of your confusion - that you are assuming EB3 porting (prior to X date) to be greater than EB2 monthly quota which then holds the dates back. As I said - I do not think that source is granted nor I assume that CO will not yield anything at all at end of each quarter which then requires for him not to retro in October - to the degree that you think he will.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bieber

Do you know if that's a prediction or they heard from CO (I remember some of them communicating with CO in the past)

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No, they didn't mention CO, they were in the middle of those 20K additional case discussion.

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Originally Posted by vizcard

Dont get my hopes up !!! :)

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Originally Posted by willywonka

Kanmani, re:Eb2I catching up with Eb2C, you got my hopes up too :-)
It will be a miracle if the tortoise does catchup with the hare in the real world.

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Come-on guys! We have seen much more blood and battle than this. Initially we thought 18K FB is ours, then 13K FB + 13 K regular, then 13K alone, now just PD could barely cross 2007 !!!!

We are capable of more than this. That was just a copy & paste to let you guys know what they discuss about COD movement.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Spec - you need to consider the source of the numbers from 2004. They are no longer original EB2. They are all portings now. And of course that is not a perennial source.
But granted - your logic is that then instead of 2004 - it should move to 2005.

If so - I would agree .. but then that's what I call not based on fundamentals and holding dates back purely on technicality of 2800 quota. The reality is EB2I consistently receives over 10K visas (even in a bad year) and so holding dates so back in history only serves to bring people's morale down. I think VO is insensitive stupid and callous in doing so. Callous because then they are not doing quarterly spillovers as required by law. With those quarterly spillovers - EB2I dates would not linger so back.

Anyway .. but that could be a philosophical difference between us. I guess I get source of your confusion - that you are assuming EB3 porting (prior to X date) to be greater than EB2 monthly quota which then holds the dates back. As I said - I do not think that source is granted nor I assume that CO will not yield anything at all at end of each quarter which then requires for him not to retro in October - to the degree that you think he will.

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Q,

Thanks.

I understand where you are coming from now.

I mentioned it would likely retrogress because clearly that is important to Dec2007 and could adversely affect when they receive an approval by nearly a year.

Philosophically, I understand where you are coming from. I don't think we will ever see a FY2012 pattern again. Perhaps some gentle, safe quarterly spillover.

This FY, even that was not possible, because EB2-WW needed any spare visas purely to allow them to catch up the backlog created last year.

Spec,

It's like quantum physics ... all possibilities exist. The question is which one of them will materialize. I will bet on dates not retrogressing.

p.s. - I always enjoy your posts Spec. I think you know that .... but reiteration can't hurt!

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Q,

Thanks.

I understand where you are coming from now.

I mentioned it would likely retrogress because clearly that is important to Dec2007 and could adversely affect when they receive an approval by nearly a year.

Philosophically, I understand where you are coming from. I don't think we will ever see a FY2012 pattern again. Perhaps some gentle, safe quarterly spillover.

This FY, even that was not possible, because EB2-WW needed any spare visas purely to allow them to catch up the backlog created last year.

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I ditto that Spec, this year has been exceptionally bad for EB2I so far. Seems like CO was predetermined to hold back EB2I dates to payback for the blunder that he made in 2012.

I hope things start to turn around from the July VB onwards and the dates don't retro that much starting Oct.

My PD of Aug 2007 continues to wait to see the daylight...hope that will happen soon!

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Q,

I think part of the confusion lies in that dec2007 is using the date when the VB is published, not when it becomes effective. So, when dec2007 talks about August, they actually mean the September VB and September refers to the October VB.

dec2007, please correct me if I am wrong.

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Spec,

This is what I'm assuming. Below PD date movements are just randomly picked to just state my question.

Bulletin that will be released in July 1st week (effective August 1st) : August 1, 2007
Bulletin that will be released in August 1st week ( effective Sep 1st) : Jan 1, 2008
Bulletin that will be released in September 1st week ( effective Oct 1st) : June 2006 or "U"

Now in above scenario, since my PD is Dec 31, 2007. I will have only one month (Sep 1st - Sep 30th) to be greened. Correct? Otherwise I have to wait almost until next SO season aka July 2014.

