Printable View
T,
Wouldn't that be highly unlikely? because anyone who filed last month needs to go through fingerprints etc. right? And wouldn't that mean the processing time of 485 to be about a month which is not realistic?
Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
I don't think it will be zero. As CO wants to play safe game by having some documentarily qualified IC demand. Otherwise he would be questioned why he did not open the doors earlier.
A lot of people in that group have had FP done. Some PWMB cases in the past have been approved in 2 months. So at this rate we might see some pwmb approvals at the end of this month.Quote:
Originally Posted by gc0907
If he indeed respecting the move and any PWMB are not qualified in 2 months yet, this indeed may come true, at least ending towards 0.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
Honestly guys , what's cooking, what the heck is going on.
long time back, I clearly remmber, bieber had said that if people don't apply initially, they may get cheated to think very few applications, and open floodgates.Quote:
Originally Posted by pdmay2008
I think its not to estimate total number of applications, but maybe to make sure, that the trend they are expecting is holding. for example, if they receive 12k applications from Nov 1st to 10th, and their expectation for the total move was 10k in Nov VB, and 10k in Dec VB, then they may extrapolate that the Nov VB will in fact be getting them closer to 15k, and they only need 5k from Dec VB.
Nishanth
it's scary you remember that :)
I think there is a window of 3-4 months that good things happen and stall everything for may be an year or two, it's highly unlikely that they can gauge the exact demand based on filings (Teddy, how long it took you get the receipt number for 485), I don't even think they look at that number, based on CO words it looks like all it matters for him is documentarily qualified demand at this point, I have no clue how 8500+ visas are getting allocated in new fy already
If he goes by demand data, with these many approvals there will be very less demand left to process. All these newly filed cases from Nov 1 are not considered under demand. Future demand + Left Over Demand+Buffer > Available VISA Numbers. This is what he should think now.Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
bieber, my scary memory, common sense, survival instinct, cut copy n paste: this has shaped up my professional growth so far. Most of the stuff I did in engineering can be put to trash.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bieber
Bieber I just filed on Nov 1st don't have anything yet. The current trend does point to a consumption of 6K last month and 2.5K this month if no PWMB’s get approved. Basically looks like all preadjudicated cases are done. What remains is pwmb for last month and Nov filers. I think they must be gauging the numbers at the lockboxes the receipts come later; most likely they will get 80% of the applications by Nov 10th.Quote:
Originally Posted by bieber
Teddy,Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
If they follow QSP then, based on 27% Q1 limit, say they have 8.1k for Oct (I am only counting EB1+EB2+EB5), let say 7.0k allocated for AOS(USCIS) and 1.1k to CP(DOS).
On day one most likely USCIS know documentarily qualified EB1/EB2 ROWMP/EB5 demand for that month, so they can apply other wise unused(for that month) to most retrogressed country by following SOFAD.
They could do the same for a week/day.
What's the source of this information?Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
Veni, thanks, this seems to be a very rational explanation. Also I believe now that the inventory shows even those I485 cases (Concurrent filing) where I140 is not approved otherwise if the I140 were to be approved for these there would be absolutely no reason not to approve them. I140 is the bottleneck for EB2 ROW and EB1. Good luck to you, you maybe greened later this month itself or worst case before the end of the year.Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Agree,Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Thank you and let's hope USCIS is following QSP!
guys, can then this theory in old post have a chance of being correct. we may ignore the EB4 and EB5 from it if you don't think he wants to jump gun on that.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
After seeing approvals of PDs July 15 2007 +++++ , I am assuming so .Quote:
Originally Posted by iamdeb
You are right with this one. That is the reason, I was thinking(assuming) that CO might have allocated visas for these apps even before FY 2012 commenced. But again, the numbers don't support the assumption, plus there is no reason for CO to not move the dates in September itself if he was prepared for this movement.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
I can completely agree and relate to your statement :) Only thing that I may add is, my engineering years taught me the first three both in theory and practice:)
Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
may be the it's not about what you learn in engineering, it could be about how you learned it, you graduated from art of learning which is helping you now :)Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
An old prof who was a tech head in a small firm said
Engineering is u learn how to learn !!
Quote:
Originally Posted by bieber
Did you see any of the PWMB's getting approved?
Quote:
Originally Posted by qblogfan
Quote:
Originally Posted by bieber
credit due where it is. You guys are eye openers :)Quote:
Originally Posted by leo07
yes, it was a tough grind. glad don't have to study anymore...
Nishant,Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
More or less we are re-iterating the same theory.
If QSP is correct then this could be very well!
I think the only ones who would claim they are using the knowleged they gained during their college would be scientists and researchers.
Rest of the others mainly gain knowledge after they enter the industry.
Quote:
Originally Posted by cbpds1
Teddy,
Given all this data, when do you expect your green card in hand seeing as you filed in November?
agreed, this is not anything I or anyone invented. But at least the monthly application of it, that's what me and Teddy talked about sometime back, and today you kind of hinted or agreed upon.
This is amazing if true. I hope he continues.
Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
The current events are simply amazing. However couple of things still needs to happen. The numbers are being allocated like the free flow captain cook salt (Remember the ad from our school days). For all non Indian folks, Tata salt had a monopoly however it would get damped up, then this brand came up which would not dampen that easily, right now looks like free flow is happening to the visa numbers.Quote:
Originally Posted by ram_40001
- PWMB batch from Oct is still waiting we may start to see their approvals later this month at the current rate. The dates if at all they retrogress should not go behind Aug 15th as there is nobody left there except for the PWMB's now.