Is there a chance that starting from Oct 1st, the dates maynot retrogress or "U" for few more months.

Thanks,

Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Spec,

It's like quantum physics ... all possibilities exist. The question is which one of them will materialize. I will bet on dates not retrogressing.

p.s. - I always enjoy your posts Spec. I think you know that .... but reiteration can't hurt!

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Q,

Never a truer word spoken!

Ditto about your posts.

We may hold some different views, but I have always said that is a good thing and I mean it. We look at things from different perspectives and it allows different ways to reach a prediction.

I've probably been at this too long. I realize my style can sound rather argumentative. No, does sound argumentative! I can't change that - I am what I am and this year has been the worst to date for information from official and semi-official sources. It is frustrating.

I do think it is a shame if that results in some people not posting their own predictions. For that, I do apologize.

Onwards and Upwards.

Dec2007,

if you read earlier posts on Qeseh/Spec, they are saying chances of PD date retrogressing is very slim after Oct1st(i.e. Sept VB). Spec, also mentioned the reason onto why we had almost no moment in EB2I PD movement from the begining of this year. What I understand from Qeseh earlier post that date will not retrogress less than Jan-2008. If that is the case you will have some time to resolve your RFE and get greened, you must be happy that you are in better state than me, I have NOV2007 PD and waiting to file I485 this time.:)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by dec2007

Spec,

This is what I'm assuming. Below PD date movements are just randomly picked to just state my question.

Bulletin that will be released in July 1st week (effective August 1st) : August 1, 2007
Bulletin that will be released in August 1st week ( effective Sep 1st) : Jan 1, 2008
Bulletin that will be released in September 1st week ( effective Oct 1st) : June 2006 or "U"

Now in above scenario, since my PD is Dec 31, 2007. I will have only one month (Sep 1st - Sep 30th) to be greened. Correct? Otherwise I have to wait almost until next SO season aka July 2014.

Is there a chance that starting from Oct 1st, the dates maynot retrogress or "U" for few more months.

Thanks,

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by dec2007

Spec,

This is what I'm assuming. Below PD date movements are just randomly picked to just state my question.

Bulletin that will be released in July 1st week (effective August 1st) : August 1, 2007
Bulletin that will be released in August 1st week ( effective Sep 1st) : Jan 1, 2008
Bulletin that will be released in September 1st week ( effective Oct 1st) : June 2006 or "U"

Now in above scenario, since my PD is Dec 31, 2007. I will have only one month (Sep 1st - Sep 30th) to be greened. Correct? Otherwise I have to wait almost until next SO season aka July 2014.

Is there a chance that starting from Oct 1st, the dates maynot retrogress or "U" for few more months.

Thanks,

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dec2007,

For future reference, most people refer to the VB by the month it takes effect, so it is simpler just to say August VB, September VB, October VB etc. It also saves some typing. :)

Using the dates you have chosen, yes you are only likely to have one month to be approved before dates retrogress before your PD in the October VB. I know Q feels otherwise. It would be a lottery for you - I can't put it any other way.

In many ways, I hope he sets the July VB at 01JAN07.

CO has always been saying that he has no idea of porting numbers. IF he moved the date to 01JAN07 in the July VB, he would get a much better idea of the porting numbers. That would be helpful for future reference and might allow for (more accurate) quarterly movement in future years.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Using the dates you have chosen, yes you are only likely to have one month to be approved before dates retrogress before your PD in the October VB. I know Q feels otherwise. It would be a lottery for you - I can't put it any other way.

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I only said dates wont retro prior to Q1 2008 come Oct 2013. If GC's case is preadjudicated he should expect a GC by 20th Sep 2013. If he files after date become current - then it should take about 4 months.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

I only said dates wont retro prior to Q1 2008 come Oct 2013. If GC's case is preadjudicated he should expect a GC by 20th Sep 2013. If he files after date become current - then it should take about 4 months.

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Q, Spec others,

By Q1 of 2008 are you guys saying jan, feb or march? I have my pd in feb.

I sincerely hope the dates cross well in 2008. Five+ years and waiting, kind of tired keeping track.
Druv

Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

I only said dates wont retro prior to Q1 2008 come Oct 2013. If GC's case is preadjudicated he should expect a GC by 20th Sep 2013. If he files after date become current - then it should take about 4 months.

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Q,

To be clear, the reason I said it will be a lottery is that more cases will be Current in September than there are visas available. Often numbers run out after about 2 weeks of September.

a) It is then luck of the draw whether a case is picked up before visa numbers run out.

b) Even if it is picked up and was previously pre-adjudicated, a RFE can still be issued, which would kill any chance of approval in FY2013.

I think (a) is the greater danger.

To be sure, as lotteries go, the odds are quite good for a clean case, but not a certainty. Quantum Uncertainty again!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Q,

To be clear, the reason I said it will be a lottery is that more cases will be Current in September than there are visas available. Often numbers run out after about 2 weeks of September.

a) It is then luck of the draw whether a case is picked up before visa numbers run out.

b) Even if it is picked up and was previously pre-adjudicated, a RFE can still be issued, which would kill any chance of approval in FY2013.

I think (a) is the greater danger.

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Spec - I think what you mean is that --- CO will try to overshoot in order not to waste visas and as a result some people may not get GC.

Now that is certainly possible. However regardless of that becoming reality or not - I guarantee you that it won't be lottery. Why? Because of the large preadjudicated backlog which according to the law must be dealt with in order of priority date. So it won't be lottery.

RFE and all is reality only for a very small number of cases when things are at this stage. In fact if there was to be an RFE on those cases then it should've already been issued.

Third - and going back to the topic of overshooting. I would believe that CO has such a great visibility and understanding now of how many visas he is left with and how much ready backlog he has .... that he can move dates precisely to a point where he doesn't have to waste visa nor leave a large number of people high and dry.

Would you agree Spec?

p.s. - As per earlier question that druvraj raised ... to be clear - none of us know for sure. I would say somewhere in Q1 the dates should settle.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Spec - I think what you mean is that --- CO will try to overshoot in order not to waste visas and as a result some people may not get GC.

Now that is certainly possible. However regardless of that becoming reality or not - I guarantee you that it won't be lottery. Why? Because of the large preadjudicated backlog which according to the law must be dealt with in order of priority date. So it won't be lottery.

RFE and all is reality only for a very small number of cases when things are at this stage. In fact if there was to be an RFE on those cases then it should've already been issued.

Third - and going back to the topic of overshooting. I would believe that CO has such a great visibility and understanding now of how many visas he is left with and how much ready backlog he has .... that he can move dates precisely to a point where he doesn't have to waste visa nor leave a large number of people high and dry.

Would you agree Spec?

p.s. - As per earlier question that druvraj raised ... to be clear - none of us know for sure. I would say somewhere in Q1 the dates should settle.

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Q,
I was not aware of the rule that preadjudicated applications needs to be processed as per PD. thanks for info.
Anyways, when I spoke to visa officer on my Infopass appointment, he said my app is preadjudicated.

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Originally Posted by NOV2007

Dec2007,

if you read earlier posts on Qeseh/Spec, they are saying chances of PD date retrogressing is very slim after Oct1st(i.e. Sept VB). Spec, also mentioned the reason onto why we had almost no moment in EB2I PD movement from the begining of this year. What I understand from Qeseh earlier post that date will not retrogress less than Jan-2008. If that is the case you will have some time to resolve your RFE and get greened, you must be happy that you are in better state than me, I have NOV2007 PD and waiting to file I485 this time.:)

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Nov2007, I can understand your situation. Hang in there my friend...hope for the best.

Next Friday will answer lot of questions.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by dec2007

Q,
I was not aware of the rule that preadjudicated applications needs to be processed as per PD. thanks for info.
Anyways, when I spoke to visa officer on my Infopass appointment, he said my app is preadjudicated.