- The Nov batch is actually far bigger I believe it’s a little early to say how this would work out unless we see the previous batch PWMB's being approved.
Good luck to all.
So looking at approval news finally coming in today, seems like the "allocation" mumbo jumbo has been dealt with by CO, and the demand data must be ready to upload on monday.
next it's anyone's guess how long he wants to wait before deciding on Dec VB.
I do not think so CO will ever try to game the system or do anything out of box unless he has approval from higher-ups. There is already some controversy about if DOS should even be allocated right to issue visas. As per HSA Act of 2002, DHS was supposed to have final approval over visa issuance and DOS was just suppose to work on their recommendation. In 2003, consensus was achieved among two departments and power were bestowed on DOS. After Dec 2009 Xmas plot, this was relooked into if DOS should be issuing visa numbers and is still in radar of many congress members. So CO will be careful about making any such exceptions which are against law that can ultimately cost him his job, as no visa issuance power with DOS means no job for him.Quote:
Originally Posted by leo07
If any one interested they should read this article - http://www.ieeeusa.org/policy/eyeonw...sasecurity.pdf
This article will also tell you how failed Dec 2009 XMas Plot to attack NW airline changed some bestowed powers that consular officers now have in consulate abroad. This is were all 221(g) started happening. Now officers at consulate can reverse any approvals made through USCIS that too with no question asked.
it takes USCIS at least 10-14 days to sort things out and send a receipt number, so until that time there is no way they can communicate to the DOS/CO about demand for NOV, also from statements attributed to the CO, it seems he really does not care what the numbers are and will advance the dates anyways.
That makes it very surprising, they did not release the VB tonight, should we read anything to it?
has anybody seen an overnight posting of VB.... or I am just being too desperate ?
It has not happened before. So take that off your mind and enjoy the weekend. you may get the GC next month, but you will not get the weekend that you will lose thinking about it :)
Not on DOS website but i have in the past on Mumbai Consulate website (its morning over there) before DOS website. But I do not expect it tonight because is it already Saturday in India.Quote:
Originally Posted by doctorp
We will just have to wait till Monday.
Ron's tidbit:
http://www.immigration-information.c...76/index4.html
"Actually, they are hoping that the USCIS will do its job. More and more, in recent years, we have see cutoff dates advanced in order to qualify more CP applicants so that the State Department can step in and pick up the slack left by the USCIS. It is interesting that the U.S. Consulate in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico processes as many immigrant cases by itself as the USCIS processes EB AOS cases. Those particular consular cases are also much more time intensive because a very large percentage of them involve waivers. Think about it: One consular post, by itself, handles as many green card applications as the entire USCIS handles EB cases. That is the root cause of the problem. We don't need more USCIS adjudicators; we need adjudicators who are willing to work and who know what they are doing.
This should also serve as an object lesson for folks who are trying to decide which processing path to elect. Each summer, thousands of EB applicants with more recent priority dates get green cards through consular processing while AOS applicants with older priority dates continue to sit and wait. Why? Because the State Department has to advance cutoff dates in order to make up for the fact that the USCIS isn't adjudicating cases fast enough to exhaust the quota. The choice is either to give green cards to people with more recent dates and at least get them off the waiting list, or do nothing and see visa numbers wasted. "
Also as per his office, they have got lots of fee invoices for Q1 2008 guys, I have seen this info scattered all across his forum from para legals and his ownself. I don't know man, I think the VO that supposedly gives heads up to NVC, isn't CO the main guy at the VO, who is in charge of all this. The NVC theory may not be trash after all. Maybe we are putting in too much science behind all this. I dont completely agree with Ron, I mean visa numbers have not been wasted since last few years, but he continually points out a lack of trust between USCIS and DOS.
Very well said!!Quote:
Originally Posted by leo07
What are the chances that when we get a handle on post 07/07 EB2IC demand in future demand data, it will turn out to be smaller than the 2K per month we have been assuming based on PERM data? I am specifically talking about preponement of some demand to July and Aug 2007 to fit into the deadline and also the demand destruction of non-EAD folks that must have happened because of recession.
I have a feeling that late 2007 and 2008 EB2IC demand is going to show up lower than our anticipation. We will know more in a couple months.
BTW - I am coming around to the view espoused by Gurus that what we are seeing here is a monthly spillover (we can also think of it as a continuous spillover) regime within the 27% Category Quarter Cap.
In my opinion, we shall have to wait and see. No way out.
QSP also explains why china E2 demand reduction was less than india E2, bcoz any SO is in order of PD allocation. It also explains why dates are being moved together for both. I think CO will do a mix of QSP n annual SO. In intake mode, he will do QSP so that it keeps USCIS also happy coz it stops ppl from harassing them with Sr congress inquiry etc. but when he has his intake he will pause n let USCIS take over n decide what they want focus on, us or backlog.
Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
That's pretty much shooting from the hip. I do not believe DoS can or will do any such thing nor do i think that matters much.
Some of these lawyers have realized that "Prediction" is a good game to increase their own visibility. While sometimes they give us good insight into DoS USCIS, its better to ignore their analysis which is many times tainted with self interest.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
I'd have added "google" to that list :)Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
Will certainly nip the rising EB1C trend. Another one showing declining immigration trend:Quote:
Originally Posted by ravisekhar
http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources...s-2011-sep.pdf
At this point our only problem is 140 backlog, but if new incoming declines it may very well be a balancing act and days of 30k SOFAD show signs of lingering. Another black horse is demand density, will it be 2k, 2.5k or 3k.