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How to take infopass appointment to know if my application is pre-adjudicated, I have Nov 2007 EB2I PD and my response to RFE received in oct 2007, when I raised SR i got the reply that the application cannot be processed further b'cos of lack of visas (PD not current) .

I think retrogression most likely might happen next fiscal yr as there is no way CO would know that the amount of porting will not be more than the EB2I regular quota.
next year there might be very little FB spillover (like previous yrs), they just won't know about EB2WW and EB1 usage until atleast 6 months into the fiscal yr.

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Originally Posted by indiani

How to take infopass appointment to know if my application is pre-adjudicated, I have Nov 2007 EB2I PD and my response to RFE received in oct 2007, when I raised SR i got the reply that the application cannot be processed further b'cos of lack of visas (PD not current) .

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http://infopass.uscis.gov/

You can ask him if it is preadjudicated.

Yes dec2007 - that is the law that any extra visas should be allocated in order of PD for all eligible 485s.

But even otherwise for quota visas - same is true for all applications that fall under quota and are eligible for a visa.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by dec2007

Q,
I was not aware of the rule that preadjudicated applications needs to be processed as per PD. thanks for info.
Anyways, when I spoke to visa officer on my Infopass appointment, he said my app is preadjudicated.

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Gurus
I have a stupid question. The spike we saw in EB2Row during the last few months of last FY...does that have anything to do with EB2 ROWers panicking about the chances of HR3012 passing ?

If so, is there a chance for a similar pattern this FY now that CIR is about to go onto the senate floor in two weeks?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by dec2007

http://infopass.uscis.gov/

You can ask him if it is preadjudicated.

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I already opened SR once and got reply.
here is the option that I might have to choose when I opned the site

"Case Services follow-up appointment - If it has been over 45 days since you contacted NCSC and have not received a response to your inquiry. You must bring the Service Request ID Number related to your inquiry to the appointment. "


But as I already received the response from them in email, is there any risk of choosing this option or else did u choose any other option?

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Originally Posted by willywonka

Gurus
I have a stupid question. The spike we saw in EB2Row during the last few months of last FY...does that have anything to do with EB2 ROWers panicking about the chances of HR3012 passing ?

If so, is there a chance for a similar pattern this FY now that CIR is about to go onto the senate floor in two weeks?

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No, the spike is due to retrogression of EB2WW, whether they panick or not wouldnt changed the fact that everyone would have applied at the earliet oppurtunity.

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Originally Posted by indiani

No, the spike is due to retrogression of EB2WW, whether they panick or not wouldnt changed the fact that everyone would have applied at the earliet oppurtunity.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by willywonka

Gurus
I have a stupid question. The spike we saw in EB2Row during the last few months of last FY...does that have anything to do with EB2 ROWers panicking about the chances of HR3012 passing ?

If so, is there a chance for a similar pattern this FY now that CIR is about to go onto the senate floor in two weeks?

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There was no spike per se. The retrogression was due to over allocation to EB2IC resulting in insufficient numbers for EB2ROW. There might have been some added urgency but not high enough to point to that as a factor.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Matt,


My biggest doubt remains on how many visas EB1 will use. I currently have about a 4k range on that, which can make a big difference.

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Spec,
My worse case number for EB1 is 38K and best case is 33.5K. My Max number for visa issued for EB1 for first quarter is 11.3K and second quarter is 9.1K. I expect further drops in quarter III and quarter ** .

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Originally Posted by MATT2012

Spec,
My worse case number for EB1 is 38K and best case is 33.5K. My Max number for visa issued for EB1 for first quarter is 11.3K and second quarter is 9.1K. I expect further drops in quarter III and quarter ** .

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Matt,

Thanks for sharing.

Spookily, my worst case figure for the first half is also 20.4k.

Like you, I don't expect that to repeat in H2 and my range is also 34-38k.

Its reassuring to know that with the same data, you have arrived at the same conclusion.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Matt,

Thanks for sharing.

Spookily, my worst case figure for the first half is also 20.4k.

Like you, I don't expect that to repeat in H2 and my range is also 34-38k.

Its reassuring to know that with the same data, you have arrived at the same conclusion.

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Spec,

I was looking at your cumulative numbers for EB2WW(as thats one category keeping me awake at night) and see that theres a chance that the numbers may end at 39K. so till end of may you have 27K. Last 4 months have seen 12 k approvals . So if current trend continues numbers may not cross 40K. Lets hope for that.

One question I had asked you earlier and you may or may not have insight - FY 2008 EB2WW had 48K approvals. I was trying to understand why that would have happened and I think that along with retrogression in 2007 another reason could be that DOL churned out stuck labor approvals for the past several years and all those must have been handled in 2008. Your thoughts? Just trying to analyse if that can happen again this year.

with only 9 days to go for the much anticipated July bulletin, if the dates don't move to atleast
jan 2007, then we might be facing perhaps a catastrophic situation where the CO might just waste visas or somehow there is data which almost none of us are aware of .
Even though remote possibility of making a 2 step movement ( like spec described before) of one major movements in august bulletin followed by some adjustment in september is possible, I highly doubt thats going to happen. (if that were to happen may be the CO will give in the predictions of july bulletin).
In short July bulletin is make or break for most of our hopes of getting GC.

with DD 7925 prior to Jan 2008 and possibility of additional Demand of porters being as high as 5K, is it possible that the dates might never reach 2008., Pls don't consider this as my prediction but somehow this appears to be in the list of possibilities at this time.

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Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000

Spec,

I was looking at your cumulative numbers for EB2WW(as thats one category keeping me awake at night) and see that theres a chance that the numbers may end at 39K. so till end of may you have 27K. Last 4 months have seen 12 k approvals . So if current trend continues numbers may not cross 40K. Lets hope for that.

One question I had asked you earlier and you may or may not have insight - FY 2008 EB2WW had 48K approvals. I was trying to understand why that would have happened and I think that along with retrogression in 2007 another reason could be that DOL churned out stuck labor approvals for the past several years and all those must have been handled in 2008. Your thoughts? Just trying to analyse if that can happen again this year.

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sbhagwat2000,

If you are talking about the figures in FACTS & DATA, those cumulative figures are for ROW, not WW. They do not include Mexico or Philippines. The 4 month period includes months when the backlog was still being processed. I don't belive EB2-ROW will reach anywhere near to 40k, but EB2-WW might due to high EB2-P usage.

I think the very high figure in FY2008 was a spike that reflected the consequences of the LC backlog reduction effort that was set up. This resulted in a large number of long delayed LC applications (for all Countries) finally being Certified and I-140/I-485 being submitted. Pre FY2007, the EB2-WW approval numbers were low - that was probably artificial due to the very slow processing rate for LC at that time. That is not a factor anymore and FY2008 was a "catch up" year.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

sbhagwat2000,

If you are talking about the figures in FACTS & DATA, those cumulative figures are for ROW, not WW. They do not include Mexico or Philippines. The 4 month period includes months when the backlog was still being processed. I don't belive EB2-ROW will reach anywhere near to 40k, but EB2-WW might due to high EB2-P usage.

I think the very high figure in FY2008 was a spike that reflected the consequences of the LC backlog reduction effort that was set up. This resulted in a large number of long delayed LC applications (for all Countries) finally being Certified and I-140/I-485 being submitted. Pre FY2007, the EB2-WW approval numbers were low - that was probably artificial due to the very slow processing rate for LC at that time. That is not a factor anymore and FY2008 was a "catch up" year.

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Thanks for the Clarification. I am becoming more optimistic now of some movement in July bulletin. The only reason it will not move is CO is unclear about EB2 WW usage. Lets hope and pray for some movement - 8 more days to go

I just saw spec's predictions on page 1, i think even though he has mentioned SO of 0 from EB2WW, I suspect there might be 1-2K , at the sametime EB1 might not give 10K , in the end total SO might not change dramatically.
However on the update in april the range was quite large of 8-17K and if at all it turns out to be dramatically short on the lower end of the spectrum then we are dealing with a nightmare scenario.
Anyway we look at it, it is perhaps becoming the most awaiting bulletin ever.

From the past, whenever there were massive FB SO, the final SOFAD EB2IC received were also huge - will that be the case this year too? Any thoughts?

I know there will be considerable amount of SOFAD this year for EB2IC, but will CO use that efficiently by moving dates in July - even one or two weeks should be fine - but I don't want to see that frustrating 1-Sep-04 date again - the worst date apart from the other September date which we all would like to forget about (the one that happened in 2001)...

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Originally Posted by geeaarpee

From the past, whenever there were massive FB SO, the final SOFAD EB2IC received were also huge - will that be the case this year too? Any thoughts?

I know there will be considerable amount of SOFAD this year for EB2IC, but will CO use that efficiently by moving dates in July - even one or two weeks should be fine - but I don't want to see that frustrating 1-Sep-04 date again - the worst date apart from the other September date which we all would like to forget about (the one that happened in 2001)...

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Even though having huge FB spillover is good news, the increased EB2WW and EB1 demands are the mitigating factors, so Its not easy to conclude just with previous FB spillovers and movements.

If july bulletin doesnt show movement atleast until summer 2007, I am planning to use AC21 , my question is can i just send AC21 letter from future employer even though I dont have any intent/plan to join them until GC is approved? I want to stay unemployed until GC.

even though this is the predictions thread, I didnt know how to look for AC21 thread (not sure if there is one)

An interesting article about Eb5 visas.

http://usa-green-card.com/blog/index...ookieSupport=1

Some important take aways -

1. Approvals have slowed this year because of fraud

2. If you look at the graphs in the article - max applications were made in 2011 which resulted in more approvals in 2012. But in 2012 itself applications were lower

Hopefully all this results in a surprise from EB5

Quote:

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Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000

An interesting article about Eb5 visas.

http://usa-green-card.com/blog/index...ookieSupport=1

Some important take aways -

1. Approvals have slowed this year because of fraud

2. If you look at the graphs in the article - max applications were made in 2011 which resulted in more approvals in 2012. But in 2012 itself applications were lower

Hopefully all this results in a surprise from EB5

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Thanks for the article, very informative.
This fiscal year at some point CO said that he is thinking about setting up a cut off date for EB5C but he changed his mind as the applications levelled off. even though not all applications are approved the same year, good percentage of them are, as you know its a temporary card for 2 years like the marriage greencard.

Unfortunately we just dont have a concrete number as to how many GC's are given away this fiscal year.

Unlike many who said there could be zero SO form EB5, i think there might be upto 2K.

overall there are so many unknowns at this point, instead of spending tireless amounts of time crunching everything, its better to wait for atleast July bulletin, until then I would rather prepare for bad news and make back up plans.

Gurus - I have a question - is cross-chargeability a reason for high EB2/3Row porting - if that's the case, is it being reflected in EB2/3I demand or inventory?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000

An interesting article about Eb5 visas.

http://usa-green-card.com/blog/index...ookieSupport=1

Some important take aways -

1. Approvals have slowed this year because of fraud

2. If you look at the graphs in the article - max applications were made in 2011 which resulted in more approvals in 2012. But in 2012 itself applications were lower

Hopefully all this results in a surprise from EB5

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That's not quite correct. The description in the article is slightly misleading.

Step 1 refers to I-526. Max I-526 applications (which leads to use of EB5 visas after approval at 2.9 per I-526 approval) was in 2012.

Receipts in the first half of FY2013 are the same as the last half of FY2012 and 18.5% higher than the corresponding period in FY2012, but there are hints of a small reduction happening.

Step 2 refers to I-829. Max I-829 applications (to remove conditions on permanent residency after 2 years) was in 2011. The article says why that might have been so. The result of I-829 does not impact EB5 visa use. It decides whether the people's Conditional Permanent Residency is made permanent.

The figures match those already published.

I agree with the article that EB5 is going through a difficult time and it may lead to a reduction in expected approvals. I have mentioned this previously. Expected approvals would have been a figure in excess of the original 10k allocated, hence the talk of retrogression. It remains to be seen what the impact might be.